Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest

[thompsong89]

The answer seems to be 284 million rolls.

The question isn't:

"how many rolls do we need so that I have a >50% chance of seeing a streak of length L or longer",

or

"how many rolls do we need so that the expected longest streak is of length L".

The question is:

"we have seen N rolls, what is my chance of seeing a streak of length L or longer?"

Which is kind of the same thing, but in the opposite direction, and apparently much harder to calculate.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i545nMJFtALaiqaH8TTolcqBYj0DmnHr38Up0DElurM/edit#gid=1829191626

Solution for a streak of L = 28, for N rolls, in tab "L = 28". Add rows to increase N. Unfortunately sheets is limited to 400k rows. Perhaps another different program could use my formula to compute the answer for N = 357MM?

[dooglus]

June 20th marks the 1st birthday for Just-Dice.

To celebrate we're having a 2 BTC poker freeroll at SealsWithClubs for Just-Dice regulars old and new.

Log in to your regular account, and type /poker in the chat box to see if you qualify for a free ticket.

There's also a 0.5 bounty on the head of both doog and Deb - knock either of them out to claim your 0.5 BTC prize.

6pm PST | 9pm EST | 2am GMT | 3am CET

For chat moderators of both DD and JD there's a 2nd freeroll an hour later, with another 2 BTC prize pool and two more 0.5 BTC bounties.

See you there! 

[omahapoker]

dooglus, i respect you and what you mean to the bitcoin gambling world.

i'm rooting for JD as i bet yes that just-dice will make 600BTC for the month of June


https://www.betmoose.com/bet/justdice-june-investors


right now JD is at 230BTC profit for June.


I got a lot riding on this.  


600 BTC profit in may
821 BTC profit in april

[duke1839]

June 20th marks the 1st birthday for Just-Dice.

To celebrate we're having a 2 BTC poker freeroll at SealsWithClubs for Just-Dice regulars old and new.

Log in to your regular account, and type /poker in the chat box to see if you qualify for a free ticket.

There's also a 0.5 bounty on the head of both doog and Deb - knock either of them out to claim your 0.5 BTC prize.

6pm PST | 9pm EST | 2am GMT | 3am CET

For chat moderators of both DD and JD there's a 2nd freeroll an hour later, with another 2 BTC prize pool and two more 0.5 BTC bounties.

See you there! 

Thanks Doog!  I'm looking forward to it!

[itod]

June 20th marks the 1st birthday for Just-Dice.

To celebrate we're having a 2 BTC poker freeroll at SealsWithClubs for Just-Dice regulars old and new.

Log in to your regular account, and type /poker in the chat box to see if you qualify for a free ticket.

There's also a 0.5 bounty on the head of both doog and Deb - knock either of them out to claim your 0.5 BTC prize.

6pm PST | 9pm EST | 2am GMT | 3am CET

For chat moderators of both DD and JD there's a 2nd freeroll an hour later, with another 2 BTC prize pool and two more 0.5 BTC bounties.

See you there! 

Too bad I don't play poker. Maybe some game related to JD would be more appropriate for birthday? May I suggest something like "first user to win 1% bet after the birthday timestamp wins ..." something?

[shitaifan2013]

June 20th marks the 1st birthday for Just-Dice.

To celebrate we're having a 2 BTC poker freeroll at SealsWithClubs for Just-Dice regulars old and new.

Log in to your regular account, and type /poker in the chat box to see if you qualify for a free ticket.

There's also a 0.5 bounty on the head of both doog and Deb - knock either of them out to claim your 0.5 BTC prize.

6pm PST | 9pm EST | 2am GMT | 3am CET

For chat moderators of both DD and JD there's a 2nd freeroll an hour later, with another 2 BTC prize pool and two more 0.5 BTC bounties.

See you there! 

Too bad I don't play poker. Maybe some game related to JD would be more appropriate for birthday? May I suggest something like "first user to win 1% bet after the birthday timestamp wins ..." something?

what about some back alley dicing?  http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/81772202/

[21pilot]

your activity on the site is too low to qualify for this poker freeroll; please try for the next one in a month or so    

I´m really curious what amount of turnover is needed in order to qualify.
Or does it have to do with the duration of membership at just-dice?

(i guess this could be a difficult approach because of many people changing account names regularly)

[Beymond]

dooglus, i respect you and what you mean to the bitcoin gambling world.

i'm rooting for JD as i bet yes that just-dice will make 600BTC for the month of June


https://www.betmoose.com/bet/justdice-june-investors


right now JD is at 230BTC profit for June.


I got a lot riding on this.  


600 BTC profit in may
821 BTC profit in april

How much will you get if you invested 1 BTC and the profit on site are 230BTC ?

[001sonkit]

invested amount / house roll * profit * 90%
1/50,000*(600+821)*0.9=0.025578
1/50,000*(230)*0.9=0.00414

[soccosocco]

if anyone can tell me to pass just-dice freeroll 1yr Anniversary?
If I invest $ 0.1, I benefit every day, every week or every month?

thanks before 

[boumalo]

June 20th marks the 1st birthday for Just-Dice.

To celebrate we're having a 2 BTC poker freeroll at SealsWithClubs for Just-Dice regulars old and new.

Log in to your regular account, and type /poker in the chat box to see if you qualify for a free ticket.

There's also a 0.5 bounty on the head of both doog and Deb - knock either of them out to claim your 0.5 BTC prize.

6pm PST | 9pm EST | 2am GMT | 3am CET

For chat moderators of both DD and JD there's a 2nd freeroll an hour later, with another 2 BTC prize pool and two more 0.5 BTC bounties.

See you there! 

Too bad I don't play poker. Maybe some game related to JD would be more appropriate for birthday? May I suggest something like "first user to win 1% bet after the birthday timestamp wins ..." something?

I like the idea; why not a 5-6 different give aways :
-First user to win 1% bet
-First 10 real money bets of 0.1 or more after the birthday timestamp get 0.2BTC bonus
ect.

[dooglus]

i'm rooting for JD as i bet yes that just-dice will make 600BTC for the month of June

I'm surprised that bet was authorised.  It's a little underspecified:

Will Just-Dice.com investors make 600 BTC profit in the month of June JD investors made 821 BTC profit in april and 600 BTC profit in may

Which timezone are you using to say when the months end?  What are you using to determine the profit?  Are you talking about profit before or after commission?

You ought to clear all this up before things get messy!  I guess if you could prove where you got the 821 and 600 numbers from then you could make a reasonable case for using the same source for June.

Also, http://bitbet.us/ is the place to make such bets - they wouldn't let you get away with such a sloppy bet specification.

what about some back alley dicing?  http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/81772202/

Funny stuff.  I don't understand the "Ashy Larry" joke.  There's a lot of laughter when he first comes on screen (1:13), but what's funny?  Is it because he's in his underwear?  "Why do they call him Ashy Larry?  Well there's your answer".  I don't get it.

We had a player/investor called Ashy Larry a while back, and I didn't get the reference until now. 

if anyone can tell me to pass just-dice freeroll 1yr Anniversary?

The game is for regulars on the site.  Type /poker in the chat to see if your account qualifies.  If so, you'll be given a unique invitation code.

If I invest $ 0.1, I benefit every day, every week or every month?

Every split second.  You get to share in the profit or loss made by every single bet.

Too bad I don't play poker. Maybe some game related to JD would be more appropriate for birthday? May I suggest something like "first user to win 1% bet after the birthday timestamp wins ..." something?

I like the idea; why not a 5-6 different give aways :
-First user to win 1% bet
-First 10 real money bets of 0.1 or more after the birthday timestamp get 0.2BTC bonus
ect.

We've tried these kinds of "milestone" things before, and they never work out too well.  You get a quick bust of activity, causing lots of lag, and then it's back to normal.

Also you have to be careful designing them.  If you say "first bet to win at 10%" it'll be someone betting 0 BTC.  If you say "get your stake refunded", everyone bets at 98.99%.  Etc.  People are very smart at working out how best to benefit from incentives.

[omahapoker]

i'm rooting for JD as i bet yes that just-dice will make 600BTC for the month of June

I'm surprised that bet was authorised.  It's a little underspecified:

Will Just-Dice.com investors make 600 BTC profit in the month of June JD investors made 821 BTC profit in april and 600 BTC profit in may

Which timezone are you using to say when the months end?  What are you using to determine the profit?  Are you talking about profit before or after commission?

You ought to clear all this up before things get messy!  I guess if you could prove where you got the 821 and 600 numbers from then you could make a reasonable case for using the same source for June.

Also, http://bitbet.us/ is the place to make such bets - they wouldn't let you get away with such a sloppy bet specification.

___________

Just-Dice JUNE InvestorsOptions: Yes | No

hope i cleared up the bet a little. we got some action on it now

when is JD3 coming out?  will it be out before stunna and PD3?

[belltown]

your activity on the site is too low to qualify for this poker freeroll; please try for the next one in a month or so    

Hey, dooglus. So are you planning this poker freeroll every month? Will it be 2 BTC again next month?

[monbux]

your activity on the site is too low to qualify for this poker freeroll; please try for the next one in a month or so    

Hey, dooglus. So are you planning this poker freeroll every month? Will it be 2 BTC again next month?

Unless I've misread - I believe this is a 1 year anniversary special.  So I doubt we would get this privilege every month, sorry :-/
On the other hand.. not sure why chat tells you that, so I guess we would have to wait for doog's confirmation.

[omahapoker]

theres your proof of JD profit for april and may





884 may

1581  april

[organofcorti]

<img snip>

theres your proof of JD profit for april and may


https://bitcoinproject.net/justdice.php

No, the yellow line is the actual profit. The 1% line is expected profit.


EDIT: Hmmm. You know it's polite to mention when you edit a post?

[MadZ]

Also you have to be careful designing them.  If you say "first bet to win at 10%" it'll be someone betting 0 BTC.  If you say "get your stake refunded", everyone bets at 98.99%.  Etc.  People are very smart at working out how best to benefit from incentives.

It would not be smart to bet 0 in this case, since there is a 3 second delay in between bets at this point. You would have much higher odds spamming a moderately high bet.

[BetMoose]

i'm rooting for JD as i bet yes that just-dice will make 600BTC for the month of June

I'm surprised that bet was authorised.  It's a little underspecified:

Will Just-Dice.com investors make 600 BTC profit in the month of June JD investors made 821 BTC profit in april and 600 BTC profit in may

Which timezone are you using to say when the months end?  What are you using to determine the profit?  Are you talking about profit before or after commission?

You ought to clear all this up before things get messy!  I guess if you could prove where you got the 821 and 600 numbers from then you could make a reasonable case for using the same source for June.

Also, http://bitbet.us/ is the place to make such bets - they wouldn't let you get away with such a sloppy bet specification.

what about some back alley dicing?  http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/81772202/

Funny stuff.  I don't understand the "Ashy Larry" joke.  There's a lot of laughter when he first comes on screen (1:13), but what's funny?  Is it because he's in his underwear?  "Why do they call him Ashy Larry?  Well there's your answer".  I don't get it.

We had a player/investor called Ashy Larry a while back, and I didn't get the reference until now. 

if anyone can tell me to pass just-dice freeroll 1yr Anniversary?

The game is for regulars on the site.  Type /poker in the chat to see if your account qualifies.  If so, you'll be given a unique invitation code.

If I invest $ 0.1, I benefit every day, every week or every month?

Every split second.  You get to share in the profit or loss made by every single bet.

Too bad I don't play poker. Maybe some game related to JD would be more appropriate for birthday? May I suggest something like "first user to win 1% bet after the birthday timestamp wins ..." something?

I like the idea; why not a 5-6 different give aways :
-First user to win 1% bet
-First 10 real money bets of 0.1 or more after the birthday timestamp get 0.2BTC bonus
ect.

We've tried these kinds of "milestone" things before, and they never work out too well.  You get a quick bust of activity, causing lots of lag, and then it's back to normal.

Also you have to be careful designing them.  If you say "first bet to win at 10%" it'll be someone betting 0 BTC.  If you say "get your stake refunded", everyone bets at 98.99%.  Etc.  People are very smart at working out how best to benefit from incentives.

Hey doog,

Just an fyi: anyone can host on betmoose - it's up to the host to properly cite sources, otherwise bettors wouldn't bet, as you pointed out. We don't restrict bets like bitbet so it keeps it more interesting and fresh, though yes the host has to be specific.

Omaha, please report your bet as an edit request so we can update your outcome determination according to the conditions you'd like to set before you get more bets on it.

Avalon

[omahapoker]

<img snip>

theres your proof of JD profit for april and may


https://bitcoinproject.net/justdice.php

No, the yellow line is the actual profit. The 1% line is expected profit.


EDIT: Hmmm. You know it's polite to mention when you edit a post?

i thought the new pics with yellow lines would alert you to edit