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TheSwede75 (OP)
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August 05, 2013, 06:23:18 AM |
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I will leave it up to Sam and the Developers to clarify exact numbers and dates. I can however say that after first-run, the plan is to order "very large" amounts of chips (likely multiples of 15,000 chips) instantly for quick delivery for both resale and miner construction. miners will be used for both mining and for consumer resale.
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somestranger
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August 05, 2013, 06:33:48 AM |
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There is NO WAY that 20 nm will come out in any quantities before mid/late 2014 (and that would be very impressive) and time-to-market is still more important then anything.
EXACTLY!!! This is what all of the panic sellers are missing. Labcoin, btcgarden, ActiveMining, etc. are all going to have chips out for months if not years before any of these supposed 20nm chips start pumping out. Even if/when 20nm chips are out, they won't be able to compete on cost! According to NVIDIA the 20nm chips are so expensive and low yield that the benefit of miniaturization hits a brick wall quickly. As I posted in the ActM thread: Even AMD and NVIDIA are not producing 20nm chips yet and they are huge semiconductor companies with billions of dollars that usually keep TSMC and other companies busy. NVIDIA gave a presentation in late 2011 explaining the problems of moving to 20nm including high costs for little performance gain. http://www.extremetech.com/computing/123529-nvidia-deeply-unhappy-with-tsmc-claims-22nm-essentially-worthless 20nm is going to cost significantly more than 28nm for at least a couple years based on NVIDIA's projections here, and the production lines will be busy fulfilling orders for these semiconductor giants, not a tiny company like Avalon regardless of whether or not they receive this alleged $200 M investment. Avalon's 20nm chips would be at least one year away if not more; they would be absurdly expensive and they would not be able to compete on price with the 3 contenders for the 28nm market who will have much lower NRE and R&D costs as well as getting to market faster.  From the article: "What this slide states — we can’t even call it a suggestion — is that smaller processes no longer improve yields by leading to a greater number of chips per wafer. Instead, the complexities and difficulties of manufacturing at the new process create a cost structure that provides precious little incentive to manufacture at the new process. " |
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Luckybit
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August 05, 2013, 06:36:56 AM |
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$200m should be plenty of money to get on the waiting list for 0.20nm.
But initial costs will be high, seems like it would be much cheaper to simply make 50% more 28nm chips.
I suspect $200m figure might actually be one thing that was taken from the older articles. It just makes no sense, unless they think the price of bitcoin is going to totally explode.
No matter how I look at this, IF the investment is indeed $200 million that is nothing more than a HUGE bet on very fast and sharp increase in Bitcon value. Why? Because almost no matter the technology used, to actually make a sustainable profit off $200 invested Avalon would have to hold OVER 50% of the network hash rate for a very long time (many years) at current BTC value, a calculation I think no VC would be willing to bet on (Not onto mention the huge risk to the Bitcoin network as a whole). What this investment really is, is a HUGE bet on increasing BTC value. Nothing else in my opinion. It's someone who wants into BTC on a larger scale then they could reasonably purchase BTC over the open market. That sharp increase was correlated with the reward halving. It takes 2 years to get 20nm completed and shipped, so it actually does make quite a bit of sense. |
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Ytterbium
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August 05, 2013, 06:50:05 AM |
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I must agree that 200 million when AM has values at that range and a market capital of 1 billion is a big bet on bitcoin before miners given the production time-frame I must admit bitcoin always keeps me interested. Truly it would be a giant bull sign. http://blockchain.info/charts/market-capAM's market cap is ~$160 million USD. But that doesn't mean AM has $160 million dollars it can just straight up spend on whatever it wants. That's a huge difference. |
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Ytterbium
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August 05, 2013, 06:51:21 AM |
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That sharp increase was correlated with the reward halving. It takes 2 years to get 20nm completed and shipped, so it actually does make quite a bit of sense.
It was also around the time the first ASICs were supposed to come online, and in fact it was after Avalon B1. I know because the price of bitcoin was around $30 or something when B2 orders opened up. |
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yufu571
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August 05, 2013, 06:59:43 AM |
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Maybe just a bit too late in my transfer to pick up really low prices.
Reddit is saying this story is BS and a mistake regarding an old story.
There is another company named Avalon Ventures, or something like that that also raised $200 mil in the past few years. However, the WSJ wouldn't make that kind of mistake. It would be just so much incompetence if that was the case. However, not at all impossible. 2B，鉴定完毕！！！！ |
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freedomno1
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Activity: 1806
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Learning the troll avoidance button :)
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August 05, 2013, 07:01:14 AM |
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I must agree that 200 million when AM has values at that range and a market capital of 1 billion is a big bet on bitcoin before miners given the production time-frame I must admit bitcoin always keeps me interested. Truly it would be a giant bull sign. http://blockchain.info/charts/market-capAM's market cap is ~$160 million USD. But that doesn't mean AM has $160 million dollars it can just straight up spend on whatever it wants. That's a huge difference. Agree, I meant that if the news source is correct and they are putting 200 million into this then they really are betting on bitcoin more than mining with that capital since they are banking on future growth. |
Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
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Lohoris
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August 05, 2013, 07:58:51 AM |
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Well, as you can see they were right to set their IPO price where they did. If the shares had sold at 0.002 and then dropped down to the current level, people would be outraged
As it is, people who got in at the IPO price are still in the money, so not particularly concerned.
Still, this happened because IPO shares were sold at an artificially lower discounted price, which was different from the price the market was willing to pay. |
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Lohoris
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August 05, 2013, 08:01:39 AM |
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DMS.SELLING is nearing what I believe to be its true value
I agree, I'm quite surprised this is really happening, I assumed there would forever be idiots willing to waste their money in order not to think... |
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eltopo
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August 05, 2013, 08:20:49 AM |
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DMS.SELLING is nearing what I believe to be its true value
I agree, I'm quite surprised this is really happening, I assumed there would forever be idiots willing to waste their money in order not to think... I don't agree. It's getting nearer to its true value, but as long as there are MINING bids > 0.007 there is plenty of room for gains in SELLING.... BTW: The money wasting in TAT.VM and BFMINES is far superior...  Sorry for OT |
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San1ty
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August 05, 2013, 08:46:50 AM
Last edit: August 05, 2013, 09:10:34 AM by San1ty |
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To be honest, they're both overvalued right now. BTC markets are very bullish. And these companies have nothing to show for themselves other than promises. And I've believed in promises too many times.  She never came back. Totally right, Everyone seems to be on the Choo Choo IPO train that they forget they are actually buying nothing. I wonder how many tears we'll see when the train crashes... Disclaimer: I do sincerely hope Labcoin succeeds, My remark is just about the current pricing of shares. Looks like a nice bounce-back at 0.001 to 0.0015. Seems like we have finally achieved true value. |
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canth
Legendary
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Activity: 1442
Merit: 1001
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August 05, 2013, 11:24:34 AM |
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Well, as you can see they were right to set their IPO price where they did. If the shares had sold at 0.002 and then dropped down to the current level, people would be outraged
As it is, people who got in at the IPO price are still in the money, so not particularly concerned.
Still, this happened because IPO shares were sold at an artificially lower discounted price, which was different from the price the market was willing to pay. Yes the IPO was designed to go out with an undervalued price and this is a good thing. You were and continue to be on the wrong and short-sighted side of the argument - there's no other way to put it. |
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tucenaber
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August 05, 2013, 11:37:29 AM |
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So, labcoin, today is 5 August. The day of the TSMC Shuttle for 130nm. What's the news?
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Vigil
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August 05, 2013, 01:24:48 PM |
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Well, there you go - hopefully prices of these stocks return to "normal" soon when everyone gets the news.
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Lohoris
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August 05, 2013, 03:21:53 PM |
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Seems like we have finally achieved true value.
IPO has been like 2 days ago, it seems a tad premature to talk about "finally" "reaching true value". |
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San1ty
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August 05, 2013, 03:27:54 PM |
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Seems like we have finally achieved true value.
IPO has been like 2 days ago, it seems a tad premature to talk about "finally" "reaching true value". Time isn't very relevant when it comes to market sentiment on a security... I was right on the slow drop to IPO, I'll be right on the 0.0015 being a correct value for now. |
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Bitcycle
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August 05, 2013, 03:42:19 PM |
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Seems like we have finally achieved true value.
IPO has been like 2 days ago, it seems a tad premature to talk about "finally" "reaching true value". Time isn't very relevant when it comes to market sentiment on a security... I was right on the slow drop to IPO, I'll be right on the 0.0015 being a correct value for now. LOL. No, you weren't. |
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San1ty
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August 05, 2013, 03:43:42 PM |
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Seems like we have finally achieved true value.
IPO has been like 2 days ago, it seems a tad premature to talk about "finally" "reaching true value". Time isn't very relevant when it comes to market sentiment on a security... I was right on the slow drop to IPO, I'll be right on the 0.0015 being a correct value for now. LOL. No, you weren't. Discuss... how was I wrong? |
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runam0k
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Activity: 1092
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Touchdown
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August 05, 2013, 03:57:17 PM |
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Discuss... how was I wrong?
Well, "slow drop to IPO" was wrong, because we didn't see the IPO price again. "Towards IPO" would have been correct. "I'll be right on the 0.0015 being a correct value for now" is your opinion but, at the time of typing, it's an opinion with which the market disagrees (price is currently > .0015, closer to .0016). So pretty much wrong. |
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