Analysis

[Millionero]

The Analysis thread welcomes Jay's navel-gazing, triumphalist logorrhoea.

[JayJuanGee]

The Analysis thread welcomes Jay's navel-gazing, triumphalist logorrhoea.

You are not coming off as very welcoming.

 

[Millionero]

My bad.

[Wekkel]

We need more (bullish) charts 

[Andergriff]

From MasterLuc on TV

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gaVt2Z5L-Price-reverse-extrapolation-with-MACD/

For those who ask loud bullish predictions. I don't post great bullish charts with daring targets, as TV has a lot of this. I post side views that could be interesting. So.

This is what I meant few weeks ago when said "I can't ignore weekly MACD".

For first, there was a bullish hook.
For the second there is some heuristical deduction:

1. Bitcoin is bullish? Obviously yes. Candles are above BB.
2. Can the bullish Bitcoin have bearish divergence on weekly MACD? No way.
3. So if price reverse now, there would be bearish divergence on macd as macd local top would be lower than ATH top. Okay.
4. So can the price reverse now? No way.
5. So where MACD must reverse to fit into correct Bitcoin bullish picture? Well above macd ATH . See in PIC.

And now, extrapolate candles to match such macd to measure approximate location of next local top. It must be well above ATH . Well above $30k.

I saw similar picture when Bitcoin was on the way to brake its first historical top at $31.

[exstasie]

From MasterLuc on TV

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gaVt2Z5L-Price-reverse-extrapolation-with-MACD/

He posted it right before the dump.

I'm not sure I agree with his reasoning either. I would only look to the MACD histogram for divergences, not the EMAs. Plus the fast EMA has already broken the potential bearish divergence anyway.

Bitcoin will shake the trees when it wants to, that's the bottom line. An intraday double top off $19.5K (and the first lower low on the daily chart since September) seems as good of a time as any.

[marcus_of_augustus]

From MasterLuc on TV

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gaVt2Z5L-Price-reverse-extrapolation-with-MACD/

He posted it right before the dump.

I'm not sure I agree with his reasoning either. I would only look to the MACD histogram for divergences, not the EMAs. Plus the fast EMA has already broken the potential bearish divergence anyway.

Bitcoin will shake the trees when it wants to, that's the bottom line. An intraday double top off $19.5K (and the first lower low on the daily chart since September) seems as good of a time as any.

... yet here we are back at new ATH ... permabears always get seriously rekt on btc bullruns, they are vicious.

... masterluc has been riding them longer than most, above $30k sounds about right to me too.

[exstasie]

He posted it right before the dump.

I'm not sure I agree with his reasoning either. I would only look to the MACD histogram for divergences, not the EMAs. Plus the fast EMA has already broken the potential bearish divergence anyway.

Bitcoin will shake the trees when it wants to, that's the bottom line. An intraday double top off $19.5K (and the first lower low on the daily chart since September) seems as good of a time as any.

... yet here we are back at new ATH ... permabears always get seriously rekt on btc bullruns, they are vicious.

... masterluc has been riding them longer than most, above $30k sounds about right to me too.

He also tried to call the top twice on the way here.

He knows as well as anybody that Bitcoin's classic shakeouts cannot be accurately predicted before the fact.

His theory that BTCUSD can't correct on the weekly because of potential bearish MACD divergence doesn't actually apply. Both the histogram and signal lines are above their respective June 2019 peaks, so there is no potential divergence to speak of.

Like I said, Bitcoin will shake the trees when it wants to. Maybe we see $30K first. Maybe.

[marcus_of_augustus]

He also tried to call the top twice on the way here.

Like I said, Bitcoin will shake the trees when it wants to. Maybe we see $30K first. Maybe.

He's just making sure there's people in the trees when it's gets shaken ... if he was always right there would be nobody to take the other side and ... how can a trader make money like that?

[boumalo]

Who is still poor because he did not believe ?

[cAPSLOCK]

I am "fixing" this with this post... but knowing MasterLuc and his particular favorite imagery he would have liked to see this.

[kellrobinson]

I'll just drop this here.  Bitcoin's entire price history is a classic story of step response overshoot.  You don't need much imagination to picture what's coming.
MtGox and Bitstamp daily close, concatenated.  Yellow:  genesis and halvings.  Top step:  $75k
Credit goes to Masterluc for the idea of the square root trend.

[Wexlike]

Pretty arbitrary lines.

[JayJuanGee]

Pretty arbitrary lines.

Not "arbitrary"..... "maths and sciences"   

[Wind_FURY]

Pretty arbitrary lines.

Not "arbitrary"..... "maths and sciences"  

Call it "arbitary", maths and sciences with the "quotes", or even "chart-voodoo", but it does actually show that there's a pattern. Especially after the yellow lines/halvings. Did Satoshi accidentaly design a long term surging "asset"? Shower thought.

[cAPSLOCK]

Pretty arbitrary lines.

Not "arbitrary"..... "maths and sciences"  

Call it "arbitary", maths and sciences with the "quotes", or even "chart-voodoo", but it does actually show that there's a pattern. Especially after the yellow lines/halvings. Did Satoshi accidentaly design a long term surging "asset"? Shower thought.

It's a question that has been bounced around for quite a while.  Monero did an interesting tweak in making the issuance decent smooth instead of stepped.  But the repeating hype cycle definitely is an interesting idea.  On purpose?  Satoshi a genius or lucky or crazy?

On the other hand it seems it should diminish in magnitude over time as half of half of half becomes vanishingly smaller.

[kellrobinson]

Under-damped step response



https://lpsa.swarthmore.edu/Transient/TransInputs/TransStepTime.html#Case_3

There's no damper on the market, so the price overshoots.  Like an RLC circuit without enough resistance responding to a step input, or a jalopy without shock absorbers that bounces up and down like crazy when it hits a bump (halving).
Car or circuit has enough time to stop bouncing or ringing and settle down (i.e. bitcoin reverts to its longtime trend, the red line), before it gets subjected to the next shock.
With continuous block reward adjustment instead of a massive cut once every four years, maybe price would scoot more smoothly up the curve, like our proverbial shockless jalopy on a smooth road.  We wouldn't see a mega-bubble every four years like clockwork.  But we do.
The block reward step function put that green line where it is.  For some reason the last two peaks hit the line spot on.  If we get another blow-off top, it probably won't make a bullseye on the green line like the other two did (in which case price will peak somewhere between $150k and $200k).  I am expecting price at least to mount the $75k step, though.
Some people, like PlanB and Willy Woo, are projecting around $300k.

[JayJuanGee]

Pretty arbitrary lines.

Not "arbitrary"..... "maths and sciences"  

Call it "arbitary", maths and sciences with the "quotes", or even "chart-voodoo", but it does actually show that there's a pattern. Especially after the yellow lines/halvings. Did Satoshi accidentaly design a long term surging "asset"? Shower thought.

Yep.. he seems to have designed a kind of surging asset... so I am not sure if the implications of design choices was an "accident", exactly.

[edited out]

It's a question that has been bounced around for quite a while.  Monero did an interesting tweak in making the issuance decent smooth instead of stepped.  But the repeating hype cycle definitely is an interesting idea.  On purpose?  Satoshi a genius or lucky or crazy?

On the other hand it seems it should diminish in magnitude over time as half of half of half becomes vanishingly smaller.

seems dat cAPSLOCK speaks dee truth.   

[exstasie]

Call it "arbitary", maths and sciences with the "quotes", or even "chart-voodoo", but it does actually show that there's a pattern.

Traders sometimes say "the trend is your friend, until it ends." The point being that all trends do eventually end. You can only expect to ride them for so long.

In this case, I wonder if people are overestimating their ability to keep selling the top of that logarithmic channel. Everyone thinks they can sell $80K or $100K but........what if the mass adoption scenario happens? We could be looking at $500K or $1M in the next cycle if you think about it.

[explorer]

Call it "arbitary", maths and sciences with the "quotes", or even "chart-voodoo", but it does actually show that there's a pattern.

Traders sometimes say "the trend is your friend, until it ends." The point being that all trends do eventually end. You can only expect to ride them for so long.

In this case, I wonder if people are overestimating their ability to keep selling the top of that logarithmic channel. Everyone thinks they can sell $80K or $100K but........what if the mass adoption scenario happens? We could be looking at $500K or $1M in the next cycle if you think about it.

   Selling at 80k or 100k is a no brainer.  Doing that and having that be near the top, and then also buying again at the bottom of what dip may or may not come...  the complexity of those additional factors can wreck a plan damn fast.  Sell at 80k.  great. OOps, the top shot to 500k, and the crash to a spike low of 140k, back to 1000k+ ... Oops.  Think it can't happen?