2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[figmentofmyass]

Only second and third option is now in play.
I would be keen onto second, but third is also possible, with this kind of major pumping we have seen now (public isn't buying it - all social trends, with keyword of: Bitcoin, blockchain, cryptocurrency, are down to may/october levels of 2017), so what we are seeing now is probably hedge funds major pump, and thus it would completely agree with 5 min huge candles making up moves + 200-500USD.

They probably want to get out of some positions, thus this major pumping.
We have achieved 70% of volume from January, but there don't seem to be major people's buying it.

But I can be wrong. That's my opinion which I'm entitled to.

i think this is just old money sloshing around. old dip buyers finally exhausted supply, but it's probably just an intermediate bounce that will be sold into.

the fractals i'm mainly watching for are mid-2013 and early 2014. both call for a 60-80% retrace before the downtrend continues.

but the difference between mid-2013 and 2014 is this: the second leg down in 2013 ended on a higher low. the parallel would be never dropping below $6000 again. i can't rule that out yet.....

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[muf18]

Well I prefer 2014, cause it had more volume already then 2013 I think so it's more preffarable to see 2014 fractals and it's almost on par with now movement, so 10.6 up to 11.7K bounce should occur before, recourring bear market, and slow total collapse of price into abyss of 3200-3500USD territory.

But yeah they are frickin pumping it like hell. So much lol.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Symmetrical Triangle
https://redd.it/8ev2ki

Since the 6425 (Bitfinex) low set on 01-APR-2018, the Bitcoin market has rallied 50% to retrace a Fibonacci 61.8% of the downtrend wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Prior to the rally, the downtrend wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 came within 95% of the low set on 06-FEB-2018, but failed to exceed it.

It appears converging price action in the Bitcoin market is undergoing a large Symmetrical Triangle formation since the 06-FEB-2018 low.

In regards to the internals of Symmetrical Triangle formation:

—wave-a: Rallied 95% from the 06-FEB to 05-MAR, retracing a 50% Fibonacci of the downtrend wave that began on 06-JAN.

—wave-b: Declined 45% from 05-MAR to 01-APR, retracing a 95% of wave-a.

—wave-c: Rallied 50% from 01-APR to 25-APR, retracing a Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-b at 9767 and thus far appears complete.
If wave-c subdivides, additional upside targets as follows:
1. @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
2. @10571: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of wave-b.
However, should wave-c be complete, it would suggest the entire Symmetrical Triangle forms beneath the psychological 10,000 level.

There are two further waves required to complete the Symmetrical Triangle pattern. Given the converging price action trendlines of the triangle, the following are projections for the two outstanding legs:

—wave-d: Currently underway since 25-APR. Expected to decline and retrace at least a Fibonacci 78.6% of wave-c towards 7140. Converging trendlines of the Symmetrical Triangle would suggest a 30% decline to approx 6750.

—wave-e: The final leg of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern, and the shortest. Expected to retrace between a Fibonacci 61.8% to 78.6% of wave-d, rallying approx 35% towards 8590 to 9100.

The converging trendlines suggest the Symmetrical Triangle pattern ought to complete by mid-May to early-Jun. At which point, the bear market is expected to resume towards 4257 which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.

Short trade:

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 9187
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 9768
RISK: 6.4 %
REWARD: 56%

Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time, as follows:

[bonker]

Trading technicals when the market is driven by fundamentals is a fast way to get fucked.

[muf18]

Trading technicals when the market is driven by fundamentals is a fast way to get fucked.

Loool. What fundamentals? Hahaha

[bonker]

Trading technicals when the market is driven by fundamentals is a fast way to get fucked.

Loool. What fundamentals? Hahaha

Like the continuing global adoption of blockchain and the present wild innovation, you clueless, knuckledragging fucknut

[muf18]

Trading technicals when the market is driven by fundamentals is a fast way to get fucked.

Loool. What fundamentals? Hahaha

Like the continuing global adoption of blockchain and the present wild innovation, you clueless, knuckledragging fucknut

What it's got to cryptocurrencies the derivative form of speculative assets based on blockchain ?

Speculative assets aren't what drive or not drive adoption. They can get attention, because of spikes in value, but it's not what drives it. Blockchain is a distrubuted database something known for a whole lot more time then you can think, just it's now a nice buzzword.
And it has very limited uses, because of decentralization and thus being slow, unless you centralize it and then you have normal database with buzz "blockchain", like with EOS, ripple or NEO.

Yeah, go on, we need more swears, until you got banned.

[bonker]

"What it's got to cryptocurrencies the derivative form of speculative assets based on blockchain ?"

Can I use this quote? I would like to impress women at the disco

[muf18]

Use whatever you want

@op - well we are 400 till stop and again this trade was going nice, until today's pumps. Any remarks, changing strategy or sticking to the plan?

[penig]

Trading technicals when the market is driven by fundamentals is a fast way to get fucked.

Loool. What fundamentals? Hahaha

Like the continuing global adoption of blockchain and the present wild innovation, you clueless, knuckledragging fucknut

Do you have any serious metrics on adoption, cashflows, etc? 

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Use whatever you want

@op - well we are 400 till stop and again this trade was going nice, until today's pumps. Any remarks, changing strategy or sticking to the plan?

Sticking to the plan. If however, 9767 (Bitfinex) is taken out, then following upside targets in play:

—wave-c: Rallied 50% from 01-APR to 25-APR, retracing a Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-b at 9767 and thus far appears complete.
If wave-c subdivides, additional upside targets as follows:
1. @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
2. @10571: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of wave-b.
However, should wave-c be complete, it would suggest the entire Symmetrical Triangle forms beneath the psychological 10,000 level.

[CookieFactory]

So...the elephant in the thread is your primary EW count could be wrong.

Instead of the Dec 2017 peak being the end of Wave 5, it was actually the end of Wave 3. Since Wave 2 was sharp, the correction down to 6K could very well be interpreted as a long, drawn-out Wave 4 instead of your A-B-C bear market.

Your current primary count requires BTC to ultimately drop to 3-4K as only that would invalidate the Wave 4 proposal (i.e. Wave 4 overlaps with Wave 1). Otherwise, there are many signs the Wave 4 interpretation is correct, and thus we are now in the beginning stages of Wave 5.

[muf18]

Use whatever you want

@op - well we are 400 till stop and again this trade was going nice, until today's pumps. Any remarks, changing strategy or sticking to the plan?

Sticking to the plan. If however, 9767 (Bitfinex) is taken out, then following upside targets in play:

—wave-c: Rallied 50% from 01-APR to 25-APR, retracing a Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-b at 9767 and thus far appears complete.
If wave-c subdivides, additional upside targets as follows:
1. @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
2. @10571: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of wave-b.
However, should wave-c be complete, it would suggest the entire Symmetrical Triangle forms beneath the psychological 10,000 level.

For now everything seems to be going still ok, but you were quite close to your SL.
I'm very berish on whole crypto market, and imo what we are seeing is a big pump of big hedge funds, to just wipe out every asset they have on the market to absorb it (maybe apart from EOS), because volume is very volatile, when they are withdrawing from market volume just dies, and it's going downhill. There was so many intervations till now... But they have also restricted amount of money, so if public won't buy from them this crap, they will just market sell, or will try some OTC deals.

[d5000]

So...the elephant in the thread is your primary EW count could be wrong.

Instead of the Dec 2017 peak being the end of Wave 5, it was actually the end of Wave 3. Since Wave 2 was sharp, the correction down to 6K could very well be interpreted as a long, drawn-out Wave 4 instead of your A-B-C bear market.

You are right that there are few candidates for a valid "Wave 3". I would have used the peak in September (~$5000) which has a bit more prominence than the "Peak 3" mentioned in the OP; but it is almost as prominent as the $3000 peak in May 2017.

I have also problems with the decision of the OP to include the 2013 bubble into this Elliott wave chart. For me, the 2013 peak was a wave 5 peak of the previous cycle, while the current cycle begun in late 2014 (what the OP describes as the bottom of wave 2).

But on a more general level I agree with OP's analysis - and it's unlikely that the bull market already has resumed. We currently continue to follow the 2014 pattern closely and so for me it's likely that after this intermediate rally, which may be a "b" or "x" wave, we return to a last bearish phase which could take us to $3000 or so.
 

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

For now everything seems to be going still ok, but you were quite close to your SL.
I'm very berish on whole crypto market, and imo what we are seeing is a big pump of big hedge funds, to just wipe out every asset they have on the market to absorb it (maybe apart from EOS), because volume is very volatile, when they are withdrawing from market volume just dies, and it's going downhill. There was so many intervations till now... But they have also restricted amount of money, so if public won't buy from them this crap, they will just market sell, or will try some OTC deals.

Yes, quite the manipulated pump in EOS, impressive nonetheless!
RSI hasn't peaked above previous highs, yet price has; which may indicate a negative divergence.
The second leg of the rally has now equaled the first.
Possible top? Tricky to say. A short with a stop at 23.5 looks interesting...

[CookieFactory]

But on a more general level I agree with OP's analysis - and it's unlikely that the bull market already has resumed. We currently continue to follow the 2014 pattern closely and so for me it's likely that after this intermediate rally, which may be a "b" or "x" wave, we return to a last bearish phase which could take us to $3000 or so.
 

Near term movements aside:

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, and die on euphoria.” -Sir John Templeton

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

[morgan4140]

Do not write this kind of nonsense anywhere else. I think the whole community of the cryptocurrency world should avoid such people with such a crazy opinion.

[muf18]

Do not write this kind of nonsense anywhere else. I think the whole community of the cryptocurrency world should avoid such people with such a crazy opinion.

Yeah, better avoid, "such crazy people" because you'd be better to
"look back, when train is going towards you faster and faster" .

Go HODLin strong, cause you have strong hands.

[Gadhoh]

these are all related to the FUD, When the investors are driven by such a mentality, they buy cattle and sell them in a herd. When they buy, they cause a price bubble. When they sell, they trigger an accident