Analysis

[bitmover]

I'm not actually sure what "narrative" you're trying to tell me. But you do you. Because from looking at this zoomed out chart, it FACTUALLY shows that Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is still intact.

It's NOT even debatable.



  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 by "intact" you mean those 4 totally different charts per cycle?
There is clearly a pattern of them being less and less similar.

If you are expecting a totally different one in the next cyle, yes i agree.
Not even Debatable. All of them are completely different.

I wouldn't even be surprised that in the next cycle or the other we wont even reach an ath

[Wind_FURY]

I'm not actually sure what "narrative" you're trying to tell me. But you do you. Because from looking at this zoomed out chart, it FACTUALLY shows that Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is still intact.

It's NOT even debatable.



  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 by "intact" you mean those 4 totally different charts per cycle?
There is clearly a pattern of them being less and less similar.

If you are expecting a totally different one in the next cyle, yes i agree.
Not even Debatable. All of them are completely different.

I wouldn't even be surprised that in the next cycle or the other we wont even reach an ath

Different charts?

 

That's LITERALLY ONE chart, ser. I'm not actually sure how you could gaslight anyone into believing that's "four different" charts.

But OK, you do you.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[cAPSLOCK]

Although you "may" be right, BUT currently, Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is STILL INTACT. Why make decisions because you "believe" that you're absolutely right and the market is wrong, or you "feel" that something different is going to happen?

That's how "investors" lose their precious capital.

Cylces are not "intact".
We had for the first time an ATH before the halving. The bear market started earlier than expected (in October).

A MINOR difference of one or two months does NOT make the Cycle broken. I would be the first person to say that the Cycle is broken IF the bear market continues throughout Q2/Q3 2027, OR if a surge to another All Time High happens this year.

In the current state of the Cycle, we might see the actual bottom in October or November.

That is a minor difference looking backwards.

If you are expecting the price to continue to grow for 4 more months and it collapses before that,  you lose money.  That is what happened last cycle

We have a saying in Brazil for this:
All the winning numbers of a winning lottery ticket looks  easy on Monday  

I'm not actually sure what "narrative" you're trying to tell me. But you do you. Because from looking at this zoomed out chart, it FACTUALLY shows that Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is still intact.

It's NOT even debatable.



  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If we boil it down to a binary reality.  And we do not define the parameters of the cycle too tightly.

But it is seemingly changing.  At least amplitude.  And we do not really have enough data for THIS cycle to be conclusive IMHO.  Not to mention that the sample size for the whole thing is 3.75.

Would you agree that for the cycle to be still valid we will need a bigger capitulation than we have seen so far?  Your image does not show that red box.

I HAVE to admit I am quite surprised it has seemingly held on this long.  I thought the institutional analysts would have it figured out and somehow counter trade it which would cause it to begin to disappear.

I also would think the effects of institutional shenanigans would overshadow anything the actual cycle forces could muster.  And indeed that may be part of what is damping the amplitude...

[bitmover]

Different charts?

That's LITERALLY ONE chart, ser. I'm not actually sure how you could gaslight anyone into believing that's "four different" charts.

But OK, you do you.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Well  there are clearly 4 different "patterns" or whatever for each cycle. This is what I called charts.

But when you see you are wrong and all cycles are different  and not "intact" you prefer to discuss English words

Ok, believe whatever you wish . It is your money.
Cycles are "intact".

[Wind_FURY]

Different charts?

That's LITERALLY ONE chart, ser. I'm not actually sure how you could gaslight anyone into believing that's "four different" charts.

But OK, you do you.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Well  there are clearly 4 different "patterns" or whatever for each cycle. This is what I called charts.

But when you see you are wrong and all cycles are different  and not "intact" you prefer to discuss English words

Ok, believe whatever you wish . It is your money.
Cycles are "intact".

Because it actually STILL is INTACT. If the next bottom of the current Bear Cycle is two to three months away from October/November this year, then I'll be the first person to say that Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle isn't intact anymore.

Let's wait, and return to this topic.

 

[Tzupy]

Latest from Bitcoin Beavers:

Here we have a weekly MA200, the lower curve of the Rainbow Chart, and, I think, the lower weekly BB. Massive support. It's not going to go any lower.
Oh, and the monthly lower Bollinger band is here... Come on, come on, who's looking for the new guy?

[Wind_FURY]

Latest from Bitcoin Beavers:

Here we have a weekly MA200, the lower curve of the Rainbow Chart, and, I think, the lower weekly BB. Massive support. It's not going to go any lower.
Oh, and the monthly lower Bollinger band is here... Come on, come on, who's looking for the new guy?

 🤔

We don't make the biggest investment mistakes because something very unexpected has happened. But we make the biggest investment mistakes because we're very sure that "something" is not going to happen.

I'll remain with the Four-Year-Cycle until it's invalidated.

[kellrobinson]

I'll stick with the 210,000 block cycle

[okorieemmanuel]

Although you "may" be right, BUT currently, Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is STILL INTACT. Why make decisions because you "believe" that you're absolutely right and the market is wrong, or you "feel" that something different is going to happen?

That's how "investors" lose their precious capital.

Cylces are not "intact".
We had for the first time an ATH before the halving. The bear market started earlier than expected (in October).

A MINOR difference of one or two months does NOT make the Cycle broken. I would be the first person to say that the Cycle is broken IF the bear market continues throughout Q2/Q3 2027, OR if a surge to another All Time High happens this year.

In the current state of the Cycle, we might see the actual bottom in October or November.

That is a minor difference looking backwards.

If you are expecting the price to continue to grow for 4 more months and it collapses before that,  you lose money.  That is what happened last cycle

We have a saying in Brazil for this:
All the winning numbers of a winning lottery ticket looks  easy on Monday  

I'm not actually sure what "narrative" you're trying to tell me. But you do you. Because from looking at this zoomed out chart, it FACTUALLY shows that Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is still intact.

It's NOT even debatable.



  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If we boil it down to a binary reality.  And we do not define the parameters of the cycle too tightly.

But it is seemingly changing.  At least amplitude.  And we do not really have enough data for THIS cycle to be conclusive IMHO.  Not to mention that the sample size for the whole thing is 3.75.

Would you agree that for the cycle to be still valid we will need a bigger capitulation than we have seen so far?  Your image does not show that red box.

I HAVE to admit I am quite surprised it has seemingly held on this long.  I thought the institutional analysts would have it figured out and somehow counter trade it which would cause it to begin to disappear.

I also would think the effects of institutional shenanigans would overshadow anything the actual cycle forces could muster.  And indeed that may be part of what is damping the amplitude...

Thank God you mentioned that this data is not complete. Else your predictions may be scary for me decipher without being sentimental. Let's add all the facts first before throwing figures on the table please.

[Wind_FURY]

Although you "may" be right, BUT currently, Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is STILL INTACT. Why make decisions because you "believe" that you're absolutely right and the market is wrong, or you "feel" that something different is going to happen?

That's how "investors" lose their precious capital.

Cylces are not "intact".
We had for the first time an ATH before the halving. The bear market started earlier than expected (in October).

A MINOR difference of one or two months does NOT make the Cycle broken. I would be the first person to say that the Cycle is broken IF the bear market continues throughout Q2/Q3 2027, OR if a surge to another All Time High happens this year.

In the current state of the Cycle, we might see the actual bottom in October or November.

That is a minor difference looking backwards.

If you are expecting the price to continue to grow for 4 more months and it collapses before that,  you lose money.  That is what happened last cycle

We have a saying in Brazil for this:
All the winning numbers of a winning lottery ticket looks  easy on Monday  

I'm not actually sure what "narrative" you're trying to tell me. But you do you. Because from looking at this zoomed out chart, it FACTUALLY shows that Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle is still intact.

It's NOT even debatable.



  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If we boil it down to a binary reality.  And we do not define the parameters of the cycle too tightly.

But it is seemingly changing.  At least amplitude.  And we do not really have enough data for THIS cycle to be conclusive IMHO.  Not to mention that the sample size for the whole thing is 3.75.

Would you agree that for the cycle to be still valid we will need a bigger capitulation than we have seen so far?  Your image does not show that red box.

I HAVE to admit I am quite surprised it has seemingly held on this long.  I thought the institutional analysts would have it figured out and somehow counter trade it which would cause it to begin to disappear.

I also would think the effects of institutional shenanigans would overshadow anything the actual cycle forces could muster.  And indeed that may be part of what is damping the amplitude...

Thank God you mentioned that this data is not complete. Else your predictions may be scary for me decipher without being sentimental. Let's add all the facts first before throwing figures on the table please.

The data is not complete because it's still being made through the completion of the Bear Cycle, which if the Four-Year-Cycle is still intact, then "the bottom" will be in October/November, 2026. IF it's NOT intact, then probably the bottom already happened OR we'll probably experience a longer Bear Cycle and lower bottom than what we'll see in October/November, no?

   ¯\_(ツ)_/¯