2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[airdrophunter]

This is one of the finest FUDs i've seen a while ago but i think this will also be the FUD that will fail again like many other FUDs i've seen around too. If this will happen, then fine but sad to say bitcoin and these altcoins are done already. They will always come back and even break it's previous record as far as market cap and price are concerned.

[1714815377]

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[MGBloomz]

In my own understanding this bitcoin technology will not go with those graphical analysis as this has his own path. You can predict and forecast a typhoon coming but not bitcoin price. This is purely speculative and subject to those news and happenings around the crypto world plus to add those investors mood and emotions if they want to sell or buy bitcoin.

[UnDerDoG81]

So I guess OP has no cryptos, is invested in Gold and making a stunning 1% a year. Cryptos are bad and you will always lose. We got it. Go and invest in stuff that's under control of governments.

[muf18]

This is one of the finest FUDs i've seen a while ago but i think this will also be the FUD that will fail again like many other FUDs i've seen around too. If this will happen, then fine but sad to say bitcoin and these altcoins are done already. They will always come back and even break it's previous record as far as market cap and price are concerned.

So I guess OP has no cryptos, is invested in Gold and making a stunning 1% a year. Cryptos are bad and you will always lose. We got it. Go and invest in stuff that's under control of governments.

That assumption is making both of look like ignorants, than educated people (well I wouldn't have guessed, as well, as 80% of this forum is like this)
OP is speculating ups and downs of crypto.
He is a speculant, and take advatange of both ways in it.

And you?

[kronos123]

The author of the thread is only carrying out his idea and his study; he is not telling anyone to buy at xxxx price or sell at yyyy price; he is not doing any fomo or fud.

Everyone must buy or sell with his head; the moment you read or study someone else's work your mind is affected, either small or large.
It's up to you, wise investor, to take the best that can be used for your trading and your investment, without letting you influence your choices.

Personally I appreciate and admire very much the study of OP!

[drays]

That assumption is making both of look like ignorants, than educated people (well I wouldn't have guessed, as well, as 80% of this forum is like this)
OP is speculating ups and downs of crypto.
He is a speculant, and take advatange of both ways in it.

Looks like you are not reading this thread carefully, while being one of the most prominent posters here
The OP is shorting only - though the OP has predicted some of the ups, there was almost no position here to take advantage of them.

@kronos123: yes I agree 100% - this thread is just a study of OP made public. He is adamant in his views, is playing his game and makes it visible just in case - as if his predictions come true, he'll gain respect and popularity, which is much more than money.

EDIT: added the word almost.

[muf18]

Really? Only shorts? And what is this ?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg30273641#msg30273641

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg29457211#msg29457211

[UnDerDoG81]

And you?

Holding for over 5 years. I´ve read hundred times that bitcoin is death and seen dozens of threads like this were people think they can predict the price.

[drays]

Really? Only shorts? And what is this ?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg30273641#msg30273641

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg29457211#msg29457211

Ok, great, thanks, you found two long positions amount tens of short ones. I agree you are reading the thread carefully enough.
So I edited my post accordingly - only a single word was missing there - the word "almost" Not that it changes a lot. OP is still making money on downside only - he preferred to miss a lot of upside movements, as they do not play an important role in his plan. Now thats understandable, taking into account his overall skeptical views.

[muf18]

I mean he isn't biased on short only side and play both sides (like me, but I dont really like to short, so I buy back into positions, on huge corrections, and solding it on after we hit huge overbought levels, within this bear market).

Maybe he is skeptical, but how not to be a skeptical for an asset, that main purpose is to make money, because you can't pay in it, almost anywhere (yeah of course you can pay in "some" online stores - only some, and most of them are directly connected to fiat exchange - so you are effectively exchanging to fiat money).

So main purpose is speculative trading. That's it.
Or am I wrong?

[CookieFactory]

This thread is absolutely not FUD. It’s rational analysis of Bitcoin prices. Come on people, just because it’s bearish doesn’t mean he’s calling your baby ugly.

[drays]

So main purpose is speculative trading. That's it.
Or am I wrong?

Well, current main usage (definitely not the purpose) is still speculative trading (and speculative holding), which makes it similar to gold. Yes, gold has a lot of other usage too, but the main component in price is still the price speculation.

However Bitcoin and crypto in general have many advantages over any other asset, so the usage will grow. Even if we don't take altcoins/blockchain tech into account (and I personally believe they add a lot of value to ecosystem), Bitcoin's decentralization, limited supply and independence of any "big brother" is a big plus by itself.

Even if Bitcoin will never rise in price (just keeps more or less stable), and never have any "real" usage as money, I would prefer to keep money in Bitcoin, as any other existing asset is either really hard to manage/buy/sell/transport, or is owned by some party I don't fully trust. It doesn't actually need much usage, its all about psychology, people just need to get used to the existing price of Bitcoin. Even overinflated assets like USD are still keeping their value (more or less), just because people believe they are worth something...

[muf18]

So main purpose is speculative trading. That's it.
Or am I wrong?

Well, current main usage (definitely not the purpose) is still speculative trading (and speculating holding), which makes it similar to gold. Yes, gold has a lot of other usage too, but the main component in price is still the price speculation. .

However Bitcoin and crypto in general have many advantages over any other asset, so the usage will grow. Even if we don't take altcoins/blockchain tech into account (and I personally believe they add a lot of value to ecosystem), Bitcoin's decentralization, limited supply and independence of any "big brother" is a big plus by itself.

Even if Bitcoin will never rise in price (just keeps more or less stable), and never have any "real" usage as money, I would prefer to keep money in Bitcoin, as any other existing asset is either really hard to manage/buy/sell/transport, or is owned by some party I don't fully trust. It doesn't actually need much usage, its all about psychology, people just need to get used to the existing price of Bitcoin. Even overinflated assets like USD are still keeping their value (more or less), just because people believe they are worth something...

But you just gave me my point. And what if we get blockchains based USD, EUR, etc? Will people be so willingly sending still crypto? I don't think so.

Bitcoin is a good tool for speculation that's right.
In long-term, tho there must be larger, and larger base of bagholders to hold it's price. What you said with gold is mainly untrue - it has a lot of more usage than speculative trading, it has a lot of unique properties, and have a lot of usage in real life.
Besides gold is a hedge against inflation. Other precious metals have other very important role in economy such as producing computer components with it - silver and gold, car industry - platinum

And Bitcoin main usage is speculative trading, and maybe holding value (but if it is - it's terrible at it - going up and down like crazy). It isn't really some kind of "safe haven". I would maybe put it in that category in 2016, when volumes were consistent and price wasn't crazy pumping and depumping.

Basing economy and more retailers on Bitcoin basically failed - till now it doesn't get more adopted. Just more traded on more exchanges. It looks like big decentralized gambling casino, worldwide.

The same looks moves on BTC.

And I dont want to tell it, because I'm not against it. I'm really not. I'm supporting various crypto projects, and I'm supporting it's ideas trully and with my heart.
It just became a field for scammers and pump & dumpers, and people cheering on it, because they can now "earn" their "millions". Nobody would give a fuck about crypto apart from small group of enthusiasts, if it wouldn't pump like crazy in 2013, and then in 2017.
All in all - the most important thing in crypto (it seems) is a big PUMP. If there is not pump - coin is a shitcoin, scamcoin etc.
And the most funny thing is - pumping are mostly shitcoins and scamcoins. That's truly amazing experiance to see all that. And it will be amazing to see it in retrospective, when people (at least should be) will finally wake up to it.

The point is - some projects are great. But it's not the reason for their insane valuation, because it isn't organic demand, just speculative, pump demand.

That's all I have to say.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Triangle Phinance
https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/XGi7APD8-2018-Cryptocurrency-Crash-Elliott-Wave-Triangle-Phinance/
https://redd.it/8mwx6z

From 17-DEC-2017 to 06-FEB-2018, the Bitcoin market declined 70% in just 50 days. This decline has been the first leg of the cryptocurrency bear market.

Since the low set on 06-FEB-2018, the Bitcoin market has meandered sideways for over 100 days thus far. Price action appears to be contracting into a symmetrical triangle formation with diminishing volume and volatility. Bitcoin is behaving like a boring stable currency!

Once the symmetrical triangle completes, the second leg, and most devastating leg, of the cryptocurrency bear market is expected to resume with a breakout in volume and volatility.

A triangle formation reflects a balance of forces creating a sideways movement; an equilibrium and indecisive psychological state of mind between the bulls & bears, creating a period of consolidation as the market deliberates its next move.

Five waves are expected in a contracting symmetrical triangle pattern, labelled as a-b-c-d-e waves.
Under textbook Elliott Wave analysis, at least two of the five alternate waves are typically related to each other by the Fibonacci 0.618 golden ratio:



—wave-a: Rallied 95% from 06-FEB to 05-MAR, retracing a 50% Fibonacci of the downtrend wave that began on 06-JAN.

—wave-b: Declined 45% from 05-MAR to 01-APR, retracing a 95% of wave-a.

—wave-c: ‘April Fools Rally’: Rallied 55% from 01-APR to 05-MAY. In regards to length, it was a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-a and terminated just shy of the psychological 10,000 level.

—wave-d: ‘Sell In May And Go Away’: Declined 30% thus far from 05-MAY to present. Should wave-d equal a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-b, it would do so at around 6675 (BITFINEX) —and converging trendlines of the triangle suggest by early JUN. This wave-d must terminate above wave-b for the symmetrical triangle to remain valid; i.e. above the APR low of 6425 (BITFINEX).

—wave-e: The final leg of the contracting symmetrical triangle pattern, and the shortest. Should wave-e equal a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-c, it would do so at around 8875 (BITFINEX) —and converging trendlines of the triangle suggest by mid JUN. It is common for this final wave-e of a symmetrical triangle to either undershoot or overshoot. However, this wave-e must terminate below wave-c for the overall symmetrical triangle to remain valid; i.e. below the MAY high of 9990 (BITFINEX). Incidentally, CBOE Bitcoin futures expire on 13-JUN. Also, 16-JUN would mark 100 days since price last traded at the psychological 10,000 level.

Upon completion of contracting symmetrical triangle pattern, the bear market is expected to resume towards 4257 (BITFINEX) which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.

Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unravelling bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases approx 90% in value (thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes).

Applying the metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin between $850 and $2500 (or $1000 on average) around 3Q2019.

Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time, as follows:

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Triangle Phinance II
https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/KPo2tu4D-2018-Cryptocurrency-Crash-Elliott-Wave-Triangle-Phinance-II/
https://redd.it/8q5p68

As of writing, the April 2018 low, i.e. 6425 (BITFINEX) must not be exceeded for the following analysis to remain valid…

The contracting symmetrical triangle, which has been forming in the Bitcoin market since 06-FEB-2018, appears to have now completed four of its five waves.

Five waves are expected in a contracting symmetrical triangle pattern, labelled as a-b-c-d-e waves.

Under textbook Elliott Wave analysis, at least two of the five alternate waves are typically related to each other by the Fibonacci 0.618 golden ratio.

Thus far, waves a-b-c-d have of all unfolded adhering to the Fibonacci 0.618 golden ratio in relation to each other, and the fifth and final wave-e rally now ought to be underway:



—wave-a: Rallied 95% from 06-FEB to 05-MAR, retracing a 50% Fibonacci of the downtrend wave that began on 06-JAN.

—wave-b: Declined 45% from 05-MAR to 01-APR, retracing a 95% of wave-a.

—wave-c: ‘April Fools Rally’: Rallied 55% from 01-APR to 05-MAY. In regards to length, it was a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-a and terminated just shy of the psychological 10,000 level.

—wave-d: ‘Sell In May And Go Away’: Declined 33% from 05-MAY to 10-JUN. In regards to length, wave-d equals a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-b. The April low, i.e. 6425 (BITFINEX) must not be exceeded for the contracting symmetrical triangle to remain valid.

—wave-e: The final rally leg of the contracting symmetrical triangle pattern, and the shortest, now ought to be underway. Should wave-e equal a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-c, it would do so at around 8822 (BITFINEX). It is common for this final wave-e of a symmetrical triangle to either undershoot or overshoot. However, this wave-e must terminate below wave-c for the overall symmetrical triangle to remain valid; i.e. below the MAY high of 9990 (BITFINEX) —the psychological 10,000 level. Given the converging trendlines of the triangle, it appears the final wave-e rally leg of the triangle may undershoot its target; hence, additional targets (BITFINEX):
@8305: wave-e retraces Fibonacci 50% of wave-d.
@8707: wave-e retraces Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-d.

Once the symmetrical triangle completes, the second leg, and most devastating leg, of the cryptocurrency bear market is expected to resume with a breakout in volume and volatility. Initial expectation is towards 4257 (BITFINEX) which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.

Notes:
—13-JUN: CBOE XBT expiration.
—16-JUN: 100 days since price last traded at the psychological 10,000 level.
—29-JUN: CME Bitcoin futures last trade.

Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time, as follows:

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

[CookieFactory]

If nothing else, this thread is a great learning resource on EW. Curious, how are you drawing the potential future price action candles?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

If nothing else, this thread is a great learning resource on EW. Curious, how are you drawing the potential future price action candles?

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BCCUSDT/FFkp3khQ-Bars-pattern-tutorial/

[figmentofmyass]

good ideas here, xxxx123abcxxxx. i had been leaning towards your descending triangle, especially since the E wave (if the triangle were symmetrical) would have retraced quite low and was not well-developed. normally, i expect .618-705 or at least .5 for an E wave.

having said that, the stop run to $6100 has me scratching my head. the february-may correction is pretty irregular (contracting range) for a non-triangle corrective. also, the leg down in may doesn't look impulsive (as a higher degree C wave should).

what is your expectation here? are we in some kind of unpredictable complex corrective?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

good ideas here, xxxx123abcxxxx. i had been leaning towards your descending triangle, especially since the E wave (if the triangle were symmetrical) would have retraced quite low and was not well-developed. normally, i expect .618-705 or at least .5 for an E wave.

having said that, the stop run to $6100 has me scratching my head. the february-may correction is pretty irregular (contracting range) for a non-triangle corrective. also, the leg down in may doesn't look impulsive (as a higher degree C wave should).

what is your expectation here? are we in some kind of unpredictable complex corrective?

Still inclined to go with the triangle for now. Should the market rally from here, upside targets for wave-e revised lower to 7880-8200 approx.

If the current lows fail, then next supports expected are at 5988 and 5740 on BITSTAMP —below that and may have to ditch the triangle.

Appears to be positive price/RSI divergence on the 4hr, but not inclined to buy yet unless the RSI closes above 30: