2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[muf18]

Time for a bounce? A speculative buy order has been placed as follows...

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 8600
CLOSE: 12058
STOP: 7960*
RISK: 7.5%
REWARD: 40%

*A hedge, not a stop-loss, has been placed at 7690 as there may be a final flush to 7600 area.

Barring any wave subdivisions, there are now a sufficient count of waves to suggest the first Primary a-wave of the crash is over.
The a-wave decline from 06-JAN-2018 ought to be retraced by a b-wave bounce retracing up to 38.2% (11510) to 50% (12606) with the average being at 12058.

Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, Robert Prechter:

"b-waves — b-waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of oddlotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often 'unconfirmed' by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by c-wave. If the analyst can easily say to himself, 'there is something wrong with this market', chances are it's a b-wave."

Speculative and idealised Elliott Wave models indicative of probable price and structure, not timing as follows:

I'll at least get out with one small position at this 12K level, just for lulz, so little money still better to be at break even than loss.
I was holding, but it's not worth it, picture now is clear.

[1713425055]

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[Slark]

It is so easy to be a prophet of doom and spread the FUD all around. New investors are so naive and can't think for themselves.
I expect that after every fake news we may expect rapid price decline, like the current one until we will have only strong hands left.
That being said, in two weeks price will probably go back to 13k+ level once more - that is, unless we won't have more negative news...

[d5000]

@d5000 - look what's going on now. I don't know what really caused such panic, but it doesn't looks like normal people are only selling, that whales are selling too.
Look at volume. Looks really bad. In 2015 there wasnt so much dumb capital, as right now. So imo we are heading to 2-3K. And if tether isn't solvent - then ... 1K.

I disagree. The volumes of the previous crashes of this bear market were equal or higher. At Bitstamp (look at the 6m graph at Bitcoinity), for example, the first crash in December was the one with most volume, followed by the one in January.

So it's a pretty normal 20%-downmove in a bear market. A little panic, but something Bitcoiners know very well

We can see $2000 in this bear market, that's out of question, however my personal guess for the low is $3000-4000 because that was a level that was reached several times in 2017 - two times as a high and one time as a significant low. There will be massive support there. And I repeat that we will need several months to reach that low.

And I think Tether is important but one should not exaggerate, too - it has about 15-20% market share, but MtGox in 2014 had 70%. So it could add a nice 20%-downmove like today/yesterday, but its consequences will be far less severe than the MtGox insolvency was.

[--DarkSecrets--]

It is so easy to be a prophet of doom and spread the FUD all around. New investors are so naive and can't think for themselves.
I expect that after every fake news we may expect rapid price decline, like the current one until we will have only strong hands left.
That being said, in two weeks price will probably go back to 13k+ level once more - that is, unless we won't have more negative news...

I share the same thought. If we are naïve persons then do not do the challenge of becoming an investor. Being in a cryptocurrency investment needs wisdom and strong personality and belief. If in this situations, we show that we are coward, then leave the area and just give chance to others.

I believe that this is just a threat for cryptocurrency because it is very in demand right now. Continue to give your trust to cryptocurrency because it will be worth it.

[muf18]

According to this: https://zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-02/jpmorgan-has-some-bad-news-bitcoin-bears

There is at most 6-10B$ entered the market from 2009 - given marketcap, it's artificially inflated to enormous scale.

Tether has 25% share of this capital (if we count 10B$), and 41,66%, if we take into account, that only 6B$ entered market.

That's enormous. Maybe not MT.gox big - but big enough to crash whole market to 60-100B$ marketcap level, which was just a start of elevation to this incredibly stupid valuation, which is now.

In some years I would say 1B$ marketcap is possible, given, that now it has caught some attention. But in next 5-7 years. Not now.
But just, as dotcom bubble - it should first burst, to reset market cycle.

Comparing both dotcom bubble and crypto assets bubble, or maybe not a bubble, but manipulation by big whales, and then FOMO of people, I have composed such graphics

https://scontent-waw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/27164704_1554130358015659_1252017364179825214_o.jpg?oh=129d847f126f0eb2d212628286c45562&oe=5AE409A5

https://scontent-waw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/27164638_1554130451348983_6347524531333896049_o.jpg?oh=5033d8dadf5b8a32d4d2940419c1737e&oe=5AE8CD75

Correction to 166-180B$, as I have compare it with NASDAQ chart.
But... After this correction/crash, things are going to be better - and I think, that will be the best moment.

Of course you could always be early adopter (me too), with more crypto, than you had, but at least, it will be legitimized to enter cryptos.

So wait for the final dip. Don't enter, when it's too hot (even if you miss some "gainz").

It's not a fud, it's a proper and wise advice, don't get slaughter, by whales, and manipulators. They will juice you out, if you enter now, you will get more and more dips.

Nonetheless - if BTC go to 3K - alts can go even lower, then BTC, when it was at 3K last year. Why?
Because there are several hundreds more of crypto assets, so it's getting diluted, and money is sparse between all of them.
A lot of them, don't have any support or fib support, so they can get stompted to the ground (basic assumption, can be wrong).

[drays]

Bitcoin in the future is going to be what the Roman coins are like now.

I.e. rare and valuable?

I guess many people here hugely underestimate Bitcoin's potential (both development potential, and the ideological aspect) and neglect the community standing behind it. BTC is not just another 'asset', it is a whole phenomenon, with many believers behind it, besides just a price speculators and 'tech analysts' collected here. Don't neglect its power.

Well, we'll see who is right. Still many scenarios possible. Its fun to watch, quite entertaining..

If the first guy meant that bitcoin will be extremely expensive in the future, I agree this approximation. But if you wanted to make joke with it, I don't like it. The potential is clear and we will watch what's gonna take place on the exchanges.

No jokes. I don't know exactly what the first guy implied, but my point is - Bitcoin is not just another regular 'asset' to speculate. Bitcoin is much bigger phenomenon, and it came to stay, regardless of all the banks, manipulated media and 'bloombergs' of all sorts who now are celebrating "the end of the Bitcoin bubble". In fact they shit in their pants when they realize what this new movement could bring them, and they try to spread FUD to kill Bitcoin, which is a threat to their usurped dominance. Don't underestimate Bitcoin. Its a different beast these traders have never dealt with before. Don't let narrow-minded price speculators fool you. Look at the big picture.

As to altcoins - alts are nice, and they bring a lot of innovation, however they lack the community power of Bitcoin, and its libertarian spirit. None of them has the power to replace BTC in foreseeable future.

As to technical analysis... well, all those traders are using tech analysis, but come to completely different conclusions based on the same charts. Both OP and masterluk are using tech analysis, but OP predicts bounce to 12K with crash to 1K afterwards, while masterluk now predicts bounce to 15k with jump to 100k afterwards. I start to think this tech analysis is just a way to make your own beliefs and desires look like technically proven theory.

[muf18]

Bitcoin in the future is going to be what the Roman coins are like now.

I.e. rare and valuable?

I guess many people here hugely underestimate Bitcoin's potential (both development potential, and the ideological aspect) and neglect the community standing behind it. BTC is not just another 'asset', it is a whole phenomenon, with many believers behind it, besides just a price speculators and 'tech analysts' collected here. Don't neglect its power.

Well, we'll see who is right. Still many scenarios possible. Its fun to watch, quite entertaining..

If the first guy meant that bitcoin will be extremely expensive in the future, I agree this approximation. But if you wanted to make joke with it, I don't like it. The potential is clear and we will watch what's gonna take place on the exchanges.

No jokes. I don't know exactly what the first guy implied, but my point is - Bitcoin is not just another regular 'asset' to speculate. Bitcoin is much bigger phenomenon, and it came to stay, regardless of all the banks, manipulated media, Boloomergs and other people who now are celebrating "the end of the Bitcoin bubble". In fact they shit in their pants when they realize what this new movement could bring them,. and they try to spread FUD and kill Bitcoin, which is a treat to their dominance.
As to altcoins - alts are nice, and they bring a lot of innovation, however they lack the community power of Bitcoin, and its libertarian spirit. Don't underestimate Bitcoin. Don't let narrow-minded price speculators fool you.

Bitcoin community currently is in 90% driven by price. There is no merit or spirit in community anymore.
Only lambos memes, and mania driving away.
I don't celebrate it, I have one position down actually, due to my stupidity and fomo too.
I just saw what's coming after 12.9K rejection.
Supports are broken.
Alts will dominate in future, but what alts - that's the question.
BTC is obsolete, and will be dwidling with domination.
No-one want to kill bitcoin community - which for now is just a laughing stock, self-pleasing with price pumps.
If they would return, to being humble and just normal (which at best 10% is), I would conside this as a good movement for sanity.
And I'm not against bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, just against massive manipulation and massive speculation which is around today.
Anyone that don't see it, is blind, and don't want to see it. @d5000 - know what I'm doing, and how much I have done for some crypto communities.
But speculation around is scarying me.
Actually a lot of altcoin communities are healthier, because they don't have so big pressure on price, as others.
Jackson Pallmer is saying the same, and he is founder of Dogecoin.
Cursing on me, is just a syndrome of immaturity.

[pitiflin]

Keep whining bitch it ain't going to help.
Bitcoin may have crashed hard but it doesn't mean that it'd not recover or altcoins would disappear in air. Scammy shit like bcc should disappear and it will but other than that most of them would exist like it or not. So suck it up, kid.

[drays]

No jokes. I don't know exactly what the first guy implied, but my point is - Bitcoin is not just another regular 'asset' to speculate. Bitcoin is much bigger phenomenon, and it came to stay, regardless of all the banks, manipulated media, Boloomergs and other people who now are celebrating "the end of the Bitcoin bubble". In fact they shit in their pants when they realize what this new movement could bring them,. and they try to spread FUD and kill Bitcoin, which is a treat to their dominance.
As to altcoins - alts are nice, and they bring a lot of innovation, however they lack the community power of Bitcoin, and its libertarian spirit. Don't underestimate Bitcoin. Don't let narrow-minded price speculators fool you.

Bitcoin community currently is in 90% driven by price. There is no merit or spirit in community anymore.
Only lambos memes, and mania driving away.
I don't celebrate it, I have one position down actually, due to my stupidity and fomo too.
I just saw what's coming after 12.9K rejection.
Supports are broken.
Alts will dominate in future, but what alts - that's the question.
BTC is obsolete, and will be dwidling with domination.
No-one want to kill bitcoin community - which for now is just a laughing stock, self-pleasing with price pumps.
If they would return, to being humble and just normal (which at best 10% is), I would conside this as a good movement for sanity.
And I'm not against bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, just against massive manipulation and massive speculation which is around today.
Anyone that don't see it, is blind, and don't want to see it. @d5000 - know what I'm doing, and how much I have done for some crypto communities.
But speculation around is scarying me.
Actually a lot of altcoin communities are healthier, because they don't have so big pressure on price, as others.
Jackson Pallmer is saying the same, and he is founder of Dogecoin.
Cursing on me, is just a syndrome of immaturity.

I was not referring to you. There are so many doomsayers now, who just look at the price and seed panic. You have very grim outlook on Bitcoin community at the moment, which is your current subjective view, probably inspired by the current price movements, and mostly by the fact you have not sold enough to feel yourself comfortable during this correction. The 'lambo' people are not the community, they are just passers not worth of much attention.

Don't panic, just watch, and don't let others manipulate you by affecting your mood. They are doing their game, let them play it, and let us be calm and positive. Be Zen, we are on the right side

[Febo]

What adoption ?

Adoption that happened from 2014 to 2018.


About the length of the bear market is hard to say. Last one was a year and a half. But reason for that was that we had 2 bull runs in 2013. So this bear market should be shorter. But because of more adoption and less volatility should also be longer then previous.   So this are + and -  what means that might be similar as was last.

Yes that surely will be a shorter one, because bitcoin is now getting great support from the investors and they will never want bitcoin value to drop so much, in fact they know the importance of bitcoin and will never sell their holding bitcoin but will try to manage to hold their bitcoin for a good time when its price will start increasing again. I think bitcoin still has good potential and 2018 will be another great year for bitcoin price.

There us of course bigger support, but they also need to support way higher price. in 2014 was supported few $100 price and now will be supported few $1000 price.  For tat you need 10 times more supporters as in 2014.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Time for a bounce? A speculative buy order has been placed as follows...

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 8600
CLOSE: 12058
STOP: 7960*
RISK: 7.5%
REWARD: 40%

*A hedge, not a stop-loss, has been placed at 7690 as there may be a final flush to 7600 area.

Barring any wave subdivisions, there are now a sufficient count of waves to suggest the first Primary a-wave of the crash is over.
The a-wave decline from 06-JAN-2018 ought to be retraced by a b-wave bounce retracing up to 38.2% (11510) to 50% (12606) with the average being at 12058.

Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, Robert Prechter:

"b-waves — b-waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of oddlotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often 'unconfirmed' by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by c-wave. If the analyst can easily say to himself, 'there is something wrong with this market', chances are it's a b-wave."

Speculative and idealised Elliott Wave models indicative of probable price and structure, not timing as follows:

https://i.imgur.com/s8eQNai.png
https://i.imgur.com/3O9Hluy.png

An additional buy position ordered as follows and awaiting execution; i.e. identical as above:

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 8600
CLOSE: 12058
STOP: 7960
RISK: 7.5%
REWARD: 40%
 

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Time for a bounce? A speculative buy order has been placed as follows...

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 8600
CLOSE: 12058
STOP: 7960*
RISK: 7.5%
REWARD: 40%

*A hedge, not a stop-loss, has been placed at 7690 as there may be a final flush to 7600 area.

Barring any wave subdivisions, there are now a sufficient count of waves to suggest the first Primary a-wave of the crash is over.
The a-wave decline from 06-JAN-2018 ought to be retraced by a b-wave bounce retracing up to 38.2% (11510) to 50% (12606) with the average being at 12058.

Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, Robert Prechter:

"b-waves — b-waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of oddlotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often 'unconfirmed' by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by c-wave. If the analyst can easily say to himself, 'there is something wrong with this market', chances are it's a b-wave."

Speculative and idealised Elliott Wave models indicative of probable price and structure, not timing as follows:

https://i.imgur.com/s8eQNai.png
https://i.imgur.com/3O9Hluy.png

1. ^ Hedge activated on this trade.

An additional buy position ordered as follows and awaiting execution; i.e. identical as above:

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 8600
CLOSE: 12058
STOP: 7960
RISK: 7.5%
REWARD: 40%

2. ^ This order was not activated, and hence has been subsequently cancelled.


It appears a final flush to around 7600 (Bitfinex) is underway which represents a Fibboncci 61.8% retracement from the all-time highs set on 17-DEC-2017.

Currently awaiting Coinbase to join Bitfinex to take out the lows of 02-FEB-2018.


 

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Projecting a bottom using Fibonacci extensions with Elliott Wave relationships (illustration below)...

Zone 1
@7599.0: 61.8% of entire market.
@7514.5: Intermediate-c = Intermediate-a * 1.5
@7146.7: Intermediate-c = Intermediate-a * 1.618
@7384.0: Minor-c = Minor-a * 0.5
@7411.0: Average

Zone 2
@6918.4: Major-c = Major-a * 0.786
@6623.0: Intermediate-c = Intermediate-a * 1.786
@6884.9: Minor-c = Minor-a * 0.618
@6808.8: Average

Average: 7109.9 (Bitfinex)

[MNDan]

If you can't post a log graph, I have zero faith in anything you say.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

If you can't post a log graph, I have zero faith in anything you say.

Fibonacci relationships between Elliott Waves remain unchanged between logarithmic and arithmetic graphs.

Ralph Nelson Elliott advised to chart in logarithmic format for long-term charts (weekly, monthly annually), and arithmetic for short-term charts (weekly, daily, hourly).

Faith...?

[drays]

Looks convincing, indeed

in fact Bitcoin needs a good correction, for all the greedy pseudo-investors to shake out, so BTC could fly to the sky. This correction is partly natural, partly induced by all the bankster/gov haters doing coordinated attack. Due to the latter, the correction could be deeper than it should have been. Well, let it be deep - the higher it will fly afterwards

As to when it will fly back...? It seems to me, not sooner than waters are calmed down, when the recently joined greedy sheep panic dumps and returns to their everyday job. I know a lot of people here who didn't  spend even 10 minutes to read and understand the technology and the nature of the Bitcoin, but bought it near the top intending to just sell it back in few weeks and get their fast'n'easy profit. Those short term buyers are exactly the ballast which is going to be shaken out. It could indeed reach 2k, giving a good chance to accumulate for the ones who are long term. Watch the Lightning

[Enjel]

Looks convincing, indeed

in fact Bitcoin needs a good correction, for all the greedy pseudo-investors to shake out, so BTC could fly to the sky. This correction is partly natural, partly induced by all the bankster/gov haters doing coordinated attack. Due to the latter, the correction could be deeper than it should have been. Well, let it be deep - the higher it will fly afterwards

As to when it will fly back...? It seems to me, not sooner than waters are calmed down, when the recently joined greedy sheep panic dumps and returns to their everyday job. I know a lot of people here who didn't  spend even 10 minutes to read and understand the technology and the nature of the Bitcoin, but bought it near the top intending to just sell it back up in few weeks and get their fast'n'easy profit. Those short term buyers are exactly the ballast which is going to be shaken out. It could indeed reach 2k, giving a good chance to accumulate for the ones who are long term. Watch the Lightning

I'm a greedy pseudo-investor. I believe that right now we are just a bump in the early-adoption part of the graph, since crypto is still very small.

I'm worried, but am I going to sell or get "shaken out"? No. Better to work on other things while this bear market plays out. 2 years later, and maybe I'll open my wallet and find that Bitcoin is 100k.

[DroidR17A]

“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Don't believe the FUD.

Cryptocurrency Gloom? It’s About the Bigger Picture: https://www.ccn.com/opinion-the-bigger-picture/

Blockchain Tech Can ‘Change the World’, Says South Korea’s Finance Minister: https://www.ccn.com/blockchain-tech-can-change-world-says-south-koreas-finance-minister/

In other words, Keep Calm & HODL.

[drays]

I'm a greedy pseudo-investor. I believe that right now we are just a bump in the early-adoption part of the graph, since crypto is still very small.

You aren't. At least not in my terms. You see the big picture and want to invest in something new and promising, to see it grow, and to take your benefit from this growth. That makes you a genuine investor, not a pseudo one (even if you are greedy )

I'm worried, but am I going to sell or get "shaken out"? No. Better to work on other things while this bear market plays out. 2 years later, and maybe I'll open my wallet and find that Bitcoin is 100k.

Touche. That's exactly what I am doing now. Stopped selling at 10k. There is a lot of things to keep myself busy, until BTC finds its way up. No need to watch those graphs all the time. One BTC = 1 BTC. Alts vs BTC is something more interesting (to me at least).

Sorry if my statements above had been offensive to you. They actually refer to the latest $-oriented investors. I have seen them a lot here locally - they don't understand anything about BTC, they don't believe in BTC being the future money, most of them are sure it is a scam/ponzi/whatever and most importantly, they don't even care if it is. They are only thinking of this as a way to make some quick $$ - buy, then dump at the peak just before the 'bubble burst'. I was referring to those people. BTC needs to shake them out, and this is the point of this correction.

@DroidR17A: +1
If one is not professional trader like the OP (who can make educated assumptions and make a lot of money during this kind of market), its better to just Keep Calm and HODL.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Amidst a global stock market flash crash, a spectacular sell-off continues in cryptocurrencies at an acceleration quicker than anticipated!

Rather surprisingly, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the all-time highs, and nearby zones of clustered support levels (derived from wave extension relationships); have all failed to provide any meaningful areas of confluence.

And so therefore, the next natural support zone is at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the all-time highs; i.e. at $4257 (Bitfinex).

In regards to the anatomy of wave formation, a rare Triple Zig-Zag structure may be in progress to conclude the final stages of the first crash wave.