2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[d5000]

People have been using the "bubble chart" since Bitcoin hit $2000 after the $1000 peak during the MtGox peak.[...]

We have been seeing that for years now, and Bitcoin has proven a million times how classic technical analysis just doesn't apply to Bitcoin. Keep thinking you can predict the market, sell your BTC position, then cry when we hit an all time high next month again.

It's equally wrong to assume that Bitcoin will grow infinitely. Viewed from the "right angle", and with the "right zoom level", every asset that grows for a period in time (months, years or even decades) can be assumed to be a "infinitely growing asset". Nobody know when a bullish cycle is going to end, but it will end eventually.

So for me, this kind of threads is equally legit than people predicting prices of millions per BTC. Which is, in my opinion, a very very unlikely scenario. If everything is going well and Lightning is working as expected and it gets really a mass phenomenon, I don't see the maximum stable price much above $100K - with temporary "overheatings" or "bubbles" up to 300-400K being still possible, but unlikely.

The most likely scenario for me is still a Bitcoin with a "stable end price" of $20K-50K.

[1714136059]

1714136059

[1714136059]

1714136059

[ThinkerTinkerMaker]

 

• Cryptocurrency bubble appears to be over, and a spectacular crash and bear market seems imminent.
• Bitcoin may bounce towards approx $15500 on Bitfinex, followed by a crash towards $7000-$8000, and then eventually to $2000-$4000.
• Majority of other cryptocurrencies may cease to exist.

 

• https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7p2bwq/2018_cryptocurrency_crash_elliott_wave/

 

Then just sell and just get out of the game. I understand those who are on the bearish and want to start a discussion about speculative drops/pops and possibilities  but something tells me that's not your purpose.

[jjacob]

Everybody uses Elliott Waves to predict, but nobody seems to get it right. Even Goldman used this logic to predict that Bitcoin was heading into its fifth and final Elliott Wave when it crossed $8000. We all know what happened after that.
So I am going to ignore this bit of analysis as well.

[d5000]

Everybody uses Elliott Waves to predict, but nobody seems to get it right. Even Goldman used this logic to predict that Bitcoin was heading into its fifth and final Elliott Wave when it crossed $8000.

I am not a strong "believer" in Elliot's wave theory (many trading bots are, however ).

But in this case, they were right if you assume that ~$20000 was the top, and that's also what the OP posted in his chart pics. Wave 5 is often characterized by extreme hype, greed and "parabolic" behaviour, so the run from 8000 to 20000 wasn't that surprising.

In 2013, the final run from $350 to $1000 ("Wave 5") lasted also about 2 weeks and more than duplicated the price. In fact, I see a lot of coincidences in this year's price evolution and 2013-14. We are now at the point where Bitcoin in 2014 was when its price "tumbled" between $600 (50% of ATH) and $900 (80% of the ATH).

[cellard]

People have been using the "bubble chart" since Bitcoin hit $2000 after the $1000 peak during the MtGox peak.[...]

We have been seeing that for years now, and Bitcoin has proven a million times how classic technical analysis just doesn't apply to Bitcoin. Keep thinking you can predict the market, sell your BTC position, then cry when we hit an all time high next month again.

It's equally wrong to assume that Bitcoin will grow infinitely. Viewed from the "right angle", and with the "right zoom level", every asset that grows for a period in time (months, years or even decades) can be assumed to be a "infinitely growing asset". Nobody know when a bullish cycle is going to end, but it will end eventually.

So for me, this kind of threads is equally legit than people predicting prices of millions per BTC. Which is, in my opinion, a very very unlikely scenario. If everything is going well and Lightning is working as expected and it gets really a mass phenomenon, I don't see the maximum stable price much above $100K - with temporary "overheatings" or "bubbles" up to 300-400K being still possible, but unlikely.

The most likely scenario for me is still a Bitcoin with a "stable end price" of $20K-50K.

Nobody is saying bitcoin will grow infinitely, that's nonsense, but it's equally nonsense claiming that "this is the peak of the bubble" because:

1) Bubbles are impossible to predict in it's nature, therefore you will miss the peak
2) Bitcoin has a LOT more upwards momentum than downards. There's simply *too much money out there*. The trillions sitting in nonsensical options are all going to end up in Bitcoin because they will realize there aren't many other places left. Everything else is too congested already, all the upwards momentum lies within Bitcoin and the rest of the altcoins are a joke and unsafe to host trillions worth of capital.

[Shinpako09]

Again, another newbie account making fun to those panickers spreading FUD and it's kinda working to those people who always got panic. I still believe 2018 will be better than 2017. Bitcoin does thing unexpected.

[pinoyden]

Again, another newbie account making fun to those panickers spreading FUD and it's kinda working to those people who always got panic. I still believe 2018 will be better than 2017. Bitcoin does thing unexpected.

you said it right. bitcoin does thing unexpected but that does not mean unexpected in a positive way because bitcoin can still possibly decrease no matter what the date of the year, whether it is 2017 or 2018 bitcoin can still go in any other way around. and these kind of news arent really going to affect the price of bitcoin nor the people who owns or holds bitcoin because it is not already new to see and hear this kind of gimmick. people wont panic whenever they see stuffs like this its because they believe  bitcoin can still recover no matter what happen to it.

[d5000]

Nobody is saying bitcoin will grow infinitely, that's nonsense, but it's equally nonsense claiming that "this is the peak of the bubble" because:

1) Bubbles are impossible to predict in it's nature, therefore you will miss the peak

We're already 20 days past the last ATH and have lost about 30-40%. So I consider it legitimate, in the Speculation forum, to make a bearish prediction. It's equally legitimate than to make a bullish prediction. You can post yours, too

2) Bitcoin has a LOT more upwards momentum than downards. There's simply *too much money out there*. The trillions sitting in nonsensical options are all going to end up in Bitcoin because they will realize there aren't many other places left. Everything else is too congested already, all the upwards momentum lies within Bitcoin and the rest of the altcoins are a joke and unsafe to host trillions worth of capital.

I'm sure there is still upward potential in Bitcoin, long-term, above all if 2nd layer technologies work as expected. But bubbles are a short- to mid-term phenomenon. We have already experienced blockchain capacity problems with Bitcoin when working with this order of magnitude of users, and so short-term I see only limited growth potential.

And no, I don't agree that all altcoins are "a joke". A large majority of them, maybe 90 or even 95 percent of them, is definitively crap and overvalued. But there are also about 30-50 projects that have something to offer - for example, those that try out new ways to solve efficiency and scalability problems. I'll not mention them here because it's off topic.

[zenzi8a]

I've been following this forum for long, holding bitcoin for years. Never thought it necessary to write anything.
So many people spreading FUD these days. My feeling is, that only because numbers are so high, people get emotional.

We go from 15k to 13k, from 13k to 16k...so what. No one really cared THAT much when we were going from 2,5k back to 1,9k, up to 3k...
I've seen it all on the graph. There is one chart in this forum which I cant find anymore where all the major "drops" are listed. All of them in the 40% range.

What the hell should be different this time? Just because there is one more 0 behind and all newbies buy shitcoins because they have 0000 in front of them?

HODL
and one day you will just pay with your bitcoin account - and youll never run out of money because people talk in mbtc and not in btc.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

15-JAN-2018

Crypto Black Monday

https://redd.it/7pxg0d

[Mainman08]

 

• Cryptocurrency bubble appears to be over, and a spectacular crash and bear market seems imminent.
• Bitcoin may bounce towards approx $15500 on Bitfinex, followed by a crash towards $7000-$8000, and then eventually to $2000-$4000.
• Majority of other cryptocurrencies may cease to exist.

 

• https://redd.it/7ptsg3

I think they spread this news to create fear it the mind of a potential investor in bitcoin. The people behind this news want bitcoin to go down. Noone know what will happen to bitcoin in the future. So stop spreading news like this.

[MoonJeina]

 

• Cryptocurrency bubble appears to be over, and a spectacular crash and bear market seems imminent.
• Bitcoin may bounce towards approx $15500 on Bitfinex, followed by a crash towards $7000-$8000, and then eventually to $2000-$4000.
• Majority of other cryptocurrencies may cease to exist.

 

• https://redd.it/7ptsg3

 Someone should ask these people that how and on what basis they are giving such statements . Bitcoin has been called a bubble more times it has been called a currency and that is just pathetic . Bitcoin is in its most stable point right now and there has not been a single sudden up or down in days now . When bitcoin was rising at a speed faster than a rocked it was feared that bitcoin might crash at that speed . But nothing like that happened and bitcoin became comparatively stable instead at around $14000 - $15000 .
Reaching at the level of as low as $2000 seems too funny for me at the moment witnessing the popularity and the green market of all other crypto currencies . 2018 will definitely turn out to be a relatively progressive and stable year for the crypto currencies and bitcoin will reach upto its highest levels by the end of 2018 .         

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Not quite the Black Monday —phew! Live another day.
However, the projection is on price and structure, not time.

15-JAN-2018 onwards:

[RyNinDaCleM]

So lemme get this straight. That 9 days in mid-November is the same degree 4 to the two year bear market that was 2?


In blue... 

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

So lemme get this straight. That 9 days in mid-November is the same degree 4 to the two year bear market that was 2?

In blue...  

Yes, that's the speculation! —doesn't violate any EW rules.
Here's the painstaking fine details, much obliged if you could insert in the forum too.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

The imminent crypto crash starts once the following price levels are crossed below to the downside:

BTC/USD (Bitfinex): $11,651
BTC/USD (Coinbase): $12,500

Afterwards, the crash then accelerates with terminal velocity once the lows of 22 Dec 2017 are crossed to the downside.
At which point many exchanges may likely experience outages, preventing fund deposits/withdrawals and the closing/opening of positions.
Slippages on stops/limits may also occur.


 

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Fun fact...

Contrary to popular belief during the crash, the flight from crypto currencies and into fiat currency, is false.
The US dollar is in a bear market.
The flight to safety from crypto currencies is into gold.
 

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Updated roadmap as of 16-JAN-2018 13:00UTC

Once the 22 DEC 2017 lows are taken out, i.e. BTCUSD 10700 on Bitfinex, the core part of the crash termed as "Fear" commences.

At which point many exchanges may likely experience outages, preventing fund deposits/withdrawals and the closing/opening of positions.
Slippages on stops/limits may also occur. This is where the tsunami of Elliott Waves breaks the surf, where the speed of decline is at terminal velocity.

This is where man looks in the abyss, and there's nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character. And that is what keeps him out of the abyss.

[alyssa85]

Very few cryptocurrencies actually go extinct. There is always someone either using it (like Doge) or it's a tempting currency to pump.

The only thing that makes a coin go extinct is if the exchanges delist it, and that only happens if trades dry up for that coin.

[g-uid]

You do realize that the market cap is just the price times the number of coins in existence, right? Of course the market cap will be lower when the price was lower.

It's one of the main reasons why all these shitcoins are a total joke. For example, Ripple, and all these premined scamcoins, create an huge supply of coins, and if someone buys just $1 USD worth, the huge premined supply will now become the marketcap at a vlue of $1 USD each.

So a shitcoin generates 100,000,000,000 tokens, someone buys $1, and now the marketcap is $100,000,000,000, it's a total joke. Coinmarketcap is so misleading to newbies that think Bitcoin has real competition. All of these shitcoins have manipulated supplies with very dodgy history behind like developers burning coins in purpose, generating them, airdropping them... it's nuts.

Jesus, Mary and Joseph: well said man! Should print a t-shirt and walk around with this post on it.