Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[dooglus]

I'm done emptying the cold wallet - here's a signed transaction that sends out the last 500 BTC.

Does someone want to broadcast it for me?

Code:

010000000179f8ff93bf3d7d37ec245facb2dd1b27839b346b72c20d8db472fd29f52322fc000000006a47304402204f53eb88682d52db8dfd5f458a3ff6a10ff5157dadccc3d3b16fb776a2afa146022079d65e34ab61da1765114b2bc334960493b1c1170678f23d3395972a19ec52950121031c6326a5fb6e7d64946dfa3fbeabe3ed045a91486f1530be0f578a2d3ea5b141ffffffff0100743ba40b0000001976a9140b31340661bb7a4165736ca2fc6509164b1dc96488ac00000000

Edit: (3 minutes later) that was quick!

[Bizmark13]

I paid close to 20% commission.

This is because I paid commission on earnings which then disappeared during a whale run. (and I significantly reduced my investment - so it would take a while to come back)

Look at these 24 bets. They are all characterized by someone betting a large amount of coin, at a probability of player winning of 73%-98%, and then losing it all. More than likely these are not the first bet tried at these odds, as a little success here can make you feel like you are printing money with the touch of a mouse click. The potential profit is the profit they would have earned had they won. The sum of these bets accounts for 78% of the casino win for the year.

Bet/Loss	Prob Win	Pot Profit
7,016	96.20%	204.22
512	74.33%	169.93
512	76.33%	152.06
550	78.50%	143.63
556	79.50%	136.45
256	73.33%	89.62
256	73.33%	89.62
256	73.33%	89.62
256	73.33%	89.62
320	79.50%	78.49
320	79.50%	78.49
219	75.00%	70.00
252	78.50%	65.75
640	90.00%	64.00
230	79.50%	56.48
400	88.00%	50.00
416	90.00%	41.62
395	90.50%	37.10
222	86.00%	33.61
300	90.00%	30.00
300	90.00%	30.00
235	90.00%	23.50
250	95.00%	10.53
210	98.00%	2.14
14,880	87.66%	1,836.47

                     

A total of almost 4 million bitcoins wagered at the beginning of the year produced no profit. All profit of 19000 BTC came from the 1.3 million bitcoins wagered in the latter part of the year.

It is easy to make adjustments after the fact, but I think with a MaxProfit/bet of closer to 100 BTC, and a bankroll of around 20K the site would have made about the same amount of profit. Happier investors because they get a much higher return, and a much less frightening ride.

Someone actually lost a 98% bet? And 7k BTC on a 96% bet? That's crazy. Seems so unlikely that it would fail.

[kuji kiri]

Someone actually lost a 98% bet? And 7k BTC on a 96% bet? That's crazy. Seems so unlikely that it would fail.

They bet such large amounts because these +90% gives them a false sense of security.

[PacoMartin]

They bet such large amounts because these +90% gives them a false sense of security.

Especially since they do it over and over again and win, so it starts to feel like you are printing money. The story behind that bet was that he started as an investor with 2200 BTC. He lost 500 BTC of his investment when Nakowa was on a winning streak. Then he withdrew his remaining investment (2200-500=1700 BTC) and wrote his address on paper.

The paper ended up in the dumpster, and he spent a long time retrieving it. The pain and anguish made him reckless and he made 26 bets with large probabilities of winning increasing his 1700 BTC to 7000 BTC.

He started to withdraw the money, and sometimes in the course of a 2 hour period he put it back into play and on the 27th play he lost it all. His public statement was "Ouch!", and "at least I set a record". Considering those 7K BTC briefly surged to over $7 million and would be worth well over $4 million today, I would consider him a zen Buddhist.

[Lohoris]

Someone actually lost a 98% bet? And 7k BTC on a 96% bet? That's crazy. Seems so unlikely that it would fail.

You lose a 98% bet 2% of the time.
That is, 1 every 50.
If there were just 50 bets per day on the site, on average 1 would still lose, every day.
Do your math.

[dooglus]

Someone actually lost a 98% bet? And 7k BTC on a 96% bet? That's crazy. Seems so unlikely that it would fail.

You lose a 98% bet 2% of the time.
That is, 1 every 50.
If there were just 50 bets per day on the site, on average 1 would still lose, every day.
Do your math.

"Someone lost 7k on a 96% bet? Wow!"

It seems amazing until you realise that he made 27 such bets in a row, and won the first 26 of them...

 1   2013-10-02 07:34:43 #148575723: 1767.51587669 @ 92%    hi: lucky:19.0776 profit:  134.48490980 bal:1902.00078649 n: 58   134.48478460
 2   2013-10-02 07:34:53 #148575921: 1767.51587669 @ 92%    hi: lucky:12.2165 profit:  134.48490980 bal:2036.48569629 n: 59   268.96969440
 3   2013-10-02 07:35:39 #148576957: 1767.51587669 @ 92%    hi: lucky:73.9495 profit:  134.48490980 bal:2170.97060609 n: 60   403.45460420
 4   2013-10-02 07:42:12 #148584193: 2170.97057849 @ 92%    hi: lucky:60.4122 profit:  165.18255156 bal:2336.15313005 n:114   568.63712816
 5   2013-10-02 07:43:30 #148585325: 2336.15313005 @ 92%    hi: lucky:79.5807 profit:  177.75078975 bal:2513.90391980 n:115   746.38791791
 6   2013-10-02 07:48:30 #148590355: 2513.90372740 @ 92%    hi: lucky:52.1169 profit:  191.27529235 bal:2705.17901975 n:119   937.66301786
 7   2013-10-02 07:49:13 #148590882: 2513.90372740 @ 92%    hi: lucky:93.7250 profit:  191.27529235 bal:2896.45431210 n:120  1128.93831021
 8   2013-10-02 07:51:02 #148591949: 2896.45431590 @ 92%    hi: lucky:57.2928 profit:  220.38240367 bal:3116.83671957 n:126  1349.32071768
 9   2013-10-02 08:01:57 #148601047: 3116.83674877 @ 93%    hi: lucky:92.4414 profit:  201.08624487 bal:3317.92299364 n:145  1550.40699175
10   2013-10-02 08:12:54 #148612542: 3317.92314519 @ 93%    hi: lucky:82.9679 profit:  214.05956096 bal:3531.98270615 n:186  1764.46670426
11   2013-10-02 08:19:29 #148618898: 3533.97982021 @ 95%    hi: lucky:45.0747 profit:  148.79913916 bal:3682.77895937 n:236  1915.26295748
12   2013-10-02 08:21:04 #148620446: 3682.77897204 @ 95%    hi: lucky:56.5205 profit:  155.06436614 bal:3837.84333818 n:241  2070.32733629
13   2013-10-03 22:16:36 #151396071: 3846.94273818 @ 93.01% hi: lucky:41.2406 profit:  247.74957520 bal:4094.69231338 n:308  2318.07691149
14   2013-10-03 22:16:56 #151396629: 3846.94273818 @ 93.03% hi: lucky:90.6891 profit:  246.86927929 bal:4341.56159267 n:309  2564.94619078
15   2013-10-03 22:17:12 #151397027: 3846.94273818 @ 93.09% hi: lucky:78.7297 profit:  244.23066127 bal:4585.79225394 n:310  2809.17685205
16   2013-10-03 22:17:36 #151397665: 3846.94273818 @ 93.2%  hi: lucky:33.1190 profit:  239.40201721 bal:4825.19427115 n:311  3048.57886926
17   2013-10-03 22:21:15 #151403104: 4825.19427115 @ 94.3%  hi: lucky:40.0573 profit:  240.49216990 bal:5065.68644105 n:314  3289.07103916
18   2013-10-03 22:24:13 #151406494: 5065.68648587 @ 94.55% hi: lucky:17.7951 profit:  238.41673708 bal:5304.10322295 n:327  3527.48782106
19   2013-10-03 22:27:04 #151408897: 5304.10330755 @ 95.09% hi: lucky:05.4491 profit:  218.09910565 bal:5522.20241320 n:346  3745.58701131
20   2013-10-04 05:01:01 #151911402: 5519.94840009 @ 95.21% hi: lucky:97.9878 profit:  219.73115077 bal:5739.67955086 n:530  3965.31812092
21   2013-10-04 05:01:05 #151911481: 5519.94840009 @ 95.21% hi: lucky:59.0951 profit:  219.73115077 bal:5959.41070163 n:531  4185.04927169
22   2013-10-04 05:02:56 #151914007: 5959.41068558 @ 95.51% hi: lucky:26.6702 profit:  217.76091885 bal:6177.17160443 n:556  4402.81017449
23   2013-10-04 05:04:58 #151915792: 6177.17161758 @ 95.71% hi: lucky:47.1520 profit:  212.33823588 bal:6389.50985346 n:589  4615.14842352
24   2013-10-04 05:08:04 #151919268: 6389.50987008 @ 95.81% hi: lucky:98.4443 profit:  212.73911449 bal:6602.24898457 n:625  4827.88755463
25   2013-10-04 05:11:39 #151923159: 6602.24886053 @ 95.95% hi: lucky:34.1439 profit:  209.86825940 bal:6812.11711993 n:682  5037.75568999
26   2013-10-04 05:14:24 #151926184: 6812.11702310 @ 96.04% hi: lucky:09.6031 profit:  209.95278458 bal:7022.06980768 n:685  5247.70837774
27   2013-10-04 07:22:09 #152097271: 7016.28891331 @ 96.2%  hi: lucky:03.5475 profit:-7016.28891331 bal:   0.00000000 n:748 -1768.58056457

[infested999]

Jesus why did he keep on upping the bet amount. If he just kept it at 1767.51587669 he could have still walked away with over 1902 BTC after the loss.

Code:

26   2013-10-04 05:14:24 #151926184: 6812.11702310 @ 96.04% hi: lucky:09.6031 profit:  209.95278458 bal:7022.06980768 n:685  5247.70837774
27   2013-10-04 07:22:09 #152097271: 7016.28891331 @ 96.2%  hi: lucky:03.5475 profit:-7016.28891331 bal:   0.00000000 n:748 -1768.58056457

bal:7022.06980768 bet: 7016.28891331 bal:   0.00000000

How did this happen? 7022.06980768-7016.28891331=0.00000000 ?

[ranlo]

Jesus why did he keep on upping the bet amount. If he just kept it at 1767.51587669 he could have still walked away with over 1902 BTC after the loss.

Code:

26   2013-10-04 05:14:24 #151926184: 6812.11702310 @ 96.04% hi: lucky:09.6031 profit:  209.95278458 bal:7022.06980768 n:685  5247.70837774
27   2013-10-04 07:22:09 #152097271: 7016.28891331 @ 96.2%  hi: lucky:03.5475 profit:-7016.28891331 bal:   0.00000000 n:748 -1768.58056457

bal:7022.06980768 bet: 7016.28891331 bal:   0.00000000

How did this happen? 7022.06980768-7016.28891331=0.00000000 ?

Probably invested the winnings for those 2 hours, then divested to give it another go. The increase in balance would be from the profit.

[infested999]

Jesus why did he keep on upping the bet amount. If he just kept it at 1767.51587669 he could have still walked away with over 1902 BTC after the loss.

Code:

26   2013-10-04 05:14:24 #151926184: 6812.11702310 @ 96.04% hi: lucky:09.6031 profit:  209.95278458 bal:7022.06980768 n:685  5247.70837774
27   2013-10-04 07:22:09 #152097271: 7016.28891331 @ 96.2%  hi: lucky:03.5475 profit:-7016.28891331 bal:   0.00000000 n:748 -1768.58056457

bal:7022.06980768 bet: 7016.28891331 bal:   0.00000000

How did this happen? 7022.06980768-7016.28891331=0.00000000 ?

Probably invested the winnings for those 2 hours, then divested to give it another go. The increase in balance would be from the profit.

Yup I just noticed that there are other bets that are skipped in that list. The nonce jumps from 685 to 748

[dooglus]

Jesus why did he keep on upping the bet amount. If he just kept it at 1767.51587669 he could have still walked away with over 1902 BTC after the loss.

Code:

26   2013-10-04 05:14:24 #151926184: 6812.11702310 @ 96.04% hi: lucky:09.6031 profit:  209.95278458 bal:7022.06980768 n:685  5247.70837774
27   2013-10-04 07:22:09 #152097271: 7016.28891331 @ 96.2%  hi: lucky:03.5475 profit:-7016.28891331 bal:   0.00000000 n:748 -1768.58056457

bal:7022.06980768 bet: 7016.28891331 bal:   0.00000000

How did this happen? 7022.06980768-7016.28891331=0.00000000 ?

Notice the "n:" values - that's the nonce. He made a lot of "dust" bets between the big ones. He also kept withdrawing his whole balance to the "mechs" account, and redepositing it to the "fuckit" account. The "mechs" account was blocked from betting.

Here's a list of the deposits and withdrawals on the "fuckit" account"

  Wed Oct  2 07:32:05 2013  deposit 1767.51600189
  Wed Oct  2 08:22:24 2013 withdraw 3837.84333818
  Thu Oct  3 22:07:25 2013  deposit    9.10000000
  Thu Oct  3 22:14:23 2013  deposit 3837.84273818
  Thu Oct  3 22:32:01 2013 withdraw 5522.20241320
  Fri Oct  4 04:57:44 2013  deposit 5519.94844125
  Fri Oct  4 05:15:47 2013 withdraw 7022.06980768
  Fri Oct  4 07:19:13 2013  deposit 7016.28894231

[infested999]

He made a lot of "dust" bets between the big ones.

Man don't you know how to win at dice? You have to make a whole bunch of 0 bets to use up all of your bad luck reserves, then when you have full good luck you make the big bet. Jeez it's like it's you don't even know how to calculate the chance of getting <50 after getting <50 26 times!

[dooglus]

How did this happen? 7022.06980768-7016.28891331=0.00000000 ?

Here's a list of the deposits and withdrawals on the "fuckit" account"

  Wed Oct  2 07:32:05 2013  deposit 1767.51600189
  Wed Oct  2 08:22:24 2013 withdraw 3837.84333818
  Thu Oct  3 22:07:25 2013  deposit    9.10000000
  Thu Oct  3 22:14:23 2013  deposit 3837.84273818
  Thu Oct  3 22:32:01 2013 withdraw 5522.20241320
  Fri Oct  4 04:57:44 2013  deposit 5519.94844125
  Fri Oct  4 05:15:47 2013 withdraw 7022.06980768
  Fri Oct  4 07:19:13 2013  deposit 7016.28894231

OK, so now I see what happened.  He withdrew 7022 to the 'mechs' account, invested it, and someone won a bit. By the time he divested, only 7016 was left. Here are the invest/divest/deposit/withdraw actions on the 'mechs' account around the same time:

2013-09-29 22:53:22 divest ALL 1958.21318353 BTC

2013-09-29 23:01:59 invest ALL 1958.21318353 BTC
2013-10-01 01:39:49 divest ALL 1762.68784864 BTC

2013-10-01 01:41:30 invest ALL 1762.68784864 BTC
2013-10-02 04:43:49 divest ALL 1767.51610189 BTC

2013-10-02 04:45:45 withdraw 1767.51610189 BTC

2013-10-03 22:32:47 deposit 5522.20241320 BTC
2013-10-03 22:32:47 invest 5522.2024132 BTC
2013-10-04 04:53:05 divest ALL 5519.948441245403 BTC

2013-10-04 04:56:06 withdraw 5519.94844125 BTC
2013-10-04 05:16:59 deposit 7022.06980768 BTC
2013-10-04 05:16:59 invest 7022.06980768 BTC
2013-10-04 05:27:28 deposit 1 BTC
2013-10-04 05:27:29 invest 1 BTC
2013-10-04 07:15:53 divest ALL 7016.288942310735 BTC
2013-10-04 07:17:42 withdraw 7016.28894231 BTC

[infested999]

2013-10-04 05:16:59 deposit 7022.06980768 BTC
2013-10-04 05:16:59 invest 7022.06980768 BTC
2013-10-04 05:27:28 deposit 1 BTC
2013-10-04 05:27:29 invest 1 BTC
2013-10-04 07:15:53 divest ALL 7016.288942310735 BTC

From 7023 to 7016 within 2 hours. That is some seriously bad luck. I think at the time the price was $100/BTC. He lost $700 in 2 hours just by investing. I can see how you get death threats all day.

[SebastianJu]

2013-10-04 05:16:59 deposit 7022.06980768 BTC
2013-10-04 05:16:59 invest 7022.06980768 BTC
2013-10-04 05:27:28 deposit 1 BTC
2013-10-04 05:27:29 invest 1 BTC
2013-10-04 07:15:53 divest ALL 7016.288942310735 BTC

From 7023 to 7016 within 2 hours. That is some seriously bad luck. I think at the time the price was $100/BTC. He lost $700 in 2 hours just by investing. I can see how you get death threats all day.

This guy is a multi millionaire... i doubt he cares about some measly $700. Thats like investing 1BTC and losing 0.00085BTC...

[freedomno1]

2013-10-04 05:16:59 deposit 7022.06980768 BTC
2013-10-04 05:16:59 invest 7022.06980768 BTC
2013-10-04 05:27:28 deposit 1 BTC
2013-10-04 05:27:29 invest 1 BTC
2013-10-04 07:15:53 divest ALL 7016.288942310735 BTC

From 7023 to 7016 within 2 hours. That is some seriously bad luck. I think at the time the price was $100/BTC. He lost $700 in 2 hours just by investing. I can see how you get death threats all day.

This guy is a multi millionaire... i doubt he cares about some measly $700. Thats like investing 1BTC and losing 0.00085BTC...

Just like pfft I lost a bit of my Bitcoin
That is a whale though so don't think they would cry over that little spilled milk.

[PacoMartin]

From 7023 to 7016 within 2 hours. That is some seriously bad luck. I think at the time the price was $100/BTC. He lost $700 in 2 hours just by investing.

A few days later the bank made 2,722 in one day. Since I am sure betting was not uniformly spread throughout the day some hours may have jumped up 300 BTC. Someone who was invested at 7K BTC would easily have as much as 20% of the Bank. So a change of 7 BTC in two hours would not be particularly shocking.

I can see how you get death threats all day.

Those are the kinds of things that psychotic people say. You need some serious help.

[dooglus]

From 7023 to 7016 within 2 hours. That is some seriously bad luck. I think at the time the price was $100/BTC. He lost $700 in 2 hours just by investing.

I dug up more of the chat surrounding the events. At one point he comments:

2013-10-04 05:34:20 <mechs> wow already lost 3 BTC in my new investment
2013-10-04 05:34:40 <mechs> investing here really does make you a gambler
...
2013-10-04 05:57:31 <mechs> omg, my profits down 5 BTC already - investing is rough

Here's the log: http://pastie.org/pastes/9338997/text

I can see how you get death threats all day.

Those are the kinds of things that psychotic people say. You need some serious help.

Yeah, I thought that was a little odd too. It wasn't me taking his coins after all.

[ranlo]

Jesus why did he keep on upping the bet amount. If he just kept it at 1767.51587669 he could have still walked away with over 1902 BTC after the loss.

Code:

26   2013-10-04 05:14:24 #151926184: 6812.11702310 @ 96.04% hi: lucky:09.6031 profit:  209.95278458 bal:7022.06980768 n:685  5247.70837774
27   2013-10-04 07:22:09 #152097271: 7016.28891331 @ 96.2%  hi: lucky:03.5475 profit:-7016.28891331 bal:   0.00000000 n:748 -1768.58056457

bal:7022.06980768 bet: 7016.28891331 bal:   0.00000000

How did this happen? 7022.06980768-7016.28891331=0.00000000 ?

Notice the "n:" values - that's the nonce. He made a lot of "dust" bets between the big ones. He also kept withdrawing his whole balance to the "mechs" account, and redepositing it to the "fuckit" account. The "mechs" account was blocked from betting.

Here's a list of the deposits and withdrawals on the "fuckit" account"

  Wed Oct  2 07:32:05 2013  deposit 1767.51600189
  Wed Oct  2 08:22:24 2013 withdraw 3837.84333818
  Thu Oct  3 22:07:25 2013  deposit    9.10000000
  Thu Oct  3 22:14:23 2013  deposit 3837.84273818
  Thu Oct  3 22:32:01 2013 withdraw 5522.20241320
  Fri Oct  4 04:57:44 2013  deposit 5519.94844125
  Fri Oct  4 05:15:47 2013 withdraw 7022.06980768
  Fri Oct  4 07:19:13 2013  deposit 7016.28894231

Is the "nonce" just a running total of each person's bets? In that if one is n:15 and the next is n:18, 2 bets were made in between there (#16 and 17)?

[freedomno1]

I can see how you get death threats all day.

Those are the kinds of things that psychotic people say. You need some serious help.

Yeah, I thought that was a little odd too. It wasn't me taking his coins after all.

One of the best things about JD is that their is no person who will kick you out when you win too much.
That and no crazy's demanding for all their money in person but over the internet  
Or they would need to fight every single person who won there  

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

I can see how you get death threats all day.

Those are the kinds of things that psychotic people say. You need some serious help.

Yeah, I thought that was a little odd too. It wasn't me taking his coins after all.

One of the best things about JD is that their is no person who will kick you out when you win too much.
That and no crazy's demanding for all their money in person but over the internet  
Or they would need to fight every single person who won there  

Except the max bet gets changed if you win too much