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Author Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game  (Read 434588 times)
dooglus
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June 22, 2014, 01:55:18 AM
 #4521

I also liked the response to the people who assumed that you were nakowa. Basically your defenders said that dooglus isn't that dumb. If he were going to steal, he wouldn't do it by blatantly assaulting the bank.

Right, so at the next level up, it would make sense to be nakowa, because it's so obvious nobody would believe it!

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June 22, 2014, 02:18:51 AM
 #4522

I also liked the response to the people who assumed that you were nakowa. Basically your defenders said that dooglus isn't that dumb. If he were going to steal, he wouldn't do it by blatantly assaulting the bank.

Right, so at the next level up, it would make sense to be nakowa, because it's so obvious nobody would believe it!

Maybe we're ALL satoshi Nakowa!
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June 22, 2014, 03:48:29 AM
 #4523

I also liked the response to the people who assumed that you were nakowa. Basically your defenders said that dooglus isn't that dumb. If he were going to steal, he wouldn't do it by blatantly assaulting the bank.

Right, so at the next level up, it would make sense to be nakowa, because it's so obvious nobody would believe it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_eZmEiyTo0&feature=player_detailpage#t=83
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June 22, 2014, 04:18:50 AM
 #4524

I also liked the response to the people who assumed that you were nakowa. Basically your defenders said that dooglus isn't that dumb. If he were going to steal, he wouldn't do it by blatantly assaulting the bank.

Right, so at the next level up, it would make sense to be nakowa, because it's so obvious nobody would believe it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_eZmEiyTo0&feature=player_detailpage#t=83


I Google'd "nakowa" to see if it was an Australian name (sounds japanese to me, but you never know) so that I could make a terrible joke.

Instead I found it has made Urban Dictionary as multiple nouns, all based on the just-dice player.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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June 22, 2014, 04:21:08 AM
 #4525

I also liked the response to the people who assumed that you were nakowa. Basically your defenders said that dooglus isn't that dumb. If he were going to steal, he wouldn't do it by blatantly assaulting the bank.

Right, so at the next level up, it would make sense to be nakowa, because it's so obvious nobody would believe it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_eZmEiyTo0&feature=player_detailpage#t=83


I Google'd "nakowa" to see if it was an Australian name (sounds japanese to me, but you never know) so that I could make a terrible joke.

Instead I found it has made Urban Dictionary as multiple nouns, all based on the just-dice player.

I love it! "The fucker went full nakowa and busted." We could also say he nakowa'd the investors.
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June 22, 2014, 04:42:27 AM
 #4526

I also liked the response to the people who assumed that you were nakowa. Basically your defenders said that dooglus isn't that dumb. If he were going to steal, he wouldn't do it by blatantly assaulting the bank.

Right, so at the next level up, it would make sense to be nakowa, because it's so obvious nobody would believe it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_eZmEiyTo0&feature=player_detailpage#t=83


I Google'd "nakowa" to see if it was an Australian name (sounds japanese to me, but you never know) so that I could make a terrible joke.

Instead I found it has made Urban Dictionary as multiple nouns, all based on the just-dice player.


Go on. Make the joke anyway. Can't be more terrible than half the jokes I regret posting on this forum.

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June 22, 2014, 07:15:08 AM
 #4527

I also liked the response to the people who assumed that you were nakowa. Basically your defenders said that dooglus isn't that dumb. If he were going to steal, he wouldn't do it by blatantly assaulting the bank.

Right, so at the next level up, it would make sense to be nakowa, because it's so obvious nobody would believe it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_eZmEiyTo0&feature=player_detailpage#t=83


I Google'd "nakowa" to see if it was an Australian name (sounds japanese to me, but you never know) so that I could make a terrible joke.

Instead I found it has made Urban Dictionary as multiple nouns, all based on the just-dice player.

That was a fun one
Sometimes you just read something that makes you smile a little hehe.
Soon I will be afraid of the N-Weapon
The Nakowa Bomb ^_^
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June 22, 2014, 11:48:29 AM
 #4528


That movie is hysterical. Cheesy

I wonder if there is a table with the amount of profit per day (like wagered per day). I would be curious to see how often gamblers lost 10% (even with small amounts).

Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Shakespeare
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June 22, 2014, 02:21:27 PM
 #4529

and and and... and... the list looks endless...

Did you see this list?

The 1300 BTC snafu is the 26th biggest "incident" on the list.

No, interesting list. But i think the snafu shouldnt really be part of it. The coins werent stolen. A roll-back means something different.

* It was an error
* No theft, nobody lost real 1300BTC
* You were honest and spoke with the shareholders
* The shareholders wanted it this way

So i dont see it justified being in this list. I might be wrong though about what happened.

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June 22, 2014, 02:53:07 PM
 #4530

No, interesting list. But i think the snafu shouldnt really be part of it. The coins werent stolen. A roll-back means something different.

* It was an error
* No theft, nobody lost real 1300BTC
* You were honest and spoke with the shareholders
* The shareholders wanted it this way

So i dont see it justified being in this list. I might be wrong though about what happened.
1. You could say those coins were basically stolen, but have been subsequently lost: while the net difference was ~0, since they had been wagered the thief would "owe" the casino those coins.
2. This would only apply if "assuming the thief won instead of losing, he would have been able to withdraw".
3. But if he won he likely wouldn't have been able to withdraw more than the hot-wallet, since doog would have noticed something wrong before processing the withdrawal request.
4. But if (3) happened, this would have caused an even greater scandal for the casino, causing fear not to the investors (like it happened) but to the players, which is much worse.
5. So you could say that the actual amount stolen was "the hot wallet + the missed fees + the hipotetical damage caused in (4)".
6. Since the hipotetical damage is near-impossible to calculate, I'd go the easy route and just assume he stole the involved (1300 BTC) amount and be done with it.

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June 22, 2014, 04:11:23 PM
 #4531

Let us take a look into the past of Just-Dice!

I'm torn.  I want people to understand about probability and not be dumb about things, but I also want the site to be profitable.

I guess the traditional casino operator does everything he can to trick the player into playing.  I don't want to be that guy.

Johnqat93 winning the design contest for a new logo: http://99designs.ch/logo-design/contests/logo-wanted-dice-240815

Here is the current China-site: http://www.btc-dice.com/

New site design by TempleRunAI: http://i.imgur.com/BrfTdIi.png

Source code found here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg2840579#msg2840579

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dooglus
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June 22, 2014, 08:40:10 PM
 #4532

I wonder if there is a table with the amount of profit per day (like wagered per day). I would be curious to see how often gamblers lost 10% (even with small amounts).

There is now - I added 'site profit' to the 'wagered per day' report.

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June 23, 2014, 12:12:07 AM
 #4533

2014-06-16 - 2014-06-23


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June 23, 2014, 12:13:12 AM
 #4534



A pretty good week this week, returning 0.83% to anyone who was with us all week, and somehow holding on to 2.5% of the total amount wagered:



Quote
Apr 21 2014     1.01%   135.28%
Apr 28 2014     0.85%   136.43%
May  5 2014     0.56%   137.20%
May 12 2014     0.32%   137.63%
May 19 2014     1.05%   139.07%
May 26 2014     0.35%   139.56%
Jun  2 2014     0.22%   139.87%
Jun  9 2014     2.06%   142.75%
Jun 16 2014     0.22%   143.06%
Jun 23 2014     0.83%   144.25%

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June 23, 2014, 12:17:49 AM
 #4535

There is now - I added 'site profit' to the 'wagered per day' report.

The "biggest bets" report now lists the individual biggest bets over various time periods too.

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June 23, 2014, 03:25:32 AM
 #4536

There is now - I added 'site profit' to the 'wagered per day' report.

That is certainly an eye-opener, and puts a lot of doubt on the reliance of casinos on whales. You profitability is much higher in the latter part of the year, with much lower wagering.

115 days 40 BTC profit per day 36,088 wagered per day
221 days 58 BTC profit per day 4,668 wagered per day 

Your return on any given day ranges from 18.73% to -12.60%


Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Shakespeare
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June 23, 2014, 05:33:22 AM
 #4537

That is certainly an eye-opener, and puts a lot of doubt on the reliance of casinos on whales. You profitability is much higher in the latter part of the year, with much lower wagering.

That's because we had one huge whale and he kicked our asses...  Smiley

We did better once he stopped playing, it's true.

Your return on any given day ranges from 18.73% to -12.60%

That's profit as a percentage of the amount wagered?

I try to use "return" to mean the profit as a percentage of the bankroll, because that's the return the people bankrolling the site get.  If only 1 BTC is bet one day and the bet loses, that's a 100% profit in terms of the amount wagered, but approximately 0% return to the bankrollers. (100 * 1/50000 ~= 0)

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   1% House Edge
PacoMartin
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June 23, 2014, 11:39:53 AM
Last edit: June 23, 2014, 01:45:54 PM by PacoMartin
 #4538

That's because we had one huge whale and he kicked our asses...  Smiley
We did better once he stopped playing, it's true.

I am trying to guess how much you make on big bets from gamers other than nakowa,

Convention always say that casinos need whales to make a good profit. But that's not always true in B&M. Sometimes very homely little casinos with very loyal customers make superb profits.

That's profit as a percentage of the amount wagered?

I will use Profit/Wagered (P/W). In the first year there were 22 days with P/W over 7%, and only 9 with P/W under 7%.

The big money gaming days are prevalent, but not dominant. The date: Fri, Oct 4, 13 is when 'mechs' lost his 7000 BTC. None of them obviously seem like days Nakowa was playing.

Yet those 22 days add up to 18,515 BTC profit, which is almost as high as the total profit of the year at 18,940 BTC.


   Date      Profit/Wagered      Profit      Wagered   
   07/07/2013      18.73%      750      4,004   
   04/03/2014      16.65%      445      2,674   
   01/08/2014      12.99%      1,849      14,229   
   06/06/2014      12.92%      744      5,756   
   07/04/2013      12.42%      380      3,062   
   12/30/2013      9.57%      872      9,116   
   11/28/2013      9.50%      270      2,847   
   12/14/2013      9.34%      2,308      24,720   
   04/19/2014      9.15%      208      2,269   
   01/22/2014      9.10%      512      5,628   
   01/26/2014      8.80%      2,226      25,306   
   10/04/2013      8.79%      5,608      63,819   
   02/04/2014      8.11%      205      2,524   
   04/25/2014      8.08%      181      2,239   
   09/08/2013      8.08%      416      5,151   
   12/28/2013      8.06%      240      2,975   
   12/08/2013      7.91%      405      5,121   
   12/22/2013      7.69%      224      2,915   
   03/18/2014      7.45%      108      1,446   
   07/09/2013      7.31%      259      3,538   
   05/17/2014      7.18%      234      3,266   
   06/23/2013      7.03%      71      1,003   
                        
   06/22/2013      -7.31%      -58      796   
   01/23/2014      -7.38%      -415      5,628   
   12/26/2013      -7.77%      -174      2,242   
   08/24/2013      -8.73%      -224      2,563   
   12/06/2013      -8.90%      -295      3,310   
   12/15/2013      -10.43%      -299      2,871   
   01/12/2014      -11.71%      -197      1,685   
   01/14/2014      -12.32%      -194      1,571   
   12/29/2013      -12.60%      -339      2,691   
                              

Your 11 days with profit over 1000 BTC add up to 23,600 BTC.

   Date      Profit/Wagered      Profit      Wagered   
   10/04/13      8.79%      5,608      63,819   
   09/25/13      1.70%      3,006      176,993   
   10/11/13      2.70%      2,722      100,678   
   12/14/13      9.34%      2,308      24,720   
   01/26/14      8.80%      2,226      25,306   
   01/08/14      12.99%      1,849      14,229   
   09/27/13      4.29%      1,418      33,064   
   07/24/13      5.31%      1,284      24,167   
   07/20/13      5.56%      1,092      19,642   
   09/26/13      3.81%      1,078      28,255   
   02/14/14      4.06%      1,048      25,835   
                        
   01/25/14      -6.58%      -1,023      15,531   
   10/03/13      -3.00%      -1,419      47,313   
   09/29/13      -0.15%      -2,264      1,553,358   
   09/22/13      -5.59%      -2,345      41,941   
   07/13/13      -2.90%      -2,485      85,587   
   09/21/13      -1.82%      -2,566      140,897   
   09/23/13      -1.20%      -4,607      384,966   

Some sort of moving average might be helpful. You've had that below .40% up for over 6 months, and it is always influenced by events last fall. You may want to indicate P/W for the last 30 days.

   Date      P/W 30 day moving average   
   4/30/14      1.864%   
   5/1/14      2.024%   
   5/2/14      2.125%   
   5/3/14      1.629%   
   5/4/14      1.660%   
   5/5/14      1.747%   
   5/6/14      1.706%   
   5/7/14      1.472%   
   5/8/14      1.700%   
   5/9/14      1.774%   
   5/10/14      1.832%   
   5/11/14      1.840%   
   5/12/14      1.938%   
   5/13/14      1.882%   
   5/14/14      2.066%   
   5/15/14      1.767%   
   5/16/14      2.109%   
   5/17/14      2.485%   
   5/18/14      2.454%   
   5/19/14      1.995%   
   5/20/14      1.847%   
   5/21/14      1.885%   
   5/22/14      1.755%   
   5/23/14      1.652%   
   5/24/14      1.705%   
   5/25/14      1.676%   
   5/26/14      1.670%   
   5/27/14      1.620%   
   5/28/14      1.531%   
   5/29/14      1.657%   
   5/30/14      1.549%   
   5/31/14      1.427%   
   6/1/14      1.433%   
   6/2/14      1.420%   
   6/3/14      1.480%   
   6/4/14      1.509%   
   6/5/14      1.506%   
   6/6/14      2.560%   
   6/7/14      2.608%   
   6/8/14      2.654%   
   6/9/14      2.639%   
   6/10/14      2.555%   
   6/11/14      2.664%   
   6/12/14      2.479%   
   6/13/14      2.628%   
   6/14/14      2.557%   
   6/15/14      2.482%   
   6/16/14      2.275%   
   6/17/14      2.130%   
   6/18/14      2.220%   
   6/19/14      2.601%   
                  

Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Shakespeare
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June 23, 2014, 07:19:57 PM
 #4539

No, interesting list. But i think the snafu shouldnt really be part of it. The coins werent stolen. A roll-back means something different.

* It was an error
* No theft, nobody lost real 1300BTC
* You were honest and spoke with the shareholders
* The shareholders wanted it this way

So i dont see it justified being in this list. I might be wrong though about what happened.
1. You could say those coins were basically stolen, but have been subsequently lost: while the net difference was ~0, since they had been wagered the thief would "owe" the casino those coins.
2. This would only apply if "assuming the thief won instead of losing, he would have been able to withdraw".
3. But if he won he likely wouldn't have been able to withdraw more than the hot-wallet, since doog would have noticed something wrong before processing the withdrawal request.
4. But if (3) happened, this would have caused an even greater scandal for the casino, causing fear not to the investors (like it happened) but to the players, which is much worse.
5. So you could say that the actual amount stolen was "the hot wallet + the missed fees + the hipotetical damage caused in (4)".
6. Since the hipotetical damage is near-impossible to calculate, I'd go the easy route and just assume he stole the involved (1300 BTC) amount and be done with it.


One might think so but it runs under the premise Just-Dice scammed while in fact just-dice didnt do it. I lets JD look worse than it is. Its very different to "Labcoin scammed some thousand Bitcoins". But it looks the same in the list. One needs to learn the real things behind to justify it. But even then its a hypothetical loss only.

I only want to say that it looks like putting small timmy into jail to the murderers and thieves only because he forgot to do his homework in school. Wink

Please ALWAYS contact me through bitcointalk pm before sending someone coins.
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June 23, 2014, 07:23:22 PM
 #4540

Just received news that J-D is closing down, can someone else confirm?

If so, this is truly the end of an era.
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