Bitcoin will never reach $20 again

[BTC Economist]

I like keeping idiot topics like this on the front page until they are conclusively proven to be wrong. Look at lardycake, that idiot hasn't bothered following up since we eviscerated his foolish claims.

This one will fall too, just give it some time

Last Mt.Gox: 15.13

Sure, let's go sledding...
Last Mt.Gox: 14 (intraday high: 14.09)

[1714056425]

1714056425

[smoothie]

It has not been at $20 since the crash I believe.  

GO back to February when it went over $1. It took 1.75 months to go back above $1 again. What technical indicators are you looking at?

I'm not against the idea that bitcoins could go below $10 briefly. But I am of the opinion that just because it isn't profitable to mine doesn't mean the market is dead. If you know anything about anything concerning trading you will know that there are slow times and there are fast times. They oscillate.

[smoothie]

If you liquidated your position in Bitcoin, you might as well liquidate your presence on this forum and move on with your life.

I SECOND THE MOTION. MOVE ON IF YOU'RE TRULY OUT OF THE BITCOIN MARKET!

[GeniuSxBoY]

He's not trolling. I have the exact same stance.


If gox doesn't reinstate fees immediately and put forth actions to deter bots, bitcoin is going to have a MAJOR MAJOR uphill battle to climb.


Attention spans don't last 3 days, much less 14 days. There is going to be a deeeeeep decline in interest.

[Bit_Happy]

 Bitcoin will reach $20 again!
~1.5 days after it bottoms near $1.50, or 6.50 or 7.50, or 10.25.........

[imperi]

I'm waiting for it to bottom at $0.10 so that I can buy 50k Bitcoins.

[jgarzik]

This is why I have liquidated my position in Bitcoins.  There is very little upside going forward.  No forward moves of late have any traction whatsoever and demand continues to lag.  Way too little upside for such a risky proposition so my advice is to move into dollars.  Only a significant change in the economy could alter this forecast.

Bitcoin has always been a risky proposition.  Anyone who has ever thought otherwise is a fool.

"no forward moves of late" and "very little upside going forward" is clearly a troll, or a daytrader.  The sample size (timescale) is far too small to make any such prediction.

[jgarzik]

If gox doesn't reinstate fees immediately and put forth actions to deter bots, bitcoin is going to have a MAJOR MAJOR uphill battle to climb.

There is nothing wrong with bot trading.

Attention spans don't last 3 days, much less 14 days. There is going to be a deeeeeep decline in interest.

Your attention span is that short, sure.

Grown-ups take a longer view.

[error]

This is why I have liquidated my position in Bitcoins.  There is very little upside going forward.  No forward moves of late have any traction whatsoever and demand continues to lag.  Way too little upside for such a risky proposition so my advice is to move into dollars.  Only a significant change in the economy could alter this forecast.

Bitcoin has always been a risky proposition.  Anyone who has ever thought otherwise is a fool.

"no forward moves of late" and "very little upside going forward" is clearly a troll, or a daytrader.  The sample size (timescale) is far too small to make any such prediction.

We have a lot of day traders.... or we had. Many of them care nothing for Bitcoin except as a way to obtain USD.

[Oldminer]

He's not trolling. I have the exact same stance.


If gox doesn't reinstate fees immediately and put forth actions to deter bots, bitcoin is going to have a MAJOR MAJOR uphill battle to climb.


Attention spans don't last 3 days, much less 14 days. There is going to be a deeeeeep decline in interest.

Meh..there's always new people ready to join any new venture. And it wouldnt hurt to get rid of the 'riff-raff' anyway...

[Edward50]

Criticize bitcoin: troll

Speculate in the wrong way: troll

Opinion against the status quo? You bet that's a troll

  you guys. If you really think it's a troll DON'T FUCKING POST and let it fall off the page.

Best post ever. I have noticed all the crap you get if you take any stance other than bitcoin will be worth millions in a month.

If people think the bitcoin will be worth so much in the future, who the heck is going to use it as a means of exchange when it is appreciating so quickly? Or is that not even the point of bitcoin? Is it like a rare collectible?

Seems like volume is down in the markets as the bitcoin slowly stabalizes.  With the stabilization it will slowly drop in value as the make a million dollars in two months interest drops off.

[Bit_Happy]

......With the stabilization it will slowly drop in value...

I was recently ~95% convinced $14 was the new upper limit, but people keep buying and we are now slightly over 14 again.
When something is so obvious as "With the stabilization it will slowly drop in value", markets tend to surprise you and do the opposite (at least short-term)

[grod]

There's only so much second guessing and self-contrarianism you can do.  Once pricing starts behaving in such a way that obvious analysis no longer applies then it's time to step WAAAAY back and take another look at both your strategy and whatever it is you're trading.

You're looking at a market with roughly 6000 participants.  A very easily manipulated, unregulated and somewhat opaque market.  One person's changing sentiment can mean the difference between being right and being wrong short term, and daytrade time frame charting simply can't cope with that.  Plus, this is a strongly trending item -- do you adjust your charts for the long term trend?  If you don't apply trend-adjusted logarithmic smoothing you could be looking at a stable or slightly increasing pattern on a chart when in reality the price movement is down based on a long term trend.   Another reason I don't consider absolute price points of weeks or months ago as exact resistance or support levels.

I don't think the BTC market is big enough to day trade.  In swing trade time frames or longer the pricing movement is still rational and predictable.

That said, IMO the sudden transition from explosive growth in both difficulty and pricing to an effectively zero variation flatline isn't natural.  Bots have nothing to do with that, all they do is narrow the ask/bid spread.

Oh, and OP: you're wrong.  If bitcoin doesn't go to 0 it's going higher.  The long term trend has not been broken and shows no sign of weakness.

[Jack of Diamonds]

But I am of the opinion that just because it isn't profitable to mine doesn't mean the market is dead. If you know anything about anything concerning trading you will know that there are slow times and there are fast times. They oscillate.

Lack of profitability in mining means slow or totally stalled bitcoin transfers.
Without profitable mining (or someone mining even at a loss) bitcoin dies because coins can't move around.

Even traders need to deposit bitcoins or withdraw them in many cases. So they are dependent on miners as well

[Piper67]

But I am of the opinion that just because it isn't profitable to mine doesn't mean the market is dead. If you know anything about anything concerning trading you will know that there are slow times and there are fast times. They oscillate.

Lack of profitability in mining means slow or totally stalled bitcoin transfers.
Without profitable mining (or someone mining even at a loss) bitcoin dies because coins can't move around.

Even traders need to deposit bitcoins or withdraw them in many cases. So they are dependent on miners as well

And since the exchanges know this full well, my guess is that they have at least token mining operations in place so that the system will keep going, even at a loss, if (and it's a big if) all the other miners decide to throw their hands up in the air and shut down.

[grod]

And since the exchanges know this full well, my guess is that they have at least token mining operations in place so that the system will keep going, even at a loss, if (and it's a big if) all the other miners decide to throw their hands up in the air and shut down.

Bingo.  There will always be someone to mine, even out of idealism.  We have proof -- just look at namecoins.  Anyone currently mining namecoins (rather than mining bitcoins and buying namecoins) is giving away more than 30% of their processing power.  Soon they'll be giving away 70% of their processing power.  Not everyone is motivated by profit and income.

As long as there's some usefulness at all in the bitcoin network someone will mine.  Plenty of people have spare hardware and "free" power and network access.  Not everyone's cost basis is the same, and for some even $0 is enough incentive to mine.

[cbeast]

Bank cards charge substantial fees on both the consumer and the vendor. If bitcoin miners can get even a small fraction of the action that banks get, there will be miners everywhere.

[smoothie]

And since the exchanges know this full well, my guess is that they have at least token mining operations in place so that the system will keep going, even at a loss, if (and it's a big if) all the other miners decide to throw their hands up in the air and shut down.

Bingo.  There will always be someone to mine, even out of idealism.  We have proof -- just look at namecoins.  Anyone currently mining namecoins (rather than mining bitcoins and buying namecoins) is giving away more than 30% of their processing power.  Soon they'll be giving away 70% of their processing power.  Not everyone is motivated by profit and income.

As long as there's some usefulness at all in the bitcoin network someone will mine.  Plenty of people have spare hardware and "free" power and network access.  Not everyone's cost basis is the same, and for some even $0 is enough incentive to mine.

You forget that the future prices may reflect a reason for mining at a loss at the current time. Not all markets remain static and thus they fluctuate. I suspect you will see a fluctuation in the price of namecoins to one bitcoin.

Don't be too sure that anyone is giving away processing power. Those who mine namecoins are holding them for a reason. Same with bitcoin.

Also keep in mind...that early on in bitcoin the pioneers who mined not ALWAYS mined at a profit. They saw the big picture and not just 4 feet in front of their faces.

[grod]

You forget that the future prices may reflect a reason for mining at a loss at the current time. Not all markets remain static and thus they fluctuate. I suspect you will see a fluctuation in the price of namecoins to one bitcoin.

Don't be too sure that anyone is giving away processing power. Those who mine namecoins are holding them for a reason. Same with bitcoin.

Also keep in mind...that early on in bitcoin the pioneers who mined not ALWAYS mined at a profit. They saw the big picture and not just 4 feet in front of their faces.

No, the people mining namecoins simply can't do math.  If they had mined bitcoins instead and bought namecoins one of two things will have happened: they'd have wound up with MORE namecoins (30-40% more) or the price of namecoins would have reached difficulty parity with BTC.  I suspect a combination of the two.  Oh, and more people would be mining NMC because of that price parity, so NMC isn't stuck in 1-2 transaction an hour hell for over a month.

Early bitcoin pioneers didn't have the option to mine "bonuscoins" which easily converted to the exact same bitcoins but with 30-40% more output.  If they had you can bet the clever ones would have mined those instead.

You seem to confuse "going long namecoins" with "mining namecoins."  The second is a way to accomplish the first, but with a massive penalty.

[billyjoeallen]

Criticize bitcoin: troll

Speculate in the wrong way: troll

Opinion against the status quo? You bet that's a troll

  you guys. If you really think it's a troll DON'T FUCKING POST and let it fall off the page.

What, and lose the entertainment? You are like free cable, Clown.