Analysis

[exstasie]

MasterLuc was once the crown prince of bitcoin charts. But over the years he has wandered astray. I am not sure he understands the fundamentals that are at play in 2020.

These ones aren't that old, and were pretty amazing:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

He just needs to stick to the big picture. Primary waves, etc. Like with all analysts, zooming in too much brings inaccuracy.

I'm sure he just views these potential reversal zones (channel tops and so on) as ideas and possibilities anyway, not predictions per se.

[Wind_FURY]

When the majority enters the market, it means Bitcoin's era as a highly speculative asset is over. By that point, I think the door will be closing on this era where shitcoins can endlessly be pumped based on pure speculation and greed. Which coins survive to that point......it's impossible to say. Some probably haven't been launched yet.

It might also be the same time Bitcoin has "found" it's true price, volatility will reduce, and stabilize?

My theory is that will happen during the "laggard" phase.



When the majority is entering, it's more likely to be the final speculative bubble.

It's a shitcoin in my opinion. For how long Vitalik Buterin can keep his database running, it will not be forever.

I don't care whether it's a shitcoin. I care about where the market is going.

Bitcoin maximalists make the fundamental mistake of forgoing profits (BTC profits) in favor of talking shit from on their high horse. The market makes clear time and time again that it does not value decentralization nearly as much as you do. It's not like all money must flow to the one true decentralized coin.

Ethereum aside, there is also the possibility (however slight) that alternatives to POW eventually become viable. That could be a game changer.

Chia, it's too late, before 2017 was the right time to challenge to be a "better Bitcoin".

It's never too late........until the "laggard" phase. As long as the market still views Bitcoin as speculative, then investors are going to keep chasing after "the next Bitcoin."

Your opinion on Decred?

None yet. A couple people I respect think it's going places, but I never took the time to look into it.

Or be an early adopter in the "Silver of Bitcoin's Gold", Litecoin? It has never gotten out of top 10 in market cap, and I believe GrayScale was buying more than 100,000 coins. They'll be seeking to be "early adopters" in many other markets. Should we follow the "smart money"?

MasterLuc was once the crown prince of bitcoin charts. But over the years he has wandered astray. I am not sure he understands the fundamentals that are at play in 2020.

These ones aren't that old, and were pretty amazing:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

He just needs to stick to the big picture. Primary waves, etc. Like with all analysts, zooming in too much brings inaccuracy.

I'm sure he just views these potential reversal zones (channel tops and so on) as ideas and possibilities anyway, not predictions per se.

What he shares should be taken as sentiments, not financial advice of what price to buy, and when to sell.

[drays]

MasterLuc was once the crown prince of bitcoin charts. But over the years he has wandered astray. I am not sure he understands the fundamentals that are at play in 2020.

These ones aren't that old, and were pretty amazing:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

He just needs to stick to the big picture. Primary waves, etc. Like with all analysts, zooming in too much brings inaccuracy.

I'm sure he just views these potential reversal zones (channel tops and so on) as ideas and possibilities anyway, not predictions per se.

Exactly. For me its a rule of thumb, when looking at Masterluc's charts. If its a long-term chart showing big picture, it's definitely worth careful consideration. If its short-term one, it most possibly is going to be proven wrong in a short time. Too many of his longterm predictions went right, so one cannot just ignore that fact. And too many of his short-term charts turned to be.. just ideas he was playing with. In any case, regardless of analyst, any chart is showing potentials, basically those are just mental experiments to entertain ourselves, while waiting for the next market move

[Biodom]

Bitcoin maximalists make the fundamental mistake of forgoing profits (BTC profits) in favor of talking shit from on their high horse. The market makes clear time and time again that it does not value decentralization nearly as much as you do. It's not like all money must flow to the one true decentralized coin.

Exactly. In each major bull run, the big money was made in ... altcoins.

But in this cycle, I have yet to see a meaningful start of a bull run in the alt market. Will it be different this time (I suspect not; big boys are accumulating as we speak)?

They do, but what?
candidates:
DOT/KSM-likely
ADA-possible
Dark horses: ALGO (too many coins?), Blockstack (STX), Hedera (HBAR, also too many tokens), Theta (I have no idea why it is rampaging up)

Defi (AAVE, COMP, YFI, UNI, SNX)-one or more of those.
YFI looks interesting from the usage perspective, but too "rich" per unit. It's not a bitcoin, lol.
the rest of defi-where is the value in governance tokens?

Name your candidates...just for luls.

[exstasie]

Or be an early adopter in the "Silver of Bitcoin's Gold", Litecoin? It has never gotten out of top 10 in market cap, and I believe GrayScale was buying more than 100,000 coins. They'll be seeking to be "early adopters" in many other markets. Should we follow the "smart money"?

There's a niche for Litecoin; it's pretty entrenched. It also tends to be a painful hold however, constantly slow bleeding before eventual and short-lived but extremely strong gains.

As far as large cap coins go, I prefer ones that offer use cases Bitcoin doesn't, and especially ones that have (or will have) incentives for accumulation baked in. Ethereum ticks both boxes. DeFi, fundraising, hybrid POS......the incentives are just massive. ETH is going sky high when the hype cycle kicks back in.

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoin maximalists make the fundamental mistake of forgoing profits (BTC profits) in favor of talking shit from on their high horse. The market makes clear time and time again that it does not value decentralization nearly as much as you do. It's not like all money must flow to the one true decentralized coin.

Exactly. In each major bull run, the big money was made in ... altcoins.

But in this cycle, I have yet to see a meaningful start of a bull run in the alt market. Will it be different this time (I suspect not; big boys are accumulating as we speak)?

They do, but what?
candidates:
DOT/KSM-likely
ADA-possible
Dark horses: ALGO (too many coins?), Blockstack (STX), Hedera (HBAR, also too many tokens), Theta (I have no idea why it is rampaging up)

Defi (AAVE, COMP, YFI, UNI, SNX)-one or more of those.
YFI looks interesting from the usage perspective, but too "rich" per unit. It's not a bitcoin, lol.
the rest of defi-where is the value in governance tokens?

Name your candidates...just for luls.

I'm HODLing 100% Bitcoin, but my candidates are, Litecoin and shall I say it? It might be Bitcoin Cash. Because with Ripple losing its status as No. 3 in market cap, I believe Jihan those two coins will surge to take it, courtesy of Jihan Wu and Barry Silbert.

[600watt]

imagine it is 2020, bitcoin is at $28k and folks on bitcointalk are still doing the "altseasssssssonnnnn!!!!" shitcoinery thing. why dont you go to the stinking alt section of this forum? why is this disgrace showing up in every bitcoin thread?   

[cAPSLOCK]

imagine it is 2020, bitcoin is at $28k and folks on bitcointalk are still doing the "altseasssssssonnnnn!!!!" shitcoinery thing. why dont you go to the stinking alt section of this forum? why is this disgrace showing up in every bitcoin thread?   

A good point.  I think the issue with this is we are witnessing something different this time, and that is causing some dissonance for people who expect the same thing to happen.  It does also have some relevance for bitcoin at least from a peripheral view in that we could be seeing the first real altpocylypse.

[Wind_FURY]

imagine it is 2020, bitcoin is at $28k and folks on bitcointalk are still doing the "altseasssssssonnnnn!!!!" shitcoinery thing. why dont you go to the stinking alt section of this forum? why is this disgrace showing up in every bitcoin thread?  

FORGIVE ME old Bitcoin OG. A very dark thought came to me, and it almost consumed me. But it has passed after $30,000 did not become the new $10,000. I shall HODL, and carry the burden of only the One True Coin.

[birr]

One Coin to rule them all, One Coin to find them,
One Coin to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them

[Millionero]

new post from PentarhUdi
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zzbhCPLm-Long-term-targets-approaching/

[DieJohnny]

new post from PentarhUdi
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zzbhCPLm-Long-term-targets-approaching/

My target is a peak in December over $300k...

[JL0]

new post from PentarhUdi
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zzbhCPLm-Long-term-targets-approaching/

What you guys think about the pi cycle top indicator as a tool for predicting large corrections or the top? They will cross soon.  Maybe we will reach the $100K in short time and then correction? That would fit with Masterluc's thesis.

Cycle Top is useful to indicate when the market is very overheated. So overheated that the shorter term moving average, which is the 111 day moving average, has reached a x2 multiple of the 350 day moving average. Historically it has proved advantageous to sell Bitcoin at this time in Bitcoin's price cycles

[Mallyx]

TradingView application oftenly mislead language settings and thus sometimes in some way my English ideas go to Russian section of the site. I don't know why this happens.

However mods are very angry because this and threaten ban to me. Because I don't understand reason of such aggression to PRO account with 20k rating, I advised to them go fuck themselves literally.

So if my account disappear from TV, search me on Bitcointalk forum in speculation section, like in old good times.

Cheers.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Retun of the Jedi

Masterluc? 

[Wind_FURY]

TradingView application oftenly mislead language settings and thus sometimes in some way my English ideas go to Russian section of the site. I don't know why this happens.

However mods are very angry because this and threaten ban to me. Because I don't understand reason of such aggression to PRO account with 20k rating, I advised to them go fuck themselves literally.

So if my account disappear from TV, search me on Bitcointalk forum in speculation section, like in old good times.

Cheers.

He’ll be happy to go back, and see that his thread is still bumped to the top with quotes of his posts from TradingView. His old predictions, and analysis of Bitcoin surging to very “impossible highs” were before PlanB, and his “Stock To Flow Model”. He is the OG of Bitcoin to 6 digits.

[Andergriff]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zzbhCPLm-Long-term-targets-approaching/

Apr 3 update: realized in full, $50k retested
Apr 18 update: Almost realized, $47k reached
Apr 23 update: realized in full, $47k reached, got strong reversal reaction
Apr 26 Comment: Very strong reversal pattern on hourly, double bottom, downward channel break up. Hope this reversal will be projected on daily picture.
May 1 Comment: And we got a dodji candle on monthly and still close above BB! Fasten your belts, this bull run will go on next level with even bigger acceleration.

[JL0]

Comment: Death cross on daily coming. Plan B active.

Many people who thought they are big, broke their teeth attacking Bitcoin....

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zzbhCPLm-Long-term-targets-approaching/

[Millionero]

Masterluc thinks we're going to $37k?  Then what?

[JL0]

I have not read his post, but that would be the ~200 day moving average... let me predict from years of reading what he's written.  Maybe someone will tell me if I was right.

He would probably say that since we fell through some previous threshold based on some Russian witchcraft, or possibly moving averages plus wave theory, and that has moved the floor to the 200dMA which is ~37k and that we had better bounce off that, and that after we do it will be the next leg of the bull going up to ~80k.

I have no idea... but that is actually my own analysis, lol.

Oh... and if we do NOT bounce off the 200 day MA?  Does he say anything about that possibility?  That would be pretty nasty IMHO.  I do think his rules for piercing these things are fairly tight too... :/

He didn't say much about it but in my opinion:

Bearish for me:

1. Daily MA50 and MA100 crossing soon (Death Cross?)



2. Weekly MACD

Bullish:

1. 21WEMA acting as support and exactly closed above it.