Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[RationalSpeculator]

Thanks doog.  Here's the new plot:

Thanks so much Peter.

Very helpful to see his luck streak continues to be within acceptable limits. 

Considering it's at the top of '13.6%' and bottom of '2.1%', does it mean that his luck is around 7%? Meaning there is a 7% chance that he did as good?

What does this graph say to you?

[bitcoin44me]

This.

There is no regression to the mean. If we're at +5000, we can go to +10000 as likely as to 0. If someone wants to time the market, do it. You can win or you can lose, but math is not on your side.

For those whining around everytime the profit is down, that's simply because you can't stand the variance. Don't call out for further reglementations, just divest partly. I have done this yesterday myself, I divested about 60% before going to sleep, because I don't want to wake up with a 20% loss.

If nakowa is playing, and site profit is +5k, it can go up to +20k, it does not matter at all:
At the end of the day, it will be negative.


He got some much btc, that the current bankroll is not enough to make him possibly broken.

[wachtwoord]

if the rolls are truly random, then there is no such thing as 'timing your invest/divest', right? so day trading is merely limiting your exposure to shorter amounts of time.

an investors EV is still positive if they day trade, just based off of less wagered.

the whole point of day trading is either reduction in exposure to variance, gamblers fallacy, or the belief that a gambler is in fact cheating.

I see very little down side to day trading at JD.

Finally someone with a brain.

[bitcoin44me]

if the rolls are truly random, then there is no such thing as 'timing your invest/divest', right? so day trading is merely limiting your exposure to shorter amounts of time.

an investors EV is still positive if they day trade, just based off of less wagered.

the whole point of day trading is either reduction in exposure to variance, gamblers fallacy, or the belief that a gambler is in fact cheating.

I see very little down side to day trading at JD.

Agreed. But unless the site is working correctly there's also no reason to day trade.

Maximize profit.
Make profit while overall investors lose money (current profit: -3k)

[pascal257]

if the rolls are truly random, then there is no such thing as 'timing your invest/divest', right? so day trading is merely limiting your exposure to shorter amounts of time.

an investors EV is still positive if they day trade, just based off of less wagered.

the whole point of day trading is either reduction in exposure to variance, gamblers fallacy, or the belief that a gambler is in fact cheating.

I see very little down side to day trading at JD.

Agreed. But unless the site is working correctly there's also no reason to day trade.

Maximize profit.
Make profit while overall investors lose money (current profit: -3k)

That's bullshit.

[chriswen]

if the rolls are truly random, then there is no such thing as 'timing your invest/divest', right? so day trading is merely limiting your exposure to shorter amounts of time.

an investors EV is still positive if they day trade, just based off of less wagered.

the whole point of day trading is either reduction in exposure to variance, gamblers fallacy, or the belief that a gambler is in fact cheating.

I see very little down side to day trading at JD.

Agreed. But unless the site is working correctly there's also no reason to day trade.

Maximize profit.
Make profit while overall investors lose money (current profit: -3k)

That's bullshit.

Pascal , you're right.  Day trading does not maximize profit.

But it does minimize losses.

[pascal257]

Maximize profit.
Make profit while overall investors lose money (current profit: -3k)

That's bullshit.

Pascal , you're right.  Day trading does not maximize profit.

But it does minimize losses.

Wouldn't minimizing losses maximize profit?

[bitcoin44me]

Wouldn't minimizing losses maximize profit?

Yes, I was thinking the same ^^


And even if you disagree, you are wrong.
1% edge house does not mean that every bet will loose 1% of his value.

[pascal257]

Wouldn't minimizing losses maximize profit?

Yes, I was thinking the same ^^


And even if you disagree, you are wrong.
1% edge house does not mean that every bet will loose 1% of his value.

No, of course not.

But please, go ahead and "play" the investment. In the long run, those who stay invested should make more profit than you.

[bitcoin44me]

No, of course not.

But please, go ahead and "play" the investment. In the long run, those who stay invested should make more profit than you.

mechs is 25% down currently (invested in July).
How could I possibly lose more than him by investing now and divesting whenever I find it suitable? (I am 0.1 btc up)

[01BTC10]

if the rolls are truly random, then there is no such thing as 'timing your invest/divest', right? so day trading is merely limiting your exposure to shorter amounts of time.

an investors EV is still positive if they day trade, just based off of less wagered.

the whole point of day trading is either reduction in exposure to variance, gamblers fallacy, or the belief that a gambler is in fact cheating.

I see very little down side to day trading at JD.

If you know that someone has 10k euros.
That the website bankroll is 10 euros, and every investors has like 1 cent.

When you see the big guy gambling you should divest and invest when he finish ...
Because you know that:
1) there is no way on earth the 10 euros bankroll will destroy his 10k bankroll.
2) your 1 cent investment will take 10 / 20 / 30 % lost in a few hours.
3) you can make money but investing/divesting at the coorect time

If the house manage the bankroll correctly (Kelly criterion) then even if the whale has infinite money, the house edge will eventually get all the money. Trying to always get more players like a casino do is virtually gambling against infinite money.

1) It will over time.
2) The probability is higher that the investment will grow.
3) Divesting when there is more betting volume only reduce profit over time.

Investing/divesting strategy is a gambler fallacy unless you want to reduce variance (and profit) over time.

[bitcoin44me]

If the site manage his bankroll correctly (Kelly criterion) then even if the whale has infinite money then the house edge will eventually get all his money. Trying to always get more players like a casino do is virtually gambling against infinite money.

1) It will over time.
2) The probability is higher that the investment will grow.
3) Divesting when there is more betting volume only reduce profit over time.

Assuming that he will bet over and over, which is wrong.
He will always stopped when he got a profit, and considering variance, and his bankroll, it will always happen sooner or later.

[01BTC10]

If the site manage his bankroll correctly (Kelly criterion) then even if the whale has infinite money then the house edge will eventually get all his money. Trying to always get more players like a casino do is virtually gambling against infinite money.

1) It will over time.
2) The probability is higher that the investment will grow.
3) Divesting when there is more betting volume only reduce profit over time.

Assuming that he will bet over and over, which is wrong.
He will always stopped when he got a profit, and considering variance, and his bankroll, it will always happen sooner or later.

When exactly did he stop? Last I heard he is still playing. Stopping one day then coming back another day change nothing. It's one long session and even if he quit then another whale will probably come during the lifetime of the casino.

[bitcoin44me]

When exactly did he stop? Last I heard he is still playing. Stopping one day then coming back another day change nothing. It's one long session and even if he quit then another whale will probably come during the lifetime of the casino.

He stops every day whenever he got 1 or 2k btc profit.
Previous bets does not affect new bets.

He got enough bankrolls to take 1 or 2 k btc per day with (almost) no risk.
He is using variance. It takes a couple of hours for him to reach it.

[01BTC10]

If you think that a gambler can win (long term) against a casino with whatever system then don't invest in a casino.

[TwinWinNerD]

If the site manage his bankroll correctly (Kelly criterion) then even if the whale has infinite money then the house edge will eventually get all his money. Trying to always get more players like a casino do is virtually gambling against infinite money.

1) It will over time.
2) The probability is higher that the investment will grow.
3) Divesting when there is more betting volume only reduce profit over time.

Assuming that he will bet over and over, which is wrong.
He will always stopped when he got a profit, and considering variance, and his bankroll, it will always happen sooner or later.

When exactly did he stop? Last I heard he is still playing. Stopping one day then coming back another day change nothing. It's one long session and even if he quit then another whale will probably come during the lifetime of the casino.

stop discussing. Those guys have Investor's Fallacy

[Mitchell]

I would most likely die from the stress and adrenaline if I did bets like he does.

[bitcoin44me]

If you think that a gambler can win (long term) against a casino with whatever system then don't invest in a casino.

I don't think so.
I am sure they do.


I personally know some people that do go to the casino (higher than 1% house edge) and win money every month.

[01BTC10]

If the site manage his bankroll correctly (Kelly criterion) then even if the whale has infinite money then the house edge will eventually get all his money. Trying to always get more players like a casino do is virtually gambling against infinite money.

1) It will over time.
2) The probability is higher that the investment will grow.
3) Divesting when there is more betting volume only reduce profit over time.

Assuming that he will bet over and over, which is wrong.
He will always stopped when he got a profit, and considering variance, and his bankroll, it will always happen sooner or later.

When exactly did he stop? Last I heard he is still playing. Stopping one day then coming back another day change nothing. It's one long session and even if he quit then another whale will probably come during the lifetime of the casino.

stop discussing. Those guys have Investor's Fallacy

This is funny.

[bitcoin44me]

I would most likely die from the stress and adrenaline if I did bets like he does.

I think that he wagered 2 millions btc or something like that.
200 M usd