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 Author Topic: Hi, guys, I (NAKOWA) was beaten. Lost 5k BTC in two days (Still UP).  (Read 12285 times)
allover
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In mathematics we believe.

 September 27, 2013, 09:49:54 AM

2 - The entire thing about WL pattern is mathematically false. If you were to map out distributions we will find that if house edge was 0% WLWL should occur the same as LLLL or WWWW.

in a specific timeframe you will get more LWLW than LWLL but than it changes to less LWLW and more LWLL. and so on. Nakowa got a lucky time where LWLW worked for him. but he is not able to repeat it.

EDIT: the kind of pattern is not important. it is a wager of a certain pattern (e.g. LWLW, LWLLW, LWWWW) and it will work for a certain time but not always. you cannot determine if a pattern is more lucky than other patterns but the gambler tries to identify a certain pattern during a time frame of observation. then in his mind he knows for sure this specific pattern occurs more than other patterns. the bold "W" is the sign for the higher bet (amount of money) to result a positive return. you can work also with a combination of patterns at the same time combined with your intuition and your feeling of being the master over the system is much stronger. ;-)

EDIT2: the argumentation of Nakowa is crystal clear: he complain about the decrease of the max bet because a pattern works only for a short time. during this time he needs a high max bet to get a large positive result. maybe he is very good in identification of certain patterns.

The "strategy" is irrelevant to the topic of this post.

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allover
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 September 27, 2013, 10:02:17 AM

nothing was changed except the max bet size. have faith in your skills and repeat your show again, please. but i can understand that you need high amounts to get the kick you need for your attention to be aware of patterns if they occur. I'm not joking. I can understand you. but again he did not changed some important in this short time at a live hot system.

After his being UNFAIR twice, please HELP Dooglus and his investors prove they'll never be UNFAIR again.

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dooglus
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 September 27, 2013, 10:06:39 AM

It's the very single important question. Your site recently acts normal when players win (small), but lags when players lose (large), what's happening? DDos itself cannot explain this, or, DDos attacks are helping you (which is very unlikely)?

You are seeing patterns where they don't exist.  This isn't the first time that has happened (WLWLWL).

I'm questioning here, what Doog has changed? 1) changed rules without warning players = confirmed; (UNFAIR!) 2) changed rules specifically for me = confirmed; (UNFAIR again!) 3) more importantly besides previous two, nothing else changed?

Nothing changed.  No "rules".  I reduced the maximum any single bet can win to reduce the variance in an attempt to protect the site's bankroll.  I made the change when there was very little activity on the site.  Your balance and investment were both zero at the time.

That is all.  There are no user-specific rules with the exception of users who have self-excluded from gambling.

I get it you're upset that you lost a couple of times on the site, but baseless accusations aren't going to help you.  If you have any real evidence please present it.  I've already countered all your points.  What do you think adding a delay before announcing a losing bet would achieve?  If you read about how the site's provable fairness works you'll see that there is no time element involved, so your "lag == cheating" theory is ridiculous on its face.

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allover
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In mathematics we believe.

 September 27, 2013, 10:31:21 AM

It's the very single important question. Your site recently acts normal when players win (small), but lags when players lose (large), what's happening? DDos itself cannot explain this, or, DDos attacks are helping you (which is very unlikely)?

You are seeing patterns where they don't exist.  This isn't the first time that has happened (WLWLWL).

I'm questioning here, what Doog has changed? 1) changed rules without warning players = confirmed; (UNFAIR!) 2) changed rules specifically for me = confirmed; (UNFAIR again!) 3) more importantly besides previous two, nothing else changed?

Nothing changed.  No "rules".  I reduced the maximum any single bet can win to reduce the variance in an attempt to protect the site's bankroll.  I made the change when there was very little activity on the site.  Your balance and investment were both zero at the time.

But another 1000 was waiting for confirmation, you didn't see that? you're always broadcasting my account information in the Chat room: like "4 left in the balance, 500 is coming..." (1)
And did you say something like this: "the change will protect investor from someone"? (2)

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wachtwoord
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 September 27, 2013, 10:34:48 AM

Allover, in a day (?) the change will be reversed halfway (back to 0.5%, from 0.25% where it is now) and Doog is implementing measures to allow 1% again while protecting the portion of the investor base that cannot cope with volatility.
allover
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In mathematics we believe.

 September 27, 2013, 10:39:13 AM

Allover, in a day (?) the change will be reversed halfway (back to 0.5%, from 0.25% where it is now) and Doog is implementing measures to allow 1% again while protecting the portion of the investor base that cannot cope with volatility.

The point is that he changed without warning players. I'm saying it's not fair.

As of whether he will raise it back, not relevant to this discussion.

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wachtwoord
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 September 27, 2013, 11:12:22 AM

Allover, in a day (?) the change will be reversed halfway (back to 0.5%, from 0.25% where it is now) and Doog is implementing measures to allow 1% again while protecting the portion of the investor base that cannot cope with volatility.

The point is that he changed without warning players. I'm saying it's not fair.

As of whether he will raise it back, not relevant to this discussion.

I agree it's not fair. The influence is limited though and had no influence on your win odds on any single bet.
DumbFruit
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 September 27, 2013, 12:34:34 PM

UNFAIR
I'm not sure you understand what that word means.

Unfair means that a rule or action applies to some people and not to others. In what way was the change "unfair"? Everyone is playing by the same rules.

What is even more hilarious is that the change protected you from the larger losses you almost certainly would have had.

The pendulum swung against you, and you should have stopped while you were ahead. That's on you buddy, that has nothing to do with Doog or anyone else.

By their (dumb) fruits shall ye know them indeed...
allover
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In mathematics we believe.

 September 27, 2013, 01:27:13 PM

UNFAIR
I'm not sure you understand what that word means.

Unfair means that a rule or action applies to some people and not to others. In what way was the change "unfair"? Everyone is playing by the same rules.

What is even more hilarious is that the change protected you from the larger losses you almost certainly would have had.

The pendulum swung against you, and you should have stopped while you were ahead. That's on you buddy, that has nothing to do with Doog or anyone else.

You have some points. However, the obvious thing Doog has changed is Max Profit, and the change is specifically for me, even Doog himself doesn't deny this.

Now, you know exactly what UNFAIR means?

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broolstoryco
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Enemy of the State

 September 27, 2013, 01:37:07 PM

UNFAIR
I'm not sure you understand what that word means.

Unfair means that a rule or action applies to some people and not to others. In what way was the change "unfair"? Everyone is playing by the same rules.

What is even more hilarious is that the change protected you from the larger losses you almost certainly would have had.

The pendulum swung against you, and you should have stopped while you were ahead. That's on you buddy, that has nothing to do with Doog or anyone else.

You have some points. However, the obvious thing Doog has changed is Max Profit, and the change is specifically for me, even Doog himself doesn't deny this.

Now, you know exactly what UNFAIR means?

It's simple, you play at the casino rules.
If you don't like the rules, then don't play!

You are complaining when they changed the rules while you are ahead?
How would you have felt when they changed the rules when you were behind?
Even worse I suppose.

So for you there would never have been a good moment to change the rules.

Go play at another casino and stop this nonsense.
No need for this endless discussion, you have a million dollars, go enjoy yourself!

Or he could come back to JD and show us with his strategy!
Peter R
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 September 27, 2013, 01:51:37 PM

Nakowa, look at how good you were doing before they changed the rules on you:

Perhaps the rule change is messing up your strategy some how: wait till doog increases max bet up to 0.5% (~200 BTC) later today.

There are doubters out there, but your gambling skills and bravery are inspiring lots of people too.  If you can push your curve into the RED zone on this graph, you'll have us all convinced!

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
integrity42
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 September 27, 2013, 02:20:45 PM

No.

Nakowa, keep your BTC and go play somewhere else.  SatoshiDice 1.9% edge just for you.

Get Free Airdrop Now!
allover
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In mathematics we believe.

 September 27, 2013, 02:47:11 PM

No.

Nakowa, keep your BTC and go play somewhere else.  SatoshiDice 1.9% edge just for you.

Cursing is not reasoning. Go back to school and learn, please.

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wachtwoord
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 September 27, 2013, 02:49:47 PM

No.

Nakowa, keep your BTC and go play somewhere else.  SatoshiDice 1.9% edge just for you.

Cursing is not reasoning. Go back to school and learn, please.

Don't leave, let these idiots talk
xan_The_Dragon
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I AM A DRAGON

 September 27, 2013, 03:14:31 PM

you have a gambling problem

MfFMEpgL5Ma9C2yw6iSsSX4QcbSVzjm6iK
Rampion
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 September 27, 2013, 03:28:29 PM

you have a gambling problem

Most people would kill to have a problem that leads them to win +1M usd.

We say it's luck, he says he has a winning strategy, only way to prove it is to keep playing until him or the house go busto.

horsea
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 September 27, 2013, 03:38:05 PM

you have a gambling problem

anyone here who has no problem?
integrity42
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 September 27, 2013, 03:42:53 PM

No.

Nakowa, keep your BTC and go play somewhere else.  SatoshiDice 1.9% edge just for you.

Cursing is not reasoning. Go back to school and learn, please.

Nakowa. You are a fraud.

Im am telling you right now.  Don't come back to Just-Dice.  Go play at SatoshiDice 1.9%.  Have fun.

Get Free Airdrop Now!
wachtwoord
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 September 27, 2013, 03:50:14 PM

No.

Nakowa, keep your BTC and go play somewhere else.  SatoshiDice 1.9% edge just for you.

Cursing is not reasoning. Go back to school and learn, please.

Nakowa. You are a fraud.

Im am telling you right now.  Don't come back to Just-Dice.  Go play at SatoshiDice 1.9%.  Have fun.

Could you go post in  another forum integrity42? k thnx bye
millsdmb
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 September 27, 2013, 03:52:39 PM

As you are aware, Just-Dice is under DDoS attack.  The attack is constantly ongoing.

Nice try Doog, but why it's always lagging more often when bigger bets lost?

Quite simply, it isn't.  You're imagining it.  Or if it is, it's a coincidence.  Random chance.
Psychologists call it an "observation bias"