Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[bitcoin44me]

On first view it seems that 'day trading' nakowa has a zero expectation.  But if he keeps going up and down like today then "divest at +1000, invest at -1000" is a profitable strategy.

Invest at - 5k, divest at +5k like yesterday.
You will make 20% profit daily

[dooglus]

On first view it seems that 'day trading' nakowa has a zero expectation.  But if he keeps going up and down like today then "divest at +1000, invest at -1000" is a profitable strategy.

Invest at - 5k, divest at +5k like yesterday.
You will make 20% profit daily

Or you'll get stuck divested at 5k and missing out on profits from 5k to 50k...  (we can dream...)

I've made a change to the roll algorithm.

From bet 145,000,000 it will be doing:
  hmac_sha512(nonce+':'+server_seed+':'+nonce, nonce+':'+client_seed+':'+nonce)
instead of the previous:
  hmac_sha512(          server_seed          ,           client_seed+':'+nonce)

ie. using the nonce in 4 places instead of 1.  sha512 is meant to completely change its output for any single bit change in its inputs, but it can't do any harm to change more than one bit each time.

Edit: it was pointed out in chat that this change is pointless, since even a small change in the message will (with overwhelming probability) result in a mostly different hash, due to the avalanche effect.

[bitcoin44me]

Or you'll get stuck divested at 5k and missing out on profits from 5k to 50k...  (we can dream...)

Expected profit is 36k btc
But current profit is - 3k btc.


People lost more than 3 k btc, considering the fact that old people invested and divested with a profit, and the website took commissions on that.
For instance my profit on investment is: 0.12 btc.


I wonder what is the "real" negative profit.

[mechs]

Or you'll get stuck divested at 5k and missing out on profits from 5k to 50k...  (we can dream...)

Expected profit is 36k btc
But current profit is - 3k btc.


People lost more than 3 k btc, considering the fact that old people invested and divested with a profit, and the website took commissions on that.
For instance my profit on investment is: 0.12 btc.


I wonder what is the "real" negative profit.

I will tell you for example that I am 25% down and I invested back in July and I stayed invested throughout

[elm]

One more comment: after looking at the insane betting volume we had yesterday, I'm starting to think a tiny 1% edge is not enough to make decent money for investors unless we have whales pushing max profit non stop, every single day. That might be the reason all other casinos have much higher edge.

Nevertheless I think that for Dooglus the site is good as it is, as he is taking a healthy cut of all the gains on the site, and with such a low edge he can count on a high volume and thus a nice, riskless and clean profit based on commisions. On the contrary, investors (who are actually the guys providing the bankroll of the casino) have a very small edge working on their favour, which means that they can be down for a long time, which is made worse by having their shares diluted when they are at a loss.

If you ask me, I'd just wait and see, but I'd think about taking house edge to 1.5%, or to think of another system of rewarding investors, helping out the tiny edge they have.

it looks like You are the first (hopefully not the only one) one who starts thinking in the right direction. fully agree with Your posting.

[nicolaennio]

One more comment: after looking at the insane betting volume we had yesterday, I'm starting to think a tiny 1% edge is not enough to make decent money for investors unless we have whales pushing max profit non stop, every single day. That might be the reason all other casinos have much higher edge.

Nevertheless I think that for Dooglus the site is good as it is, as he is taking a healthy cut of all the gains on the site, and with such a low edge he can count on a high volume and thus a nice, riskless and clean profit based on commisions. On the contrary, investors (who are actually the guys providing the bankroll of the casino) have a very small edge working on their favour, which means that they can be down for a long time, which is made worse by having their shares diluted when they are at a loss.

If you ask me, I'd just wait and see, but I'd think about taking house edge to 1.5%, or to think of another system of rewarding investors, helping out the tiny edge they have.

May I note that all this mathematically obvious "variance" is clearly putting everyone under stress and questioning about what to do or not?

[manoamano]

I will tell you for example that I am 25% down and I invested back in July and I stayed invested throughout

Wow.
Man, good luck to get positive again, with all people investing when it is low (like now) and divesting when it is high.
It will be harder :/

[Mitchell]

It seems that "Qo" is betting like nakowa.

EDIT: He stopped betting right after I posted this.

[manoamano]

It seems that "Qo" is betting like nakowa.

EDIT: He stopped betting right after I posted this.

I saw Qo betting yesterday at the same time as FFs and Bereathiea.

[Akka]

I will tell you for example that I am 25% down and I invested back in July and I stayed invested throughout

Wow.
Man, good luck to get positive again, with all people investing when it is low (like now) and divesting when it is high.
It will be harder :/

These guys are IMO Gamblers that have found a way to dodge the house edge.

There should be something implemented to discourage this like f.e. a higher commission on high turnover invests, divests. Or a instant fee on every invest (that has to be made up before an invest has to pay any commissions of course).

[mechs]

I will tell you for example that I am 25% down and I invested back in July and I stayed invested throughout

Wow.
Man, good luck to get positive again, with all people investing when it is low (like now) and divesting when it is high.
It will be harder :/

No kidding, that my biggest problem with the system personally.  Once you take a loss, getting back to even becomes progressively more difficult due to continuous dilution.

[elm]

I will tell you for example that I am 25% down and I invested back in July and I stayed invested throughout

Wow.
Man, good luck to get positive again, with all people investing when it is low (like now) and divesting when it is high.
It will be harder :/

These guys are IMO Gamblers that have found a way to dodge the house edge.

There should be something implemented to discourage this like f.e. a higher commission on high turnover invests, divests. Or a instant fee on every invest (that has to be made up before an invest has to pay any commissions of course).

the instant fee will not help if they found a cheat against the house. they only solution is to find the cheat and eliminate it.

[mechs]

I will tell you for example that I am 25% down and I invested back in July and I stayed invested throughout

Wow.
Man, good luck to get positive again, with all people investing when it is low (like now) and divesting when it is high.
It will be harder :/

These guys are IMO Gamblers that have found a way to dodge the house edge.

There should be something implemented to discourage this like f.e. a higher commission on high turnover invests, divests. Or a instant fee on every invest (that has to be made up before an invest has to pay any commissions of course).

the instant fee will not help if they found a cheat against the house. they only solution is to find the cheat and eliminate it.

I think he is refering to those who invest/divest during the whale betting successfully.  That magnifies the losses of the passive investors who stay invested throughout.

[manoamano]

I think he is refering to those who invest/divest during the whale betting successfully.  That magnifies the losses of the passive investors who stay invested throughout.

Yes exactly.
If people invest now, with a -3k profit: it will reduce everyone's profit. So mechs will have a harder time to recover from his loss if the profit comes from -3k to +4k. And then, at +4k, if people divested massively, and mechs stays there, and a whale comes and take 5k profit, he wil suffer a larger and bigger loss, because the casino would have less coins....

[tucenaber]

I will tell you for example that I am 25% down and I invested back in July and I stayed invested throughout

Wow.
Man, good luck to get positive again, with all people investing when it is low (like now) and divesting when it is high.
It will be harder :/

No kidding, that my biggest problem with the system personally.  Once you take a loss, getting back to even becomes progressively more difficult due to continuous dilution.

Perhaps there could be a delay when investing/divesting.

[manoamano]

Perhaps there could be a delay when investing/divesting.

That might prevent some people from investing/divesting at the correct time when profit is up or down.
But it won't help mechs to recover the 25% loss.

I am not even sure he will ever be able to get it back actually.

[Akka]

I will tell you for example that I am 25% down and I invested back in July and I stayed invested throughout

Wow.
Man, good luck to get positive again, with all people investing when it is low (like now) and divesting when it is high.
It will be harder :/

No kidding, that my biggest problem with the system personally.  Once you take a loss, getting back to even becomes progressively more difficult due to continuous dilution.

Perhaps there could be a delay when investing/divesting.

I think, that would be a good enough fix. There should be no delay on divesting, though. It can always be, that one really needs to divest now. Adding a delay of say, 15  min on Investments would be good. There is no reason besides gambling why you couldn't wait this long for your investment to count.

[manoamano]

I think, that would be a good enough fix. There should be no delay on divesting, though. It can always be, that one really needs to divest now. Adding a delay of say, 15  min on Investments would be good. There is no reason besides gambling why you couldn't wait this long for your investment to count.

It won't solve much for mechs.
Anyone will divest when profit will go to 3k or 4k or 5k and nakowa comes to gamble
Everyone will invest when the profit is down (15 min later or before does not change much).


And it will take months for him to recover his loss, unless he invest more now.

[Rampion]

I will tell you for example that I am 25% down and I invested back in July and I stayed invested throughout

Wow.
Man, good luck to get positive again, with all people investing when it is low (like now) and divesting when it is high.
It will be harder :/

No kidding, that my biggest problem with the system personally.  Once you take a loss, getting back to even becomes progressively more difficult due to continuous dilution.

I think the point is us the investors should think about a solution to protect our money and push for it. If I was Dooglus I'd be happy with things as they are, he can be divested and make money only on commissions on gains, and thus the risk of the small 1% edge is on the investors and not on him.

Anyhow it's obvious that if investors make more money, he will also earn more commissions on investors gains, IMO we just have to find a balance between investors being protected and players attracted to the site.

As a first step, I'd try a 1.5% edge. It looks to me that 1% is obviously not enough. I'd also consider a commission on each divestment in order to have a bankroll that is more stable and not fluctuating like crazy like yesterday.

Opinions on this?

[mechs]

I think, that would be a good enough fix. There should be no delay on divesting, though. It can always be, that one really needs to divest now. Adding a delay of say, 15  min on Investments would be good. There is no reason besides gambling why you couldn't wait this long for your investment to count.

It won't solve much for mechs.
Anyone will divest when profit will go to 3k or 4k or 5k and nakowa comes to gamble
Everyone will invest when the profit is down (15 min later or before does not change much).


And it will take months for him to recover his loss, unless he invest more now.

I am personally maximally invested at this point.  Plus, everytime nakowa has come by, it has consistently ended in the site losing 1000s of bitcoins - it has been at least 7 different occasions now.  It is true during the latest session the profit for the site went between +6000 and -5000 ending at -3100.  Some made profits by divesting whenever there was a streak of losses for nakowa (and thus profit for the site) and then reinvesting when site profits went inevitably back down.  That is why passive investors likely myself have losses magnified out of proportion to the site.  Successful investors/traders diluted passive investors profits on the way up and magnify it on the way down.  

Hell even Dooglus divested when the sites profit was up to 3000 BTC today locking in profits and then magnifying losses of passive investors down to -3100.  It seems like you do need to run a bot to actively invest/divest for swings in site profits or just be around for those times when nakowa is online.