2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[calem]

Just react to what is happening in the charts and try to make some profits or just hodl for years!

Now that is some sage advice. I shall now hodl for whenlambo.

[1714127567]

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[1714127567]

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[1714127567]

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[g-uid]

Elliott Wave is totally nonsense!
There isn't something else in the trading community what is viewed as critical as this hoky poky wave prediction crap.
I don't any EW trader who is successful over the long run or always adjusting his wave count when got proved wrong again and again.
Focus on TA and forget about market or chart predictions in general.
Just react to what is happening in the charts and try to make some profits or just hodl for years!

Thanks for that.

OP, still very much interested in what you have to share. I made a killing from some of what you have shared thus far.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Thanks for that.
OP, still very much interested in what you have to share. I made a killing from some of what you have shared thus far.

Still expecting the bear market to resume with an initial target of 4257 (Bitfinex), which would be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.

Will reassess parameters if 11788 is taken out to the upside.

Second short position ordered as follows:

    BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
    OPEN: 11253
    CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
    STOP: 11788
    RISK: 4.75%
    REWARD: 62%

Original short position, still active:

    BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
    OPEN: 10900
    CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
    STOP: 11788
    RISK: 8.15%
    REWARD: 60%

[BMG86]

So if bitcoin drops back to $1k-$2k levels, do you honestly see it ever going back to $20k and beyond? I mean this bubble is definitely different then 2013. Everyone knows what bitcoin is now, 2013 was no where near the mania that we saw in 2017. A lot more people got burnt this time around, people were mortgaging their houses for crying out loud.

A lot of people are saying $100k bitcoin, but who the hell is going to spend $100k per Bitcoin? The average Joe does not have that type of money. The market is full of speculators, not adopters.

Bitcoin has had one heck of a rise going from fractions of a cent to $20k in less then a decade. People have this thought that it will always go higher, but how many people who have that kind of money to push bitcoin beyond $20k are going to do it?

I have a hard time seeing a more hyped market then what we saw in 2017. This isn't the end for cryptos, but we may never see such a high priced bitcoin ever again. Hopefully I'm wrong, time will tell.

And another thing people don't realize is that a big part of the reason bitcoin and other crypto prices got so high was simply because of manipulation.

And bitcoin was at 20 billion in volume in December, now it's just above 6 billion. Do people honestly believe that we are going back to $20k with such low volume?  Thats a lot of money being traded. To get to $50k and $100k, imagine the type of volume needed? A lot, there's not enough interest anymore to sustain these types of prices.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

So if bitcoin drops back to $1k-$2k levels, do you honestly see it ever going back to $20k and beyond? I mean this bubble is definitely different then 2013. Everyone knows what bitcoin is now, 2013 was no where near the mania that we saw in 2017. A lot more people got burnt this time around, people were mortgaging their houses for crying out loud.

A lot of people are saying $100k bitcoin, but who the hell is going to spend $100k per Bitcoin? The average Joe does not have that type of money. The market is full of speculators, not adopters.

Bitcoin has had one heck of a rise going from fractions of a cent to $20k in less then a decade. People have this thought that it will always go higher, but how many people who have that kind of money to push bitcoin beyond $20k are going to do it?

I have a hard time seeing a more hyped market then what we saw in 2017. This isn't the end for cryptos, but we may never see such a high priced bitcoin ever again. Hopefully I'm wrong, time will tell.

And another thing people don't realize is that a big part of the reason bitcoin and other crypto prices got so high was simply because of manipulation.

And bitcoin was at 20 billion in volume in December, now it's just above 6 billion. Do people honestly believe that we are going back to $20k with such low volume?  Thats a lot of money being traded. To get to $50k and $100k, imagine the type of volume needed? A lot, there's not enough interest anymore to sustain these types of prices.

History has shown that once an asset class bubble bursts, it never recovers to become a bubble again —there are rarely any "second chances", if any at all.

Paradoxically, a volatile and rapid appreciation of a currency, is a failed currency. By definition, currencies are supposed to be recognized, accepted and stable mediums of exchange for goods and services —not just another speculative boom-bust asset class driven by speculative mania like art.

Cryptocurrencies can only be considered for adoption once corporations, governments and charities deem the asset class as stable. However, speculators and traders desire anything but stability and thrive on the volatility of 10% intraday price swings —the demographic here are experienced pre-millennial traders from other asset classes, whom quite frankly are careless in regards to the future of cryptocurrencies. So, the demographic 'invested' in cryptocurrencies are the millennials whom have a pseudo-understanding of cryptography and blockchain given their affinity to technology; but with a lack of trading experience and anti-establishment views, they simply adopt a unidirectional mentality, i.e. 'hodl', in the vein that prices will perpetually rocket to the moon.

Its a classic case of where the millennials know the price of everything, but the value of nothing. Real-world intrinsic value will be set by the 'whale' pre-millennials.

So who actually has any altruistic concern about the future of cryptocurrencies? Nobody. Hence, the bubble bursts. The ALT/BTC tokens are the epitome of manipulation and fraud.

Cryptocurrencies are a speculative side implementation of legitimate blockchain technology. Use of blockchain such as distributed ledgers for say the Asset Servicing areas of investment banking are genuine solutions. Once legitimate uses of blockchain are adopted as real-world applications, its then likely a second generation of cryptocurrencies may emerge as stable alternatives to fiat with greater adoption.

Quite possible that the likes of Google, Microsoft and Amazon lead the way with the next generation cryptocurrencies by acquiring the current players. In comparison to a mobile farm in rural China, cloud mining with say Microsoft's Azure decentralised platform with their vast, secure and robust datacentres is most technically feasible and trustworthy.

[muf18]

So if bitcoin drops back to $1k-$2k levels, do you honestly see it ever going back to $20k and beyond? I mean this bubble is definitely different then 2013. Everyone knows what bitcoin is now, 2013 was no where near the mania that we saw in 2017. A lot more people got burnt this time around, people were mortgaging their houses for crying out loud.

A lot of people are saying $100k bitcoin, but who the hell is going to spend $100k per Bitcoin? The average Joe does not have that type of money. The market is full of speculators, not adopters.

Bitcoin has had one heck of a rise going from fractions of a cent to $20k in less then a decade. People have this thought that it will always go higher, but how many people who have that kind of money to push bitcoin beyond $20k are going to do it?

I have a hard time seeing a more hyped market then what we saw in 2017. This isn't the end for cryptos, but we may never see such a high priced bitcoin ever again. Hopefully I'm wrong, time will tell.

And another thing people don't realize is that a big part of the reason bitcoin and other crypto prices got so high was simply because of manipulation.

And bitcoin was at 20 billion in volume in December, now it's just above 6 billion. Do people honestly believe that we are going back to $20k with such low volume?  Thats a lot of money being traded. To get to $50k and $100k, imagine the type of volume needed? A lot, there's not enough interest anymore to sustain these types of prices.

I was saying, that exuberant market behavior, and irrationality cant last much longer. Market was completely manipulated, and big players has withdrawn their money, so now we are running low on bots and some smaller players speculators, and how long will this be, when interest in buying more crypto is now down, trends down, we should be already lower (some people still manipulate and break through resistances...).
Sanity to the market must be brought. A lot of crap icos must go down to 0.0001.

[drays]

Its funny how even slightest price drop activates this thread and gives it the new breath

A lot of people are saying $100k bitcoin, but who the hell is going to spend $100k per Bitcoin? The average Joe does not have that type of money. The market is full of speculators, not adopters.

I don't see how you can be serious saying that. The average Joe does not need to spend 100K to buy a Bitcoin. Bitcoin can be bought in fractions, I suppose you should now that, right? Bitcoin supply is limited, so there will never be enough Bitcoins for every average Joe - but he can easily afford a fraction of that - it should be completely enough.

I have a hard time seeing a more hyped market then what we saw in 2017. This isn't the end for cryptos, but we may never see such a high priced bitcoin ever again. Hopefully I'm wrong, time will tell.

The next time it will not be the hype, but the real thing - adoption, usage and appreciation.

And another thing people don't realize is that a big part of the reason bitcoin and other crypto prices got so high was simply because of manipulation.

Yes, absolutely. Bitcoin distribution is still is too concentrated, so heavy manipulation is a given. On a different note, which currency is not manipulated to big extent?

And bitcoin was at 20 billion in volume in December, now it's just above 6 billion. Do people honestly believe that we are going back to $20k with such low volume?  Thats a lot of money being traded. To get to $50k and $100k, imagine the type of volume needed? A lot, there's not enough interest anymore to sustain these types of prices.

Volume is driven by interest, not the opposite. When interest is back, the volume will follow.

[drays]

Cryptocurrencies can only be considered for adoption once corporations, governments and charities deem the asset class as stable. However, speculators and traders desire anything but stability and thrive on the volatility of 10% intraday price swings —the demographic here are experienced pre-millennial traders from other asset classes, whom quite frankly are careless in regards to the future of cryptocurrencies. So, the demographic 'invested' in cryptocurrencies are the millennials whom have a pseudo-understanding of cryptography and blockchain given their affinity to technology; but with a lack of trading experience and anti-establishment views, they simply adopt a unidirectional mentality, i.e. 'hodl', in the vein that prices will perpetually rocket to the moon.

I am also not excited about millenials and their herd mentality (all those facebook/google/corporations alluring them due to the lack of critical thinking, and due to false 'positive thinking' propaganda).
But don't forget that millenials are the future. They are young, and they are going to inherit the world, whether you like it or not. And Bitcoin is their money, the one they grow with, and the one they support. Doesn't this tell you something?

Its a classic case of where the millennials know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.

Don't turn it around, in fact that expression refers more to you and the traders like yourself, whether you are millenials or not.

So who actually has any altruistic concern about the future of cryptocurrencies? Nobody. Hence, the bubble bursts. The ALT/BTC tokens are the epitome of manipulation and fraud.

What you tell above says more about yourself and the environment you are living in. I am sorry for you if you indeed don't have people around you, who have altruistic concern about the future of cryptocurrencies.... Whose people exist, I assure you, and fortunately I have them around.

Cryptocurrencies are a speculative side implementation of legitimate blockchain technology. Use of blockchain such as distributed ledgers for say the Asset Servicing areas of investment banking are genuine solutions. Once legitimate uses of blockchain are adopted as real-world applications, its then likely a second generation of cryptocurrencies may emerge as stable alternatives to fiat with greater adoption.

Quite possible that the likes of Google, Microsoft and Amazon lead the way with the next generation cryptocurrencies by acquiring the current players. In comparison to a mobile farm in rural China, cloud mining with say Microsoft's Azure decentralised platform with their vast, secure and robust datacentres is most technically feasible and trustworthy.

Yes, the blockchain tech has its own merit, and it could/will be developed aside of Bitcoin too.
But you intentionally 'forget' about one extremely important quality of Bitcoin, which no cryptocurrency is going to have - the real decentralization, at least the hope of having one. This is the first and only decentralized asset humanity ever created. I hope people will not lose their chance by killing this thing and falling back to the hands of the corporations which are going to own and abuse people. I know people like you hate decentralization, and hate the idea of freedom in general, that is the real reason you are so eagerly waiting for the complete crash of this thing. I now see you don't just play this market, you really hate the Bitcoin's concept and, unlike muf18 and some others here, you want it to crash. Well, what I can say. You are not the only hater - there are lots of them among the ones who found their way of exploiting the existing useless and corrupt financial system based on robbery and inflated pseudo-money. We'll see who wins at the end.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

... I know people like you hate decentralization, and hate the idea of freedom in general, that is the real reason you are so eagerly waiting for the complete crash of this thing. I now see you don't just play this market, you really hate the Bitcoin's concept and, unlike muf18 and some others here, you want it to crash. Well, what I can say. You are not the only hater - there are lots of them among the ones who found their way of exploiting the existing useless and corrupt financial system based on robbery and inflated pseudo-money. We'll see who wins at the end.

False accusation! Personally a technologist at heart, and a person whom values privacy and progress, would like to see decentralized systems and blockchain technology to flourish —and it will, but now is not its time. A trader or investor, must not become attached to any particular asset class be it art, wine, stocks, crypto, classic cars, etc —especially during times of mania. Trade with the flow, be it bull or bear market, don't fight the trend. This thread has taken both long and short positions, but for now the overall analysis suggests an imminent resumption of the bear market.

[g-uid]

... I know people like you hate decentralization, and hate the idea of freedom in general, that is the real reason you are so eagerly waiting for the complete crash of this thing. I now see you don't just play this market, you really hate the Bitcoin's concept and, unlike muf18 and some others here, you want it to crash. Well, what I can say. You are not the only hater - there are lots of them among the ones who found their way of exploiting the existing useless and corrupt financial system based on robbery and inflated pseudo-money. We'll see who wins at the end.

False accusation! Personally a technologist at heart, and a person whom values privacy and progress, would like to see decentralized systems and blockchain technology to flourish —and it will, but now is not its time. A trader or investor, must not become attached to any particular asset class be it art, wine, stocks, crypto, classic cars, etc —especially during times of mania. Trade with the flow, be it bull or bear market, don't fight the trend. This thread has taken both long and short positions, but for now the overall analysis suggests an imminent resumption of the bear market.

Agreed. Ignore this nonsense OP. I feel the same way. A big believer this side but trends are what they are and if you are an investor then you can't afford to hide behind a false curtain.

[drays]

... I know people like you hate decentralization, and hate the idea of freedom in general, that is the real reason you are so eagerly waiting for the complete crash of this thing. I now see you don't just play this market, you really hate the Bitcoin's concept and, unlike muf18 and some others here, you want it to crash. Well, what I can say. You are not the only hater - there are lots of them among the ones who found their way of exploiting the existing useless and corrupt financial system based on robbery and inflated pseudo-money. We'll see who wins at the end.

False accusation! Personally a technologist at heart, and a person whom values privacy and progress, would like to see decentralized systems and blockchain technology to flourish —and it will, but now is not its time. A trader or investor, must not become attached to any particular asset class be it art, wine, stocks, crypto, classic cars, etc —especially during times of mania. Trade with the flow, be it bull or bear market, don't fight the trend. This thread has taken both long and short positions, but for now the overall analysis suggests an imminent resumption of the bear market.

False accusation? Nope. I don't tell you and your fans (like g-uid who posted above) are not technologists somewhere deep at heart. What I tell - you do not seem to value the decentralization and independence it provides. Otherwise you would never write this:

...Once legitimate uses of blockchain are adopted as real-world applications, its then likely a second generation of cryptocurrencies may emerge as stable alternatives to fiat with greater adoption. Quite possible that the likes of Google, Microsoft and Amazon lead the way with the next generation cryptocurrencies by acquiring the current players. In comparison to a mobile farm in rural China, cloud mining with say Microsoft's Azure decentralised platform with their vast, secure and robust datacentres is most technically feasible and trustworthy.

"trustworthy"!??? - really? You welcome the big corporations, and they seem 'trustworthy' to you, so are the governments, huh?

Anything created and lead by likes of Google, Microsoft and Amazon will never be decentralized. It could be very profitable, very advanced, but will make no good to society. That will be just a corporate cryptocurrency, giving power only to the creator. This is nothing like what Bitcoin has to offer. Bitcoin is not about technology anymore, it is about independence and widely distributed power, with no central authority(ies) who can do things at their will. Thats why 'next generation cryptocurrencies cannot replace Bitcoin - even if they are technologically more advanced, they will lack the spirit. Its a pity many people do not understand this, and they only see the technological part of cryptocurrency phenomenon, forgetting about the main humanitarian value of Bitcoin, which no cryptocurrency will ever replace. My English is too limited to explain this, sorry.

Agreed. Ignore this nonsense OP. I feel the same way. A big believer this side but trends are what they are and if you are an investor then you can't afford to hide behind a false curtain.

Nonsence is just inside your head. "Big believer" in what?
Trends are what they are, and nobody hides behind a curtain here. If all your want is to trade with the trend and make money, thats fine, just don't call yourself a believer or even an investor - you are a speculator and trader, but not a believer by any means.

[g-uid]

... I know people like you hate decentralization, and hate the idea of freedom in general, that is the real reason you are so eagerly waiting for the complete crash of this thing. I now see you don't just play this market, you really hate the Bitcoin's concept and, unlike muf18 and some others here, you want it to crash. Well, what I can say. You are not the only hater - there are lots of them among the ones who found their way of exploiting the existing useless and corrupt financial system based on robbery and inflated pseudo-money. We'll see who wins at the end.

False accusation! Personally a technologist at heart, and a person whom values privacy and progress, would like to see decentralized systems and blockchain technology to flourish —and it will, but now is not its time. A trader or investor, must not become attached to any particular asset class be it art, wine, stocks, crypto, classic cars, etc —especially during times of mania. Trade with the flow, be it bull or bear market, don't fight the trend. This thread has taken both long and short positions, but for now the overall analysis suggests an imminent resumption of the bear market.

False accusation? I don't tell you and your fans (like g-uid who posted above) are not technologists somewhere deep at heart. What I tell - you do not seem to value the decentralization and independence it provides. Otherwise you would never write this: "...Once legitimate uses of blockchain are adopted as real-world applications, its then likely a second generation of cryptocurrencies may emerge as stable alternatives to fiat with greater adoption. Quite possible that the likes of Google, Microsoft and Amazon lead the way with the next generation cryptocurrencies by acquiring the current players. In comparison to a mobile farm in rural China, cloud mining with say Microsoft's Azure decentralised platform with their vast, secure and robust datacentres is most technically feasible and trustworthy."

"trustworthy"!??? - really? The big corporations are 'trustworthy' to you, so are the governments, huh?

Anything created and lead by likes of Google, Microsoft and Amazon will never be decentralized. That will be just a corporate cryptocurrency, giving power only to the creator. This is nothing like what Bitcoin has to offer. Bitcoin is not about technology anymore, it is about independence and widely distributed power, with no central authority(ies) who can do things at their will. Thats why 'next generation cryptocurrencies cannot replace Bitcoin - even if they are technologically more advanced, they will lack the spirit. Its a pity many people do not understand this, and they only see the technological part of cryptocurrency phenomenon, forgetting about the main humanitarian value of Bitcoin, which no cryptocurrency will ever replace. My English is too limited to explain this, sorry.

Agreed. Ignore this nonsense OP. I feel the same way. A big believer this side but trends are what they are and if you are an investor then you can't afford to hide behind a false curtain.

Nonsence is just inside your head. "Big believer" in what?
Trends are what they are, and nobody hides behind a curtain here. If all your want is to trade with the trend and make money, thats fine, just don't call yourself a believer or even an investor - you are a speculator and trader, but not a believer by any means.

Got it, thanks for your input Drays. Moving on..

[drays]

Got it, thanks for your input Drays. Moving on..

Yeah, why all this talk..? What is it all about..?  

OP, just continue with your predictions, so g-uid could follow you and become rich! Thats the important part.

[jbreher]

History has shown that once an asset class bubble bursts, it never recovers to become a bubble again —there are rarely any "second chances", if any at all.

History has shown that the crypto asset class undergoes bubble/burst, over and over again, fractally, with each subsequent cycle an order of magnitude or so larger than the last.

[muf18]

History has shown that once an asset class bubble bursts, it never recovers to become a bubble again —there are rarely any "second chances", if any at all.

History has shown that the crypto asset class undergoes bubble/burst, over and over again, fractally, with each subsequent cycle an order of magnitude or so larger than the last.

We must remember this bubble was global, and it was actually "second chance" for Bitcoin global bubble.
It was first chance for a lot of alts, so maybe, they will get somewhere later in coming years, another bubble.
But this bubble to deflate have still a lot of room, to go down.

I really don't get it, people must get x10-x100, or even x1000 gains, because they are unsatysfied with x2, or 50% gain a year (so much in normal securities).
Because of this greed, we see depressed market for the rest of the year.

[drays]

Still in short position?

Yes...

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%

I have to give OP credit where its due. The STOP at 11788 was nearly executed, but you stayed strong.
You have balls and you are a true believer in your views - more of a strategic planner, who does not change his views easily and stays solid.
This deserves some respect, regardless of anything.

[calem]

Personally a technologist at heart, and a person whom values privacy and progress, would like to see decentralized systems and blockchain technology to flourish —and it will, but now is not its time. A trader or investor, must not become attached to any particular asset class be it art, wine, stocks, crypto, classic cars, etc —especially during times of mania.

Elliott Wave is totally nonsense!
There isn't something else in the trading community what is viewed as critical as this hoky poky wave prediction crap.
I don't any EW trader who is successful over the long run or always adjusting his wave count when got proved wrong again and again.
Focus on TA and forget about market or chart predictions in general.
Just react to what is happening in the charts and try to make some profits or just hodl for years!

Suppressing bad ideas can be as dangerous as the bad ideas themselves.

Better ideas must be allowed to emerge through an evolutionary process of creation, mutation, and critical selection.

We all must, protect the free exchange of ideas, the freedom to criticise, and the liberty to experiment.

Social order must be characterised by voluntary relationships and exchanges.

Support social orders that foster freedom of communication, freedom of action, experimentation, innovation, questioning, and learning.

Avoid unnecessary hierarchy and favor the rule of math and decentralisation of power and responsibility.

[nightfury]

FUDs everywhere but i don't think it will happen because bitcoin is already mainstream. The demand of people for bitcoin and other cryptos are now higher than before since more people are also aware about bitcoin's value, usage and success.

[g-uid]

Personally a technologist at heart, and a person whom values privacy and progress, would like to see decentralized systems and blockchain technology to flourish —and it will, but now is not its time. A trader or investor, must not become attached to any particular asset class be it art, wine, stocks, crypto, classic cars, etc —especially during times of mania.

Elliott Wave is totally nonsense!
There isn't something else in the trading community what is viewed as critical as this hoky poky wave prediction crap.
I don't any EW trader who is successful over the long run or always adjusting his wave count when got proved wrong again and again.
Focus on TA and forget about market or chart predictions in general.
Just react to what is happening in the charts and try to make some profits or just hodl for years!

Suppressing bad ideas can be as dangerous as the bad ideas themselves.

Better ideas must be allowed to emerge through an evolutionary process of creation, mutation, and critical selection.

We all must, protect the free exchange of ideas, the freedom to criticise, and the liberty to experiment.

Social order must be characterised by voluntary relationships and exchanges.

Support social orders that foster freedom of communication, freedom of action, experimentation, innovation, questioning, and learning.

Avoid unnecessary hierarchy and favor the rule of math and decentralisation of power and responsibility.

Well said Calem, it's tangential to this thread but I can't help but wonder what kind of career has your interest.

[calem]

Well said Calem, it's tangential to this thread but I can't help but wonder what kind of career has your interest.

Not really sure if I'm the career type...