Reposting page 20 with a few additions just making a summary post
No need to read 10 pages when you can just read 1 long post
Also note chkgk post on page 29
AM will not be beaten that easily
The competition may be heating up but I don't trust their rivals production capabilities just yet
They are worth noting but unless a product delivers it's just speculation.
Even if a product delivers and is shipped we don't have the information on Friedcats Gen 2 yet
We just know it will blow the current market on ASIC's.
I wouldn't really worry about them being under-powered to the competition until I know the true specs
Worth guessing at but it's not known yet.
They are maintaining the hash rate as well
The more units they produce the more demand and the market will dictate price.
We know they can produce but the question is how much do people want to buy with the knowledge they do deliver and won't make you wait a year or two XD.
A less risky investment than just having mining units
Plus Competition costs to produce hardware are very DAMN important
There will only ever be 400,000 shares and they don't plan on increasing that quantity
Perhaps a stock split but the pass-thrus do that already
So whats not sent to the dividend everyday grows the equity in the company
For everyday they have the monopoly that equity will grow a bit
Well we need a financial statement to know how much but it's not as important as seeing results
BFL is not real until they do deliver more than the rare one comparing unicorns to horses, BFL is an accumulate bitcoin scheme that will deliver products when the price of mining with their own units becomes unprofitable while sending out the rare unit now and then to have more people buy into this scheme and in the meantime get to hold the money for free. As can be seen by the 100 dollar upgrade from 5 to 7 G/H
They will then announce more powerful units and toss the old ones away genius.
Pay peanuts, and you get monkeys.
If competition finally appears
Who's to say an Oligopoly doesn't form bwhahahaa
I heard the same thing in April, then May, then June, and now July, and now by the end of the year. When will this competition arrive, again?
People will choose ASICminer as they can be shareholders and get a part of the dividend from buying hardware
Margin is King
If you make super powerful units but make very little from selling them but get a lot of demand or you make simple units using considered old technology and sell a modest amount.
In the end the profits could easily be the same and what matters is simply selling over the margin no matter how much competition their is an ASICMINER holds a competitive advantage on that.
In Friedcat we Trust
Additions
It is not overpriced until real competition proves it can compete with ASICMINER even with these calculations while competitors are moving they are not at a scale large enough to directly affect the share price.
Asicminer sells units and maintains the network hash rate what competitors promise is just imaginary until they can actually do so
Talk has and official value of a great fat 0
Generating money now is more profitable than having something that will not deliver for a year
I was checking the math and your argument on BFL unit presupposes the difference of mining during that one year with current tech
Vs Mining 1 year from now at the predicted difficulty using BFL.
In that vein just buying the equivalent in USB sticks to mine that one year your waiting would be as profitable
If other companies start shipping enough difficulty will also rise faster so first mover edge on competition is lower so its a deadly spiral of difficulty
Think it's cheap now lets see in one year what the real difficulty is
(You could hold some PMB bonds
and save some money on buying these crud units from BFL with its fixed hashing power and save some electricity costs
)
ASICMINER has a history of shipping and no false promises.
Not many other companies do
Most investors have considered it too (particularly those with more than "half a brain"), and that it is priced into the share price at the moment. There's no surprise that there will be competition. But AM has enormous competitive advantages - they won't be able to sell at 50 BTC anymore, but their process (130 nm) is most likely cheaper than all competitors, giving them better profit margins on their products.
This will become increasingly important if competition grows
The current monopoly-situation will eventually end, but AM has everything it takes to compete head-on with the competitors (and win) when they eventually arrive.
They have the experience and people know they ship. So I doubt they'll have trouble selling new hardware.
Reputation is very important
The next ASIC generation will come, shall it be KNC, Avalon or ASICMINER generation 2.
History showed us, what they are capable of doing and I have no reason to believe things will change fundamentally soon.
In addition
More competition doesn't necessary lead to reduced hardware profits for ASICminer
If AM sold 1000 blades then the market is 1000 miners a pop i think the demand was much larger than what AM could cover and could absorb more mners than were actually sold.
The margin is what is important
A competitive market with lower prices and revenue would drive the sales way up for AM too
That and AM can ramp up it's production rapidly even on fairly conservative estimates at a cheaper cost due to it's location
ASICMINER
Avalon
BFL
KnC
BitFury
Bitgarden
AMC
All of those companies could easily match each others hash rate once they have a working ASIC and we're bound to see a few more in the future. I believe we'll see AM settle at around 10-15% of the network share.
I'll believe it when I see it this becomes increasing harder the higher difficulty rises
Easier to make a dent when your first than after especially if your adding to the difficulty each time too
However if several of them are capable of doing so we got what Friedcat promised us
It will take time to see this occur so the pattern will be seen meaning the share price will adjust accordingly during that transition
The share price factors in this perceived risk as the yields are still very attractive
Could you show how you calculate a fair share price based on your assumptions
I could but it's been done if you do your research no need to teach everything to naive investors who don't attempt their own research
That said
I will say at
0.03376440 /share the yield is 26.48% Based on dividend's from May 15 to now
You can raise the share price exponentially to determine yield at any given share price
But please do not assume AM has a share price of 0 in a year that would be a bit strange if you compare it to mining.
