ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread

[zumzero]

Some thoughts about the BFL Monarch, https://products.butterflylabs.com/600-gh-bitcoin-mining-card.html

• The four CAD pics don't correspond to the final product (PCI-E x16 on pics, PCI-E x1 on product; no PCI-E power connectors on pics, each card should require two PCI-E 8-pin plugs)
• External exhaust blower-type cooling solution is unsuitable for 350W TDP. This kind of TDP requires either water-cooling or getting about half of the heat back into the case (e.g., check dual-gpu cards). On a 4U with 3 of those cards, that's ~0.5*350*3 = 525W of heat recirculating inside!
• The margin on the hashrate specs is very large: "600 GH/s nominal performance ( + - 20% )", meaning a 600*0.8 = 480GH/s card still falls into specs.
• Power usage is a gamble for this form factor: "350w (0.6w/GH conservative estimate)". Depending on the final cooler solution they decide on, they are already operating on higher cooling performance assumptions than anyone else. Blower-type cards (GTX Titan, GTX 780, AMD 7970) are all around a TDP of 250W. If more dissipating power is needed, the cooling solution may not allow for it, requiring cards to be run underclocked/undervolted.

I'm no expert but have built a few pc gaming systems in my time.  Please correct me if I'm wrong..

Even though BFL labs state, "PCI Express  -  Monarch cards consume two PCI slots when installed in a standard ATX montherboard.  The PCIe format used is 1X for maximum compatibility.", does this not mean that they will use the pci-e x16 slot (not to be confused with a pci-e x1 slot) and run it as pci-e x1 in the bios?  Would this not make both the images and their reference to pci-e x 1 marry up?

Also the power connectors are not visible in the four images because none of the images show that side of the card?  If we argue that the first image does, then it's fair to say this BFL card doesn't have any power connectors.

I'm not sure how accurate your stats are for power draw as according this source you can see a 7970 uses 362 watts, with the 7990 drawing 491 watts.

http://www.techspot.com/review/663-amd-radeon-hd-7990/page8.html

In terms of the air cooling solution, what I see in those images is no different to high end dual slot gpu's not using after market cooling.

All that said you would be mad to go for one of these cards from BFL.  I hope they get their arses kicked by NY Department of Financial Sevices.

EDIT:  I thought I was mistaken by the link mentioning 'system power consumption' meaning entire sytem but it's not, it is indeed the cards only.

[Vbs]

I'm no expert but have built a few pc gaming systems in my time.  Please correct me if I'm wrong..

Even though BFL labs state, "PCI Express  -  Monarch cards consume two PCI slots when installed in a standard ATX montherboard.  The PCIe format used is 1X for maximum compatibility.", does this not mean that they will use the pci-e x16 slot (not to be confused with a pci-e x1 slot) and run it as pci-e x1 in the bios?  Would this not make both the images and their reference to pci-e x 1 marry up?

It means they will use a PCI-E x1 connector (as they should), because the x1 bandwidth is more than enough for bitcoin mining. You can slot a PCI-E x1 card in any x1, x4, x8 or x16 slot.

You can also use a PCI-E x16 card (GPU) to mine on PCI-E x1, this is a known trick way back into 2011 at least, for example, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6982.0

Also the power connectors are not visible in the four images because none of the images show that side of the card?  If we argue that the first image does, then it's fair to say this BFL card doesn't have any power connectors.

The first image of the card shows enough to see there are no power connectors there (it's a CAD oversight no doubts there). You need two 8-pin PCI-E power connectors to be able to reach 350W+.

I'm not sure how accurate your stats are for power draw as according this source you can see a 7970 uses 362 watts, with the 7990 drawing 491 watts.

http://www.techspot.com/review/663-amd-radeon-hd-7990/page8.html

In terms of the air cooling solution, what I see in those images is no different to high end dual slot gpu's not using after market cooling.

All that said you would be mad to go for one of these cards from BFL.  I hope they get their arses kicked by NY Department of Financial Sevices.

EDIT:  I thought I was mistaken by the link mentioning 'system power consumption' meaning entire sytem but it's not, it is indeed the cards only.

Those pics show total system power, a 7970 GHz edition there would be consuming at max 362-74 = 288W (which it isn't because there's also CPU+RAM load on the Crysis 3 stress test). You can check that the official TDP of the 7970 is 250W.

Keep in mind that their goal is to go for an external exhaust card to be used on 4U cases. External exhaust cards blow all the hot air to the outside of the case so that you mostly only need to worry about intake fans for cool air.

A 7990, for example (as all dual GPU cards) use cooling solutions that leave a lot of hot air inside, and this hot air re-circulation is what makes it very difficult to have 3 cards inside one case, because now you need intake fans and outake fans capable of removing all that excess heat. Also, let's not forget that a 7990 at 375W TDP is actually two chips (~187.5W each), so I'd say BFL will probably use a solution with several chips inside.

In the end, if they want to keep an EE solution (and they should) they will probably have to lower specs on the cards to ~250W total each (underclocking/undervolting/less chips per card) for the EE cooling to be effective.

[zumzero]

Thanks for that.  It all makes sense.  You really do know your stuff!

EDIT:  

I do have one question though.  

When BFL stated, "The PCIe format used is 1X for maximum compatibility." I read that not as them using a pci-e x1 connector as seen in the image below, but more that they wanted to ensure that it wouldn't take a top of the range motherboard supporting pci-e x 16 standard to be compatable with their product, however would use the same connectors commonly used in current grapics cards.

Can a heavy weighted dual card like BFL's be safely mounted to a motherboard given the low surface area?

[Vbs]

Thanks for that.  It all makes sense.  You really do know your stuff!

EDIT:  

I do have one question though.  

When BFL stated, "The PCIe format used is 1X for maximum compatibility." I read that not as them using a pci-e x1 connector as seen in the image below, but more that they wanted to ensure that it wouldn't take a top of the range motherboard supporting pci-e x 16 standard to be compatable with their product, however would use the same connectors commonly used in current grapics cards.

Can a heavy weighted dual card like BFL's be safely mounted to a motherboard given the low surface area?

They only need a x1 connector, just like that one.

Anyway, there's already a thread to discuss this! https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276692

(check https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276692.msg2954571#msg2954571 and https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276692.msg2955061#msg2955061, I still believe >250W on a blower cooler is insane for anything running 24/7)

[zumzero]

nuff said

[LorenzoMoney]

When AMC appeared on the scene, many people attacked it.
It did not look like a scam. Sure, Ken had big dreams and was not afraid to share those dreams, but his plan was reasonable: Raise money, buy high hash miners, buy chips, build his own miners, sell some of them, and develop his own ASIC chips.

bobbooie, are you complaining because VBS criticizes otehr companies and is a cheerleader of ActM?

Well, VBS just looks at the data.

Clearly, BFL has a very bad track record. Clearly, to me and some others, ActM has a reasonable business plan.

Now I understand that VBS probably holds a lot of shares in Actm but you are starting to look silly. When AMC was new and was looking like scam more than anything you were supporting it and hyping it all around. Never ever have I heard you say anything wrong. But on every other company that came on scene from then, you just try to look for what is wrong with it (not that it is bad thing overall) and point it out.
Not like I wouldnt actually hate BFL and their shit btw.

[LorenzoMoney]

What about the USB eruptors that Friedcat produced and which are now available on Amazon?

BFL is just plain wrong.

Yeah well BFL also says they're a good choice to preorder from because they have delivered more products than all ASIC competitors combined.

Says a lot doesn't it.

[sayaz]

Yeah I was referring to BFL being completely and utterly retarded beyond the point of recovery... unless they suck unawares in with google ad's and the like.

[AstroBoy]

Yeah I was referring to BFL being completely and utterly retarded beyond the point of recovery... unless they suck unawares in with google ad's and the like.

Most unawares don't have $5000 (with taxes) to blow on a boondoggle like this.  The low price point of BFL's other devices is in part why they had so many orders and also why the company is in trouble as the units ended up costing them money due to the redesign.  (What I'm saying is that once you factor in the cost of delays + new parts + Wages + fixed costs that they sold the original units effectively below cost.)  This is why a couple months ago they offered a $100 upgrade option for a 2nd chip in Jalapeno's.  And are doing another cash grab now.

[Vbs]

Yeah I was referring to BFL being completely and utterly retarded beyond the point of recovery... unless they suck unawares in with google ad's and the like.

Most unawares don't have $5000 (with taxes) to blow on a boondoggle like this.  The low price point of BFL's other devices is in part why they had so many orders and also why the company is in trouble as the units ended up costing them money due to the redesign.  (What I'm saying is that once you factor in the cost of delays + new parts + Wages + fixed costs that they sold the original units effectively below cost.)  This is why a couple months ago they offered a $100 upgrade option for a 2nd chip in Jalapeno's.  And are doing another cash grab now.

They aren't only doing a cash grab, they are eventually pushing all their pre-order customers to upgrade else they are left in the dust. Imagine you had pre-ordered a 500GH/s Mini-Rig for $22.5k, now to be outdated by a 600GH/s Monarch for $4.7k, ~82.7% cheaper per GH/s. They are basically shifting their orders into the future (upgrade or be left with a worse deal), reducing their costs now.

[VinceSamios]

Yeah I was referring to BFL being completely and utterly retarded beyond the point of recovery... unless they suck unawares in with google ad's and the like.

Most unawares don't have $5000 (with taxes) to blow on a boondoggle like this.  The low price point of BFL's other devices is in part why they had so many orders and also why the company is in trouble as the units ended up costing them money due to the redesign.  (What I'm saying is that once you factor in the cost of delays + new parts + Wages + fixed costs that they sold the original units effectively below cost.)  This is why a couple months ago they offered a $100 upgrade option for a 2nd chip in Jalapeno's.  And are doing another cash grab now.

I really don't think its reasonable to suggest BFL was suffering from a lack of funds - all of their units are ridiculously profitable regardless of re-designs. They are probably about $6mil-$8mil in the green. Which is why I'm so perplexed to understand why they did preorders rather than just make the things and release them. I'd argue they'd make a LOT more simply releasing products once already a reality.

[Stuartuk]

If Ken is still doing the btc conversion we will be not short in funds either. $120+ on Gox, that's just really good for us and means taking his time with this process has meant ACtM might have an extra 20-40k (guesstimate) than expected.

Volume is also up close to 10fold (lots of buyers), so I would say the last batch should have easily been done today and payment will be made to eASIC IMMANENTLY.

Stand by.

[knybe]

whoa for a second I thought I came into the ActiveMining Spec Thread... Pardon me ladies.


edit:
in other words: fuck BFL.

[Stuartuk]

whoa for a second I thought I came into the ActiveMining Spec Thread... Pardon me ladies.


edit:
in other words: fuck BFL.

OK I get you now. No real probs, it makes us feel better to slag off the competition, it's perfectly healthy while we wait for our own news and gives us more confidence that we are backing the right horse. Having said that BFL looks more like a rabid dog right now than a race horse.

[grimholt]

If Ken is still doing the btc conversion we will be not short in funds either. $120+ on Gox, that's just really good for us and means taking his time with this process has meant ACtM might have an extra 20-40k (guesstimate) than expected.

Volume is also up close to 10fold (lots of buyers), so I would say the last batch should have easily been done today and payment will be made to eASIC IMMANENTLY.

Stand by.

He's not using Mt. Gox (which is a wise decision), so the conversion rate on there is of little relevance. If I remember correctly he mentioned Tradehill once, so I'm guessing this is (one of) the exchange(s) being used. Anyway, the conversion rate on most other exchanges is in the range 100-105 USD, so the current price bump on Mt. Gox doesn't really matter much.

Anyway, I have faith that the NRE payment is well under way, and that we have some exciting news coming up very soon!

[ffssixtynine]

If Ken is still doing the btc conversion we will be not short in funds either. $120+ on Gox, that's just really good for us and means taking his time with this process has meant ACtM might have an extra 20-40k (guesstimate) than expected.

Volume is also up close to 10fold (lots of buyers), so I would say the last batch should have easily been done today and payment will be made to eASIC IMMANENTLY.

Stand by.

Sorry stuart but the above information is completely irrelevant for Ken's conversion or eASIC.

It's virtually impossible to get money out of Gox, and when you can it is taking many, many weeks. The Gox price is now 20% above any other exchange as well, so the price too is irrelevant.

Those trading on Gox are now people getting out or those trying to profit from what could be Gox's fall.

[Stuartuk]

If Ken is still doing the btc conversion we will be not short in funds either. $120+ on Gox, that's just really good for us and means taking his time with this process has meant ACtM might have an extra 20-40k (guesstimate) than expected.

Volume is also up close to 10fold (lots of buyers), so I would say the last batch should have easily been done today and payment will be made to eASIC IMMANENTLY.

Stand by.

He's not using Mt. Gox (which is a wise decision), so the conversion rate on there is of little relevance. If I remember correctly he mentioned Tradehill once, so I'm guessing this is (one of) the exchange(s) being used. Anyway, the conversion rate on most other exchanges is in the range 100-105 USD, so the current price bump on Mt. Gox doesn't really matter much.

Anyway, I have faith that the NRE payment is well under way, and that we have some exciting news coming up very soon!

I'd be surprised if he wasn't using gox for a portion, how do you know what he's up to? Even if he's selling off-gox the demand reflected there will help hold up prices on smaller exchanges when big sells are put up. Either way this demand is going to benefit us.

[Stuartuk]

It's virtually impossible to get money out of Gox, and when you can it is taking many, many weeks. The Gox price is now 20% above any other exchange as well, so the price too is irrelevant.

I have no direct experience but this to me is a myth in danger of attaining legendary status.

Mt-Gox update from 4th JULY (6weeks ago)

'Mt. Gox is happy to announce that global account withdrawals have now fully resumed as of today...'

'Progress in the Previous Two Weeks
While we announced that there would be a temporary hiatus on withdrawals, during our testing over the past two weeks we managed to process over $1,000,000 USD to customers. As this required a great deal of manpower and was not a perfect solution, we are quite happy with the progress made despite the conditions.'

https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html

Ontop of that EURO withdrawls have been available throughout although you do see some people complaining they waited a few weeks. It is entirely possible to withdraw Euros and convert to USD. With MTgox prices 10% higher I fail to see how that wouldn't make sense. It's not going to cost 100k to carry out the process.

edit: And how do we know big sellers don't get priority treatment from Gox? For a nice fee they might be able to pull leavers for super big clients.

[xchrisxsays]

It's virtually impossible to get money out of Gox, and when you can it is taking many, many weeks. The Gox price is now 20% above any other exchange as well, so the price too is irrelevant.

I have no direct experience but this to me is a myth in danger of attaining legendary status.

Mt-Gox update from 4th JULY (6weeks ago)

'Mt. Gox is happy to announce that global account withdrawals have now fully resumed as of today...'

'Progress in the Previous Two Weeks
While we announced that there would be a temporary hiatus on withdrawals, during our testing over the past two weeks we managed to process over $1,000,000 USD to customers. As this required a great deal of manpower and was not a perfect solution, we are quite happy with the progress made despite the conditions.'

https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html

Ontop of that EURO withdrawls have been available throughout although you do see some people complaining they waited a few weeks. It is entirely possible to withdraw Euros and convert to USD. With MTgox prices 10% higher I fail to see how that wouldn't make sense. It's not going to cost 100k to carry out the process.

edit: And how do we know big sellers don't get priority treatment from Gox? For a nice fee they might be able to pull leavers for super big clients.

Or he could just convert the bitcoins from a reliable source and not risk having a bunch of important money caught in Mt. Gox limbo.

[Stuartuk]

Or he could just convert the bitcoins from a reliable source and not risk having a bunch of important money caught in Mt. Gox limbo.

Sure but what is 'reliable' in the btc world??

If I had to offload 1000btc I wouldn't throw it all at or into one exchange/account. Exchanges can be hacked, now there is a risk of complete loss whereas you are talking of risk of a delay.

If Ken is using TradeHill why didn't he convert Monday and pay eASIC Tuesday? Because their claimed volume is 5x smaller than mtgox.

So taking 3-4weeks to sell hundreds of small batches or selling it all over 3days on gox then waiting for a wire transfer - which do you think would take the longest? There is a delay either way.