2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[figmentofmyass]

xxxx123abcxxxx, why do all your counts have such long wave 2 vs. extremely short wave 4 (in terms of time)? this is not against hard rules, but it's very uncommon and the proportions don't look quite right. impulses should roughly fit within trend channels---impossible on your charts.

Do not write this kind of nonsense anywhere else. I think the whole community of the cryptocurrency world should avoid such people with such a crazy opinion.

if anything, as a bull, you want to see more overenthusiastic bears and permabears. the more bearish the sentiment, the more shorts there are to squeeze.

[1713986333]

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[muf18]

xxxx123abcxxxx, why do all your counts have such long wave 2 vs. extremely short wave 4 (in terms of time)? this is not against hard rules, but it's very uncommon and the proportions don't look quite right. impulses should roughly fit within trend channels---impossible on your charts.

Do not write this kind of nonsense anywhere else. I think the whole community of the cryptocurrency world should avoid such people with such a crazy opinion.

if anything, as a bull, you want to see more overenthusiastic bears and permabears. the more bearish the sentiment, the more shorts there are to squeeze.

Yeah we are seeing this permabear sentiment, by people sentiment "mooning" out in space.
So everybody is so bear...

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

xxxx123abcxxxx, why do all your counts have such long wave 2 vs. extremely short wave 4 (in terms of time)? this is not against hard rules, but it's very uncommon and the proportions don't look quite right. impulses should roughly fit within trend channels---impossible on your charts.

Rule of Alternation: Waves 2 and 4 often take alternate forms. For example, a simple sharp move in wave 2 suggests a complex mild move in wave 4; and vice-versa. Simple moves generally resolve quicker than complex moves.

Five wave impulsive moves on long-term Primary and Cycle degrees don't often trend channel, especially not on parabolic curves!

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Bitfinex has exceeded its 25-APR high of 9767, whilst the other exchanges have yet to do so.
In addition, appears to be Price/RSI negative divergence on the 4-hr, possible double top?

Following price targets (Bitfinex) in play if all the exchanges collectively take out their 25-APR highs:

—wave-c: Rallied 50% from 01-APR to 25-APR, retracing a Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-b at 9767 and thus far appears complete.
If wave-c subdivides, additional upside targets as follows:
1. @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
2. @10571: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of wave-b.
However, should wave-c be complete, it would suggest the entire Symmetrical Triangle forms beneath the psychological 10,000 level.

BTCUSD (COINBASE)
OPEN: 9650
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 9765
RISK: 1.10%
REWARD: 55%

[muf18]

Well I guess stop is now taken away.
Trends are down, but we are going up. What a surprise. Nothing really matter other than sweet pump. Info, no info, news, no news, nothing matter apart from pumping out it hard.

[figmentofmyass]

xxxx123abcxxxx, why do all your counts have such long wave 2 vs. extremely short wave 4 (in terms of time)? this is not against hard rules, but it's very uncommon and the proportions don't look quite right. impulses should roughly fit within trend channels---impossible on your charts.

Rule of Alternation: Waves 2 and 4 often take alternate forms. For example, a simple sharp move in wave 2 suggests a complex mild move in wave 4; and vice-versa. Simple moves generally resolve quicker than complex moves.

right. so you're telling me that a wave 2 which took two years time and a wave 4 which took 1 weeks time are proportional? they occur at the same degree? that's a bit hard to believe.

and the rule of alternation is not a hard rule. it's a guideline. it's no reason to force counts.

Bitfinex has exceeded its 25-APR high of 9767, whilst the other exchanges have yet to do so.
In addition, appears to be Price/RSI negative divergence on the 4-hr, possible double top?

that is not proper negative divergence. you're ignoring the middle peak. i used to try to paint bear divergences like that years ago, and i recall being punished for it a lot.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

xxxx123abcxxxx, why do all your counts have such long wave 2 vs. extremely short wave 4 (in terms of time)? this is not against hard rules, but it's very uncommon and the proportions don't look quite right. impulses should roughly fit within trend channels---impossible on your charts.

Rule of Alternation: Waves 2 and 4 often take alternate forms. For example, a simple sharp move in wave 2 suggests a complex mild move in wave 4; and vice-versa. Simple moves generally resolve quicker than complex moves.

right. so you're telling me that a wave 2 which took two years time and a wave 4 which took 1 weeks time are proportional? they occur at the same degree? that's a bit hard to believe.

and the rule of alternation is not a hard rule. it's a guideline. it's no reason to force counts.

Bitfinex has exceeded its 25-APR high of 9767, whilst the other exchanges have yet to do so.
In addition, appears to be Price/RSI negative divergence on the 4-hr, possible double top?

that is not proper negative divergence. you're ignoring the middle peak. i used to try to paint bear divergences like that years ago, and i recall being punished for it a lot.

Price/RSI divergences on the daily too, so quite dubious of the rally at the moment, lets see if the daily can close above 9680 (Bitfinex).
Currently, taking out 9630 would indicate weakening upside momentum.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Sell In May And Go Away?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Ten Thousand Tease
https://redd.it/8hdhjn

Since the 01-APR-2018 low, the Bitcoin market has now rallied an impressive 55% and, at the time of writing came within $10 of hitting the psychological $10,000 mark, $9990 on Bitfinex.

Quite a tease, but thus far, Fare Thee Well Ten Thousand remains! #10kNeverAgain https://redd.it/842ssd

An overall Symmetrical Triangle formation since the 06-FEB-2018 low still appears to remain in play unless 11700 (Bitfinex) is exceeded; structure as follows:



—wave-a: Rallied 95% from the 06-FEB to 05-MAR, retracing a 50% Fibonacci of the downtrend wave that began on 06-JAN.

—wave-b: Declined 45% from 05-MAR to 01-APR, retracing a 95% of wave-a.

—wave-c: Rallied 55% from 01-APR to thus far with upside targets as follows (Bitfinex):
1. @9740: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave-b.
2. @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
3. @10571-10640: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of wave-b.

The first target has been exceeded, the second target has been met with an additional 44 points thus far; since then, the market appears to have found weakness.  

Price/RSI negative divergences are appearing on multiple hour timeframes suggesting the rally is being superficially driven simply to hit the psychological 10000 mark:



Exceeding the psychological 10000 mark would clear the price/RSI negative divergences and drive price towards the third aforementioned target zone.

At this point in time, taking out 9736 would indicate weakening upside momentum —a short position there would pose a 2.55% risk with a stop at 9990.

Should wave-c be complete at time of writing, it would suggest the entire Symmetrical Triangle forms beneath the psychological 10000 level.

There are two further waves required to complete the Symmetrical Triangle pattern. Given the converging price action trendlines of the triangle, the following are projections for the two outstanding legs:

—wave-d: Expected to decline and retrace at least a Fibonacci 78.6% of wave-c towards 7200. Converging trendlines of the Symmetrical Triangle would suggest a 30% decline to approx 6750.

—wave-e: The final leg of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern, and the shortest. Expected to retrace between a Fibonacci 61.8% to 78.6% of wave-d, rallying approx 35% towards 8750 to 9250.

The converging trendlines suggest the Symmetrical Triangle pattern ought to complete in Jun. At which point, the bear market is expected to resume towards 4257 which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.

Looking at the overall market, it appears many popular cryptocurrencies have rallied into key Fibonacci resistance areas. For example, LTC has now retraced a Fibonacci 50% of the decline from 20-FEB-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time, as follows:





 

[jbreher]

Let me see if I understand you correctly. You seem to be indicating that -- given the data available to you today -- your best current projection for the price of one BTC come August is less than twenty-five dollars American?

[muf18]

Let me see if I understand you correctly. You seem to be indicating that -- given the data available to you today -- your best current projection for the price of one BTC come August is less than twenty-five dollars American?

It's LTC. Not BTC

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Let me see if I understand you correctly. You seem to be indicating that -- given the data available to you today -- your best current projection for the price of one BTC come August is less than twenty-five dollars American?

It's LTC. Not BTC

Charts are indicative of price and structure, not time. LTC $20 by 3Q2019 estimation.

"Buying LTC is extremely risky. I expect us to have a multi-year bear market like the one we just had where LTC dropped 90% in value ($48 to $4). So if you can't handle LTC dropping to $20, don't buy!" —Charlie Lee, 11 Dec 2017.
 

[jbreher]

Let me see if I understand you correctly. You seem to be indicating that -- given the data available to you today -- your best current projection for the price of one BTC come August is less than twenty-five dollars American?

It's LTC. Not BTC

Haha. So it is.

[kronos123]

I'm not good at drawing graphs like the author's thread, which I really admire, but identifying exactly the sequence and order of the elliot waves is extremely complicated, if not impossible, and you only understand it later when you go to see what the market has done.

We are about to enter a period that has always been favorable to the growth and increase of the encrypted market since it was born, May-June.

Elliot's waves show us the seasonality, the rhythm and the repetition of certain cycles, which are repeated over time; Fibonacci shows us retracements and recoveries of these cycles.
Together they are a fundamental tool for the trader, and the study of the market.

For these reasons, I believe that Bitcoin after a short break and a few days drop, perhaps around $ 9,000, can start to rise to $ 12,000-13,000 (50% of the recovery between the $ 20,000 and $ 6,000 minimum); after this recovery perhaps a new heavy correction towards the final objectives of 3000-4000 $, which indicates Elliot.

[jbreher]

after this recovery perhaps a new heavy correction towards the final objectives of 3000-4000 $, which indicates Elliot.

So what makes 3000-4000 $ the 'final objectives'? And why does this indicate Elliot?

[muf18]

We have seen nice drop almost idea according to chart by @xxxx123abcxxxx.
So now max 9500-9600 bounce and more drop, should occur, per this chart.

BTW. - "FUD" is an idiotic acronym for people, which can't handle reality. They want to swim,
in their childhood playdreams, so they are attaching every negative/not positive information,
whenever it's true or false, as something, which is by their opinion, "FUD". It's really childish,
and I'm terified, that people from exchanges and projects are really using it.

It became a meme, but people seems to not understand it, because it's overused, and often
improperly to right accusation, and fair on-point critique.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Sell In May And Go Away

Bitcoin has now retraced and declined a Fibonacci 50% of the April Fools' rally from the 01-APR-2018 low to 05-MAY-2018 high.

16 days of gains erased in 6 days: the markets take the stairs up and the elevator down.

The first leg of the decline unfolded in seven waves dropping 10%.

The second leg of the decline thus far has been a single relentless wave dropping over $1000 over the course of a day and half.
Persistence of selling has been attributed to a police raid of UPbit—South Korea’s largest crypto platform.

In regards to wave relationships, the second leg of the decline has thus far been a Fibonacci 1.236% extension of the first.

RSI on the 4-hr is now oversold as can be, dipping below a reading of 20. Barring any wave subdivisions, there appear to be enough waves to suggest a temporal bounce.

The decline from the 05-MAY-2018 high to 12-MAY-2018 low may bounce with the following targets (BITSTAMP):

@8875: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 05-MAY-2018 high to 12-MAY-2018 low.
@9080: 50% Fibonacci retracement of 05-MAY-2018 high to 12-MAY-2018 low.
@9140: 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 01-APR-2018 low to 05-MAY-2018 high
@9285: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 05-MAY-2018 high to 12-MAY-2018 low.

9110 (BITSTAMP) is the average of the second and third aforementioned confluence levels.

Should a bounce be underway, it may offer an opportunity to get near as possible to the psychological 10,000 level again to offload HODL positions either at profit or loss.

From then on, the Sell In May And Go Away decline is expected to resume and retrace at least 78.6% of the April Fools' rally to 7245 (BITSTAMP) at a minimum.

Speculative and guesswork roadmap as follows:

[muf18]

Great call.  Xxx again at it

[LFC_Bitcoin]

{—-snip—-}

[muf18]

{—-snip—-}

"If it has done 2-3 times the same thing, and this was in bull market, that's obvious that in bear market, we will do the same" - right?