Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest

[byronbb]

I used a kelly criterion calculator here http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/

OK, I think I see why your numbers don't agree with mine.  I think it's optimal for the house to risk 1% of bankroll whatever the odds.

I think the calculator disagrees because you're telling it the edge is 1% for the house, but it's 1% for the player.  ie. the player loses 1% of everything they risk.  The house doesn't.

Consider the 1% chance-to-win game that pays out 99x to the player.

If the player plays 100 times, he expects to win once and lose 99 times.  When he wins, he wins 98 units, when he loses, he loses 1 unit.  Over the 100 trials he risks 100 units, wins 98 and loses 99, for a net loss of 1 unit, or 1%.  The player loses 1% of the total he risked.

From the house point of view, the house risks 98 units per trial, and wins 1 when they win.  In 100 trials they expect to win 99 times and lose once.  In total they risk 9800 units, loses 98 and wins 99 for a net profit of 1 unit, or just 0.0102% of risked amount.

Here's how I would use the tool for the 60% game:

Payout to the player is 1.65x, and he has a 60% chance to win.
From the house point of view, the house has a 40% chance to win, and wins 1.65/0.65 = 2.53846x.
Putting those numbers into the tool:



The tool tells the house to risk 1% of its bankroll on such a bet.

I think the numbers you're seeing are how much the player should risk of his bankroll *if* the edge was 1% in *his* favour.

Then why, if you run those numbers as you have, and then change the drop down from "win prob" to "edge" does it show an edge of 1.54% and not 1%?

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[mechs]

Dooglus' irresponsible advertising has ruined my life. J-D used to be a nice family place where we all just talked smacked about eachothers mothers and occasionally someone stuck a sparkler up their butt.  But then he permitted a webcam whore to advertise on the site.  I clicked the alluring banner ad but Ravin was not doing it for me, but then I found Brina: http://www.myfreecams.com/?baf=11771344#Brina_

Next thing I know I lost an hour of productivity watching her take a bath.  

Thank you Dooglus - now I am addicted to webcam whores:(  

What's next, linking us to Silk Road and getting me hooked on the crack?!

[dooglus]

Then why, if you run those numbers as you have, and then change the drop down from "win prob" to "edge" does it show an edge of 1.54% and not 1%?

Because while the player loses 1% of everything the player risks, the house wins 1.54% of everything the house risks.  See, the house wins the same amount as the player loses, but the house is paying out 1.65x, ie. the house is risking less than the player for the same return.

We advertise as having "1% house edge" because the player loses 1% of everything they risk.  But from the house point of view, some bets are better than others.

Consider the bet where the player has a 98% chance to win, and gets a payout of 1.010204x when they win.  It looks vastly different from the two sides:

From the player's point of view, every 100 times they play they can expect to lose 1 unit twice, and win 0.010204 units 98 times.  Total winnings: 1.  Total losses: 2.  Net loss: 1.  Total risked: 100.  Net loss = 1% of amount risked.  House edge = 1%.

But from the house point of view, the house is only risking 0.010204 units each time, for a total risk of 1.0204 units.  Net profit = 1, as above, so net profit = 98% of amount risked.

[infested999]

What's next, linking us to Silk Road and getting me hooked on the crack?!

And after that, advertising a auto-divest bot for a 7 BTC bounty.

[petrescuerz]

Just-Dice is experiencing a problem with deposits. Please be patient and your deposit will be credited once doog is up. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Deb

[arruah]

I'm worried. I deposited the deposit for 11 coins. 4 It has been confirmed in the network but the coin was not enrolled.
https://blockchain.info/address/1DWU5DvxJWfxEXhw1fd8QALzSDsNtJESxw

[arruah]

Now all is well. Thank you.

[imrer]

It sounds great!

[iANDROID]

It sounds great!

Doesn't only sound great.

[dooglus]

Just-Dice is experiencing a problem with deposits. Please be patient and your deposit will be credited once doog is up. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Deb

The same problem happened once before.  I think it happens when bitcoind restarts.  Last night I restarted it to upgrade from v0.8.3 to v0.8.4.  I'll fix the script so that it can tolerate bitcoind being temporarily down.

[Dabs]

Just-Dice is experiencing a problem with deposits. Please be patient and your deposit will be credited once doog is up. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Deb

The same problem happened once before.  I think it happens when bitcoind restarts.  Last night I restarted it to upgrade from v0.8.3 to v0.8.4.  I'll fix the script so that it can tolerate bitcoind being temporarily down.

Hi dooglus, I'm curious, can you PM or email me a quick summary of how you tie together your site and bitcoind? (Or post here if it's not top secret.) Do you just grab the latest version from sourceforge, compile it (or run the signed binary) and interface with that? I am curious about both the deposits and the withdrawals, and how there is a hot wallet and a cold wallet (that needs manual transactions.)

[BRules]

Dabs, for sure he is using the bitcoin json-rpc API:

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/API_reference_%28JSON-RPC%29

[templerunAI]

Someone please tell me the minimum requirements to chat on JustDice.com!

[b!z]

Someone please tell me the minimum requirements to chat on JustDice.com!

Login and chat.

[templerunAI]

Someone please tell me the minimum requirements to chat on JustDice.com!

Login and chat.

I mean, for new users.

[SpaceJelly]

Someone please tell me the minimum requirements to chat on JustDice.com!

Login and chat.

I mean, for new users.

Login and chat.

[organofcorti]

Someone please tell me the minimum requirements to chat on JustDice.com!

Login and chat.

I mean, for new users.

Login and chat.

I'm pretty sure you don't need to actually log in.

[Otoh]

doog disables chat posts for newbies overnights PST to prevent spammers I believe, he should be up in an hour or two, when you see him post I expect that you'll be able to as well then

[templerunAI]

Someone please tell me the minimum requirements to chat on JustDice.com!

Login and chat.

I mean, for new users.

Login and chat.

When I said something, there would be a reason to that.

Newbies are NOT able to chat (try opening JD in an incognito window). What are the minimum requirements to chat? That's what I am asking.

[Otoh]

hey doog, looks like you'll need a bigger 'wagered' window soon, the bets one could move left as it has an extra space, or the others move right a little, btw is there a promo for the 1 millionth BTC bet?