HashFast launches sales of the Baby Jet

[Syke]

So as an example:

You buy a Babyjet for 50 BTC, 90 days after delivery the theoretical mining revenue based on difficulty over the prior 90 days and 400 GH/s hashrate rate:

10.0 to 12.4 BTC = you would receive 4 MPP boards as compensation.  If 1 board produces 10 BTC then 5 boards (4+1) would produce >=50 BTC.
12.5 to 16.5 BTC = you would receive 3 MPP boards as compensation.  IF 1 board produces 12.5 BTC then 4 boards (3+1) would produce >= 50 BTC.
16.6 to 24.9 BTC = you would receive 2 MPP boards as compensation.  IF 1 board produces 12.5 BTC then 3 boards (2+1) would produce >= 50 BTC.
25.0 to 49.9 BTC = you would receive 1 MPP boards as compensation.  IF 1 board produces 25.0 BTC then 2 boards (1+1) would produce >= 50 BTC.

But the key point is the MPP delivers the goods 3-4 months after the miner. A reasonable assumption will be the 400 GH/s will reach at least 50% output, with the MPP providing 1 board 3-4 months later. Since difficulty is skyrocketing, that 400 GH/s MPP board is actually only worth about 50 GH/s. MPP will not provide positive ROI because it provides the hashrate too late.

MPP is nothing more than roi theater.

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MPP is nothing more than roi theater.

Perfect.

[DeathAndTaxes]

But the key point is the MPP delivers the goods 3-4 months after the miner. A reasonable assumption will be the 400 GH/s will reach at least 50% output, with the MPP providing 1 board 3-4 months later. Since difficulty is skyrocketing, that 400 GH/s MPP board is actually only worth about 50 GH/s. MPP will not provide positive ROI because it provides the hashrate too late.

50% return in 90 days would mean something on the order of a network @ 10 PH/s that seems plausible.  If the second board only provides 50 GH/s "equivalent" that would imply difficulty quadruples again in the next 90 days or 40 PH/s.   It might happen nobody said MPP is a guarantee.   Then again I don't see the network getting to 40 PH/s in the next 180-210 days.  Sure if you say difficulty doubles every 20 days then sure you can get there, you can also get to Bitcoin uses more energy than the entire rest of the human race combined as well.  As some point economic and energy costs will start to bend the curve.  Then again 40 PH/s in 180 days might happen but it might not.  Still if it does you are looking at -20% ROI after 180 days.  It would be possible to limp in to break even under a scenario like that.  Also by picking 50% return it kinda provides subpar return because it barely puts the customer in the higher category.  A 49% return for example would mean getting 2 more boards.  Granted not what most are hopping for but to say MPP is ROI theater is kinda silly.  Under the same scenario from any other vendor a customer would simply lose even more.  

With batch 2 onward HF has provides a non-MPP option at a lower cost this allows a customer to get more GH from day 1 at the same cost.  Under some scenarios that may be a better option.  Still if you feel the network will hit 40 PH/s in the next 180 days (btw an Avalon and $0.10 per kWh @ 40 PH/s network will cost about $300 to produce 1 BTC) in the next 180 days there likely is no hardware from any vendor that makes sense they all lose even more than HF with MPP.

[Syke]

50% return in 90 days would mean something on the order of a network @ 10 PH/s that seems plausible.  If the second board only provides 50 GH/s "equivalent" that would imply difficulty quadruples again in the next 90 days or 40 PH/s.   It might happen nobody said MPP is a guarantee.   Then again I don't see the network getting to 40 PH/s in the next 180-210 days.

I'm not talking 180 days. MPP kicks in at the end of 90 days, at which point network difficulty is likely to be quadruple what it is when the miner starts mining. MPP hashrate won't come on line until well after 90 days, which means it is worth a very small fraction of the original hashrate. It is just theater. ROI is not being "protected". MPP is nothing more than a miniscule consolation prize.

[amer]

We're all emperors wearing no clothes. The reality is that too many people have ordered too many GH/s worth of hashing for too much money, given the fixed daily reward. No one is going to win. The surplus has been gladly taken by BFL in particular, followed by KNC and then Hashfast and who knows who has ordered from Cointerra. The contrarians who bet on Bitfury and early Avalon have done well, and I salute their well-placed bets.

A game theorist might have seen all this coming, knowing how to predict what everyone else was doing. Mere mortals, despite endless theorising and model-making, have been blinded by their own optimism. Who wants a device that makes 0.01 BTC a day for 2 months longer than someone else's device. The real reward is in the first few weeks of operation...

I may plant some tulips in my Jupiter when it reaches its end of life. And hope that Paypal and eBay decides that Bitcoin is the future for online international payments, sending the demand through the roof. But I'm not holding my breath....

"I'm fucked, you're fucked, we're all fucked"

Emperors, indeed.

Honestly, these "mining is dead" posts are as ridiculous as the "HashFast will deliver 100% of their promises, on time and we'll all be rich" posts. Reality, as ALWAYS, lies somewhere in the middle and no one will agree on what actually happened.

[cypherdoc]

50% return in 90 days would mean something on the order of a network @ 10 PH/s that seems plausible.  If the second board only provides 50 GH/s "equivalent" that would imply difficulty quadruples again in the next 90 days or 40 PH/s.   It might happen nobody said MPP is a guarantee.   Then again I don't see the network getting to 40 PH/s in the next 180-210 days.

I'm not talking 180 days. MPP kicks in at the end of 90 days, at which point network difficulty is likely to be quadruple what it is when the miner starts mining. MPP hashrate won't come on line until well after 90 days, which means it is worth a very small fraction of the original hashrate. It is just theater. ROI is not being "protected". MPP is nothing more than a miniscule consolation prize.

seems to me 2 conditions need to be satisfied for MPP to be worthwhile:

1.  after 3 mo, the difficulty needs to be in a range corresponding to less than the maximum of 5x one's original HR from the point you receive your units.  at that point, the MPP can kick in and bring you even to your original investment in the form of the BTC already generated plus additional hashing capacity from the MPP.
2.  at that point of #1 the difficulty needs to stabilize or decrease to start returning more than your initial cost in the form of profit.

there's definitely a chance this could happen so it is not necessarily an "roi theater".

[cypherdoc]

We're all emperors wearing no clothes. The reality is that too many people have ordered too many GH/s worth of hashing for too much money, given the fixed daily reward. No one is going to win. The surplus has been gladly taken by BFL in particular, followed by KNC and then Hashfast and who knows who has ordered from Cointerra. The contrarians who bet on Bitfury and early Avalon have done well, and I salute their well-placed bets.

A game theorist might have seen all this coming, knowing how to predict what everyone else was doing. Mere mortals, despite endless theorising and model-making, have been blinded by their own optimism. Who wants a device that makes 0.01 BTC a day for 2 months longer than someone else's device. The real reward is in the first few weeks of operation...

I may plant some tulips in my Jupiter when it reaches its end of life. And hope that Paypal and eBay decides that Bitcoin is the future for online international payments, sending the demand through the roof. But I'm not holding my breath....

"I'm fucked, you're fucked, we're all fucked"

Emperors, indeed.

Honestly, these "mining is dead" posts are as ridiculous as the "HashFast will deliver 100% of their promises, on time and we'll all be rich" posts. Reality, as ALWAYS, lies somewhere in the middle and no one will agree on what actually happened.

well said.

[jjiimm_64]

The worst thing about the last 3 pages....  I can never get these 10 minutes back!!

Lets talk boards...  does anyone know yet if the miniboards are powered by pci cables?

what kind of usb plugs into it? is it the same as is used by the bfl 60?

Looking forward to the time when I can buy these miniboards for about 300 bucks when the smoke clears and treat them like we did gpus..  when they will have roughly a 10 month ROI!!

[DeathAndTaxes]

The worst thing about the last 3 pages....  I can never get these 10 minutes back!!

Lets talk boards...  does anyone know yet if the miniboards are powered by pci cables?

what kind of usb plugs into it? is it the same as is used by the bfl 60?

Looking forward to the time when I can buy these miniboards for about 300 bucks when the smoke clears and treat them like we did gpus..  when they will have roughly a 10 month ROI!!

HF has not said.  Looking at the Sierra models it looks like a PCIe 6 pin power connector.  Not sure why they would make it more complicated then a standard PCIe power connector and a standard USB cable connector.  If they can be daisy chained likely one USB "A" port and one USB "B" port so a standard A to B cable can be used.

[donch]

Honestly, these "mining is dead" posts are as ridiculous as the "HashFast will deliver 100% of their promises, on time and we'll all be rich" posts. Reality, as ALWAYS, lies somewhere in the middle and no one will agree on what actually happened.

Honestly, it's all just a betting game with three outcomes: lose money, break even and profit. The truth is we've all got a slow bet on the future worth of BTC, averaged over the lifetime of our devices. That bet is an irrational one; the current rally will tank after the imminent difficulty rise, as ALWAYS.

Keep on hoping. The snake oil is still for sale.

The real question that no one ever talks about is why the pool operators haven't fiddled with their transaction fee bitcoind settings to start enforcing the wallet developers and payment gateways to add a reasonable fee to all, or at least the majority of, transactions. The proof of work of the block chain creation clearly isn't happening for free :-) Satoshi envisioned the transaction fees inflating. Now, I'd say is the justified time for this to happen!

[donch]

Quick "model-making" question. Excuse me if this was answered before. Does the MPP calculation for ROI in 90 days include the cost of the MPP itself and the cost of the miner, or just the miner?

[itod]

We're all emperors wearing no clothes. The reality is that too many people have ordered too many GH/s worth of hashing for too much money, given the fixed daily reward. No one is going to win. The surplus has been gladly taken by BFL in particular, followed by KNC and then Hashfast and who knows who has ordered from Cointerra. The contrarians who bet on Bitfury and early Avalon have done well, and I salute their well-placed bets.

A game theorist might have seen all this coming, knowing how to predict what everyone else was doing. Mere mortals, despite endless theorising and model-making, have been blinded by their own optimism. Who wants a device that makes 0.01 BTC a day for 2 months longer than someone else's device. The real reward is in the first few weeks of operation...

I may plant some tulips in my Jupiter when it reaches its end of life. And hope that Paypal and eBay decides that Bitcoin is the future for online international payments, sending the demand through the roof. But I'm not holding my breath....

"I'm fucked, you're fucked, we're all fucked"

Emperors, indeed.

Honestly, these "mining is dead" posts are as ridiculous as the "HashFast will deliver 100% of their promises, on time and we'll all be rich" posts. Reality, as ALWAYS, lies somewhere in the middle and no one will agree on what actually happened.

Well said. It's specially idiotic to hear claims "your free 2THs you'll get from MPP will be worth nothing in 3 months!" coming from confirmed KnC buyers. How much will your precious Jupiters than be worth in three months when 2THs is just dust? It's plain jealousy or FUD spreading, if we made a mistake counting on MPP, oh boy did you made a mistake counting that Jupiters will mine anything in 3 months with 50-100% more electricity spending than HF.

[donch]

Well said. It's specially idiotic to hear claims "your free 2THs you'll get from MPP will be worth nothing in 3 months!" coming from confirmed KnC buyers. How much will your precious Jupiters than be worth in three months when 2THs is just dust? It's plain jealousy or FUD spreading, if we made a mistake counting on MPP, oh boy did you made a mistake counting that Jupiters will mine anything in 3 months with 50-100% more electricity spending than HF.

Wow, nice "them and us" manoeuvre. On a scale of 1 to Josh, you nailed a perfect Zerlan  

Electricity spending/day for a Jupiter is approximately 0.550x24x0.15=$1.98
Electricity spending/day for a Babyjet is approximately 0.260x24x0.15=$0.94

So, come January, when all these units are probably useless anyway, you are saving an extra $1.04/day in electricity costs. DeathAndTaxes seems obsessed with this margin. I think it's irrelevant. The only thing that matters is when you receive delivery relative to when everyone else receives delivery. All rewards are front-loaded. This is why Avalon Batch #1 did so well. They were a small number of people with a huge time advantage.

What I'm interested in here is the marketing of the MPP. I would like to calculate the greater probable loss between:

Buying a Babyjet: $2760 - BTC return until daily return is less than $0.94
Buying a Babyjet with MPP: $4560 - BTC until daily return is less than $0.94 -[1-4]xBTC daily return at very small return until less than $0.94

It's both an interesting and difficult calculation, actuarially (sic). My gut feeling is that not choosing MPP reduces losses. Don't worry, I think we're all going to lose money. My pessimism is not limited to this thread.

It's a clever move by Hashfast. They have fixed their future retail value per module at a minimum of $472.50 without even having to guarantee delivering the unit. Insurance is the perfect way to ensure a cash float. Ask Warren Buffet about it:

https://collab.itc.virginia.edu/access/content/group/dff17973-f012-465d-9e73-a05fa4456644/Research/Fundamentals/Float.pdf



  

[crumbs]

We're all emperors wearing no clothes. The reality is that too many people have ordered too many GH/s worth of hashing for too much money, given the fixed daily reward. No one is going to win. The surplus has been gladly taken by BFL in particular, followed by KNC and then Hashfast and who knows who has ordered from Cointerra. The contrarians who bet on Bitfury and early Avalon have done well, and I salute their well-placed bets.

A game theorist might have seen all this coming, knowing how to predict what everyone else was doing. Mere mortals, despite endless theorising and model-making, have been blinded by their own optimism. Who wants a device that makes 0.01 BTC a day for 2 months longer than someone else's device. The real reward is in the first few weeks of operation...

I may plant some tulips in my Jupiter when it reaches its end of life. And hope that Paypal and eBay decides that Bitcoin is the future for online international payments, sending the demand through the roof. But I'm not holding my breath....

"I'm fucked, you're fucked, we're all fucked"

Emperors, indeed.

Honestly, these "mining is dead" posts are as ridiculous as the "HashFast will deliver 100% of their promises, on time and we'll all be rich" posts. Reality, as ALWAYS, lies somewhere in the middle and no one will agree on what actually happened.

Well said. It's specially idiotic to hear claims "your free 2THs you'll get from MPP will be worth nothing in 3 months!" coming from confirmed KnC buyers. How much will your precious Jupiters than be worth in three months when 2THs is just dust? It's plain jealousy or FUD spreading, if we made a mistake counting on MPP, oh boy did you made a mistake counting that Jupiters will mine anything in 3 months with 50-100% more electricity spending than HF.

You're right.  "Mining is dead" posts are ridiculous.  Nothing but drama.  I'll offer a sound, edifying alternative:

Q. What should today's savvy mining enthusiast consider when purchasing ASIC equipment, taking into account the rich history of ASIC mining?

A. OMGRun!!1!  Satoshi Dice customers profited moar, historically, then ASIC buyers.  

[dopamine]

Still not sold on RIO even with MPP and yes I am a batch 1 order one of the first 100. The problem with hashfast is that they are gonna miss their deadline end of Oct is coming soon...

[itod]

Well said. It's specially idiotic to hear claims "your free 2THs you'll get from MPP will be worth nothing in 3 months!" coming from confirmed KnC buyers. How much will your precious Jupiters than be worth in three months when 2THs is just dust? It's plain jealousy or FUD spreading, if we made a mistake counting on MPP, oh boy did you made a mistake counting that Jupiters will mine anything in 3 months with 50-100% more electricity spending than HF.

Wow, nice "them and us" manoeuvre. On a scale of 1 to Josh, you nailed a perfect Zerlan  

Electricity spending/day for a Jupiter is approximately 0.550x24x0.15=$1.98
Electricity spending/day for a Babyjet is approximately 0.260x24x0.15=$0.94

So, come January, when all these units are probably useless anyway, you are saving an extra $1.04/day in electricity costs. DeathAndTaxes seems obsessed with this margin. I think it's irrelevant.

DeathAndTaxes is not obsessed, man is trying to explain a concept that few from KnC camp seem to grasp. The equilibrium between hashing income and electricity cost is getting near, it is not the question if it will come, it's how many months before it happens. It already happened with GPUs. When it hits, KnC miners will be plugged out of the walls first, while Baby Jets will continue mining as energy most efficient chips through 2014 for as long as 11nm comes around. If we apply your calculation for savings $1.04/day for one Baby Jet, we get for 1+4 Baby Jets from MPP:
$1.04 * 5 * 365 = $1,898.00
So each MPP protected Baby Jet has a chance to earn close to 2K US$ in 2014 while Jupiter is non-profitable for mining. It's considerable part of miner price in my book. I don't claim all 2K$ will be gained since there will be new quantity of quality miners on the market, but on thing is certain - KnC will not be in that game. Tell me again, is DeathAndTaxes obsessed or realistic?

[donch]

Well said. It's specially idiotic to hear claims "your free 2THs you'll get from MPP will be worth nothing in 3 months!" coming from confirmed KnC buyers. How much will your precious Jupiters than be worth in three months when 2THs is just dust? It's plain jealousy or FUD spreading, if we made a mistake counting on MPP, oh boy did you made a mistake counting that Jupiters will mine anything in 3 months with 50-100% more electricity spending than HF.

Wow, nice "them and us" manoeuvre. On a scale of 1 to Josh, you nailed a perfect Zerlan  

Electricity spending/day for a Jupiter is approximately 0.550x24x0.15=$1.98
Electricity spending/day for a Babyjet is approximately 0.260x24x0.15=$0.94

So, come January, when all these units are probably useless anyway, you are saving an extra $1.04/day in electricity costs. DeathAndTaxes seems obsessed with this margin. I think it's irrelevant.

DeathAndTaxes is not obsessed, man is trying to explain a concept that few from KnC camp seem to grasp. The equilibrium between hashing income and electricity cost is getting near, it is not the question if it will come, it's how many months before it happens. It already happened with GPUs. When it hits, KnC miners will be plugged out of the walls first, while Baby Jets will continue mining as energy most efficient chips through 2014 for as long as 11nm comes around. If we apply your calculation for savings $1.04/day for one Baby Jet, we get for 1+4 Baby Jets from MPP:
$1.04 * 5 * 365 = $1,898.00
So each MPP protected Baby Jet has a chance to earn close to 2K US$ in 2014 while Jupiter is non-profitable for mining. It's considerable part of miner price in my book. I don't claim all 2K$ will be gained since there will be new quantity of quality miners on the market, but on thing is certain - KnC will not be in that game. Tell me again, is DeathAndTaxes obsessed or realistic?

Your calculation sounds great, until you question the x365 part. Do you really think in January that you'll have another 365 days of above electricity cost hashing left? Really? You admit this yourself. I'd give you a maximum of 2 months above a Jupiter before the difficulty forces you below break even, and that's generous. Cointerra will be online by then, KNC next generation in March, not to mention the November batch. Blimey, BFL might even deliver the Monarch. Hashfast might have a fire sale with all their surplus stock. They might go bust and you don't get your MPP.

The only thing that will save all the ASIC buyers going forwards is the exchange rate improving or some miraculous increase in the average transaction fee. The mining market has been oversold, given 3600 BTC block reward per day at $158. I wish you luck.  

I just got my Jupiter refunded and took the 0.07% hit in the USD=>GBP exchange rate since August, I'm that convinced this is a mug's game. I'm not in anyone's camp.  

[itod]

Your calculation sounds great, until you question the x365 part. Do you really think in January that you'll have another 365 days of above electricity cost hashing left? Really? You admit this yourself. I'd give you a maximum of 2 months above a Jupiter before the difficulty forces you below break even, and that's generous. Cointerra will be online by then, KNC next generation in March, not to mention the November batch. Blimey, BFL might even deliver the Monarch. Hashfast might have a fire sale with all their surplus stock. They might go bust and you don't get your MPP.

I'm pretty much positive about x365 part (11nm is nowhere on the radar), what I'm not sure, and you are right I admit, is that it will be whole $1/per day/per Baby Jet mini-board. Cointerra may reduce that as they are as efficient chip as HF and together they may reduce that for both. KNC November delivery is a laugh as it will be turned off at the same time as previous delivery, and BFL I'm not gonna comment at all.

I just got my Jupiter refunded and took the 0.07% hit in the USD=>GBP exchange rate since August, I'm that convinced this is a mug's game. I'm not in anyone's camp.

That was a smart move. BTC saved is a BTC earned.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Your calculation sounds great, until you question the x365 part. Do you really think in January that you'll have another 365 days of above electricity cost hashing left? Really? You admit this yourself. I'd give you a maximum of 2 months above a Jupiter before the difficulty forces you below break even, and that's generous.

What exactly would drive difficulty that high.   People buying rigs that instantly result in a loss from day 0?

Imagine difficulty is so high a Jupiter breaks even on electrical cost ($100 in electricity = $100 in BTC).  Anything less efficient has been idled as who is going to pay $500 in electricity to get $100 in BTC.  Total network hashrate would be close to 130 PH/s (difficulty 18 billion).

Your predict is that in two months the network will double again such that a HF rig will be operating at break even electrical cost?  Really?  Other than blindly following a chart which shows an exponential growth forever have you thought about that.

a) 130 PH/s needed to double in 60 days = 2.2 PH per day in hardware.  Thats like 5,500 BabyJets or Jupiters shipping a day, every single day nonstop.

b) who would be buying these.  By your very scenario a Jupiter is no longer profitable to operate (even w/ free hardware) from day 1.  Who would be buying these hundreds of PH/s of gear to operate at a loss?  Even HF/Cointerra gear would be only marginally profitable.  Even assumming no future difficulty growth and prices as low as $2 per GH it the time to break even would be on the order of TWO YEARS.  So who is going to buy all this 130 PH/s of hardware.

c) It would take a lot more than 1 or 2 miners bad at math.  Even at $2/GH that is $2,000 per TH or $2M per PH.  Another 130 PH would be $260 million in hardware sales.  Hell pretend ASIC companies cut their prices to <$1 per GH you are still talking over $100M.

So which scenario do you think is more likely.  Difficulty continues to double forever OR at some point economics/cost starts to bend the cost curve.  Will a HF miner turn a profit?  I don't know and I am not trying to predict that.  There are far two many variables in play.  However it is painfully obvious for anyone who has done more "analysis" then clicking "calculate" on the genesis block that economic factors will eventually slow the curve.   By your logic why didn't we see difficulty grow exponentially to 100 PH/s with GPUs?  Maybe because while miners are bad at predicting the future they are pretty good at looking at the day 1 economics and that slows hardware deployment.

[crumbs]

Well said. It's specially idiotic to hear claims "your free 2THs you'll get from MPP will be worth nothing in 3 months!" coming from confirmed KnC buyers. How much will your precious Jupiters than be worth in three months when 2THs is just dust? It's plain jealousy or FUD spreading, if we made a mistake counting on MPP, oh boy did you made a mistake counting that Jupiters will mine anything in 3 months with 50-100% more electricity spending than HF.

Wow, nice "them and us" manoeuvre. On a scale of 1 to Josh, you nailed a perfect Zerlan  

Electricity spending/day for a Jupiter is approximately 0.550x24x0.15=$1.98
Electricity spending/day for a Babyjet is approximately 0.260x24x0.15=$0.94

So, come January, when all these units are probably useless anyway, you are saving an extra $1.04/day in electricity costs. DeathAndTaxes seems obsessed with this margin. I think it's irrelevant.

DeathAndTaxes is not obsessed, man is trying to explain a concept that few from KnC camp seem to grasp. The equilibrium between hashing income and electricity cost is getting near, it is not the question if it will come, it's how many months before it happens. It already happened with GPUs. When it hits, KnC miners will be plugged out of the walls first, while Baby Jets will continue mining as energy most efficient chips through 2014 for as long as 11nm comes around. If we apply your calculation for savings $1.04/day for one Baby Jet, we get for 1+4 Baby Jets from MPP:
$1.04 * 5 * 365 = $1,898.00
So each MPP protected Baby Jet has a chance to earn close to 2K US$ in 2014 while Jupiter is non-profitable for mining. It's considerable part of miner price in my book. I don't claim all 2K$ will be gained since there will be new quantity of quality miners on the market, but on thing is certain - KnC will not be in that game. Tell me again, is DeathAndTaxes obsessed or realistic?

The equilibrium between mining income and energy costs is not "getting near."  For current gen miners, it's not even in the ballpark.  It won't be in that ballpark 'till April, *if* monthly difficulty continues to rise at 117%.  If the above holds true, you get ~1 month of extra "mining," for a net profit of pocket change.

Finally, stop spouting the "I'll have 5x the hashing power in three months' time" silliness.  You'll have 5x the hashrate IF you fail to make just 1/4 of your "investment" back.  If you only get back 25 cents for every dollar spent.  Blow it by 75%.  And Hashfast is counting 100% uptime from the day of delivery.  Good luck with that.