2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[muf18]

I'm sure that further pessimistic forecasts that say that bitcoin will drop below 5500 is a bluff. These forecasts were created specifically to prevent many people from now buying bitcoin at a very low price. The lowest price that year.

You mean in 2019, it will be cheaper ?  

I really like bots. I mean really, they are always predictable with their stupid algos.

Must contain X to say Y

Sometimes I consider myself talking to russian bots going around here, like mad.

[lingwistiko]

Is this another FUD or what? Well, this may look so scary but i really have made up my mind to hold my crypto for several years because i have high hopes and beliefs specifically to bitcoin and other alt coins. Since i am already here, so i am also ready to take the risks.

[kronos123]

Elliot Wave analyses are not 100% correct. Those analyses usually fails on crypto market. I never trust Elliot Wave and i prefer trend channels and fibonacci levels.

It is true, but if you think about it and if you have studied well, Elliot's waves combined with the Fibonacci levels are a fundamental weapon / aid for AT on Bitcoin; if then to Elliot and Fibonacci you can also match the cycles of Gann (in my opinion the most difficult and complicated to study, understand and apply in AT) you are a BEST TRADER and you will have much to gain!

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): #ShortSeptember
https://redd.it/9c96vk

After declining 30% from the high of 24-JUL to the low of 14-AUG, the Bitcoin market has now rallied approx 25% into the 31-AUG CME futures last trade date.

Typically, the rally ought retrace a Fibonacci 50% to 61.8% of the previous downtrend (i.e. from 24-JUL to 14-AUG), with possible approx upside targets as follows:

@7200: Fibonacci 50% retrace of 24-JUL to 14-AUG downtrend. —High probability
@7500: Fibonacci 61.8% retrace of 24-JUL to 14-AUG downtrend. —Medium probability
@7600: Fibonacci 61.8% retrace of entire Bitcoin market. —Medium probability
@8000: Fibonacci 78.6 retrace of 24-JUL to 14-AUG downtrend. —Low probability

With overbought price/RSI negative divergences on the 4-hr timeframe, and with the first of the aforementioned Fibonacci targets reached; barring any wave extensions, it is quite possible that the bounce is nearing completion.

As per the aforementioned Fibonacci targets, at 7500/7600 marks a strong confluence of Fibonacci resistance zones.
At present juncture, taking out 6880 ought to signal weakening momentum, and the start of a trend reversal.

Once the current bounce completes, the next sell-off leg ought to mirror the first, i.e. a 30% drop towards 5200 approx (5178 BITFINEX) by possibly mid-September, coinciding with the CBOT XBT futures expiration on 19-SEP.

Models are speculative Elliott Wave guesswork indicative of price/structure; the projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated.

[Febo]

12 Days ago:

Today:.



It seems you cant predict even what will happen in 12 days. And Bitcoin price two times run out of your triangle. Dont you think you will have to modify that triangle a bit?

[AR_fan]

We'll know soon if this was the bitcoin thread to follow or to ignore =)

either we reverse and go bull from here, either we go to 5200, but either way a big move is in preparation, place your bets gentlemen !!!

[FlungSpun]

Nothing wrong with that upper resistance line that a log scale won't fix.

3rd option is an eternal boring flat  negative grind until everyone forgets to check a chart for a couple of weeks.

Bitcoin is going out and maybe some time. A hang over to remember (or try forget)

[drays]

We'll know soon if this was the bitcoin thread to follow or to ignore =)

either we reverse and go bull from here, either we go to 5200, but either way a big move is in preparation, place your bets gentlemen !!!

Option 1 is not an option. Too early for a bull run. Fundamentals didn't improve much yet to justify another serious bull run now. Your option 2 looks more realistic, as well as option 3 (the one mentioned in the post above mine).

[Pejoh Asu]

I think the biggest factor that causes cryptocurrencies prices to drop is the many negative news about Crypto, this has the effect that more and more countries are banned from crypto so that the market crashes and even many crypto crashes.

[BlackSociety]

I don't think Bitcoin's price will fall below $5000, because the miners' bottom line is at this price. When Bitcoin is below this price, there will be a lot of investors buying Bitcoin.

[FlungSpun]

I don't think Bitcoin's price will fall below $5000, because the miners' bottom line is at this price. When Bitcoin is below this price, there will be a lot of investors buying Bitcoin.

Whatever the price you think ( a theoretical miner for arguments sake ) you are mining BTC for you can be certain someone somewhere is paying less.
This number varies drastically around the world and miners will mine at loss to build a war chest for future bull markets anyway.
I'd argue that someone somewhere is paying next to nothing, at least some of the time, due to the a mix of politics, geothermal availability and or the economics of running power stations around demand cycles.

A better metric might be ROI on hardware vs MTBF of said hardware.

There are investors waiting at all price points. The question is. At which price point do the investors outweigh the sellers / profit takers?

I don't believe there is a magic threshold here. It could easily be $500 as $5k. This market has been, and will remain, irrational to both the upside and the downside. 

We'll find out when we get there.
So far these charts confirm my bias for more pain to come.  Simply because the universe won't let me get rich that easy, if at all.

We'll know soon if this was the bitcoin thread to follow or to ignore =)

either we reverse and go bull from here, either we go to 5200, but either way a big move is in preparation, place your bets gentlemen !!!

This can't be ignored now. It''s been too accurate so far.
It's relevance might end right here but it will be a usable reference for may market cycles to come.

[Febo]

We'll know soon if this was the bitcoin thread to follow or to ignore =)

either we reverse and go bull from here, either we go to 5200, but either way a big move is in preparation, place your bets gentlemen !!!

Option 1 is not an option. Too early for a bull run. Fundamentals didn't improve much yet to justify another serious bull run now. Your option 2 looks more realistic, as well as option 3 (the one mentioned in the post above mine).

Yup we should not see bull run this year. Next year will happen although few in this thread predict it will not happen.

[AR_fan]

nice call wave man, i think we go to 5200, all they need now is to time well the rejection of the ETF for us to go down big

what i wonder is what happens next, there is the BAKKT exchange and I assume it will be a sell the news moment and i'll treat it that way, but where will be resistance? In 2014-2015, there was 382 400 and 332 that were support for a long time, once we break it they became resistance, after bottom we couldnt even break 300-313 for nearly 11 months

now we have 6450 5750 5876, these will become resistances once we break it

if we stop at 5200 that doesnt give much of a bounce to be honest so doubt it will be the bottom, maybe we'll stop them because traders have to cover their short and 30% swing with leverage is good profit and its been whats been done so far

well, we'll see

and poor eth holders, this is going to be messy for them, please wave man share us a picture of their future chart !

EDIT: the fact this thread never stays long on page 1 is also an indicator; its like secret hidden knowledge the whales in control of the market dont want the masses to know; same happened to the beti thread during the run up, it was very hard to see it because rarely on the first page.

[CookieFactory]

Not sure about that one. At this point it’s in vogue to be bearish and the 4-5K level is the mainstream view. The funny thing is the people who hold this viewpoint think they are being contrarian but are actually the majority.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Not sure about that one. At this point it’s in vogue to be bearish and the 4-5K level is the mainstream view. The funny thing is the people who hold this viewpoint think they are being contrarian but are actually the majority.

The majority of social media, i.e. YouTube/Twitter/Reddit/Telegram/etc are STILL expecting a return to at least $10,000 before 2018 ends in 4 months —including YOU the reader of this comment!
Being a bull or a hodlr is STILL the overcrowded trade.

[muf18]

Yep, cause they don't really know what happened, they are still clueless.

Most of people still don't see that BTC value is purely speculative, and that there are waves, not real usage for it (apart from speculative "HODLing") -> "HODL GANG"   

[AR_fan]

Not sure about that one. At this point it’s in vogue to be bearish and the 4-5K level is the mainstream view. The funny thing is the people who hold this viewpoint think they are being contrarian but are actually the majority.

lol no, look at the polls on the wall observers and just read the trollbox on bitmex, and look at how market react, there has been so much shorting opportunities because dumb money get excited at every $200 pump (for instance right now, if market was smart it would keep dumping, going up again is just a crazy good short opprtunity (right at the top of the middle bband))

mainstream news still has expert saying we go above ath before end of year, pantera capital and DCG said bottom was made at 6K. (lol at that, they shorted like crazy before the future introduction, created fake website and fake fork to exit LTC and XMR and ETC for USD)

I dont think you guys realize the amount of hedge funds there was playing this bubble and selling the coins to retail, they are here since ETH are at 1$ and xmr at 15$. This is an industry. They created a whole industry into taking money from the sheep hands. They have no pity. Their ressources are high. They even own the media for fuck sake. Coindesk belong to DCG. These guys are literally creating wall of text to hype the tops so they can exit their position

Right now they are manipulating bitcoin down on bitmex, look at the volume there, you think its retail? there are 3BN volume daily LOL ! they are just exhausting the market until retail has capitulated. Volatility is still high. Retail still buying the top of every rally. How do you know when they start to buy back? price starts to get boring, no volatility, tight bbands.

With all that they sold during the run up, do you think they had time to buy back? no! there is no volume! volume is actually dying. You think its retail that is going to bring btc to next ath? retail is broke, retail bought the top and is triyng to increase his btc stash by trading but losing quickly all of it. the smartest are hodling in cold storage but the smartest are always the fewest

I dont know much about the asian funds, but they may just be worse (tron is complete bs and was hyped like crazy; neo is a shitcoin that was scam rebranded after huge period of accumulation super cheap)

really i dont think you guys have ANY IDEA of how scammish this field is

and btw, 5200 is just the next fib level, my bottom prediction is more 2650

but anyway its quite simple, you dont even need to know the price of the next bottom, you just buy when bbands are tight on the weekly and price is flat and boring and nothing is happening

[kronos123]

We'll know soon if this was the bitcoin thread to follow or to ignore =)

either we reverse and go bull from here, either we go to 5200, but either way a big move is in preparation, place your bets gentlemen !!!

In any case, the author of the thread is the only one in here or that I know that last January 8, with the Bitcoin still at about $ 17,000, he gave such indications and price projections and spoke of minimums much lower than those of today ..... but is mocked and discredited by others.

We will see with the evolution of the market who will be right!

I hope Bitcoin does not really fall above $ 3500-4000.

[AR_fan]

We'll know soon if this was the bitcoin thread to follow or to ignore =)

either we reverse and go bull from here, either we go to 5200, but either way a big move is in preparation, place your bets gentlemen !!!

In any case, the author of the thread is the only one in here or that I know that last January 8, with the Bitcoin still at about $ 17,000, he gave such indications and price projections and spoke of minimums much lower than those of today ..... but is mocked and discredited by others.

We will see with the evolution of the market who will be right!

I hope Bitcoin does not really fall above $ 3500-4000.

true and thats why his views are far off from the mainstream views, once they'll be accepted and the author will be acclaimed new master (after the demise of previous jedi masterluc) then we'll be able to consider them to be mainstream

[drays]

In any case, the author of the thread is the only one in here or that I know that last January 8, with the Bitcoin still at about $ 17,000, he gave such indications and price projections and spoke of minimums much lower than those of today ..... but is mocked and discredited by others.

Oh really?  

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-5199251/Would-buy-bitcoin-bubble-now.html
https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/investing/shouldnt-have-mortgaged-your-house-bitcoin-dips-below-us10000-selloff-erases-december-gains/news-story/ee99e376f9cf2c34b782bb7338c6a88f
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3iMejOPy-Jean-Paul-Rodrigues-Stages-of-a-Bubble/
Note the date of those articles - 21 December 2017, January 18, 2018, Jan 6. With some dedication I can find maybe other 10-20 articles of that period - all with "bubble burst" graph posted.

This notorious graph (the favorite graph of the OP I guess):


was spread with regards to Bitcoin all over financial news media during Nov 2017-Jan 2018. Funny you didn't notice it. Everyone around me was talking about the coming crash in Nov-Dec last year - the question was only will the top be 10K, 20K, 50K or 100K, and will it be in Nov, Dec, Jan or Feb. I was really worried too, so cashed out a bit, just to ease the tension.
In Dec-Jan, after first sell-off the media was especially frightening. Well, that may come down to what kind of media you typically read though, so each ones experience is different. If you read WO thread dominated by a bunch of bulls and wishers/hodlers, then yes, crash would be completely unxepected.

But well, if OP was the first you have noticed, your must be really grateful to him. I personally read this thread as an 'anatomy' of the crash by the proven hater (I know OP doesn't admit that, but anyhow..). I will give credit to OP - but not for the predictions (as they were not something new, as to me), but for some education on Elliot Waves - it adds some calming sensation of 'scientific explanation' to the seemingly chaotic market movements. Also for showing the "bubble burst" process is gradual. What I cannot give the credits for - is for his continued attempts to turn people off from Bitcoin by claiming its value is going to the numbers where the whole existence of crypto ecosystem is rather questionable; and also for ignoring the value of real development currently being done by the whole community around Bitcoin.

EDIT: Some more predictions at that time:
https://www.ft.com/content/7020a6e4-e4e3-11e7-8b99-0191e45377ec?utm_content=buffera5c30&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
http://https://www.valuewalk.com/2017/12/the-anatomy-of-a-bubble/
https://www.thestreet.com/story/14416869/1/bitcoin-bubble-versus-dot-com-boom-tulipmania.html