2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[drays]

8 months have passed and it seems like the technical analysis and getting close to it's last prediction. I'm very terrified that it might happen because people's hopes now only exist on the ETF decision so if they did not favor it then our only way is to go down to the pit of darkness with no light at all.

Really? I don't care about ETF decision at all. That is pretty minor thing. Development and real adoption does not depend on ETF. It would be nice to see some despair after ETF rejection, so finally we can shake off the ballast, and have chance to recover. IMHO bitcoin needs to become stronger in terms of underlying tech and adoption, needs to get more people understanding its concepts and appreciating them, before it enters the sea full of sharks.

People trading BTC or buying it to make profit, do not make Bitcoin stronger. Most of them (especially newcomers) assume Bitcoin is another ponzi, and they are happy with that, as soon as they get profits. I see a lot of people locally (most of them), who still think Bitcoin is just a way to make $$$ from open air by doing some magic called "mining", others still associate Bitcoin with dark market and crime. A lot of education is still needed before we can think of further price growth. The last pump ("bubble") attracted a lot of new people, which is good, but there were too many of wrong type, who need to be filtered out, so when dust settles, we have more real supporters, than before the pump.
The community of people who understand and appreciate the decentralisation, the need for independent currency of 21th century, is what makes BTC strong. And I assume that community does not eagerly wait for ETF approval, but more for Lightning adoption.

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[kronos123]

Well I think he is the only person in here that in January he pulled out that study, with graphs and waves, prices and time ..... it will not be 100% accurate, but how would it be?

You are joking right?  The bear market is almost totally identical as it was 5 times in past. Just the times intervals are different. Everyone that know at least a bit of history of Bitcoin could predict this.

What is totally bullshit is his prediction of future. He believes. And for sure this was not written in charts, that Bitcoin will get replaced by 2020. And its value will get to 2014 values.  Values of when Bitcoin block was worth 25 BTC and then will be 6.25 BTC. Total crap.

No, I'm not kidding and this is my first real and serious bear market I live!

If you already know these dynamics and patterns, if you've already seen this before and you are able to predict it too, why do not you open a new topic and show us your correct projections, and your studies?
Why are you in here shooting sentences on the work of others, and do not publish yours?
Why do you say that his prediction of the future is totally bullshit? I hope it's wrong but I'm not sure! Why are you so sure?

I repeat, OP is showing its prediction of a possible future, the result of his personal experience and study; the constructive and argued criticism I think they are always appreciated by everyone, but the attacks and the miserable speculation I think and hope can be avoided, especially by "old" users.

[drays]

If you already know these dynamics and patterns, if you've already seen this before and you are able to predict it too, why do not you open a new topic and show us your correct projections, and your studies?
Why are you in here shooting sentences on the work of others, and do not publish yours?
Why do you say that his prediction of the future is totally bullshit? I hope it's wrong but I'm not sure! Why are you so sure?

I repeat, OP is showing its prediction of a possible future, the result of his personal experience and study; the constructive and argued criticism I think they are always appreciated by everyone, but the attacks and the miserable speculation I think and hope can be avoided, especially by "old" users.

You are free to believe whomever you like. Many people here post based on their "personal experience and study"; some elaborate more, while others do less. Oldtimers tell you not to panic, you are free to ignore them, and follow newcomers coming from stock markets, who treat Bitcon like every other regular asset they have traded before... Regarding OP being the first to warn you about the price crash - well, internet was full of doom predictions for BTC back in December. The famous "bubble burst" graph (posted a lot by OP in this thread) was spread all over bloomberg-like media.

Some people like to trust any information handed to them in well-rounded "scientific" form with a lot of graphs, theory and links. Its pretty good tactics - show some analysis and make some well-grounded statements, so people believe you, and then add some disguised disinformation (paid for or not). The method is widely used by many agencies. There are people warning you to be careful with this information, you are free to ignore them and call it "miserable speculation". Your choice. With this kind of ignorance, you would probably be one of those who'll be shaken off in this bear market.

[Febo]

Well I think he is the only person in here that in January he pulled out that study, with graphs and waves, prices and time ..... it will not be 100% accurate, but how would it be?

You are joking right?  The bear market is almost totally identical as it was 5 times in past. Just the times intervals are different. Everyone that know at least a bit of history of Bitcoin could predict this.

What is totally bullshit is his prediction of future. He believes. And for sure this was not written in charts, that Bitcoin will get replaced by 2020. And its value will get to 2014 values.  Values of when Bitcoin block was worth 25 BTC and then will be 6.25 BTC. Total crap.

No, I'm not kidding and this is my first real and serious bear market I live!

If you already know these dynamics and patterns, if you've already seen this before and you are able to predict it too, why do not you open a new topic and show us your correct projections, and your studies?
Why are you in here shooting sentences on the work of others, and do not publish yours?
Why do you say that his prediction of the future is totally bullshit? I hope it's wrong but I'm not sure! Why are you so sure?

I repeat, OP is showing its prediction of a possible future, the result of his personal experience and study; the constructive and argued criticism I think they are always appreciated by everyone, but the attacks and the miserable speculation I think and hope can be avoided, especially by "old" users.

Here you have my dear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4565861.msg41146110#msg41146110

I do not bother with prices much. Since I dont trade I just buy with my extra money. And sort of buy no matter of price.   Anyway, considering that and bottom next month I speculate recovery will start in maybe April next year. until then just staying close to bottom or close to where we are right now.  Chance of a lifetime for everyone to enter Crypto.

I repeat, OP is showing its prediction of a possible future, the result of his personal experience and study;

No he is not. He is keep changing them, because he is keep wrong.

[muf18]

If you already know these dynamics and patterns, if you've already seen this before and you are able to predict it too, why do not you open a new topic and show us your correct projections, and your studies?
Why are you in here shooting sentences on the work of others, and do not publish yours?
Why do you say that his prediction of the future is totally bullshit? I hope it's wrong but I'm not sure! Why are you so sure?

I repeat, OP is showing its prediction of a possible future, the result of his personal experience and study; the constructive and argued criticism I think they are always appreciated by everyone, but the attacks and the miserable speculation I think and hope can be avoided, especially by "old" users.

You are free to believe whomever you like. Many people here post based on their "personal experience and study"; some elaborate more, while others do less. Oldtimers tell you to not panic, you are free to ignore them, and follow newcomers coming from stock markets, who are treating Bitcon like every other shit asset they have traded before... BTW, internet was full of doom predictions for BTC back in December. The famous "bubble burst" graph (posted is this thread a lot) was spread all over bloomberg-like media.

Some people like to trust any information handed to them in well-rounded "scientific" form with a lot of graphs, theory and links. Its pretty good tactics - show some analysis and make some well-grounded statements, so people believe you, and then add some disguised disinformation (paid for or not). The method is widely used by many agencies. There are people warning you to be careful with this information, you are free to ignore them and call it "miserable speculation". Your choice. I assume you are one of those who should be shaken off in this bear market.

Surely you have more experiance then those "traders from stock markets" trading "shit assets". Guess what? BTC is shit asset. It's slow, 0 intrisic value shit asset. You exactly described it. There isnt any "new paradigm", just some people that want to get richer in fiat money. Every bear market is different, and you can't take it, that it will go the same way. You actually presents 0 evidence for the viability of cryptocurrencies and presents typical ignorance for people in crypto "sphere". I actually know the purpose of most of them and actual usage - and to say least - it's not impressive given the 200B$ marketcap, it's laughable, 90%+ is price speculation only, not usage or anything. Ethereum dapps have almost 0 usage, the same with almost any altcoin. Bitcoin has on average about 200K tx per day - miniscule number taking into account all the global operations, and most of them are lotteries, hazards, and exchange deposits/withdrawals. So speculation and games one more time. It is more thought as a casino or roulette than real money.

@Febo - every bear market is a different market in different timespace and circumstances. Such approach won't get you anywhere - I thought about the same - long, long time ago, and it won't go the same way, it is already different road. The most common approach was taking nasdaq 2000 bubble burst, as it's closest and resembles moves in longer term probably, but still it isn't the same.

[drays]

Surely you have more experiance then those "traders from stock markets" trading "shit assets". Guess what? BTC is shit asset. It's slow, 0 intrisic value shit asset. You exactly described it. There isnt any "new paradigm", just some people that want to get richer in fiat money. Every bear market is different, and you can't take it, that it will go the same way. You actually presents 0 evidence for the viability of cryptocurrencies and presents typical ignorance for people in crypto "sphere". I actually know the purpose of most of them and actual usage - and to say least - it's not impressive given the 200B$ marketcap, it's laughable, 90%+ is price speculation only, not usage or anything. Ethereum dapps have almost 0 usage, the same with almost any altcoin. Bitcoin has on average about 200K tx per day - miniscule number taking into account all the global operations, and most of them are lotteries, hazards, and exchange deposits/withdrawals. So speculation and games one more time. It is more thought as a casino or roulette than real money.

Amen!  

Try to draft an article for Bloomberg - they would love the idea. I see the heading: "Former crypto enthusiast finally accepted the truth."

[muf18]

I'm a realistic, and yes I'm crypto enthusiast, just not in current form. It's too corrupted with ICOs, centralized exchanges and greedy people all over the place. I'm surprised you dont see it. And bitcoin price is also corrupted with that kind of people. Sorry to say - today's market is manipulated as hell.

[sumanto]

yes you are right and hopefully this analysis can help traders know what steps will happen in the future and what is the current condition of cryptocurrency. because there are so many traders who are panicking and confused about the current cryptocurrency price.

[kronos123]

Here you have my dear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4565861.msg41146110#msg41146110

I do not bother with prices much. Since I dont trade I just buy with my extra money. And sort of buy no matter of price.   Anyway, considering that and bottom next month I speculate recovery will start in maybe April next year. until then just staying close to bottom or close to where we are right now.  Chance of a lifetime for everyone to enter Crypto.

I repeat, OP is showing its prediction of a possible future, the result of his personal experience and study;

No he is not. He is keep changing them, because he is keep wrong.

Well, I read your analysis now, I did not know it and I do not share your analysis 
I hope for my investments that really Bitcoin find its bottom this September but my 6 sense says it's still early ..... we'll see soon 

In addition you did your analysis at the end of June, you saw the market trend and you read a lot of other analyzes, reports and information from other users and agencies, while OP made its first analysis on January 8th, with Bitcoin at $ 17,000, Eth at $ 1500, Xrp at $ 3.5, BCash at $ 3000, Ada at $ 1, Neo at $ 150, Nano at $ 30, Xvg at $ 0.17, etc ... almost every Coin reached its own Ath on January 8th and nobody expected the endless crash we've seen so far.

It remains to understand and evaluate how far we will arrive and where it will stop ... but we must recognize its merit and its analysis.

[Febo]

Here you have my dear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4565861.msg41146110#msg41146110

I do not bother with prices much. Since I dont trade I just buy with my extra money. And sort of buy no matter of price.   Anyway, considering that and bottom next month I speculate recovery will start in maybe April next year. until then just staying close to bottom or close to where we are right now.  Chance of a lifetime for everyone to enter Crypto.

I repeat, OP is showing its prediction of a possible future, the result of his personal experience and study;

No he is not. He is keep changing them, because he is keep wrong.

Well, I read your analysis now, I did not know it and I do not share your analysis 
I hope for my investments that really Bitcoin find its bottom this September but my 6 sense says it's still early ..... we'll see soon 

In addition you did your analysis at the end of June, you saw the market trend and you read a lot of other analyzes, reports and information from other users and agencies, while OP made its first analysis on January 8th, with Bitcoin at $ 17,000, Eth at $ 1500, Xrp at $ 3.5, BCash at $ 3000, Ada at $ 1, Neo at $ 150, Nano at $ 30, Xvg at $ 0.17, etc ... almost every Coin reached its own Ath on January 8th and nobody expected the endless crash we've seen so far.

It remains to understand and evaluate how far we will arrive and where it will stop ... but we must recognize its merit and its analysis.

Man he changed his analysis every time he comes to this thread. How hard is to read this?  He said there will be bottom Q3 2019. But on other post he said there will be no more growth in bitcoin.  He just throws numbers around that is it.

It is normal that you dont think bottom will happen when I do.  Everyone have different wives. But big part believes it already happened a month ago. 

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

[muf18]

Here you have my dear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4565861.msg41146110#msg41146110

I do not bother with prices much. Since I dont trade I just buy with my extra money. And sort of buy no matter of price.   Anyway, considering that and bottom next month I speculate recovery will start in maybe April next year. until then just staying close to bottom or close to where we are right now.  Chance of a lifetime for everyone to enter Crypto.

I repeat, OP is showing its prediction of a possible future, the result of his personal experience and study;

No he is not. He is keep changing them, because he is keep wrong.

Well, I read your analysis now, I did not know it and I do not share your analysis 
I hope for my investments that really Bitcoin find its bottom this September but my 6 sense says it's still early ..... we'll see soon 

In addition you did your analysis at the end of June, you saw the market trend and you read a lot of other analyzes, reports and information from other users and agencies, while OP made its first analysis on January 8th, with Bitcoin at $ 17,000, Eth at $ 1500, Xrp at $ 3.5, BCash at $ 3000, Ada at $ 1, Neo at $ 150, Nano at $ 30, Xvg at $ 0.17, etc ... almost every Coin reached its own Ath on January 8th and nobody expected the endless crash we've seen so far.

It remains to understand and evaluate how far we will arrive and where it will stop ... but we must recognize its merit and its analysis.

Man he changed his analysis every time he comes to this thread. How hard is to read this?  He said there will be bottom Q3 2019. But on other post he said there will be no more growth in bitcoin.  He just throws numbers around that is it.

It is normal that you dont think bottom will happen when I do.  Everyone have different wives. But big part believes it already happened a month ago. 

That's just tell me it's not over. Public is 90%+ times not right.

[Febo]

Here you have my dear

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4565861.msg41146110#msg41146110

I do not bother with prices much. Since I dont trade I just buy with my extra money. And sort of buy no matter of price.   Anyway, considering that and bottom next month I speculate recovery will start in maybe April next year. until then just staying close to bottom or close to where we are right now.  Chance of a lifetime for everyone to enter Crypto.

I repeat, OP is showing its prediction of a possible future, the result of his personal experience and study;

No he is not. He is keep changing them, because he is keep wrong.

Well, I read your analysis now, I did not know it and I do not share your analysis 
I hope for my investments that really Bitcoin find its bottom this September but my 6 sense says it's still early ..... we'll see soon 

In addition you did your analysis at the end of June, you saw the market trend and you read a lot of other analyzes, reports and information from other users and agencies, while OP made its first analysis on January 8th, with Bitcoin at $ 17,000, Eth at $ 1500, Xrp at $ 3.5, BCash at $ 3000, Ada at $ 1, Neo at $ 150, Nano at $ 30, Xvg at $ 0.17, etc ... almost every Coin reached its own Ath on January 8th and nobody expected the endless crash we've seen so far.

It remains to understand and evaluate how far we will arrive and where it will stop ... but we must recognize its merit and its analysis.

Man he changed his analysis every time he comes to this thread. How hard is to read this?  He said there will be bottom Q3 2019. But on other post he said there will be no more growth in bitcoin.  He just throws numbers around that is it.

It is normal that you dont think bottom will happen when I do.  Everyone have different wives. But big part believes it already happened a month ago. 

That's just tell me it's not over. Public is 90%+ times not right.

It is hard to count the %. I speculate that bottom had not happened from the simple fact that it is only 8 months after last ATH and that people here are not as depressed as they at end of 2014.

Actually when we go to 90% of public, they believe it will happen just like this guys perfects. That Bitcoin will go to $1000 and stay there. Many even believe it will go to zero.   That is the sentiment on Bitcoin from the vast majority of people on Earth. Those that think that Bitcoin will never go under $6000 are a tiny minority.

[Deubila]

yes you are right and hopefully this analysis can help traders know what steps will happen in the future and what is the current condition of cryptocurrency. because there are so many traders who are panicking and confused about the current cryptocurrency price.

It will be better when fewer people know it. When many people know too much. This leads to many complicated problems. Because the rest of the participants are mostly like a gambler. Makes the market worse and the results are not as expected.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

[AR_fan]

well right now your chart are rekt

i thought E was supposed to be the last wave ?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

well right now your chart are rekt

i thought E was supposed to be the last wave ?

A Fibonacci 38.2% to 61.8% retrace of the previous downtrend, i.e. from 24-JUL to 14-AUG, doesn't invalidate the overall bearish stance of the market.

Taking out the high of 24-JUL would favor a bullish scenario, until then, the market remains with an overall bearish bias.

The market is rallying into the 31-AUG CME last trade date, possible upside approx targets are as follows:

@7200: Fibonacci 50% retrace of 24-JUL to 14-AUG downtrend. —High probability
@7500: Fibonacci 61.8% retrace of 24-JUL to 14-AUG downtrend. —Medium probability
@8000: Fibonacci 78.6 retrace of 24-JUL to 14-AUG downtrend. —Low probability

Upon completion of the bounce, the next sell-off leg towards 5200 approx ought to resume.

Models are speculative Elliott Wave guesswork.

Trivia: the number of views of this thread has now surpassed the price of Bitcoin! 

[droptableguy2]

I'm a realistic, and yes I'm crypto enthusiast, just not in current form. It's too corrupted with ICOs, centralized exchanges and greedy people all over the place. I'm surprised you dont see it. And bitcoin price is also corrupted with that kind of people. Sorry to say - today's market is manipulated as hell.

Stay calm and optimistic on you. Good actions usually have good results.

[T o x i c a l]

I'm sure that further pessimistic forecasts that say that bitcoin will drop below 5500 is a bluff. These forecasts were created specifically to prevent many people from now buying bitcoin at a very low price. The lowest price that year.

[adam1230]

Elliot Wave analyses are not 100% correct. Those analyses usually fails on crypto market. I never trust Elliot Wave and i prefer trend channels and fibonacci levels.