Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[chriswen]

Fullquote and BIG +1

Except for the cap at 1.9% edge: since we are the only one offering such a small max bet, I feel we really need no cap on increasing the edge.

I don't really like the idea of charging big players a higher house edge.  For one we should be encouraging big play, not punishing it.  And for two it's nice to be able to advertise "1% house edge" without having to put in small print "* unless you're a serious player, in which case it's up to double that, determined by some complex formula or other"

Fullquote and BIG +1

I disagree, The raise in cap edge would be for bets beyond the max bet.  This way variance could be controlled for higher risk (+ for investors).  And it allows gamblers to bet over the max bet (for a bit of house edge).  But, they still get to bet more which is a plus.  Its like a feature.

[chriswen]

The edge should under no circumstances be changed.  The 1% edge is why just-dice has a market advantage and 2 million BTC wagered.

If he raises it, gamblers will instantly go play at a competitor with 1%.   Adjust the max bet if you'd like, but changing the edge would be a terrible business decision.

It would be a change in the edge for bigger bets.  No, other sites have a higher max bet.  Having the feature with bets with a higher edge will actually encourage gamblers cause they'll be able to bet even more.  If they don't want to pay more edge they can just use the lower max bet.

[ottodv]

The edge should under no circumstances be changed.  The 1% edge is why just-dice has a market advantage and 2 million BTC wagered.

If he raises it, gamblers will instantly go play at a competitor with 1%.   Adjust the max bet if you'd like, but changing the edge would be a terrible business decision.

Also what I think. A house edge at 1% is simple and as doog says no need add small print like "except if you are betting more than 50 btc...". Then what do you do if there is a huge swing in the value of btc? You have to start taking this into account too... maybe in two years betting 10 btc is like betting 50 now? I foresee endless discussion about the level at which the house edge should start going up. Spare us the aggravation and just leave it at 1% for all bets.

Someone suggested an investment cap, I can't agree with that either. Fixing a maximum when the price of bitcoin can be volatile fails anyway as an attempt to fix the max bet in the longer term. Besides I much prefer to let investors set the maximum bet it in accordance to the risk they want to take.

[mechs]

Has anyone else noticed since we gone to 0.25% variance is way down and profits way up?

[dooglus]

Then what do you do if there is a huge swing in the value of btc? You have to start taking this into account too... maybe in two years betting 10 btc is like betting 50 now? I foresee endless discussion about the level at which the house edge should start going up. Spare us the aggravation and just leave it at 1% for all bets.

I assume it would be written as a percentage of the bankroll.  For example:

"you can bet to win up to 1% of the bankroll with a 1% edge and up to N% of the bankroll with an N% edge" (for some N)

Then it automatically scales with BTC price, as the bankroll adjusts.

[broolstoryco]

Has anyone else noticed since we gone to 0.25% variance is way down and profits way up?

total and utter coincidence.

[kakobrekla]

  21:08.16    ( kakobrekla ) !jd
  21:08.17    ( @assbot ) Just-Dice stat: 222 BTC profit, 45.6k BTC invested, 141.72 mio bets, 2.07 mio BTC wagered

Assbot does just-dice now, in #bitcoin-assets.

[chriswen]

Has anyone else noticed since we gone to 0.25% variance is way down and profits way up?

Profits for some are up, others who rode the way down with you and was willing to risk it are now screwed as the bankroll jumped up 10k BTC diluting their share.

I would also suggest only 1 divest per 24 hour period so "day trading" or running from whales does not happen further diluting passive bankroll gamblers.

day trading is another aspect that is added to the gambling.  Your comment is another investor fallacy.  Day trading reduces losses but also reduces gain.  I don't think there's anything wrong with day trading.  And with the max bet so low its not like the extra variance passive investors will be horrible.

Yeah, now the bankroll is back up at 45k.

[chriswen]

Has anyone else noticed since we gone to 0.25% variance is way down and profits way up?

total and utter coincidence.

Yup, its a coincidence.  This is a fallacy, yes google is the best.

"Correlation does not imply causation"

http://xkcd.com/552/

[Deprived]

Has anyone else noticed since we gone to 0.25% variance is way down and profits way up?

That's like saying "Has anyone noticed since we turned the heater on that the temperature has stopped changing but it's got a lot warmer".

Profits going way up is just as much variance as profits going way down.

[broolstoryco]

Has anyone else noticed since we gone to 0.25% variance is way down and profits way up?

That's like saying "Has anyone noticed since we turned the heater on that the temperature has stopped changing but it's got a lot warmer".

Profits going way up is just as much variance as profits going way down.

literally nobody except nakowa maxbets. Practically no one is affected by this change, therefore the perceived increase in stability and profits is illusory.

[romerun]

Has anyone else noticed since we gone to 0.25% variance is way down and profits way up?

That's like saying "Has anyone noticed since we turned the heater on that the temperature has stopped changing but it's got a lot warmer".

Profits going way up is just as much variance as profits going way down.

literally nobody except nakowa maxbets. Practically no one is affected by this change, therefore the perceived increase in stability and profits is illusory.

Without colossal whale nak profit up/bankroll up as they're always been since day 1.

[kcminer]

Will there ever be a max to the investment side?

[wachtwoord]

Will there ever be a max to the investment side?

I don't see any reason why there should be.

[akeetlebeetle]

Has anyone else noticed since we gone to 0.25% variance is way down and profits way up?

That's like saying "Has anyone noticed since we turned the heater on that the temperature has stopped changing but it's got a lot warmer".

Profits going way up is just as much variance as profits going way down.

literally nobody except nakowa maxbets. Practically no one is affected by this change, therefore the perceived increase in stability and profits is illusory.

Both Balotolli and Nak bumped up against the max bet (couldn't go any higher to recoup). Bal lost 1k and Nak 3k (I believe). We had a guy yolo a 490BTC bet @90% (max) and lost.

All of this pretty much accounts for the current profit you see.

So, maybe only a few whales max bet, but they're the ones responsible for the turnaround.

[MRKLYE]

And within the next 5 hours max profit will increase to 225 when 0.5% max profit enables, variance will return, IMO and within 24 hours.

Hopefully in investors favour the variance will swing.

[kcminer]

Will there ever be a max to the investment side?

I don't see any reason why there should be.

Unless people are betting a ton of BTC there isn't really a reason to have 1M BTC on the site. Doesn't really matter to me was just curious.

[dooglus]

OK, so I'm announcing it.  At midnight UTC Friday I'll change max profit to 0.5%.  (half Kelly).

That's in 25 hours.  I'll have the site spam this news to the chat periodically too.

It's done.  The max profit is currently 220 BTC per roll, with the bankroll at 44k BTC.

[Peter R]

OK, so I'm announcing it.  At midnight UTC Friday I'll change max profit to 0.5%.  (half Kelly).

That's in 25 hours.  I'll have the site spam this news to the chat periodically too.

It's done.  The max profit is currently 220 BTC per roll, with the bankroll at 44k BTC.

Thanks doog!  I'm really enjoying the site you've built.

[mechs]

OK, so I'm announcing it.  At midnight UTC Friday I'll change max profit to 0.5%.  (half Kelly).

That's in 25 hours.  I'll have the site spam this news to the chat periodically too.

It's done.  The max profit is currently 220 BTC per roll, with the bankroll at 44k BTC.

Thanks doog!  I'm really enjoying the site you've built.

Will you still be thanking him when we take a 5000 profit swing down and all these weak hands (which re-invested after a bounce in profits following the nakowa bloodbath) rush for the exits and leave you holding the bag with ever increasing variance?

It only a matter of time before their more wild swings and they won't all continue to be upwards.