-- Butterfly Labs New 600GH "Mining Card" - RED FLAGS?!?!

[Vlad2Vlad]

So butterfly labs just made a surprise announcement - well, it hasn't even been announced yet which makes this that much more odd - that they're now taking orders and "upgrades" for their new 28nm, gen2 600GH "Mining Card" which costs sub $5,000, which comes at around $8 per GH which is quite amazing if they could deliver on time for once.


That's all great and fine but given BFL's history with new product releases here's some red flags which caught my eye and I want to get some input and also a roll call as to who is placing a pre-order and if it's an upgrade and if so, what unit(s) are you upgrading.


RED FLAG # 1:  They did away with PayPal for these new units and upgrades.  Why?  Is it because some customers got sick of waiting for Gen1 orders and when BFL outright refused to refund them their money they had PayPal force a refund?  To me this is a RED FLAG that BFL knows right now that they will not meet their new stated goal of shipping Gen2 Monarchs by end of 2013.



RED FLAG # 2: The timing is way off.  They're still 9 months behind on Gen1 and 14 months behind on the bigger gear, singles and mini rigs so why would you come out now and tell all these people that, on top of shipping bulk chips to compete with loyal customers who have been waiting more than 1 year, you're now also gonna ship way better and way cheaper power houses and they'll ship before you even clear the existing backlog, driving down any positive ROI the smaller units may have had.  

This makes no sense and stinks of schemes and lies.  People are now forced to upgrade but with no refund options as PayPal is gone or risk getting units which will most likely be obsolete if the difficulty jumps the way many expect to 200-300 million by end of year.

Therefore, since this announcement is so premature it's a huge RED FLAG.  Why?  Is BFL finally producing as promised?  No, their production rate is still pretty slow - they're still in 2012.

Are they trying to get the hard to ship orders and difficulty destroyer large units - the singles and mini rigs to upgrade so they can then focus on the smaller LS and Jalapeño units which would then allow then to clear the backlog by year's end?  This is the only thing that makes some sense, but is this what's going on?

Or are they scared seeing how KNC and Cointerra have gotten the jump on them with the new, much better 28nm tech and they know these guys will ship at least 2 months before them which would be devastating to their customer base and momentum, so they're lying about the ship date in order to steal future orders from these competitors, which would then make sense why there is now no more PayPal.


RED FLAG # 3:  BFL recently got subpoenaed by the Feds - is there a deeper problem here and is BFL looking to get out given they're buried under a mountain of backlogs and with new, cheaper and better competition ready to steal their customer base, and given most people now hate BFL - then perhaps BFL is looking to book as many sales as possible, with no refund options thinking that if you're gonna get sued for a few million then why not get a few million more?  As bad as BFL has been I put little weight on this option but crazier things have happened with sketchy upstarts so this is definitely an option.


and....

RED FLAG # 4:  WHY is BFL only offering one upgrade?  Their new 28nm chips, like KNC, are reportedly from ORSoC, and KNC is offering a tiered system:  100GH, 200GH and 400GH.

So why would BFL only offer just one huge and fairly expensive 600GH $4995 unit?  That's simply not good business as lots of people bought and paid for cheaper smaller units.  Are they trying to get the big rigs to upgrade or are they simply looking to get as much money locked in as possible - stealing future big orders from the incoming competitors, before they (KNC et al) have a chance to show they have a real product?


Either way, this stinks to high heaven and BFL has a long track record of lies on top of lies and jacking up prices on their loyal customers and now shipping chips in bulk before most of their customers even have their units, so without the ability to get a refund I'm not buying - I'd rather spread my risk and buy from KNC and Terracoin.  


What do you guys think?

[pikeadz]

Last hurrah before they file for bankruptcy protection.

[millsdmb]

Ponzi scheme for sure

[Vlad2Vlad]

Last hurrah before they file for bankruptcy protection.

Sadly, this is starting to smell like that.  I hope I'm wrong cause I have a bunch of orders in may 2013. I would not be one of the lucky ones although I did use PayPal.

[Vlad2Vlad]

Ponzi scheme for sure

It's starting to resemble a Ponzi scheme.  They need new orders to get the old ones out.  I'm hoping I'm not a the tail end of the Ponzi scheme.

Man this sucks.


And today I found out from the BFL chat room that BFL is in fact managed by convicted criminals.  I didn't verify this which is why I left it out of the OP but nobody objected when this was brought up so it may be true.

One this is for sure, BFL was the top dog in this sector for the last 2 years and they were behaving arrogant, rude and cruel at times and their customers are not their priority - shipping bulk chips next month proves that if their attitude towards disgruntled customers and jacking their prices by nearly double didn't.

They were behaving like a monopoly much too soon and maybe now they see with all the new competition that future profits won't be as juicy as they have been and not to mention everyone hates them.

Given Their shitty attitude and reputation towards their customers anything is possible with these guys.

[millsdmb]

Ponzi scheme for sure

It's starting to resemble a Ponzi scheme.  They need new orders to get the old ones out.  I'm hoping I'm not a the tail end of the Ponzi scheme.

Man this sucks.


And today I found out from the BFL chat room that BFL is in fact managed by convicted criminals.  I didn't verify this which is why I left it out of the OP but nobody objected when this was brought up so it may be true.

One this is for sure, BFL was the top dog in this sector for the last 2 years and they were behaving arrogant, rude and cruel at times and their customers are not their priority - shipping bulk chips next month proves that if their attitude towards disgruntled customers and jacking their prices by nearly double didn't.

They were behaving like a monopoly much too soon and maybe now they see with all the new competition that future profits won't be as juicy as they have been and not to mention everyone hates them.

Given Their shitty attitude and reputation towards their customers anything is possible with these guys.

You used paypal, have you filed a dispute with them? Have heard good things if you call them up on the phone.

[k9quaint]

This will give you some insight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jYNMKdv36w

[millsdmb]

This will give you some insight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jYNMKdv36w

haha. my youtube vid =)

[k9quaint]

This will give you some insight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jYNMKdv36w

haha. my youtube vid =)

You sir, are a shining light to humanity. 

[Ytterbium]

This is 100% to clear their order books by getting people to "upgrade" their pre-orders immediately. That way they'll be able to say they "shipped all pre-orders by september", because many of their customers will have effectively canceled their order.

I can't imagine anyone actually placing a brand new pre-order with new money.  They would have to be insane.

However, think about it - why are they doing a $4k single card with an insane 350W TDP?  

It would make far more sense to sell $1.5k cards capable of 100Gh/s and consuming only 87W.

At 87W, you could use completely standard heatsinks with no special engineering requirements. They would literally only be making PCBs.  Super-simple and easy to do. No worries about PSUs or cases.

But putting 350W in a single card is pushing the edge of what's possible engineering wise.  Their "Engineer" said they could do it because AMD was able to do it.  

But Even AMD had to delay their 6990 by 6 months because they had to re-engineer their cooling system!!!

Here's the obvious reason: They want to price this Above the cost of their current products.  That way, people will need to PAY MORE even if they are just upgrading an order.  So you have a 50Gh/s box, you upgrade to this you have to pay another $2000.

The interesting question is - what happens if you have an order over $4.6k.  You ask to upgrade.  Do you actually get a partial refund for the remainder?

If this is for real, it wouldn't surprise me if the "card" actually turns out to be multiple separate cards, ones that could have been shipped separately.  They just didn't people making small orders.

Anyway, it's obvious this is a desperate cash/order clearing move.  

They know they will ever ship everything by september, so they are trying to get people to volunteer to delay their orders/ get more cash!

[millsdmb]

This will give you some insight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jYNMKdv36w

haha. my youtube vid =)

You sir, are a shining light to humanity. 

I put it together with quotes from this very community!

[Magnate]

1) pre orders on an unproven product that hasn't even had a prototype
2) pre orders with a company who hasn't even shipped all their previous pre order from their last disaster, which came after their first disaster (FPGAs were late)
3) non refundable pre orders with a company facing legal action
4) pre orders on a flashy new product from a company who $%^&ed up the actual imaginary spec on their previous product which ended up needing WAY more power per chip and each chip delivered WAY less hash per chip due to the heat.
5) Result of 4) is money being claimed back, and far higher expenses and having to pay employees for a loooong time without actually really finishing the sales they made a year earilier

IF BFL ever deliver anything that is even 50% of what they have just started marketing I'll be EXTREMELY surprised

[Ytterbium]

Seriously, if AMD had to delay a ~350W PCIe card for 6 months due to heat issues, you seriously think BFL will be able to get it done with no problems and no delay?


If you look at their attitude as displayed ON THIS SITE, you see clearly they simply give zero fucks about actually shipping on time and seem to have an enormous amount of contempt for their customers. You think they're even going to try to get this out on time?

OTOH if you actually have a BFL order, people might end up getting out of the queue in front of you.

[eve]

You have already been Burnt Badly, Please Stay Away from Pre Orders with No Credit Card Payments and No Stocks. Don't ever Buy from this Scamsters.

[SirWizz]

Seriously, if AMD had to delay a ~350W PCIe card for 6 months due to heat issues, you seriously think BFL will be able to get it done with no problems and no delay?


If you look at their attitude as displayed ON THIS SITE, you see clearly they simply give zero fucks about actually shipping on time and seem to have an enormous amount of contempt for their customers. You think they're even going to try to get this out on time?

OTOH if you actually have a BFL order, people might end up getting out of the queue in front of you.

That's Ok, I think the queue you are referring to is actually the "Fill BFL's pockets with cash" queue. You have to be brain dead or succumb to pure, unadulterated greed in order to "trust" these guys and order from them...

[Vlad2Vlad]

This will give you some insight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jYNMKdv36w

A hahahahaaa.

Oh man, that's brilliant.

Im gonna add RED FLAG #5, that asshole Josh is MIA.  Why is that - did management wise up or is he gone cause at this point he's committing fraud.

Until now their lies were plausible but now, with components in hand and still cannot ship cause they're too cheap to hire enough labor yet they still lie about clearing the backlog (ie Josh's last estimate when he had clear view of components was to clear backlog by end of August begining of Sept) and they're not even out of 2012 yet.

I mean they can't be that incompetent - how could have been so off unless they knew they were lying just like they do now.  It's not like they had any major component shortages, these ASICS chips are old tech, 65nm, they can get lots of them pretty easily - hence the bulk chip shipping in a few weeks.

And talk about stabbing. Your customers in the back, these assholes are shipping bulk chips which will kill the ROI of their most loyal customers who have been waiting an entire year.

They have to see they're done in this sector as soon as just one viable ASICS vendor shows up and now we have not one but more like 4 respectable competitors so by the looks of it BFL may be taking one last trip to the bank.  I hope I'm wrong but there's just too many red flags with no explanation.

[roy7]

RED FLAG # 3[/u]:[/b][/i]  BFL recently got subpoenaed by the Feds

Many companies did. It isn't anything BFL-specific.

[Vlad2Vlad]

Ponzi scheme for sure

It's starting to resemble a Ponzi scheme.  They need new orders to get the old ones out.  I'm hoping I'm not a the tail end of the Ponzi scheme.

Man this sucks.


And today I found out from the BFL chat room that BFL is in fact managed by convicted criminals.  I didn't verify this which is why I left it out of the OP but nobody objected when this was brought up so it may be true.

One this is for sure, BFL was the top dog in this sector for the last 2 years and they were behaving arrogant, rude and cruel at times and their customers are not their priority - shipping bulk chips next month proves that if their attitude towards disgruntled customers and jacking their prices by nearly double didn't.

They were behaving like a monopoly much too soon and maybe now they see with all the new competition that future profits won't be as juicy as they have been and not to mention everyone hates them.

Given Their shitty attitude and reputation towards their customers anything is possible with these guys.

You used paypal, have you filed a dispute with them? Have heard good things if you call them up on the phone.

No, I want my units not my money back.  What am I supposed to do, I already wasted months on BFL, maybe they'll come through with the GEN1 orders before the Ponzi scheme crumbles.

I don't wanna get in the back of the line at the other vendors so I'm gonna wait to see what happens since I can always file a dispute with PayPal later.  

But I will definitely not give one more $Dollar to BFL until I see some change in attitude and things start making sense.

So far they've put money first and customers last.  They have one last chance I think but I doubt these guys running BFL even see it let alone care.  It's a few quick million - ship some products so you don't go to prison and file BK when too much competition pops up.

Perfectly legal.  Disgusting and unethical but legal.

[Vlad2Vlad]

This is 100% to clear their order books by getting people to "upgrade" their pre-orders immediately. That way they'll be able to say they "shipped all pre-orders by september", because many of their customers will have effectively canceled their order.

I can't imagine anyone actually placing a brand new pre-order with new money.  They would have to be insane.

However, think about it - why are they doing a $4k single card with an insane 350W TDP?  

It would make far more sense to sell $1.5k cards capable of 100Gh/s and consuming only 87W.

At 87W, you could use completely standard heatsinks with no special engineering requirements. They would literally only be making PCBs.  Super-simple and easy to do. No worries about PSUs or cases.

But putting 350W in a single card is pushing the edge of what's possible engineering wise.  Their "Engineer" said they could do it because AMD was able to do it.  

But Even AMD had to delay their 6990 by 6 months because they had to re-engineer their cooling system!!!

Here's the obvious reason: They want to price this Above the cost of their current products.  That way, people will need to PAY MORE even if they are just upgrading an order.  So you have a 50Gh/s box, you upgrade to this you have to pay another $2000.

The interesting question is - what happens if you have an order over $4.6k.  You ask to upgrade.  Do you actually get a partial refund for the remainder?

If this is for real, it wouldn't surprise me if the "card" actually turns out to be multiple separate cards, ones that could have been shipped separately.  They just didn't people making small orders.

Anyway, it's obvious this is a desperate cash/order clearing move.  

They know they will ever ship everything by september, so they are trying to get people to volunteer to delay their orders/ get more cash!

That was one of my theories and a best case scenario and one I would be ok with as it would mean that they would at least clear the smaller units soon while they're still able to make some money.

 Thanks for expanding on this and I hope you're right cause the other alternatives are all really bad news.

[Vlad2Vlad]

RED FLAG # 3[/u]:[/b][/i]  BFL recently got subpoenaed by the Feds

Many companies did. It isn't anything BFL-specific.

22 companies did but its still a possibility that needed to be mentioned because of the poor timing of this vapors are launch.

We have no idea what proof or what bookings BFL has to show congress so things may come out that nobody expected.  Given their track record one has to look and consider all possibilities.