ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread

[Vbs]

Agreed.  It's not ActM, but iCEDRILL that is imploding!  The 300,00 wall lower than the 7,000,000 is growing as the panic gains momentum and people continue to undercut each other.

bALLBREAKER is running scared and his recent post is definitive proof of this fact.  Fingers crossed that the impending explosion in ActM share price occurs before he manages to sell his iCEDRILL shares.

It's long time he learned an expensive lesson in amatuer trading and his profits taken out of his grubby hands and redistributed into shareholders pockets who believe in our company.

Icedrill was always a bad investment in the current market conjecture. It's too expensive for something that has a very high fail potential if the network difficulty keeps rising at the current rate.

If the share price was like half of what it is, then it could be a nice investment, but at 0.0014-0.0016? No way!

For ActM, even if the incoming Avalons don't show up, there's much money to be made in chip/system sales on the 28nm chip, that's the main benefit on investing into something that doesn't rely on mining profits.

Just look at Asicminer: most of their dividends are already coming from sales profits, not mining. (http://asicminercharts.com/, bottom chart)

[neilol]

I think we are about to see the total hash rate growth rate actually start to cool off in the coming weeks..thoughts?


http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin


Could be totally naive..but you would have to be fairly confident you could compete at a top level to start getting into the mining game now correct? Or will we just have a bunch of idiots come out and run non-profitable operations? Would be good for ACTM hardware sales..

[Vbs]

I think we are about to see the total hash rate growth rate actually start to cool off in the coming weeks..thoughts?


http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin


Could be totally naive..but you would have to be fairly confident you could compete at a top level to start getting into the mining game now correct? Or will we just have a bunch of idiots come out and run non-profitable operations? Would be good for ACTM hardware sales..

No cooling down in the foreseeable future, as that chart is based on GPU efficiency. Things will only start to cool down as all 28nm manufacturers flood the market and push out everything that's less efficient.

https://blockchain.info/stats

Electricity consumption is estimated based on power consumption of 650 Watts per gigahash and electricity price of 15 cent per kilowatt hour. In reality some miners will be more or less efficient.

** For profit margin hardware costs are estimated to be $1000 per gigahash every 2 years, and bandwidth $1 per gigahash per year.

Anyone that gets into the mining game now without some small measure of "future-proof hardware" (whatever that stands for) will be kicked out faster than someone who pays attention to that. All hardware is profitable until it doesn't pay the electricity bill anymore, that's the point where the switch is flipped.

[Minor Miner]

All hardware is profitable until it doesn't pay the electricity bill anymore, that's the point where the switch is flipped.

Almost agree.   But I would argue that marginal value will get low enough, people will shut off sooner.   Like the USB miner that crashes occasionally and has 0.28 GH/s, am I really going to take an hour to get it back mining on a 1 PH/s network?   That is one piece of it that I see that a pure marginal return model does not predict accurately.    Even these effing avalons at some point I could see turning off because the coins are not going to be worth the howling of the fans and the heat pain in the ass.
Then there is the myth about how easy it is to roll out 100TH/s or 500TH/s (lol) mining farms.   Even with 1/2 hour to think about this and the electricity required/cooling required should make most people into doubters.
They will roll out, but not quickly and not without a lot of capital.   Any one ever wonder why FriedCat does not hold 45% of the market?   Or why he sells product? Because he cannot power the boards himself.

[mzog]

All hardware is profitable until it doesn't pay the electricity bill anymore, that's the point where the switch is flipped.

Almost agree.   But I would argue that marginal value will get low enough, people will shut off sooner.   Like the USB miner that crashes occasionally and has 0.28 GH/s, am I really going to take an hour to get it back mining on a 1 PH/s network?   That is one piece of it that I see that a pure marginal return model does not predict accurately.    Even these effing avalons at some point I could see turning off because the coins are not going to be worth the howling of the fans and the heat pain in the ass.
Then there is the myth about how easy it is to roll out 100TH/s or 500TH/s (lol) mining farms.   Even with 1/2 hour to think about this and the electricity required/cooling required should make most people into doubters.
They will roll out, but not quickly and not without a lot of capital.   Any one ever wonder why FriedCat does not hold 45% of the market?   Or why he sells product? Because he cannot power the boards himself.

On this topic, what is the Activemining plan for mining with their machines?

Sure the 28nm will be more efficient, but how much hashing could Ken even operate at his facility?

[kleeck]

All hardware is profitable until it doesn't pay the electricity bill anymore, that's the point where the switch is flipped.

Almost agree.   But I would argue that marginal value will get low enough, people will shut off sooner.   Like the USB miner that crashes occasionally and has 0.28 GH/s, am I really going to take an hour to get it back mining on a 1 PH/s network?   That is one piece of it that I see that a pure marginal return model does not predict accurately.    Even these effing avalons at some point I could see turning off because the coins are not going to be worth the howling of the fans and the heat pain in the ass.
Then there is the myth about how easy it is to roll out 100TH/s or 500TH/s (lol) mining farms.   Even with 1/2 hour to think about this and the electricity required/cooling required should make most people into doubters.
They will roll out, but not quickly and not without a lot of capital.   Any one ever wonder why FriedCat does not hold 45% of the market?   Or why he sells product? Because he cannot power the boards himself.

On this topic, what is the Activemining plan for mining with their machines?

Sure the 28nm will be more efficient, but how much hashing could Ken even operate at his facility?

Presumably, a lot.

He has a space rented at Springfield Underground, an underground data center.

http://www.springnetunderground.net/assets/main.html

Take a peek inside:

http://www.springnetunderground.net/assets/tour.html

[Minor Miner]

On this topic, what is the Activemining plan for mining with their machines?
Sure the 28nm will be more efficient, but how much hashing could Ken even operate at his facility?

This is a very interesting topic.   That is why I wonder.   It is highly likely that the network is 1,000 Th/s (1,000,000 GH/s) in 45 days from now.
So, say you want to be a player like friedcat and have 20%.   With avalon chips drawing 9W per Gh/s, you need 900 kw just to power the avalons to get 10% of the market.  How you going to do that?  lot's of buildings with that power coming in?   How you going to distribute the power?   Oh, and guess how much heat 900 kW of power puts out when it goes into something that basically just heats up?   But to get 20% you need 1800kW PLUS cooling.    Even at 1W, it is an enormous undertaking.    It will be cool to see how people over come these hurdles.   Someone is going to have 500 TH/s rolled out by November?   They best call the electric company now because ordering new transformers takes a while. 

[Vbs]

On this topic, what is the Activemining plan for mining with their machines?
Sure the 28nm will be more efficient, but how much hashing could Ken even operate at his facility?

This is a very interesting topic.   That is why I wonder.   It is highly likely that the network is 1,000 Th/s (1,000,000 GH/s) in 45 days from now.
So, say you want to be a player like friedcat and have 20%.   With avalon chips drawing 9W per Gh/s, you need 900 kw just to power the avalons to get 10% of the market.  How you going to do that?  lot's of buildings with that power coming in?   How you going to distribute the power?   Oh, and guess how much heat 900 kW of power puts out when it goes into something that basically just heats up?   But to get 20% you need 1800kW PLUS cooling.    Even at 1W, it is an enormous undertaking.    It will be cool to see how people over come these hurdles.   Someone is going to have 500 TH/s rolled out by November?   They best call the electric company now because ordering new transformers takes a while.  

Indeed, most of the current mining proposals seem to skimp on that part. The Avalons work at 6.6W/GH/s, so for the 20,000 ordered chips, that's 5640*6.6 = 37,224W or around 41kW on 90% efficient power, a small figure. The current reserved facility is 100ft (30m) underground, naturally achieving a constant 58ºF (14ºC), which saves immensely on cooling costs.

The rest of the mining operation will depend on the number of ordered new Fast-Hash-One chips, although I'm expecting the sales figures will always vastly surpass the mining income. Let's not forget the >$12 million Avalon made in bulk chip sales.

[Ozymandias]

Does Ken plan on running the chips at the stock 282Mhz or will he overclock them to ~350?

[redbeans2012]

Yifu just mentioned that 130k chips went out this week.  Which steamboat group but did ken order from?

[Ozymandias]

Yifu just mentioned that 130k chips went out this week.  Which steamboat group but did ken order from?

On page 1 of this very thread it says we are in steamboat's batch one

[ArcticWolf]

Yifu just mentioned that 130k chips went out this week.  Which steamboat group but did ken order from?

"An order of Avalon chips from steamboat's batch #1, for 68 Klondike-16 boards, rated at 68*16*282 = 307 GH/s;"

[Ozymandias]

Yifu just mentioned that 130k chips went out this week.  Which steamboat group but did ken order from?

"An order of Avalon chips from steamboat's batch #1, for 68 Klondike-16 boards, rated at 68*16*282 = 307 GH/s;"

Again, that's without overclocking, I'm pretty sure we should be able to get 68*16*350 = ~381gh/s, nearly doubling our current hashrate. Then we should have an additional 20,000*350= 7th/s for a total of ~7.8th/s, not too shabby

[karsy]

Good news will be released soon!

[ffssixtynine]

Good news will be released soon!

About Avalon?

[VinceSamios]

Today I was musing over a few mining shares...

ASICMiner have hit their glass ceiling, or don't have far to go
LabCoin is a non-starter because their tech is old (130nm)
IceDrill has too long to wait before they start paying dividends
BTCGarden is obviously no more

But ActiveMining - all the ducks are in a row. Huge growth potential, the technology on the way to reach it, and plenty of hashing power on the way to keep us ticking over in the mean time. It's also nice to receive dividends even at this early stage.

[WikileaksDude]

Today I was musing over a few mining shares...

ASICMiner have hit their glass ceiling, or don't have far to go
LabCoin is a non-starter because their tech is old (130nm)
IceDrill has too long to wait before they start paying dividends
BTCGarden is obviously no more

But ActiveMining - all the ducks are in a row. Huge growth potential, the technology on the way to reach it, and plenty of hashing power on the way to keep us ticking over in the mean time. It's also nice to receive dividends even at this early stage.

Haters gonna hate, like potatoes gonna potate.

[auto2nr1]

Today I was musing over a few mining shares...

ASICMiner have hit their glass ceiling, or don't have far to go
LabCoin is a non-starter because their tech is old (130nm)
IceDrill has too long to wait before they start paying dividends
BTCGarden is obviously no more

But ActiveMining - all the ducks are in a row. Huge growth potential, the technology on the way to reach it, and plenty of hashing power on the way to keep us ticking over in the mean time. It's also nice to receive dividends even at this early stage.

Well said. Let's hope for some good news before the end of the month.

[kleeck]

OK, guys.

I was bored this evening and decided to run my share value through the infamous Vbs projections¹. The results were quite staggering and I know that I'm late to this party. There was a lot of talk about the "potential" of ActM but the dividend payouts that are projected are just too good to be true². I can't find any issue with the document. All projections look reasonable... hell, even if I cut everything in half it looks damn good... Can you guys pick the Vbs forecast apart and shatter my hopes and dreams?

Thanks.

¹ https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=254930.msg2752506#msg2752506
² https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlNssp0bn4rOdG5xdVFQRHZ2YlJYY1ZjWVRhZFdka3c#gid=0
(You should be able to copy the document and put your own share value in.)

[kingcrimson]

Thoughts on Butterfly's Monarch 28nm product and how it might change the landscape?

600 GH/s

Power
350W

Price
$4,680

Ships: Nov/December

Our 28nm competitors have never deliverd (sic) a single product.  Their manufacturing, supply chain and engineering are all back of the napkin ideas. We have shipped more ASIC than all competitors combined