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Author Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread  (Read 808627 times)
Mabsark
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June 22, 2013, 08:47:06 PM
 #421

I believe we'll see AM settle at around 10-15% of the network share.

funny, that's exactly what Friedcat promised...

Then why is everyone saying 25%?
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velacreations (OP)
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June 22, 2013, 08:49:25 PM
 #422

I consider anything vaporware when it takes a year to receive your order.  Meanwhile, they promote 2 weeks.

Also, mining with your order in the meantime... doesn't add a lot of credibility.

velacreations (OP)
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June 22, 2013, 08:49:55 PM
 #423

I believe we'll see AM settle at around 10-15% of the network share.

funny, that's exactly what Friedcat promised...

Then why is everyone saying 25%?

because that is what he delivered.  He tends to over-deliver.

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June 22, 2013, 08:52:58 PM
 #424

I believe we'll see AM settle at around 10-15% of the network share.

funny, that's exactly what Friedcat promised...

Then why is everyone saying 25%?

If you really worry about AM , then you can sell your shares, that is your decision.

velacreations (OP)
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June 22, 2013, 08:53:33 PM
 #425

+1, This what I want to convinced, eventually this race will become the race of production cost and operating cost!
And assume that AM has 6 months experience and also more reserved fund, this give them more possibility to win the race~~
How many BTC that totally accumulated in their account??  should be a huge amount..
All those reserved BTC will give AM extra power to win this race when they need.. as will as the reputation of FriedCat, I think this name can essay financing lot of BTC to invest in his new project than any other new competitor over BITCOIN community.
 

yeah, their war chest is certainly bigger than any competitor's.

but, what interests me is their ability to produce large amount of hardware for several months ahead of any competitor.  That counts for a lot in this game.

And, of course, people like to compare KNC promises to what AM is delivering now.  Why, I wonder?  Are you telling me that these same people won't buy in if AM drops to 2.9 right now?  HA!

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June 22, 2013, 08:54:21 PM
 #426

If you really worry about AM , then you can sell your shares, that is your decision.

he says we're all stupid for valuing AM at current share prices, so I'm sure he'll sell us his shares for 1.5, right?

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June 22, 2013, 09:01:18 PM
 #427

If you really worry about AM , then you can sell your shares, that is your decision.

he says we're all stupid for valuing AM at current share prices, so I'm sure he'll sell us his shares for 1.5, right?

1.5 ? this too bad for him...I will pay him 2.5....

He just ignored that AM is only companies doing hardware selling and mining at same time over all exchange.
Why the price of AM could that expensive? some part is due to its exclusive.

If those private companies really going to succeed than it probably the time all of us who invested in BITCOIN stocks are dead.

 AM is the only hope for us..this why we estimate it so much.
Rival
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June 22, 2013, 09:53:57 PM
 #428

If investors are using you as a yardstick to compare similar products you have become the de facto standard.

The value of this position is almost incalculable.
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June 22, 2013, 10:45:12 PM
 #429

It's my opinion that a lot of investors simply don't understand how mining works. If they did, then they would understand that AM hardware and shares are vastly overpriced.

Just like a lot of people paying silly money for mining bonds have found out, AM investors will come to the same realisation that share prices are currently way overpriced.

LISTEN AND LISTEN CAREFULLY. The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition. Here's a quick comparison:

AM Block Erupter Blade
10 Gh/s
50 BTC = 5,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
2 Mh/s per USD

KNC Jupiter
350 Gh/s
7,000 USD @ 100 USD/BTC
50 Mh/s per USD

It should be blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain that there's going to be a lot less income from hardware sales due to competition. That same competition will also decrease AM's share of the network hash rate.

AM share holders are going to get hit by a good dose of reality in the coming months. Perhaps then they will stop listening to idiots trying to flog them overpriced stuff and do the maths themselves.

What you are missing is the marginal production costs.  I would guess that now that they are masked out, the chips cost $10 a piece and the USB boards with heatsink (for example) cost another $10.  Current price is 2BTC.  There is a huge decrease in price that can be made and still be profitable.  As competitors come online only one thing will matter: who can source their chips and boards the fastest.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
velacreations (OP)
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June 22, 2013, 11:07:25 PM
 #430

What you are missing is the marginal production costs.  I would guess that now that they are masked out, the chips cost $10 a piece and the USB boards with heatsink (for example) cost another $10.  Current price is 2BTC.  There is a huge decrease in price that can be made and still be profitable.  As competitors come online only one thing will matter: who can source their chips and boards the fastest.

that's where having the facilities and experience of producing 300 TH rapidly actually counts for something.

notme
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June 22, 2013, 11:19:21 PM
 #431

What you are missing is the marginal production costs.  I would guess that now that they are masked out, the chips cost $10 a piece and the USB boards with heatsink (for example) cost another $10.  Current price is 2BTC.  There is a huge decrease in price that can be made and still be profitable.  As competitors come online only one thing will matter: who can source their chips and boards the fastest.

that's where having the facilities and experience of producing 300 TH rapidly actually counts for something.

Being located next to the production facilities doesn't hurt either.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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June 23, 2013, 01:50:51 AM
Last edit: June 23, 2013, 04:39:21 AM by freedomno1
 #432

AM will not be beaten that easily  Wink
Waits for Wednesday glad to see the conversations are still interesting

The competition may be heating up but I don't trust their rivals production capabilities just yet
They are worth noting but unless a product delivers it's just speculation.

Even if a product delivers and is shipped we don't have the information on Friedcats Gen 2 yet
We just know it will blow the current market on ASIC's.

I wouldn't really worry about them being under-powered to the competition until I know the true specs
Worth guessing at but it's not known yet.

They are maintaining the hash rate as well even with this new competition so they hedge either way
The more units they produce the more demand market will dictate price.
We know they can produce but the question is how much do people want to buy with the knowledge they do deliver and won't make you wait a year or two XD.

A less risky investment than just having mining units
Plus Competition costs to produce hardware are very DAMN important

Another point is their are only 400,000 shares and they don't plan on increasing that quantity
Perhaps a stock split but the pass-thrus do that already
So whats not sent to the dividend everyday grows the equity in the company  Wink

For everyday they have the monopoly that equity will grow a bit  Smiley
Well we need a financial statement to know how much

That said do not call BFL real until they do deliver more than the rare one, BFL could basically be said to be an accumulate bitcoin scheme that will deliver products when the price of mining with their own units becomes unprofitable while sending out the rare unit now and then to have more people buy into this scheme and in the meantime get to hold the money for free   Then announce more powerful units and toss the old ones away genius  

If the competition finally appears
Who's to say an Oligopoly doesn't form bwhahahaa

I heard the same thing in April, then May, then June, and now July, and now by the end of the year.  When will this competition arrive, again?
When it does when it does velacreations perhaps not till the end of time but at least for now their isn't any
That day will be a day we can diversify some shares and own a part of two hammers lol.

Unless they just become a delivery company in which case I can easily argue that if they are near the same power and prices
People will choose ASICminer as they can be shareholders and get a part of the dividend from buying hardware Smiley

Whats more important than the price is simply the DANG margin
If you make super powerful units but make very little from selling them but get a lot of demand or you make simple units using considered old technology and sell a modest amount.
In the end the profits could easily be the same and what matters is simply selling over the margin.

Friedcat over delivers or you could say hes a damn understates all the time XD
In Friedcat we Trust

Lol Eskimobob that belonged in ASIC not Sdice but quotes it for Smiley
(off topic)
Abu22, you understand that those happy days of BTC, where anyone can mine a coins with a CPU or GPU are gone forever.
Crowd driven, kumbaya singing, mining community days are getting replaced by ASIC/whatever miningfarms, run by few greedy fuckers who do everything to become the BTC "banks" of the future... oops... full circle and guess what, we are back where we started to run away from - world, where small gang of greedy scum is controlling your favorite coin. Those same greedy assholes will be setting the tx fees in the future where casual mining is non-existing.

Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
deltanine
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June 23, 2013, 03:26:31 AM
 #433



Of course, I know what you mean , you trying to say that AM would not change its price and its products standards?
The old blade is no more selling on the market, the only thing will make you assumption useful , is waiting util the new blade come out.
since before new blade come out , we do not know what will the spec be. It may be better than KNC ? if it does better than KNC , then the share price of AM will go up again at that time.
You can't post assumption like this if you did not know what exactly spec about the new blade.
It will caused missing lead investors, and seems not fair to AM.

No, that's the opposite of what I'm saying! AM will HAVE to change its pricing and products to be competitive otherwise it wouldn't sell any hardware at all.

It doesn't matter whether the new hardware is better than KnC or anyone else for that matter. All that matters is that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD. AM will have to sell its devices at a price which is competitive. If KnC is readily available that's 50 Mh/s for 1 USD. If BFL is readily available but KnC is not, then that'll be about 18 Mh/s per USD. Due to competition being available and AM having a limited supply of devices, profit from selling hardware can only go down.

Of course , sell hardware is one off deal ,you can't repeat it again and again with same product, if your competitor has improve their product's quality, but majority of AM's dividend is come from its mining process.  Drooped of hardware selling actually does not has huge impact on its share price.(It does ,but not as important as the percentage of whole network's hashrate)
My point here is you posted this assertion too earlier, because you still do not know does KNC has the ability to delivery the products as they promised, there are possibility they could be next BFL.

We can't tell whether KNC is next AM or BFL util September, We can't tell whether AM will invented worse or better product than KNC ,util FC posted out the new spec of the Blade.

Before that time, every assumption that taken absolute idealize would be same pointless.





[/quote]

It's great that you point this stuff out and all, but I think we are seeing future competition already priced into this stock.  With the type of dividend yield we are seeing the share price should be much higher.

I think future competition has been priced in for a long time, and then when it doesn't materialize AM shares jump in value.

Freedom is a state of mind, and then Bitcoin comes along.....
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June 23, 2013, 08:49:02 AM
 #434

Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:

Quote
The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.

I heard the same thing in April, then May, then June, and now July, and now by the end of the year.  When will this competition arrive, again?

+1

AM in the green & gold vs the others: http://youtu.be/fAADWfJO2qM?t=1m25s
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June 23, 2013, 08:51:41 AM
 #435

LOL
If ASICMINER can not earn additional income form hardware sales, it becomes a regular mining turd and we know what happens to those, when diff keeps going up. (or if you do not,  go and find out: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=241101.msg2555945)

Generating serious profit from selling hardware is the only thing that keeps it interesting as an investment.


While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
empoweoqwj
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June 23, 2013, 08:56:44 AM
 #436

LOL
If ASICMINER can not earn additional income form hardware sales, it becomes a regular mining turd and we know what happens to those, when diff keeps going up. (or if you do not,  go and find out: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=241101.msg2555945)

Generating serious profit from selling hardware is the only thing that keeps it interesting as an investment.



This thread is getting tedious very tedious very quickly ...

How is ASICMINER a "regular mining turd" prey tell? What outfit are you comparing them with?

Sounds to me like you haven't invested at all if you think hardware sales are what makes them interesting. Would that I be correct in guessing you don't own any shares?

As for "future competition being priced in", thats kind of difficult to do until you see actual results from competition, not promises and vaporware, because there are far more promises and vaporware than hardware in this business.
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June 23, 2013, 09:14:51 AM
 #437

LOL
If ASICMINER can not earn additional income form hardware sales, it becomes a regular mining turd and we know what happens to those, when diff keeps going up. (or if you do not,  go and find out: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=241101.msg2555945)

Generating serious profit from selling hardware is the only thing that keeps it interesting as an investment.



This thread is getting tedious very tedious very quickly ...

How is ASICMINER a "regular mining turd" prey tell? What outfit are you comparing them with?

Sounds to me like you haven't invested at all if you think hardware sales are what makes them interesting. Would that I be correct in guessing you don't own any shares?

As for "future competition being priced in", thats kind of difficult to do until you see actual results from competition, not promises and vaporware, because there are far more promises and vaporware than hardware in this business.

So you can rest easy, I do have shares. Not sure how not owning shares makes me understand it less but never mind.

I see you guys predicting future and current value of AM.
Who has seen AM's financial statements? Do you have access to AM's P/L, CF and balance sheet?
Can I have a copy please

While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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June 23, 2013, 12:58:26 PM
 #438

LOL
If ASICMINER can not earn additional income form hardware sales, it becomes a regular mining turd and we know what happens to those, when diff keeps going up. (or if you do not,  go and find out: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=241101.msg2555945)

Generating serious profit from selling hardware is the only thing that keeps it interesting as an investment.



As far as I understand, AM is very different from PMBs in that with PMB you own a fixed amount of hashpower, but with AM you have a share in company that builds itself more and more hashpower over time. So with PMB the profits per bond slides down inverse to difficulty, but with AM the profits per share are proportional to AM's network share, which they keep more or less constant. And they will manage to keep their network share constant until the competition gets really serious.

And on top of that, they also sell hardware.

Do not try and bend the spoon. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. There is no spoon. Then you'll see, that it is not the spoon that bends, it is only yourself.
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velacreations (OP)
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June 23, 2013, 02:26:17 PM
 #439

Hash rate is up, as is the share price.  Good morning to everyone!

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June 23, 2013, 07:33:54 PM
 #440

lol this thread is good, it helps keep am shares price lower for reinvestments into more shares, lets keep this up, rofl!
muahahaha

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