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xxxx123abcxxxx (OP)
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February 07, 2018, 07:54:14 PM |
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Calculating on previous pattern, we can see that first drop ended on 340-345$ (here 6000$).
Rebound was to - 680$ -> 11800$ ?
Then drop to 180-200$ -> 3100 - 3200$ ?
Ok, I read about elliot waves and cycles more carefully, now I understand, so in your opinion, you think we are going to have B-wave in the big corrective more move, which first moves appeared from 2014?
—From 06-JAN-2018 to 06-FEB-2018 (exactly 1 month), Bitcoin dropped from 17174 to 6000 (Bitfinex) at a loss of 65%. —This 1 month decline is being considered and labelled as Primary-a wave. —The analysis suggests that this Primary-a wave is now over at 6000, and a Primary-b bounce to around 9865 on average is now underway. —Once the Primary-b wave bounce is over, the market would be expected to decline to new lows, which would be labelled as a Primary-c decline. —The completed Primary-a-b-c structure would be part of an overall completed Cycle-c wave. Of course, that's the guesswork and speculation; we'll have to see how the market plays! Indicative of structure, not time... https://i.imgur.com/z6nvi4o.pngDo you consider, that historic patterns too, have some play here? A new market, a bear market, began on 17-DEC-2017. And so therefore, any patterns prior to that date are only applicable to the bull market, and not the current bear market. |
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drays
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February 07, 2018, 09:37:18 PM |
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A new market, a bear market, began on 17-DEC-2017.
And so therefore, any patterns prior to that date are only applicable to the bull market, and not the current bear market.
The guy is talking about 2013-2014 market patterns. Or... are you suggesting the Jan 2014 -Jan 2015 Bitcoin market was a bull market..?  |
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Slark
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February 07, 2018, 09:44:19 PM |
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Honestly, I have enough of these topics when someone is claiming that the cryptocurrency is gonna crash.
And every time when something like our current decline is happening they are totally happy and think that this is something they predicted.
Ha, fat chance - no one could predict anything linked to the future price of cryptocurrency, we can only speculate and base our knowledge on extrapolation!
Don't waste your time with theories who have no scientific background and instead are constructed to be FUD spreaders.
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g-uid
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February 07, 2018, 10:34:37 PM |
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Honestly, I have enough of these topics when someone is claiming that the cryptocurrency is gonna crash.
And every time when something like our current decline is happening they are totally happy and think that this is something they predicted.
Ha, fat chance - no one could predict anything linked to the future price of cryptocurrency, we can only speculate and base our knowledge on extrapolation!
Don't waste your time with theories who have no scientific background and instead are constructed to be FUD spreaders.
Suggest you read this post in its entirety. OP is not the typical conjecture bullshit you find around here. He has been right a lot more than he has been wrong. |
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xxxx123abcxxxx (OP)
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February 07, 2018, 10:38:17 PM |
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A new market, a bear market, began on 17-DEC-2017.
And so therefore, any patterns prior to that date are only applicable to the bull market, and not the current bear market.
The guy is talking about 2013-2014 market patterns. Or... are you suggesting the Jan 2014 -Jan 2015 Bitcoin market was a bull market..? —2013-2015 was a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bear market which declined 85% in value; but in an overall secular (i.e. long-term) bull market. —Whatever price patterns occurred in the 2013-2015 cyclical bear market, remain and are applicable to that market. —However, fractals appear on multiple timescales, but those price patterns are indicative of structure —not time, nor price. —The secular bull market from 2013-2017 is now over, and a secular bear market is underway probably elapsing 2017-2020.  |
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muf18
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February 07, 2018, 10:41:27 PM |
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A new market, a bear market, began on 17-DEC-2017.
And so therefore, any patterns prior to that date are only applicable to the bull market, and not the current bear market.
The guy is talking about 2013-2014 market patterns. Or... are you suggesting the Jan 2014 -Jan 2015 Bitcoin market was a bull market..? —2013-2015 was a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bear market which declined 85% in value; but in an overall secular (i.e. long-term) bull market. —Whatever price patterns occurred in the 2013-2015 cyclical bear market, remain and are applicable to that market. —However, fractals appear on multiple timescales, but those price patterns are indicative of structure —not time, nor price. —The secular bull market from 2013-2017 is now over, and a secular bear market is underway probably elapsing 2017-2020. Wow.. Really? I thought that max 6-12 months of bear market would be possible, but till 2020? Would have given a lot of bag holders, a big punch to their stomach. Makes me wanna believe, because a lot of bs, and FOMO idiots, as well, as emotional driven only public is on it. Well, it doesn't make it different from NASDAQ 2000 period, tho, we have heared the same comments "we don't get it, we are stupid" just now it replaced by "it's FUD". Yeah, well everything you can place as FUD, and just don't give a fuck around, because you are delusional prick. Doesn't make you a different, than being such a fanboy of football team or whatever. |
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xxxx123abcxxxx (OP)
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February 07, 2018, 11:06:04 PM |
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Wow.. Really?
I thought that max 6-12 months of bear market would be possible, but till 2020?
Would have given a lot of bag holders, a big punch to their stomach.
Makes me wanna believe, because a lot of bs, and FOMO idiots, as well, as emotional driven only public is on it.
Well, it doesn't make it different from NASDAQ 2000 period, tho, we have heared the same comments "we don't get it, we are stupid" just now it replaced by "it's FUD".
Yeah, well everything you can place as FUD, and just don't give a fuck around, because you are delusional prick. Doesn't make you a different, than being such a fanboy of football team or whatever.
Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unwinding bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases 80%-90% in value; see here: http://www.thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes/2013-2015 in Bitcoin was a cyclical bear market elapsing 2 years, and declined 85%. So, DEC-2017 to DEC-2019 approx. |
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BitcoinIntern
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February 07, 2018, 11:26:50 PM |
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Wow...you were so accurate so far. But I just hope it doesn't hit the bottom as you have mentioned in your analysis. Thanks. |
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drays
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February 08, 2018, 12:09:14 AM |
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Wow.. Really?
I thought that max 6-12 months of bear market would be possible, but till 2020?
Would have given a lot of bag holders, a big punch to their stomach.
Makes me wanna believe, because a lot of bs, and FOMO idiots, as well, as emotional driven only public is on it.
Well, it doesn't make it different from NASDAQ 2000 period, tho, we have heared the same comments "we don't get it, we are stupid" just now it replaced by "it's FUD".
Yeah, well everything you can place as FUD, and just don't give a fuck around, because you are delusional prick. Doesn't make you a different, than being such a fanboy of football team or whatever.
Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unwinding bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases 80%-90% in value; see here: http://www.thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes/2013-2015 in Bitcoin was a cyclical bear market elapsing 2 years, and declined 85%. So, DEC-2017 to DEC-2019 approx. I have been trading on many altcoin markets for quite a while - starting from the shittiest altcoins to pretty solid ones. Have seen too many heavily manipulated markets, which don't follow any tech analysis rules. Have seen there many crashes like this one, or even worse - 10x, 20x is normal there. Unfortunately BTC market is still small and thus is prone to manipulations, now it drew the attention of new players with huge capital. This market lately seems to be heavily manipulated, and I assume it will follow the path the manipulators would prefer it to go to. Hence those usual analogies to 'bubbled' markets might not apply. We'll see. That could be an interesting journey. |
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fabiorem
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February 08, 2018, 12:20:26 AM |
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—2013-2015 was a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bear market which declined 85% in value; but in an overall secular (i.e. long-term) bull market.
—Whatever price patterns occurred in the 2013-2015 cyclical bear market, remain and are applicable to that market.
—However, fractals appear on multiple timescales, but those price patterns are indicative of structure —not time, nor price.
—The secular bull market from 2013-2017 is now over, and a secular bear market is underway probably elapsing 2017-2020.
2013-2015 was not short term for crypto, because the crypto market operates in a different time frame. One day for crypto is like one month for stock markets. So when you see, for example, the dotcom bubble, theres 15 years for a recovery, whereas for crypto it would be 15 months. Crypto is much more fast, the time is shorter, and the generations requiring it are more immediatists than the generations used to stock markets. They want it for yesterday. So 2013-2015 was a long bear market, like a 10-year period in stock bear markets. That's why you bears looks like doomsday callers, because some of you (the most noisy ones) came from those stock markets. You want to buy it cheap, but most of the demand for crypto is coming from immediatist generations who wants it FAST. |
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KwizatzHaderach
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February 08, 2018, 12:22:37 AM |
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I think BTC markets are manipulated nowadays as more institutions have joined the game. Much of the news covering cryptos are also very negative nowadays. Probably be holding the bag until 2020 and then let us see.
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muf18
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February 08, 2018, 12:49:28 AM |
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—2013-2015 was a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bear market which declined 85% in value; but in an overall secular (i.e. long-term) bull market.
—Whatever price patterns occurred in the 2013-2015 cyclical bear market, remain and are applicable to that market.
—However, fractals appear on multiple timescales, but those price patterns are indicative of structure —not time, nor price.
—The secular bull market from 2013-2017 is now over, and a secular bear market is underway probably elapsing 2017-2020.
2013-2015 was not short term for crypto, because the crypto market operates in a different time frame. One day for crypto is like one month for stock markets. So when you see, for example, the dotcom bubble, theres 15 years for a recovery, whereas for crypto it would be 15 months. Crypto is much more fast, the time is shorter, and the generations requiring it are more immediatists than the generations used to stock markets. They want it for yesterday. So 2013-2015 was a long bear market, like a 10-year period in stock bear markets. That's why you bears looks like doomsday callers, because some of you (the most noisy ones) came from those stock markets. You want to buy it cheap, but most of the demand for crypto is coming from immediatist generations who wants it FAST. How much capital have millenial generation? Didn't they already max out credit cards and accounts? I see classic dead cat bounce for now. Funds are probably safe now, and have cashed out most in the most volume days, now they are gonna make maybe last pump and say bye, bye, and I don't see any major capital want to buy at these elevated prices. As if you say "they want cheap" - so either they are from 1-2K$, or lower, or they will wait until show will be over, and pick up slowly. A lot of people have make good chunk of money, but it's as always at the expense of others. A lot of people were drugged into crypto, and they will think it's a scam, because they lost already 50-70% of their investment and can lose even more. So yeah, if somebody is buying here I want to see how we will perform in next 2-3months, cause there are huge flags, that top is on. |
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muf18
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February 08, 2018, 01:46:13 AM
Last edit: February 08, 2018, 09:56:14 PM by muf18 |
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Good point. This news has got us rallied to 8.4K Nice try for now. But I wonder, if parents will give them their money to throw on some coins, when first of all most dont understand tech, second it's artificially inflated, and price doesn't reflect actual fundamentals, and inflow is extremely thin. Some people were calling that this will be going out like forever, and will be 2-3x times bigger than NASDAQ composite bubble. Well, it could be going like this, if anyone could buy any crypto with any fiat, and exchange would be much more accessable, and regulated, not like now pumps and then dumps. And nasdaq bubble has got, even if we calculate from bottom 100 points to 5000 points. Started in reality about 1000 points. Ended at 1100-1200. Crypto was going from 3B$ to staggering 850B$, that's a massive, so much bigger marketcap, and such a big growth within 2.5 years. Here we have crypto max was about 850B$. Now 370B$ Started at 30B$ Ended:  This is tricky, cause there are a lot of new coins and icos - but a lot of icos especially, if we hit hard during this bear - can go to pennies, if people see what they have in hands. Thin orderbooks, will give s boost to bigger collapse. Rich crypto billionaries forbes list, resambles 2000 dotcom rich list, calling the top quite well. I can see it ending between 60 and 170B$. |
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muf18
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February 09, 2018, 02:43:22 PM |
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Hey OP, would you update your outlook?
Everything seems going good, but is the same still?
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xxxx123abcxxxx (OP)
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February 09, 2018, 05:56:20 PM |
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Hey OP, would you update your outlook?
Everything seems going good, but is the same still?
No change to current outlook. Quick guesswork would suggest... —First leg of the bounce could complete at around the first support/resistance area near approx 9350 (Bitfinex). —Then a possible pullback to approx 7600-8000. —Followed by a resumption of the bounce towards 10000, or 9865 on average. In summary, the bounce is still underway, and the following post still remains in play: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg29778823#msg29778823 |
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xxxx123abcxxxx (OP)
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February 11, 2018, 01:29:52 AM |
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No change to current outlook. Quick guesswork would suggest... —First leg of the bounce could complete at around the first support/resistance area near approx 9350 (Bitfinex). —Then a possible pullback to approx 7600-8000. —Followed by a resumption of the bounce towards 10000, or 9865 on average. In summary, the bounce is still underway, and the following post still remains in play: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg29778823#msg29778823A potential roadmap for le weekend; indicative of price and structure, not time...  |
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MrBigHang
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February 13, 2018, 12:08:35 AM |
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Entire marketcap of crypto is 400bill right now so the claim of hundreds of billions is a bit of an exaggeration if you own 40% of the market. You'd own practically the entire market if you had hundreds of billions, not 40 percent. |
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xxxx123abcxxxx (OP)
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February 13, 2018, 09:37:12 PM |
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After rallying 55% from the 6000 (Bitfinex) lows in just 4 days, the market has been drifting sideways for 4 days. The sideways wander could either suggest that the first leg of the rally is complete, and a retracement is currently underway. Or, the market is consolidating in preparation to breakout and resume the move higher. Taking out 8950 (Coinbase) and 9000 (Bitfinex) to the upside would confirm the rally is resuming. However for now, weakening price action appears to be favoring a retracement. A typical retracement ought to be around 50% which is at 7482 (Coinbase) and 7538 (Bitfinex). At 7599 (Bitfinex), represents 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire Bitcoin market. Given the aforementioned criteria, the following short position has been ordered: BTC/USD (COINBASE) OPEN: 8600 CLOSE: 7482 STOP: 8950 RISK: 4% REWARD: 13% Afterwards, the expectation would be for the market to resume the Primary degree b-wave bounce, which may retrace up to 38.2% of the Primary a-wave decline which began on 06-JAN-2018. The following Fibonacci levels may serve as target areas of where the rally may conclude towards the psychological 10000 level, Bitfinex prices: 1. 9350: approx previous line of support/resistance. 2. 9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement level of entire Bitcoin market. 3. 10298: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 06-JAN-2018   |
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