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Author Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)  (Read 11050 times)
xxxx123abcxxxx
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September 09, 2018, 01:28:49 AM
 #641

Since the high of JUL-24, the characteristic of the market has changed: the waves have started to become elongated and are disregarding immediate support levels.

I've noticed one more change - the older waves (Feb-end of April) were going up fast, and going down slowly. While the last two waves were slowly creeping up and dumped down very fast. That's is especially visible on the 7-days chart.

Do you think that means something, or its just meaningless observation?

Agree with the observation.

—17-DEC to 06-FEB: The first leg of the crash, a brutal and extremely volatile sell-off with elongated down-waves.

—06-FEB to 24-JUL: A period of consolidation, which manifested in a large triangle pattern, mostly sideways in movement. The waves within this triangle produced smaller price swings as the triangle contracted; orderly waves and taking greater time to unfold.

—24-JUL to present: Now that price has broken outside of the triangle, the price swings are no longer bounded by the contracting trendlines of the triangle; and hence returning to the volatile wave behavior of extended down-waves. The volatile waves are challenging to count since they tend to be elongated, i.e. sub-dividing, and therefore often linger shortly around immediate support levels before disregarding them.

Overall, the 2018 bear market can defined as three corrective Elliott waves, labelled as an A-B-C decline, where the middle B-wave is a triangle.




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September 09, 2018, 10:36:58 AM
 #642

muf18, reality itself is unknowable to humans, you can only speak of your subjective perception of it.

But... in fact I find posts from muf18 quite useful - there is a need for more capitulation and more desperation, to shake off the ballast. Public is indeed too bullish, which suggests the bear market is far from being at its end.

So bring 'em up - all the depression, grumpiness, disappointment, negativity. Show off your version of reality. Make speculators panic. I would rather not intervene Lips sealed

I'm not a desperate nor I capitulate Cheesy (and I don't think my posts make anyone change so much perception - main observations are that reaction is anger or rebuttal towards my posts - so probably it's denial). I had the same observations on this market, when it was raising, or when it is declining. This bear market just concrete my observations, and just highlighted/demostrated the truth.

Holders have contradicting points, and try to explain and justify to themselves that crypto market is something more than gigantic pump and dump, and when demand from public and insiders is going dry, there is no support to maintain price.

Look at commodity markets - and not metals (cause this is also being manipulated), but real commodities - rice, soybean, corn, wheat etc.

There is real demand for these products, and it's not easy to manipulate - cause there is real demand, not stimulated by some entities, just big demand and supply from both sides.

That's how advanced and mature markets look like.

This doesn't make me that I'm against it. I can participate in it, or not, that's just my will, if I accept the risk, and truly understand it.

Also I can be a open-source supporter of projects, so I also help them. But my opinion on crypto markets is different than developing cryptocurrencies themselves (which I view as interesting experiment, and I help if I can).
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September 12, 2018, 12:01:50 PM
 #643

I am really disappointing. Bitcoin just dont want to lose any value anymore. Only altcoins still does. It seems alt coins are some sort of buffer that keeps Bitcoin still floating. Same as altcoins did not let Bitcoin grow that fast in early 2017 and mid 2017 same now altcoins dont let Bitcoin lose value. This should sort of prolong bear market because it just cant come to the final capitulation before altcoins are totally dried out. Altcoins seems to kill my vision of the September bottom.

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September 12, 2018, 09:46:41 PM
 #644

I am really disappointing. Bitcoin just dont want to lose any value anymore. Only altcoins still does. It seems alt coins are some sort of buffer that keeps Bitcoin still floating. Same as altcoins did not let Bitcoin grow that fast in early 2017 and mid 2017 same now altcoins dont let Bitcoin lose value. This should sort of prolong bear market because it just cant come to the final capitulation before altcoins are totally dried out. Altcoins seems to kill my vision of the September bottom.


This year it has happened many times that the altcoin begin a long descent of the quotation, anticipating the descent of Bitcoin of about 4-5 days; I have already noted this movement in which we first witness a decline in altcoin followed by the decline in bitcoin, which plunges 20% of all others.

Let's see how it evolves this weekend.

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September 12, 2018, 10:20:50 PM
 #645

I am really disappointing. Bitcoin just dont want to lose any value anymore. Only altcoins still does. It seems alt coins are some sort of buffer that keeps Bitcoin still floating. Same as altcoins did not let Bitcoin grow that fast in early 2017 and mid 2017 same now altcoins dont let Bitcoin lose value. This should sort of prolong bear market because it just cant come to the final capitulation before altcoins are totally dried out. Altcoins seems to kill my vision of the September bottom.

I do not think you should be linking bitcoin and altcoins - people own bitcoin for its own "features and risks" and people own say ethereum for its own "features and risks". But the feature and risks of each are very different.  so if you are buying and selling expecting some price relationship eg if bitcoin falls 10% ethereum will fall no more than 15% you are going to churn through a lot of your money. I think quite a few people that are into bitcoin own 95% bitcoin and 5% alts - they select 1 or 2 alts with particular features that may make it a great thing in the future. But when they have new money to buy crypto with  in many cases it will be all bitcoin even if it means lessening the % share of their portfolio in alts. So alts will always have a hard time (as they should given how many problem most have in the way they are set up etc)
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September 13, 2018, 01:18:00 AM
 #646

I am really disappointing. Bitcoin just dont want to lose any value anymore. Only altcoins still does. It seems alt coins are some sort of buffer that keeps Bitcoin still floating. Same as altcoins did not let Bitcoin grow that fast in early 2017 and mid 2017 same now altcoins dont let Bitcoin lose value. This should sort of prolong bear market because it just cant come to the final capitulation before altcoins are totally dried out. Altcoins seems to kill my vision of the September bottom.
First the ALTs are going to be nuked; and so everyone will jump ship into BTC.
This causes BTC dominance to increase.
Once everyone is all-aboard BTC, it will be hit with a torpedo.
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September 13, 2018, 02:50:26 AM
 #647

The money is consolidating in Bitcoin because the money is going back to a place of value before the market turns around. If you look at the charts from this year bitcoin is slowly leveling out at the bottom of the market ($6000). First it would hit $6k and then spike up by thousands, then it would stay longer and longer around $6000 and go up less and less. Now we're pretty much at the point where it has leveled out at $6000. Likely the next couple of months will be staying in a range at this bottom before momentum slowly builds up as Bitcoin dominates more and more of the market. As Bitcoin's strength in the market grows money will start coming in as even the slowest people out there realize Bitcoin is getting ready to enter a long bull market again for the next couple of years. By January we'll probably be in the early stage of the next long bull market, possibly back to $10k by then.

Next year as Bitcoin continues to surge the altcoin market will slowly come back as more energy comes back into crypto and people start looking to make money on top of Bitcoin again.

Bitcoin is bottoming out right now, getting ready to make a slow turn around starting this Fall. The altcoin market with this recent sharp drop is probably getting near bottoming out, at least for the altcoins that will survive to be part of the next rally. But the ones that survive probably won't start turning around until Bitcoin's upward momentum starts bringing people back in, so it will probably follow Bitcoin's turn around by a few months, so major altcoins might not really start heading upward for good again for another 6 months or so. Bitcoin very well may get back close to 80% market dominance (and a $200B marketcap) before people start putting money into altcoins again around next spring.
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September 13, 2018, 07:00:49 AM
 #648

I am really disappointing. Bitcoin just dont want to lose any value anymore. Only altcoins still does. It seems alt coins are some sort of buffer that keeps Bitcoin still floating. Same as altcoins did not let Bitcoin grow that fast in early 2017 and mid 2017 same now altcoins dont let Bitcoin lose value. This should sort of prolong bear market because it just cant come to the final capitulation before altcoins are totally dried out. Altcoins seems to kill my vision of the September bottom.
First the ALTs are going to be nuked; and so everyone will jump ship into BTC.
This causes BTC dominance to increase.
Once everyone is all-aboard BTC, it will be hit with a torpedo.


Could you tell more about your overall investment strategies? Are there coins or commodities you hold, because you believe in them? Or do you only trade waves?

And thanks again for your posts, they are refreshing alternatives to all those sneaky BTC50,000 posts.
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September 13, 2018, 12:54:43 PM
 #649

I am really disappointing. Bitcoin just dont want to lose any value anymore. Only altcoins still does. It seems alt coins are some sort of buffer that keeps Bitcoin still floating. Same as altcoins did not let Bitcoin grow that fast in early 2017 and mid 2017 same now altcoins dont let Bitcoin lose value. This should sort of prolong bear market because it just cant come to the final capitulation before altcoins are totally dried out. Altcoins seems to kill my vision of the September bottom.
First the ALTs are going to be nuked; and so everyone will jump ship into BTC.
This causes BTC dominance to increase.
Once everyone is all-aboard BTC, it will be hit with a torpedo.

This 'prophecy' sounds like something more than merely an Elliot Wave based market analysis you are supposedly doing in this thread Smiley

Who will hit it with a torpedo? Looking at your statement I would assume you believe Bitcoin drop is not natural, but some entity purposely nukes it. Thats sounds like a new vibe in your postings... Wink

EDIT: Or, thinking a bit more, maybe not so new..? Continuing to scare people off with doom predictions poured into unoffending market analysis? What could create more panic, than a picture of somebody deliberately making all crypto people run and collect in one place, just to kill them all..? A bit like this: "There is no place to hide... Run far away if you can, or you'll be killed in your last haven - in BTC trap, you dirty little crypto rat"  Grin

... this space is not for rent ...
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September 13, 2018, 07:19:04 PM
 #650

Could you tell more about your overall investment strategies? Are there coins or commodities you hold, because you believe in them? Or do you only trade waves?

And thanks again for your posts, they are refreshing alternatives to all those sneaky BTC50,000 posts.

Current investment strategy:
   —Long stocks (possible top in 2019, then 25% bear market).
   —Short commodities (possible metals low in 2022, oil top in 2020).
   —Long currencies (i.e. x/USD major pairs, US dollar bear market until 2022).
   —Short cryptocurrencies.


This 'prophecy' sounds like something more than merely an Elliot Wave based market analysis you are supposedly doing in this thread Smiley

Who will hit it with a torpedo? Looking at your statement I would assume you believe Bitcoin drop is not natural, but some entity purposely nukes it. Thats sounds like a new vibe in your postings... Wink

EDIT: Or, thinking a bit more, maybe not so new..? Continuing to scare people off with doom predictions poured into unoffending market analysis? What could create more panic, than a picture of somebody deliberately making all crypto people run and collect in one place, just to kill them all..? A bit like this: "There is no place to hide... Run far away if you can, or you'll be killed in your last haven - in BTC trap, you dirty little crypto rat"  Grin

With hardly 10,000 views of this thread, I doubt there is any influencing power!  Wink
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September 13, 2018, 07:23:45 PM
 #651

Upside may be limited to the following (BITFINEX):

@6620 : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 04-SEP to 08-SEP decline.
@6775 : 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 04-SEP to 08-SEP decline.

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September 13, 2018, 09:10:07 PM
 #652

Could you tell more about your overall investment strategies? Are there coins or commodities you hold, because you believe in them? Or do you only trade waves?

And thanks again for your posts, they are refreshing alternatives to all those sneaky BTC50,000 posts.

Current investment strategy:
   —Long stocks (possible top in 2019, then 25% bear market).
   —Short commodities (possible metals low in 2022, oil top in 2020).
   —Long currencies (i.e. x/USD major pairs, US dollar bear market until 2022).
   —Short cryptocurrencies.


This 'prophecy' sounds like something more than merely an Elliot Wave based market analysis you are supposedly doing in this thread Smiley

Who will hit it with a torpedo? Looking at your statement I would assume you believe Bitcoin drop is not natural, but some entity purposely nukes it. Thats sounds like a new vibe in your postings... Wink

EDIT: Or, thinking a bit more, maybe not so new..? Continuing to scare people off with doom predictions poured into unoffending market analysis? What could create more panic, than a picture of somebody deliberately making all crypto people run and collect in one place, just to kill them all..? A bit like this: "There is no place to hide... Run far away if you can, or you'll be killed in your last haven - in BTC trap, you dirty little crypto rat"  Grin

With hardly 10,000 views of this thread, I doubt there is any influencing power!  Wink

Well stocks are almost at the last wick of upside it seems... Don't see much upside for them (S&P and NASDAQ seems to be at parabolic move now).
And you mean US stocks only. EU are in sideways or bear market already. Asia stocks are at bear market or consolidation.

Rest I agree.
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September 15, 2018, 02:26:27 PM
 #653

I am really disappointing. Bitcoin just dont want to lose any value anymore. Only altcoins still does. It seems alt coins are some sort of buffer that keeps Bitcoin still floating. Same as altcoins did not let Bitcoin grow that fast in early 2017 and mid 2017 same now altcoins dont let Bitcoin lose value. This should sort of prolong bear market because it just cant come to the final capitulation before altcoins are totally dried out. Altcoins seems to kill my vision of the September bottom.
First the ALTs are going to be nuked; and so everyone will jump ship into BTC.
This causes BTC dominance to increase.
Once everyone is all-aboard BTC, it will be hit with a torpedo.



I appreciate your thread for the info and discussion it’s generated but protip: never go full potato on conspiracies, manipulation, and voodoo.
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September 16, 2018, 12:17:23 AM
 #654

Could you tell more about your overall investment strategies? Are there coins or commodities you hold, because you believe in them? Or do you only trade waves?

And thanks again for your posts, they are refreshing alternatives to all those sneaky BTC50,000 posts.

Current investment strategy:
   —Long stocks (possible top in 2019, then 25% bear market).
   —Short commodities (possible metals low in 2022, oil top in 2020).
   —Long currencies (i.e. x/USD major pairs, US dollar bear market until 2022).
   —Short cryptocurrencies.


Interesting... I have a side-question, most probably stupid one. Trading and markets generallywere out of the sphere of my interests, so pardon my ignorance... But your statement raised my curiosity.

You generalize *stocks*, *commodities*, *currencies*, *cryptocurrencies*... Well, I understand your view on cryptocurrencies - I assume you short everything with "crypto-" as a prefix Smiley, but what about the rest?
Are you long on all stocks and short on all commodities? Aren't different stocks behaving differently, and significantly rising when others go significantly down?
Or it makes sense to trade them as a "herd" doing the same movements at the same times?

Crypto is an ecosystem and it seems to go down/up as a whole. That's understandable as it all represents a common set of technologies and applications (to some extend; the diversity is getting much bigger, but that's different topic). But stocks..?! They represent different companies working in completely different areas of life, operating in different parts of the world. Did the world became so small and tied together, so they are also making an ecosystem..?

... this space is not for rent ...
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September 16, 2018, 05:53:20 AM
 #655

Interesting... I have a side-question, most probably stupid one. Trading and markets always were out of the sphere of my interests, so pardon my ignorance... But your statement raised my curiosity.

You generalize *stocks*, *commodities*, *currencies*, *cryptocurrencies*... Well, I understand your view on cryptocurrencies - I assume you short everything with "crypto-" as a prefix Smiley, but what about the rest?
Are you long on all stocks and short on all commodities? Aren't different stocks behaving differently, and significantly rising when others go significantly down?
Or it makes sense to trade them as a "herd" doing the same movements at the same times?

Crypto is an ecosystem and it seems to go down/up as a whole. That's understandable as it all represents a common set of technologies and applications (to some extend; the diversity is getting much bigger, but that's different topic). But stocks..?! They represent different companies working in completely different areas of life, operating in different parts of the world. Did the world became so small and tied together, so they are also making an ecosystem..?

The stock market is a significantly larger ecosystem. So yes, on an individual level, there are some stocks in a bull market, whilst others are in a bear market. Likewise, some markets can be in bull market, whilst others in different geographical area could be in a bear market.

For example, the majority of stocks in the US, i.e. DOW/S&P/NASDAQ indices are currently still in a bull market; however, it appears the German DAX is in the early stages of a bear market.

To add to the complexity, there can be nuances; for example, Facebook appears to be in the early stages of a bear market, whilst Twitter may still have further upside.

P.S. Speaking of commodities, the waves currently unfolding in Bitcoin could be developing an alternate scenario similar to commodity markets; I have a surprise soon and a lifeline for the hodlrs, stay tuned!  Wink
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September 16, 2018, 12:44:51 PM
Merited by jbreher (1)
 #656

P.S. Speaking of commodities, the waves currently unfolding in Bitcoin could be developing an alternate scenario similar to commodity markets; I have a surprise soon and a lifeline for the hodlrs, stay tuned!  Wink

We are here not going anywhere. We are comfortably relaxing and sitting  on our bags for the next bull run to happen in a year or two. Right about the time you predict that Bitcoin will stabilize under $1000 price.

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MrBitcoinP
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September 17, 2018, 09:03:06 AM
 #657

I found this thread back in early Feb and have been following it ever since.
Although i don't agree with all your predictions, a lot of it rang true at the time and changed me from a permabull to neutral. So much so, i sold my large bags of neo and omg when they weren't too far off ATH. Had i not found this i probably would have just held on blindly and i'd be rekt now, for that i thank you. Keep it up buddy.
kronos123
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September 21, 2018, 05:44:18 PM
 #658

I am really disappointing. Bitcoin just dont want to lose any value anymore. Only altcoins still does. It seems alt coins are some sort of buffer that keeps Bitcoin still floating. Same as altcoins did not let Bitcoin grow that fast in early 2017 and mid 2017 same now altcoins dont let Bitcoin lose value. This should sort of prolong bear market because it just cant come to the final capitulation before altcoins are totally dried out. Altcoins seems to kill my vision of the September bottom.
First the ALTs are going to be nuked; and so everyone will jump ship into BTC.
This causes BTC dominance to increase.
Once everyone is all-aboard BTC, it will be hit with a torpedo.



I appreciate your thread for the info and discussion it’s generated but protip: never go full potato on conspiracies, manipulation, and voodoo.


I agree with you and in fact I would advise OP author to keep this thread "clean" and in theme with Elliot waves, which is why I, and I believe many others, appreciate and follow.

If you want to talk about conspiracies, prophecies and more, I suggest opening a new thread so as not to dirty the beautiful work done in this  Wink
Thank you

xxxx123abcxxxx
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September 22, 2018, 07:47:16 AM
 #659

The decline in Bitcoin which started on 02-SEP, saw an approx 20% drop into CBOE futures expiry on 19-SEP.

Wild price action occurred during the last hour of futures expiry; the decline was abruptly terminated, and a rally has since been underway with news of delays to the Bitcoin ETFs.

Unexpected surprise price action: futures expiry has usually tended to exaggerate in the direction of the prior ongoing trend; i.e. in this case, down.

The rally thus far has now retraced half-way back of the 02-SEP decline; Fibonacci resistance levels as follows (BITFINEX):

@6765: 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 02-SEP to 19-SEP decline.
@6920: 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 02-SEP to 19-SEP decline.

Once any of aforementioned resistance levels are reached, the interrupted downtrend ought to resume towards an initial target of 5200 approx. This would complete an overall A-B-C structure which began on 24-JUL. Taking out the high of 02-SEP would suggest another structure at play.





AR_fan
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September 25, 2018, 11:37:00 AM
 #660

is this it?
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