2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[fabiorem]

Bitcoin can be perfectly successful as a "niche currency". Personally, I don't think it will ever get more than 10% of the world population as users, and that would be a huge success. I personally would like it to be valued at $10K or more and used by tens or hundreds of millions. But it would work perfectly if it is used only for certain purposes like remittances and e-commerce and valued at $100 USD.

Actually 10k is a niche price, as there is only 0.5% of the world population holding and trading it.

The price for a massive adoption, where it would be a success (in the way you put it), would be at least 100k.

[1713557076]

1713557076

[Syke]

—If the costs of mining begin to outweigh, then Bitcoin could cease to exist along with the current generation of other cryptocurrencies.

No, if mining costs outweigh, then miners decrease capacity and the difficulty decreases.

[muf18]

BTC don't need to be at 10K, to be appreciated, it can be as well at 100USD, or 10USD.

You are mistaken here. There are 7 billion people in the world now, and only less than 21 million Bitcoins.
It means we have more than 333 persons per one Bitcoin.

It could cost as low as 10-100 USD only either if people don't know about it, or if they don't want to have it. Years ago it was 10-100 USD, because not many people knew about it; but now, when a big percentage of world population is made aware of its existence, having such price would mean complete failure, not appreciation.

If Bitcoin is to be really appreciated and used (for any purpose - being it currency or value storage, or anything else), those 333 persons would compete with each other to get that 1 Bitcoin. How much 333 average people could have to spend on something they need and appreciate? I am personally not ready to answer that question right now, but some demographic research would help here. In any case - way more than 10-100 of vapourware printed by some country to cover its growing needs and enormous debts.

Then you have gold.
Why piece of software should be used and have a purpose of gold?
Bitcoin was created in 2009, gold have hundreds of years being a real tangible asset, accumulated by central banks, and wealthy entities.
Also, it's factual wrong - people competing and fighting for Bitcoin are determined to be losers - because early-adopters have accumulated 40% of it, and can steer the market how they like.
It's completely wrong, and actually, makes me wonder how much people really use as it purpose, and who is just holding/speculating (99% imo).

And having it as a global currency, would be a complete disaster actually - those 1000 entities, would be dominating world.
It would be even worse than now, with concentration of a capital.

And yes, I'm a secret FBI/CIA/NSA/FSB double agent, they just hired me here, to spread "FUD", so we, our best friends - greedy goldman bankers, and Russia associated banks will take over Bitcoin.
It's our master plan, how did you see through it?

[d5000]

Actually 10k is a niche price, as there is only 0.5% of the world population holding and trading it.

The price for a massive adoption, where it would be a success (in the way you put it), would be at least 100k.

No. This is a myth I hear much too often.

We have a 10K Bitcoin (OK, 8K) because people speculate on future adoption. It isn't the "fair price" for a currency used only by some 20-50 million people.

The 20K Bitcoin of mid-December had a "market cap" of 320 billion USD. This is not a low figure: it's half the value of a company like Facebook or Apple whose products are used by billions (and all cryptocurrencies together had a market cap above that number).

The US dollar has a M1 supply of about 3,5 trillion. This was only 10 times Bitcoin's market cap at its ATH. The US dollar is, by far, the world's most used currency and has probably millions of transactions per second, while Bitcoin has 5-7 (at most, at this moment we only have about ~2 tps).

Bitcoin's price would be much lower if there was no speculation on future usage. I consider speculation on future usage a completely legitimate strategy, because Bitcoin has an enormous potential. But it's false that it wouldn't work as a niche currency at $100 a coin.

[muf18]

Apart from that it's even not possible for now to use it, as a global medium of transmission (low tx count), and another this is that broken things like IOTA are currently at top10 place, with more than 3B$ cap.
Some altcoins look more prepared to facilitate, as a "world currency" in terms of tx/s, but even them can't do it as of now, because their networks are too fragile.
So whole show of cryptocurrencies is not stopping activity of pump and dumping it, with a lot of unnatural activity.
Surprisingly, when attention was lower, BTC was used more for buying, purchases, volatility was lower, and was somehow more used for it's purpose.

But I'm arguing, about something, that lost it's purpose long time ago, and is mainly used as a speculative vehicle, so why I even say that? Cryptocurrencies from a form of money, have translated into new asset classes, which is hoarded by a few rich entities, and rest is fighting for a small supply available in the free float. So yeah...

[drays]

Bitcoin can be perfectly successful as a "niche currency".

Sorry, with all the due respect, I don't get what you mean. Which kind of "niche usage"? Of course, technically Bitcoin can work perfectly as a niche currency. But I just don't see which kind of niche that could be. Some altcoins are aiming to fill some niche, however Bitcoin was never meant to be a niche solution. It could either become global currency, or global value storage, or global anything - the key word is global here. Why and how Bitcoin could limit itself to a niche? Any scenario (please consider real world scenarios based on the current state of it)?

In an alternative scenario, speculators could sell almost anything, anarchists would again become the dominant user group, the price would be much lower, and that would be fine too.

I suppose real anarchists would rather move to Anon-type coins like Dash, Monero or Zcash. I would not count on them alone. Fortunately, speculators and anarchists are not the only users of Bitcoin.

And the current "everybody wants to have it" frenzy is only due to Bitcoin's growth. If the price evolution becomes flatter (e.g. like a fiat currency) because of higher adoption and less volatility, there would be less incentive to buy Bitcoin to make profit.

Right, the frenzy is due to the growth. But if price evolution becomes flatter, there still be a speculative reason to hold Bitcoin. The same as with gold - the gold price currently is high due to speculators buying and keeping it - the real value of gold as a metal is much lower. However 'everybody wants to have it", because it is considered to be rare and more secure than USD. The same could be with BTC if the price evolution becomes flatter.

Bitcoin's price would be much lower if there was no speculation on future usage. I consider speculation on future usage a completely legitimate strategy, because Bitcoin has an enormous potential. But it's false that it wouldn't work as a niche currency at $100 a coin.

Yes, basically speculation is the key element in the value on almost any asset, including the ones like gold/silver etc. As to the part I highlighted in bold - please explain, honestly, I still do not see any niche usage scenario for Bitcoin - only global ones are viable in my view.

[drays]

Then you have gold.
Why piece of software should be used and have a purpose of gold?
Bitcoin was created in 2009, gold have hundreds of years being a real tangible asset, accumulated by central banks, and wealthy entities.

Because Bitcoin is much more convenient to use/store/transport than gold. Infinitely more convenient, actually. "Software piece"? Its the age of software, its the way world is moving along - virtual goods are becoming much more valuable, compared to real goods. People who produce real tangible goods, are earning much less than the ones who produce virtual ones. Is it good or bad - that's another question, and is a too philosophical topic to discuss here.

Also, it's factual wrong - people competing and fighting for Bitcoin are determined to be losers - because early-adopters have accumulated 40% of it, and can steer the market how they like.
It's completely wrong, and actually, makes me wonder how much people really use as it purpose, and who is just holding/speculating (99% imo).

And having it as a global currency, would be a complete disaster actually - those 1000 entities, would be dominating world.
It would be even worse than now, with concentration of a capital.

That's a good point. Not sure what to tell - I hope the distribution will become better over time. In fact, all those price surges help distribution, as many initial holders are selling. And I suspect in reality things are not that bad - I really doubt there are still considerable number of early adopters holding all their coins - I mean the ones who bought/mined when it was $1-10. There were so much temptation to sell it during all those price spikes and downturns, I would assume most of them have sold the biggest part if their initial stash.

And yes, I'm a secret FBI/CIA/NSA/FSB double agent, they just hired me here, to spread "FUD", so we, our best friends - greedy goldman bankers, and Russia associated banks will take over Bitcoin.
It's our master plan, how did you see through it?

Thanks for those revelations. I am just not sure why you decided to made them public in reply to my posts, as I was not implying anything like that personally. You are sounding much more like a disappointed [former]idealist, than FBI double agent.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Equinox
https://redd.it/85m5tr

Bitcoin has declined almost 40% from the 11700 (Bitfinex) high set on 05-MAR-2018, to the low of 7240 set on 18-MAR-2018.

The first leg of the decline (i.e. from 11700 to 8342) was a quick steep 3-day sell-off; whilst the second leg of the decline (i.e. from 9900 to 7240) formed what appears to be a 6-day “Falling Wedge” pattern. Interesting to note, the second leg of the decline is precisely a 0.786% Fibonacci relationship to the first leg —wonderous phinance!

With price/RSI positive divergence on multiple hour timeframes, there appears enough waves to suggest an interim bottom is in place; and the expectation suggests choppy sideways price action for perhaps during the course of a week.

The decline from 11700 to 7240 may retrace between a Fibonacci 38.2% (i.e. 8944) to 50% (i.e. 9470), with the average being at 9207. Thereafter, a new bout of selling is expected to resume quite rapidly targeting the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market at 4257.

Esoteric trivia: 20-MAR-2018 marks the equinox where the Earth is in ‘balance’ with equal length of day & night everywhere —quite the sentiment of cryptocurrencies which are precariously balancing on a tightrope! Grizzly bears and black bears also awaken from hibernation at the start of Spring in the northern hemisphere!

Analysis is purely guesswork with speculative Elliott Wave model indicative of price & structure, not time; as follows:

[drays]

Doesn't 3 and 4 appear unnaturally close to each other on the graph above..? What if what you call 5 is in fact 3, and the current decline is the 4, with 5 just waiting to happen?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Doesn't 3 and 4 appear unnaturally close to each other on the graph above..? What if what you call 5 is in fact 3, and the current decline is the 4, with 5 just waiting to happen?

Price and structure precede time in Elliott Wave analysis.
4th waves normally retrace to about the previous degree's 4th wave; so in the last chart above, any further drop beyond 13,600 was a warning of a trend reversal.

[chenbo*)]

FUD's or not, warnings like these are actually helpful as it halts people on their tracks and make them think on whether they've been wise in their investments. It's their money they're playing with but I do hope that people play it smart and invest with discipline. FUD's are very natural in risky markets like currency speculation and I surely hope that it's sobering effect on people will bring them a lot of good in the end. Let us not be mindless drones, seduced by the sweet melodies of the piper's pipe. Think, research and ponder before you act.

[muf18]

Yes. As I said it should be at least 10-20 years of the normal "full" emission rate like 50BTC per block, to make it more of a currency, as less of a "early-adopters get-in and hold".

Then inflation could drop step by step.

But if we would like to have real currency, emission should always be at the same rate, and should be indefinately, to not encourage excessive hoarding of it.

[drays]

Yes. As I said it should be at least 10-20 years of the normal "full" emission rate like 50BTC per block, to make it more of a currency, as less of a "early-adopters get-in and hold".

Then inflation could drop step by step.

Then again, some would tell 10-20 years are not enough, and should have been 50-100 years
In fact, things nowadays are moving increasingly fast - what normally needed 100 years, now takes 5-10 years. Its not only crypto. Look at the pace of action in the movies filmed last years, and compare to what was there just 50 years ago. Look at the agile development circles now and compare them to 'waterfall' models from just 10-20 years ago. Try to listen to 200 year old dance music - you may fall asleep. The time is going crazy - increasingly fast. So... few years distribution is not that bad, taken all this into account

Apart of this, do you have any stats regarding to how many early adopters are still keeping their coins? I personally don't know anyone who did. Most of early miners sold long ago - as only hardcore believers could resist the temptation to sell for 10x of what they paid. Any real stats would be helpful.

[muf18]

40% is probably held (because we can't never know for sure), by 1000 entities.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-08/the-bitcoin-whales-1-000-people-who-own-40-percent-of-the-market

Apart from that most of altcoins have so centralized distrubution, that Top10-Top50 address, normally hold 60-80% of it (and that's not only exchanges).

Small part of it is traded on exchanges. That's the problem, people are trying to tell, it was meant to be currency, but it's behaving like ultra-volatile stock (as others altcoins), hold by a few (just like in stocks).

If that was a purpose, than great - we just created another speculation vehicle, without meaningful purpose or need.

I see innovation in smart assets, and smart contracts, building on top of network various apps, but it's still so in infancy, that people/teams are just scrapping and copying projects, that are in normal internet (steemit, d.tube, omisego etc. - everything of that is copied from "centralized" internet into "decentralized" network - in reality not so much, if there are only a few dominating pools in BTC or ETH).

Or building something, that doesn't even have sense, as of now - IoT? It's not 2030...

Equally distrubuted peer-to-peer electronic cash, would be a real innovation and solution.

What we have now is bunch of VCs and market manipulators, draining the market from cash, by their orchestrated pumps and dumps, and pre-ICO, private sale, bullshit.

[jbreher]

40% is probably held (because we can't never know really), by 1000 entities.

So if 'we can't never know really', upon what are you basing your claims?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2018 Crypto Crash (Elliott Wave): Anatomy of the Equinox Ebb

Since the Equinox occurred on 21-MAR-2018, the Bitcoin market has declined 27% thus far, as of Good Friday 05:30UTC.

Declines of such magnitude have been tracked as Minor degree Elliott Waves; and the following are previous such examples which have occurred so far, since the crypto bear market began on 17-DEC-2017:

21% — 06-JAN-2018 to 11-JAN-2018
38% — 13-JAN-2018 to 17-JAN-2018
24% — 20-JAN-2018 to 23-JAN-2018
50% — 28-JAN-2018 to 06-FEB-2018
28% — 05-MAR-2018 to 09-MAR-2018
26% — 12-MAR-2018 to 18-MAR-2018

Given the aforementioned wave percentages, it suggests the decline of Minor degree waves in the Bitcoin bear market are approx 32% on average. Therefore, another 10%-15% decline may be expected.

A 32% decline from the highs of 21-MAR-2018, arrives to the low set on 06-FEB-2018.

The chart below identifies the waves, and the Fibonacci extensions of the waves, thus far since the decline began on 21-MAR-2018. The areas of greatest Fibonacci confluences occur nearby the 06-FEB-2018 low.

Hence, expecting the current decline to either overshoot or undershoot the 06-FEB-2018 low by around ±$200; thereby creating an overall Double Bottom pattern.

Thereafter, the entire decline starting from 21-MAR-2018 ought to bounce approx 20% to 7100, which represents a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

The following BTC/USD (Coinbase) chart illustrates the Fibonacci wave extensions thus far (i.e. potential levels of support); speculative guesswork analysis:

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Anatomy of the Easter Ebb: Triple-Zigzag?

[Tigorss]

We expect the same thing with Bitcoin. The blockchain technology behind it and other cryptocurrencies has great potential. But investors who are not ready, unaware of the big picture, will see - and have seen - their position is crushed.

[drays]

Anatomy of the Easter Ebb: Triple-Zigzag?

Fall to 5200? Maybe. My own projections based on modified 2013-2014 graph also indicate fall to around 5200 in a week or two max, with a following bounce to around 8000-8600, and a further fall down to 3-4k later during April-May.

Not telling it will necessarily do that way (most probably not), but I am really interested to see if those projections are any true, as they were pretty much exact to the point, and if things continue going according them, the bear market will be rather short, and things will be good long-term. We'll see...
This game is fun to watch, but with calm eyes only.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Moon Short — The only crypto heading to the Moon is BTCUSDSHORTS

Short interest in Bitcoin has now broken above the highs of Oct 2017, and is currently marking new all-time highs.

Oct/Nov 2017 is when the third Elliott Wave ended, and fourth wave pullback began in Bitcoin.

Shortly afterwards, Bitcoin began its final fifth wave, where price exponentially accelerated in a parabolic curve to commence the 'mania' phase from $5400 to $19891.

The 'mania' phase is typically when public interest takes hold driven by media attention, enthusiasm, greed and delusion.

Since Jan 2018, the parabolic price curve has collapsed and retraced 95% of the fifth wave 'mania' phase.

With short interest in Bitcoin now breaking the highs of Oct 2017, it appears the public are now beginning to capitulate and offloading HODL positions driven by margin calls; and the reality of the bubble bursting is only now being grasped as the 'blow-off' phase gains momentum.