2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[muf18]

I mostly agree with the general situation the OP is describing - we're inside a temporary bounce in a bear market - although I have other "target prices" (mainly because I don't take into account only TA but also factors like adoption, technological cryptocurrency evolution and mass psychology).

I expect that the current upwards price movement is strong enough to test the superior line of the mid-term bearish trend channel that begun at $20000. Shorter-term channels have been relatively important in the last downmove. The current impulse wave may even be strong enough for a false breakout up to ~13-14K, similar to what ocurred in early to mid-2014.

Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unravelling bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases approx 90% in value (thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes)

Applying the metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin between $850 and $2500 around 2Q2019.

In past Bitcoin bubbles, bear markets (I define those phases as "bear markets" when Bitcoin lost, in a single downmove, more than 50% of its value) were much shorter:

- 2011: 6 months (June-November)
- 2013: 3-4 months (April-July; you could even say "days" if you take into account the short dip to $50 in April)
- 2013-15: 14 months (December 2013-January 2015)

The reason is, in my opinion, the extreme high volatility - a result of three main factors:
- many unskilled investors that are vulnerable to FUD and FOMO
- the lack of a definitive "valuation metric" - look here for some thoughts on it (and read the linked article).
- the lack of real usage for payments; which makes the connection to real-world goods and services harder (a "problem" specific to currencies)

That's why I don't expect a 2 year bear market; I would predict a definitive low in late 2018 or early 2019, and thus a similar price evolution to the 2013-15 downtrend. I expect the definitive low to be between 1800 and 3000 (two points of the upmove both tested by uptrends and downtrends).

However, things can turn bullish at any time if the scalability problem is solved, for example, with a reliably working Lightning Network. I don't expect that to happen, however, until mid-2018 as a very optimistic estimation.

There isn't such thing as FUD. It's good, if you have doubts in the crypto especially at such valuations, because it was enormously pumped, by a lot of strange groups, from stock markets abusers and scammers, to other shady entities.

Currently cryptocurrencies markets and space is overriden with scams and p'n'd obvious scams.
Verge is pumping again for whatever reason - just because it has some entities interested to pump it again.
And a lot of cryptos work like these. It isn't normal, and if it will still be like this:
1/ Nobody will perceive this space serious, a lot of people will see it as a penny stocks speculation
2/ When hype die down, entities will hold their shitcoins to pump and unload, or will be unloading and surpressing prices on a lot of coins.
3/ Price speculation is killing purpose - useful currency, and adoption is almost 0.

[1714176058]

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[1714176058]

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[d5000]

There isn't such thing as FUD. It's good, if you have doubts in the crypto especially at such valuations, because it was enormously pumped, by a lot of strange groups, from stock markets abusers and scammers, to other shady entities.

Currently cryptocurrencies markets and space is overriden with scams and p'n'd obvious scams.
Verge is pumping again for whatever reason - just because it has some entities interested to pump it again.

I think we agree with the fact that 95% of all cryptocurrencies are overvalued.

But you cannot deny that there is some FUD. I don't speak about "bad news" like the China bans - bad news are bad news, not FUD. The China bans, for example, meant that Bitcoin has practically lost about 1/7 of the world population as possible adopters. Even the Tether story - I wouldn't qualify it as FUD but as legitimate doubts about a pretty shady business model. FUD occurs mostly in forums, on Twitter, Facebook etc. There are specialized FUD accounts here at Bitcointalk, as there are FOMO accounts. And their targets are the "noobs" that cannot distinguish "real bad news" from FUD. (In the German forum, we have one account that was ultra-bearish until the 6000 bottom and predicted about $1000/BTC or less. Now he's talking about $20K. Seriously ...)

And a lot of cryptos work like these. It isn't normal, and if it will still be like this:
1/ Nobody will perceive this space serious, a lot of people will see it as a penny stocks speculation
2/ When hype die down, entities will hold their shitcoins to pump and unload, or will be unloading and surpressing prices on a lot of coins.
3/ Price speculation is killing purpose - useful currency, and adoption is almost 0.

1 and 2 apply almost exclusively to altcoins - mostly to the "hypecoins" that are constantly pumped and dumped -, and I agree here. But Bitcoin itself is increasingly taken seriously, only the volatility problem must be solved (apart from the scalability problem and the energy problem - we know which coin(s) could possibly solve these problems ).

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

The Rally Resumes

The market has broken out to the upside and taken out what was assumed to be the end of the bear market rally at 10271 (Bitfinex).

Since the breakout from 10271, a subdivision and extension of the waves, the market has further rallied an additional 8% which has recovered the 4% loss from the previous mentioned short position. From the 6000 lows, the market has now staged a 90% gain.

The first upside resistance at 10926 where the first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) equalling the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-10926), has now been surpassed —quite a rally.

Next areas of Fibonacci resistance clusters as follows:
@11306: 38.2% retracement of the downtrend from 17-DEC-2017
@11626: 50% retracement of the downtrend from 06-JAN-2018
@11652: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.236 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-11652).

Any of the above levels may serve to end the bear market rally, with the average being at 11528.

At time of writing, taking out the low of 10522 would be the first indication to suggest the rally losing momentum. At which price, a second attempt short position would be placed with a stop at the previous swing high.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Retry Short

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3IVGEP9P-2018-Cryptocurrency-Crash-Elliott-Wave-Recommencing/

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10522
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11250
RISK: 7%
REWARD: 60%

Happy Chinese New Bear!

[KimJungUn]

I was intrigued by this post.  I wondered to myself, how accurate and precise are you actually?  Then I looked at your previous works located at http://stevepuri.blogspot.com/2010/07/s-speculative-elliott-wave-projection.html  I realized that you were wrong with the majority of your "predictions".  You're trying to find trends with something that is not there, you don't know how the market will react as no one does.

This is a BS thread with someone trying to BS everyone with their BS predictions. Move along.

PS:  I took snapshots of all your previous graphs if you try and delete them.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

I was intrigued by this post.  I wondered to myself, how accurate and precise are you actually?  Then I looked at your previous works located at http://stevepuri.blogspot.com/2010/07/s-speculative-elliott-wave-projection.html  I realized that you were wrong with the majority of your "predictions".  You're trying to find trends with something that is not there, you don't know how the market will react as no one does.

This is a BS thread with someone trying to BS everyone with their BS predictions. Move along.

PS:  I took snapshots of all your previous graphs if you try and delete them.

Ah, the old blog site from +10 years ago, as you've pointed out, is here:
stevepuri.blogspot.co.uk

There are both failed and successful posts there; suppose you have to start somewhere —thank you for the nostalgia!

In regards to current accuracy and precision, feel free to the see the cryptocurrency predictions from 08-JAN-2018 posted here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg27738471#msg27738471

This thread contains a fair share of speculative losses and gains with no absolute claim or agenda.

[KimJungUn]

I was intrigued by this post.  I wondered to myself, how accurate and precise are you actually?

Then I looked at your previous works located at http://stevepuri.blogspot.com/2010/07/s-speculative-elliott-wave-projection.html

I realized that you were wrong with the majority of your "predictions".  You're trying to find trends with something that is not there, you don't know how the market will react as no one does.

This is a BS thread with someone trying to BS everyone with their BS predictions.

Move along.

PS:  I took snapshots of all your previous graphs if you try and delete them.

Ah, the old blog site from +10 years ago, as you've pointed out, is here:
stevepuri.blogspot.co.uk

There are a fair share of failed and successful posts there; suppose you have to start somewhere —thank you for the nostalgia!

In regards to accuracy and precision, feel free to the see the cryptocurrency predictions from 08-JAN-2018 posted here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg27738471#msg27738471

Personally don't have an agenda, happy to trade both sides of the market, be it bull or bear.
This thread contains a fair share of speculative losses and gains with no absolute claim.

There are a fair share of failed and successful posts there; suppose you have to start somewhere —thank you for the nostalgia!

The majority are failed.  Anyone can feel free to look at it, I have not seen 1 correct "elliot wave" prediction correct on your blog.

In regards to accuracy and precision, feel free to the see the cryptocurrency predictions from 08-JAN-2018 posted here:

Every new year contains a short bear market previous has a short dip.  There was no prediction.

Personally don't have an agenda, happy to trade both sides of the market, be it bull or bear.
This thread contains a fair share of speculative losses and gains with no absolute claim.

Never said you did, but telling people to up vote on Reddit and to share is kind of suspect.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Okay, great; thank you KimJungUn; detective work appreciated.  

[KimJungUn]

Okay, great; thank you KimJungUn; detective work appreciated.  

Thanks!  I call out scammers (Steve Puri) when they show up.  Well, I don't know if you're a true scammer, but you're trying to take advantage of this situation in crypto.  There's no downside with doing what you're doing from your viewpoint, if you're wrong nothing comes to it.  If you are correct, people will say that you predicted the market!  No one can predict the markets, and as shown by your previous blog you sure as hell damn know that as well.  Trying to spread your bullshit and have people brigade on other boards kind of raised a red flag.  Just want people to be aware that your previous history is an utter failure.


Have a good one!

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Bitcoin Weekends

[muf18]

Okay, great; thank you KimJungUn; detective work appreciated.  

Thanks!  I call out scammers (Steve Puri) when they show up.  Well, I don't know if you're a true scammer, but you're trying to take advantage of this situation in crypto.  There's no downside with doing what you're doing from your viewpoint, if you're wrong nothing comes to it.  If you are correct, people will say that you predicted the market!  No one can predict the markets, and as shown by your previous blog you sure as hell damn know that as well.  Trying to spread your bullshit and have people brigade on other boards kind of raised a red flag.  Just want people to be aware that your previous history is an utter failure.


Have a good one!

You are clearly one with agenda.
He is telling, what he sees on the chart.
I see weakness, and bear market immient too, and if you can't see it, you clearly didn't even try to make some basic attempts for TA.
No-one can predict market - that's true. But with TA you can make your chances better at finding patterns, and various types of price action, strenght, volume, resistance and supports.
And with crypto it works good, even better than in normal equities or indicies (of course there are manipulation so you must watch out of needles on the charts to not get stopped out.
Would you call me a scammer and FUDster too?
Because I'm not within your clear, bright picture.

I don't agree on some points (like vaporing alts below 2B$ capitalization - they will probably be under pressure, but they won't vapor away), but it's not a point to make personal innuendos.

[KimJungUn]

Okay, great; thank you KimJungUn; detective work appreciated.  

Thanks!  I call out scammers (Steve Puri) when they show up.  Well, I don't know if you're a true scammer, but you're trying to take advantage of this situation in crypto.  There's no downside with doing what you're doing from your viewpoint, if you're wrong nothing comes to it.  If you are correct, people will say that you predicted the market!  No one can predict the markets, and as shown by your previous blog you sure as hell damn know that as well.  Trying to spread your bullshit and have people brigade on other boards kind of raised a red flag.  Just want people to be aware that your previous history is an utter failure.


Have a good one!

You are clearly one with agenda.
He is telling, what he sees on the chart.
I see weakness, and bear market immient too, and if you can't see it, you clearly didn't even try to make some basic attempts for TA.
No-one can predict market - that's true. But with TA you can make your chances better at finding patterns, and various types of price action, strenght, volume, resistance and supports.
And with crypto it works good, even better than in normal equities or indicies (of course there are manipulation so you must watch out of needles on the charts to not get stopped out.
Would you call me a scammer and FUDster too?
Because I'm not within your clear, bright picture.

I don't agree on some points (like vaporing alts below 2B$ capitalization - they will probably be under pressure, but they won't vapor away), but it's not a point to make personal innuendos.

You are clearly one with agenda.

I have no agenda.

He is telling, what he sees on the chart.

And I'm telling this board what I see on his website; this mans previous failures.  Looking at his history, we can see his predictions and analysis is wrong.  History doesn't lie.  People do.

I see weakness, and bear market immient too, and if you can't see it, you clearly didn't even try to make some basic attempts for TA.

You clearly didn't read my post.  You are now the second person that failed in this thread.

Anyone can feel free to do what they want, but I am here to give everyone the information that readers deserve to know and let people know this mans previous failures are prevalent throughout his blog.  The information is there, it's your choice what you want to do with it.

[muf18]

I saw it earlier.

For me it looks he said - his beginnings - I have clearly a better trader skills or chartists, than I was 2 years ago, and after 10 years I think he improved quite considerably too.

You can watch and play his charts on tradingview, which were clear on point, with this downturn.

He has made a mistake calling a bottom to early, than overextending it - but most of the movements were quite right.

I read what you have written. You wrote about, that majority of his preditictions and analysis were wrong in 2010, so you basically make an assumption on this, that he probably will be wrong today too.

Ah, and also that he is spreading bullshit, and that he is probably a scammer, and trying to take advantage of this situation in crypto (wtf? What situation? He wants to make money on trades, and, if "that's taking advantage of situation", clearly you don't have an agenda /s).

You can deny his opinion, yeah, but you make personal innuendos, of something that was 10 years ago, and you try not to see how successful (or unsuccessful), he was now, just dissmissing it, as "Every new year contains a short bear market previous has a short dip", and "trying to find trends with something that is not there".

I have seen clear rejections on candles 1H and 4H and clear response of the market to his exact numbers. You can check it, it's one of the things, why I follow his analysis closely.

I guess, that people, which have a lot of arguments against tether/bitfinex or any other crypto markets points-of-failure, is also regarded by you as bullshit, isn't it?

[exstasie]

I'm skeptical of a larger bear market, but as I said up-thread, the $11,000s were a clear profit-taking level. Ideally, we'll go on a fishing expedition and form a stronger mode off the $7,500-$8,000 area (previous pivot supports). Then retry for the $14,000s.

I have no agenda.

He is telling, what he sees on the chart.

And I'm telling this board what I see on his website; this mans previous failures.  Looking at his history, we can see his predictions and analysis is wrong.  History doesn't lie.  People do.

Most of us don't care about peoples' track record. If someone has made some good calls, good for them. The truth is, the technicians that made this forum great once are gone. I'm here looking for trading ideas, especially those that conflict with mine. And I'm here to gauge sentiment. I'm not here to pick apart peoples' past calls and berate them over it. And if somebody is going to do that, they should be bringing their own analysis to the table.

[shunyata]

Bitcoin Weekends

https://i.imgur.com/LO6AECY.png

I like this chart a lot. However you conveniently left out 2/11 which was followed by a green candle and a run of over $2k. I think this chart applies aptly in a bear market, but are we in a bear market? I recall during the run up from October that every Monday morning price seemed to go up.

Looking back:

Sunday 11/12 - followed by a green candle and big rally
Sunday 11/19 - followed by a green candle and consolidation
Sunday 11/26 - followed by a green candle and rally
Sunday 12/3   - followed by a green candle and big rally
Sunday 12/10 - followed by a huge green candle

Then the pattern flips to bear starting with your first date of 12/17.

So this pattern may just as well tell us tomorrow will be a big green day if we are out of the bear and back in the bull. Looks like Mondays are trend confirmation days.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Bitcoin Weekends

https://i.imgur.com/LO6AECY.png

I like this chart a lot. However you conveniently left out 2/11 which was followed by a green candle and a run of over $2k. I think this chart applies aptly in a bear market, but are we in a bear market? I recall during the run up from October that every Monday morning price seemed to go up.

Looking back:

Sunday 11/12 - followed by a green candle and big rally
Sunday 11/19 - followed by a green candle and consolidation
Sunday 11/26 - followed by a green candle and rally
Sunday 12/3   - followed by a green candle and big rally
Sunday 12/10 - followed by a huge green candle

Then the pattern flips to bear starting with your first date of 12/17.

So this pattern may just as well tell us tomorrow will be a big green day if we are out of the bear and back in the bull. Looks like Mondays are trend confirmation days.

Correct, the weekend of 11-FEB-2018 did produce a rally.
However, 6 out of 8 weekends since the end of 2017 have been the start of major sell-off legs averaging 34% in declines.
The current 9th weekend has already started with a 10% decline. Statistically, this would equate to a 77% chance of a bear market underway.

[muf18]

Bitcoin Weekends

https://i.imgur.com/LO6AECY.png

I like this chart a lot. However you conveniently left out 2/11 which was followed by a green candle and a run of over $2k. I think this chart applies aptly in a bear market, but are we in a bear market? I recall during the run up from October that every Monday morning price seemed to go up.

Looking back:

Sunday 11/12 - followed by a green candle and big rally
Sunday 11/19 - followed by a green candle and consolidation
Sunday 11/26 - followed by a green candle and rally
Sunday 12/3   - followed by a green candle and big rally
Sunday 12/10 - followed by a huge green candle

Then the pattern flips to bear starting with your first date of 12/17.

So this pattern may just as well tell us tomorrow will be a big green day if we are out of the bear and back in the bull. Looks like Mondays are trend confirmation days.

Correct, the weekend of 11-FEB-2018 did produce a rally.
However, 6 out of 8 weekends since the end of 2017 have been the start of major sell-off legs averaging 34% in declines.
The current 9th weekend has already started with a 10% decline. Statistically, this would equate to a 77% chance of a bear market underway.

Were you stopped out or are you close to being be stopped?
Seems that bounce is prolonging. Strange enough, still 11.600-800 zone probably will be tested.

[Deeyoh]

His latest bet..  Pretty good when going down but umm.. He'll get tired of losing money soon and stop posting.
OPEN: 10522
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11250
RISK: 7%
REWARD: 60%

[ShittyMiner]

I am pretty certain we are going to get a second correction of more than 50% decline in BTC price within the next week.

[muf18]

SL triggered. Hmm, yep seems 11.600-800 zone is immienient.