Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[Mitchell]

In a recent PM to me (maybe a week ago), mechs told me:

(06:49:06 PM) mechs: if I thought you were running a scam, I would be nice, divest, and then bad mouth you

I don't get the impression that's what he's doing, but it's an interesting possibility.

I'm so sick of this shit...

-snip-

I'm meant to believe that once, and only once, the withdraw form ignored the value typed into it and decided to use a different address?

Sounds like pure bullshit from mechs.

[dooglus]

Also Dooglus, I would suggest making investors pay for each divest they do. However give every user 1 free divest per day.

This will stop the daytraders that are creating more negative EV for the long investors, and also its still fair to those people that needs quick access to their coins. A non day trading investor will not have used up their free fee and thus have nothing to worry about.

I don't agree that daytraders are creating negative EV for long term investors.  By being divested part of the time they increase the long term investor's share of the profits, increasing their EV.

It's common for players on the site to invest between playing sessions.  I don't think it's fair to penalise them doing so by charging them an extra fee each time they divest to play.  It makes them less likely to play at all.

[Rannasha]

All this talk about pokerstars is pointless, they do not deal a provably fair poker game no matter what "auditing" they do.

Also Dooglus, I would suggest making investors pay for each divest they do. However give every user 1 free divest per day.

This will stop the daytraders that are creating more negative EV for the long investors, and also its still fair to those people that needs quick access to their coins. A non day trading investor will not have used up their free fee and thus have nothing to worry about.

Also, lol.  You think people day trading makes it 'more negative EV'?  Do you have any f**king clue what you are talking about?  Its the exact opposite and if you want to bet huge on this we can use doog as an escrow, wager whatever and find an established arbitrator settle this.

Ok I misspoke. So far it has been negative EV for the investors that have been invested non stop and most of the day trade investors are up (me included)

I know that "EV" is the new cool buzzword of the Bitcoin-gambling-sector that should be used as much as possible to maximize coolness (just like "ROI" for the mining-people), but can we at least pretend that EV stands for "Expectation Value" and therefore does not apply when discussing past results.

Assuming that JD is fair and players aren't cheating, the expectation value of "daytrading", compared to staying invested, is negative. Anyone believing they can score a consistent profit on the long term with daytrading is falling for the gambler's fallacy.

Daytrading does decrease ones exposure to volatility caused by whales (singular, in case of JD) at the cost of increasing the exposure to volatility of those remaining invested. And since Nakowa has had very good luck, it's not surprising that daytraders have on average performed better than those that remained invested. If Nakowas luck turns, so will that of the daytraders.

[dooglus]

I am not really familiar with server management or anything, but I am guessing this is not a reasonable option due to the potential increase in server load.

I think the main problem with this "choose a percentage" scheme is that it causes huge swings in the bankroll:

A day-trader divests, causing every other investor's share of the bankroll to increase (percentage-wise).  All the ones who have set a percentage then auto-divest to get their percentage share back to the amount they requested.  This magnifies the effect of the day trader's divest, since now all the percentage investors divest in unison.  All the regular non-percentage investors are affected even worse than under the current system.  So there's an incentive for them to become percentage investors too.  Eventually everyone is a percentage investor, causing all investors to invest and divest in unison, resulting in massive volatility in the bankroll.

Maybe?

[dooglus]

Ok I misspoke. So far it has been negative EV for the investors that have been invested non stop

I think you're still misspeaking.

So far it has been negative for them, but not negative EV.  The expectation was positive, but the actual result was negative.

[tucenaber]

Hey, Doog.

Please update the investor balances as it's two weeks behind.

I might add that the sums of (at least) the last two balances (8 & 15 sept) don't add up.

The sums I get are 51902.59070647 and 52879.66747491 respectively.

[dooglus]

00:01:01 (12141) <mechs> So I just spent 2 hours in a dumpster
00:01:05 (12141) <mechs> literaly
00:01:13 (12141) <mechs> and FOUND THE FUCKING PAPER WALLET!

And now:

00:34:44 *** fuckit (169618) [#148575723] bet 1767.51587669 BTC at 92% and won 134.4849098 BTC ***
00:34:48 (145724) <fsh> ROFL
00:34:54 *** fuckit (169618) [#148575921] bet 1767.51587669 BTC at 92% and won 134.4849098 BTC ***
00:34:54 (139385) <R> Omg!!!
00:34:55 (145724) <fsh> rofl
00:34:58 (145724) <fsh> this is the shit
00:35:03 (152350) <JimC> HOLY SHIT
00:35:02 (145724) <fsh> thats what im talking about
00:35:16 (145724) <fsh> you figured it was lost anyway haha
00:35:18 (145724) <fsh> now STOP.
00:35:27 (145724) <fsh> haha
00:35:33 (139385) <R> Was that mechs??
00:35:41 *** fuckit (169618) [#148576957] bet 1767.51587669 BTC at 92% and won 134.4849098 BTC ***

biggest bets in last 52 weeks

+-----------+---------------+--------------+--------+--------+---------------------+
| betid     | bet           | profit       | chance | uid    | date                |
+-----------+---------------+--------------+--------+--------+---------------------+
| 148576957 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:35:40 |
| 148575921 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:34:53 |
| 148575723 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:34:43 |
|  14740956 |           640 |         -640 |     90 |     12 | 2013-07-07 18:03:05 |

[Mitchell]

-snip-

And now:

-snip-

biggest bets in last 52 weeks

+-----------+---------------+--------------+--------+--------+---------------------+
| betid     | bet           | profit       | chance | uid    | date                |
+-----------+---------------+--------------+--------+--------+---------------------+
| 148576957 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:35:40 |
| 148575921 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:34:53 |
| 148575723 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:34:43 |
|  14740956 |           640 |         -640 |     90 |     12 | 2013-07-07 18:03:05 |

That guy really wants to lose it, doesn't he?

[dooglus]

Hey, Doog.

Please update the investor balances as it's two weeks behind.

I might add that the sums of (at least) the last two balances (8 & 15 sept) don't add up.

The sums I get are 51902.59070647 and 52879.66747491 respectively.

I don't list amounts less than 0.0001 BTC, but the total includes them.  Does that account for the difference?

[dooglus]

-snip-

And now:

-snip-

biggest bets in last 52 weeks

+-----------+---------------+--------------+--------+--------+---------------------+
| betid     | bet           | profit       | chance | uid    | date                |
+-----------+---------------+--------------+--------+--------+---------------------+
| 148576957 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:35:40 |
| 148575921 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:34:53 |
| 148575723 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:34:43 |
|  14740956 |           640 |         -640 |     90 |     12 | 2013-07-07 18:03:05 |

That guy really wants to lose it, doesn't he?

I guess...

00:42:14 *** fuckit (169618) [#148584193] bet 2170.97057849 BTC at 92% and won 165.18255156 BTC ***
00:43:32 *** fuckit (169618) [#148585325] bet 2336.15313005 BTC at 92% and won 177.75078975 BTC ***
00:48:31 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590355] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***
00:49:14 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590882] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***

[Mitchell]

That guy really wants to lose it, doesn't he?

I guess...

00:42:14 *** fuckit (169618) [#148584193] bet 2170.97057849 BTC at 92% and won 165.18255156 BTC ***
00:43:32 *** fuckit (169618) [#148585325] bet 2336.15313005 BTC at 92% and won 177.75078975 BTC ***
00:48:31 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590355] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***
00:49:14 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590882] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***

Well, let's look at it positively. If he continues like this he will lose it. Even 92% can go wrong.

[Rannasha]

That guy really wants to lose it, doesn't he?

I guess...

00:42:14 *** fuckit (169618) [#148584193] bet 2170.97057849 BTC at 92% and won 165.18255156 BTC ***
00:43:32 *** fuckit (169618) [#148585325] bet 2336.15313005 BTC at 92% and won 177.75078975 BTC ***
00:48:31 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590355] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***
00:49:14 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590882] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***

Well, let's look at it positively. If he continues like this he will lose it. Even 92% can go wrong.

He just withdrew 3100 BTC. Nice winnings.

[Mitchell]

That guy really wants to lose it, doesn't he?

I guess...

00:42:14 *** fuckit (169618) [#148584193] bet 2170.97057849 BTC at 92% and won 165.18255156 BTC ***
00:43:32 *** fuckit (169618) [#148585325] bet 2336.15313005 BTC at 92% and won 177.75078975 BTC ***
00:48:31 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590355] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***
00:49:14 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590882] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***

Well, let's look at it positively. If he continues like this he will lose it. Even 92% can go wrong.

He just withdrew 3100 BTC. Nice winnings.

Oh, damn. Well, gamblers will be gamblers. I bet that he will come back and do the same again.

[Rampion]

Also Dooglus, I would suggest making investors pay for each divest they do. However give every user 1 free divest per day.

This will stop the daytraders that are creating more negative EV for the long investors, and also its still fair to those people that needs quick access to their coins. A non day trading investor will not have used up their free fee and thus have nothing to worry about.

I don't agree that daytraders are creating negative EV for long term investors.  By being divested part of the time they increase the long term investor's share of the profits, increasing their EV.

It's common for players on the site to invest between playing sessions.  I don't think it's fair to penalise them doing so by charging them an extra fee each time they divest to play.  It makes them less likely to play at all.

Daytrading is not creating -EV for long term investors, but a cold hard fact remains: those who invested at site's inception and never divested are now stuck with a huge +30% loss, despite of the +3M btc and 150M bets wagered. Crazy stuff, as the numbers seem large enough for the house edge to be working fine.

Anyhow, your point about a divestment fee discouraging divesting to gamble is very spot on, I guess we are all just brainstorming to find a solution that makes the site more profitable for investors that fund the bankroll without divesting and causing "bank runs" that make you and other investors nervous.

Mechs: I criticized you hard for putting pressure on doog to cripple max profit, and I still think that was a big mistake. We went to 1/4 Kelly in the middle of a session in which Nakowa lost 5k. You and some others believe this loss was caused precisely by lowering max profit - I believe that's baseless, lucky numbers didn't change and IMO a higher max profit would have led Nakowa to lose way more, but we will never be able to find out who is right.

Nevertheless, I perfectly understand the reasons that made you nervous, and I felt extremely bad for you when I read about your loss. I'm very happy you sorted it out, that would have been a mind blowing loss.

Just let me recommend you against "picking pennies on a train track" by betting thousands of coins at 92% odds, you will want to kill yourself if you'd lose such an amount in such a stupid way now that your anger is taking over.

[Rampion]

That guy really wants to lose it, doesn't he?

I guess...

00:42:14 *** fuckit (169618) [#148584193] bet 2170.97057849 BTC at 92% and won 165.18255156 BTC ***
00:43:32 *** fuckit (169618) [#148585325] bet 2336.15313005 BTC at 92% and won 177.75078975 BTC ***
00:48:31 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590355] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***
00:49:14 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590882] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***

Well, let's look at it positively. If he continues like this he will lose it. Even 92% can go wrong.

He just withdrew 3100 BTC. Nice winnings.

Oh, damn. Well, gamblers will be gamblers. I bet that he will come back and do the same again.

I guess he just tried to cover his 35% loss by reckless gambling, leaving his fellow investors holding a bigger bag.

Well, that's life, and I guess that finally he realized that funding a casino is not a "long term, stable investment"

[tucenaber]

I don't list amounts less than 0.0001 BTC, but the total includes them.  Does that account for the difference?

It probably does. Sorry about that, I should learn to read. The explanation is right there in the OP.

[theskillzdatklls]

Most heroic thing I've ever seen:

01:21:04 *** fuckit (169618) [#148620446] bet 3682.77897204 BTC at 95% and won 155.06436614 BTC ***

[dooglus]

He just made the ten twelve biggest bets since Just-Dice started.  Previously the biggest bet was Vinka's 640 BTC at 90% which lost.

2013-10-02 07:34:43 *** fuckit (169618) [#148575723] bet 1767.51587669 BTC at 92% and won 134.4849098 BTC ***
2013-10-02 07:34:53 *** fuckit (169618) [#148575921] bet 1767.51587669 BTC at 92% and won 134.4849098 BTC ***
2013-10-02 07:35:39 *** fuckit (169618) [#148576957] bet 1767.51587669 BTC at 92% and won 134.4849098 BTC ***
2013-10-02 07:42:12 *** fuckit (169618) [#148584193] bet 2170.97057849 BTC at 92% and won 165.18255156 BTC ***
2013-10-02 07:43:30 *** fuckit (169618) [#148585325] bet 2336.15313005 BTC at 92% and won 177.75078975 BTC ***
2013-10-02 07:48:30 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590355] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***
2013-10-02 07:49:13 *** fuckit (169618) [#148590882] bet 2513.9037274 BTC at 92% and won 191.27529235 BTC ***
2013-10-02 07:51:02 *** fuckit (169618) [#148591949] bet 2896.4543159 BTC at 92% and won 220.38240367 BTC ***
2013-10-02 08:01:57 *** fuckit (169618) [#148601047] bet 3116.83674877 BTC at 93% and won 201.08624487 BTC ***
2013-10-02 08:12:54 *** fuckit (169618) [#148612542] bet 3317.92314519 BTC at 93% and won 214.05956096 BTC ***
2013-10-02 08:19:29 *** fuckit (169618) [#148618898] bet 3533.97982021 BTC at 95% and won 148.79913916 BTC ***
2013-10-02 08:21:04 *** fuckit (169618) [#148620446] bet 3682.77897204 BTC at 95% and won 155.06436614 BTC ***

Then he withdrew: https://blockchain.info/tx/fa6b05b537f1341cbf3c10c74088badb9489a2f282adf17caa99c30f1db55068

biggest bets in last 52 weeks

+-----------+---------------+--------------+--------+--------+---------------------+
| betid     | bet           | profit       | chance | uid    | date                |
+-----------+---------------+--------------+--------+--------+---------------------+
| 148620446 | 3682.77897204 | 155.06436614 |     95 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 08:21:04 |
| 148618898 | 3533.97982021 | 148.79913916 |     95 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 08:19:29 |
| 148612542 | 3317.92314519 | 214.05956096 |     93 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 08:12:55 |
| 148601047 | 3116.83674877 | 201.08624487 |     93 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 08:01:57 |
| 148591949 |  2896.4543159 | 220.38240367 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:51:03 |
| 148590882 |  2513.9037274 | 191.27529235 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:49:14 |
| 148590355 |  2513.9037274 | 191.27529235 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:48:31 |
| 148585325 | 2336.15313005 | 177.75078975 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:43:31 |
| 148584193 | 2170.97057849 | 165.18255156 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:42:13 |
| 148576957 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:35:40 |
| 148575921 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:34:53 |
| 148575723 | 1767.51587669 |  134.4849098 |     92 | 169618 | 2013-10-02 07:34:43 |
|  14740956 |           640 |         -640 |     90 |     12 | 2013-07-07 18:03:05 |
|   7093577 |  561.29526541 |   5.72750179 |     98 |     35 | 2013-06-29 04:59:20 |
|  13865610 |           500 |           50 |     90 |     12 | 2013-07-06 04:06:40 |

[Mitchell]

Damn. I would already be happy with 1 of his bet outcomes. My faucet payout would increase extremely.

[sittesreg]

too small house edge, Doog....