qxzn
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December 18, 2013, 09:02:43 AM |
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I still have a hard time understanding it. I see that random values have no past. Its random. But random doesnt look random anymore the more values you have. So even when you throw a perfect dice 10,000 times and you get these results: 1-2000 2-2000 3-3000 4-2000 5-2000 6-1000
Yeah the more values you add, the 3's and 6's are going to tend to come into line. However, that's not because 6's are somehow more likely, or 3's any less. It's just because as you add more values, the discrepancies become relatively smaller. Try this: what happens if you add 5000 to all the results? E.g. the fair die is just doing it's job being perfectly fair now. Your new totals are: 1-7000 2-7000 3-8000 4-7000 5-7000 6-6000 Now the 3s and 6s are still 1000 away from where they should be, but as a percentage they're only about 15% out of line instead of 50%. It is only in this sense that things eventually "come into line".
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Dabs
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3416
Merit: 1912
The Concierge of Crypto
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December 18, 2013, 12:27:00 PM |
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Do a simulation for a million rolls. Or even better, do a million real rolls. It's a nice distribution. One of my accounts has 1.3 million rolls.
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dooglus (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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December 18, 2013, 06:55:18 PM |
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Try this: what happens if you add 5000 to all the results? E.g. the fair die is just doing it's job being perfectly fair now. Your new totals are:
1-7000 2-7000 3-8000 4-7000 5-7000 6-6000
Now the 3s and 6s are still 1000 away from where they should be, but as a percentage they're only about 15% out of line instead of 50%. It is only in this sense that things eventually "come into line".
This is the post I was about to make. Thanks for saving me the time. To further push the point home, imagine you've done 6 million more rolls, and the totals are: 1-1002000 2-1002000 3-1003000 4-1002000 5-1002000 6-1001000 then all 6 numbers are very close to the expected 16.666%. All of them have become closer to where they "should" be, even though the 6's didn't have to do anything special to "catch up".
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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spiccioli
Legendary
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Activity: 1378
Merit: 1003
nec sine labore
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December 19, 2013, 04:25:30 PM |
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dooglus, it's every day more difficult to connect to jd for me. I have to reload page 5-10 times before it starts updating. Right now I've been banned for an hour... spiccioli
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wolverine.ks
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December 19, 2013, 09:56:44 PM |
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thoughts on having the investors balances list signed with dooglus's PGP key as well as give investors the option to sign their weekly balances?
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kgo
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December 19, 2013, 11:11:00 PM |
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dooglus, it's every day more difficult to connect to jd for me. I have to reload page 5-10 times before it starts updating. Right now I've been banned for an hour... spiccioli If you're using firefox, that hangs all the time. I get hangs all the time, but then chrome works perfectly. I wish there would be a message on the site recommending that you don't use firefox. Wonder how many gamblers get scared off.
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wolverine.ks
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December 20, 2013, 12:15:28 AM |
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or just fix the Firefox bug?
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VolanicEruptor
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December 20, 2013, 06:02:26 AM |
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362026341 date 2013-12-19 23:20:53 user id 313439 payout multiplier 1.1x stake 0.009 BTC profit -0.009 BTC chance to win 90 % target < 90.00 00 lucky number 93.51 19 result lose hash of server seed 44fc73fc99e564106701e43bc97cda8dd9cdd3aadf55b0e06fd6ce0b04d4c2d1 server seed not yet published client seed 461476507493319562684790 nonce 107 betid 362024703 date 2013-12-19 23:20:13 user id 313439 payout multiplier 1.1x stake 0.4 BTC profit -0.4 BTC chance to win 90 % target < 90.00 00 lucky number 99.15 68 result lose hash of server seed 44fc73fc99e564106701e43bc97cda8dd9cdd3aadf55b0e06fd6ce0b04d4c2d1 server seed not yet published client seed 461476507493319562684790 nonce 106 Can somebody verify those to be fair? I must have rolled over 30 times @ 10% and won nothing. and then the last two bets which are pasted above @ 90% were both losers. I hope someone finds a way to destroy JD
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organofcorti
Donator
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Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
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December 20, 2013, 06:32:00 AM |
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Can somebody verify those to be fair? I must have rolled over 30 times @ 10% and won nothing. and then the last two bets which are pasted above @ 90% were both losers. I hope someone finds a way to destroy JD I can't verify the fairness, but you're only a bit unlucky. 30 losses in a row (or more) at 10% will happen about 5% of the time, and 2 losses in a row (or more) at 90% will happen about 1% of the time. A bit unlucky, but not extremely so. Sorry about your losses.
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Rannasha
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December 20, 2013, 06:39:50 AM |
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Can somebody verify those to be fair? I must have rolled over 30 times @ 10% and won nothing. and then the last two bets which are pasted above @ 90% were both losers. I hope someone finds a way to destroy JD You need to generate a new server seed so that the website will display the previous one used for these rolls. Hit the Randomize button on the site, then open these bet-links again.
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TheNuts23
Newbie
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Activity: 45
Merit: 0
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December 20, 2013, 08:53:48 PM |
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I would like the ability to increase my allocated risk when investing, Instead of .5% the option upto 5% would be beneficial for myself.
Is this something that could be implemented?
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maqifrnswa
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December 20, 2013, 11:05:00 PM |
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I would like the ability to increase my allocated risk when investing, Instead of .5% the option upto 5% would be beneficial for myself.
Is this something that could be implemented?
While a good feature, you should read about expected return when you wager > 100% Kelly.
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TheNuts23
Newbie
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Activity: 45
Merit: 0
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December 21, 2013, 04:45:31 AM |
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I would like the ability to increase my allocated risk when investing, Instead of .5% the option upto 5% would be beneficial for myself.
Is this something that could be implemented?
While a good feature, you should read about expected return when you wager > 100% Kelly. Yes this is a good point, I myself would be willing to top up my investment on just dice. Maybe if it was implemented as an advanced feature with a warning.
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Dabs
Legendary
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Activity: 3416
Merit: 1912
The Concierge of Crypto
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December 21, 2013, 05:24:46 AM |
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server seed not yet published
server seed not yet published
You need to generate a new server seed so that the website will display the previous one used for these rolls. Hit the Randomize button on the site, then open these bet-links again.
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VolanicEruptor
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December 21, 2013, 06:03:23 AM |
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server seed not yet published
server seed not yet published
You need to generate a new server seed so that the website will display the previous one used for these rolls. Hit the Randomize button on the site, then open these bet-links again.
There we go... 362026341 date 2013-12-19 23:20:53 user id 313439 payout multiplier 1.1x stake 0.009 BTC profit -0.009 BTC chance to win 90 % target < 90.00 00 lucky number 93.51 19 result lose hash of server seed 44fc73fc99e564106701e43bc97cda8dd9cdd3aadf55b0e06fd6ce0b04d4c2d1 server seed 6pds2ky9AmcI2DgAlT_S6r4y1RmH4qPoaITE7OkG3XFeMZCfr0_eHd8AGzL1Htdw client seed 461476507493319562684790 nonce 107 362024703 date 2013-12-19 23:20:13 user id 313439 payout multiplier 1.1x stake 0.4 BTC profit -0.4 BTC chance to win 90 % target < 90.00 00 lucky number 99.15 68 result lose hash of server seed 44fc73fc99e564106701e43bc97cda8dd9cdd3aadf55b0e06fd6ce0b04d4c2d1 server seed 6pds2ky9AmcI2DgAlT_S6r4y1RmH4qPoaITE7OkG3XFeMZCfr0_eHd8AGzL1Htdw client seed 461476507493319562684790 nonce 106 other than trusting that it says "lose", how can i double check these
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Mitchell
Legendary
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Activity: 4004
Merit: 2207
Verified awesomeness ✔
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December 21, 2013, 12:04:07 PM |
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other than trusting that it says "lose", how can i double check these
You can check it using the hash of server seed, server seed, client seed and nonce. Here is a verifier: click. I hope someone finds a way to destroy JD Why do you even gamble somewhere when you don't understand the provably fair mechanism?
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Rannasha
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December 21, 2013, 12:17:27 PM |
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other than trusting that it says "lose", how can i double check these
You can check it using the hash of server seed, server seed, client seed and nonce. Here is a verifier: click. This verifier uses the old roll-generation algorithm. Dooglus changed it a while ago.
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Mitchell
Legendary
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Activity: 4004
Merit: 2207
Verified awesomeness ✔
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December 21, 2013, 12:19:48 PM |
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other than trusting that it says "lose", how can i double check these
You can check it using the hash of server seed, server seed, client seed and nonce. Here is a verifier: click. This verifier uses the old roll-generation algorithm. Dooglus changed it a while ago. Really? Oh, well, could you link another one then?
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Rannasha
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December 21, 2013, 12:21:27 PM |
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other than trusting that it says "lose", how can i double check these
You can check it using the hash of server seed, server seed, client seed and nonce. Here is a verifier: click. This verifier uses the old roll-generation algorithm. Dooglus changed it a while ago. Really? Oh, well, could you link another one then? I just updated the one you linked with the new implementation detailed in the "Fair?" tab of JD: http://jsfiddle.net/KWAnw/1/It correctly verifies the rolls VolcanicEruptor posted.
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Mitchell
Legendary
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Activity: 4004
Merit: 2207
Verified awesomeness ✔
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December 21, 2013, 12:23:43 PM |
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other than trusting that it says "lose", how can i double check these
You can check it using the hash of server seed, server seed, client seed and nonce. Here is a verifier: click. This verifier uses the old roll-generation algorithm. Dooglus changed it a while ago. Really? Oh, well, could you link another one then? I just updated the one you linked with the new implementation detailed in the "Fair?" tab of JD: http://jsfiddle.net/KWAnw/1/It correctly verifies the rolls VolcanicEruptor posted. Alright. I am going to safe that one then
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