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Author Topic: Hi, guys, I (NAKOWA) was beaten. Lost 5k BTC in two days (Still UP).  (Read 12159 times)
allover
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September 25, 2013, 05:18:04 PM
 #1

I was beaten hard today (as "percent" on JD). During the course of my play, just-dice.com's rule changed. (UPDATE: in successive two days)

1. Max profit went down to 0.25%; (CHANGED WHEN I WAS PLAYING, WHICH IS UNFAIR.)
2. (not confirmed) the house edge raised when profit is larger than 50.

(I feel) The game is completely different. I wasn't able to drag the site's profit to down -6K. I don't remember, I once did(?), but seconds later I was down dramatically. And in the end, I lost 3K, which means, with a max profit of 70, I am incapable of winning back, crystally clear.Therefore, I'm leaving JD for good, since 1) I cannot win further; 2) I've proved my points.

Allow me restate: I respect doog and his work. Doog is an upstanding guy, and his work is wonderful. What happened during last three months, is nothing personal. Once doog asked me, "You always say you respect my work, why are you trying to kill the profit of JD?" I didn't and never meant to.

IMO, a winning whale is the most effective advertisement of a casino. However, most people here would disagree. They're more happy to see a whale is hunted down, beaten hard. I played by rules, and won. (I'm still up a lot.)

From now on, I'll only talk about projects I'm involving, https://letsdice.com, for example. Hope most of you be nice to me. Thank you.

PS: About the bankroll I have, I started "gambling" on JD with 3000BTC (apart from another 4000 for investment), and never down more than 700.


UPDATED 1

Quote
02:14:27 (1) <dooglus> so the change isn't permanent.

So, can I interpret this as: the change was made specifically for me? only because I always win (bit, and legit).  I'm somehow disappointed.


UPDATE 2:

I studied my betting log of yesterday's bets, I doubt just-dice.com has changed something besides "Max Profit". I know you guys will refute me with "That's just a negative variation, the same you had in the past, that lucky positive variation."

I hope you're right. But if my doubt is true, I mean "ONLY IF", I'd warn players stay away from a casino that is designed specifically to kill whales and dolphins."

I don't want to argue, I only want to show what I doubt. I have no concrete proof, but the game is entirely different. I'm not complaining here, you all know I'm still up 11K. I would not call anyone cheater without proof (I always say, "I don't believe it" is not a valid proof.)

You all know I invested JD once, and now holding many shares of https://letsdice.com. However, the doubt is not for the competition. I know all of you can hardly believe the reason why I continuously "reaped" JD's profit (from 6k to minus recently) is to persuade Dooglus that 1% house edge is very dangerous to the casino. He didn't take my advices, which doesn't matter; but if Dooglus secretly changed algorithm (specifically for me), that's UNFAIR, and quite wrong.

Below are some of my accounts (I forgot the other two winning accounts' password)

as: nakowa, ID: 2548



as: allover, ID: 136175



as: cake, ID: 145625



as: (I forgot), ID: 150486



as: percent, ID: 153338 (the rules changed during this ID was playing.)


as: claudette, ID: 155525



In the past, even if my "luck" is lower than 100%, I won. (id: 2458, 98.33%; id: 150486, 98.22%)

But after Dooglus changed the rules, while I was playing as "percent", in the last half, I often confronted long streak of losses with large bets, only won long streak of wins with dust bets. Even though my "luck" is 100.85%, I lost very quickly. Today, my "luck" is dramatically, or distinctively low, which is 94.52%, and I lost almost within half a hour. I can only doubt something is going wrong here.

  • nakowa +4396, 86,302
  • allove, +2562, wagered +139,537
  • cake, +4440,  366,993
  • 150486, +1001, wagered 135,278
  • percent -2976 wagered 162,941
  • claudette -2000  wagered 13,927

JD is alleged "provably fair", which I sincerely want to believe. However, I doubt something changed. Since I have no concrete proof, I hope dooglus can public his algorithm (which I highly doubt has changed, specifically for me, the only winning whale on JD), and data of my recent bets, or all bets. In this way, the community can verify Doog didn't do anything wrong, and he's still an upstanding guy, respected by the community.

==========

PS: (Believe it or not, I'm not a gambler at all. I only take actions to prove something that has to be proven by actions.) If I continue to play, I'll run out of luck, and I doubt I'll be hunted down easily and quickly because of "changed" algorithm. Now that the JD's profit is a little bit under 0, I should stop prove anything further, I've done enough. JD's investors almost lost nothing, what they lost is only their "profit". I know if the profit was pushed back to positive by my loss, I'd become a joke, which I don't like to be. Smiley Therefore, I'll keep the rest of the profit forever.

UPDATE 3

Quote
Quote from: dooglus on September 26, 2013, 07:51:07 PM
Quote
Quote from: allover on September 25, 2013, 05:18:04 PM
JD is alleged "provably fair", which I sincerely want to believe. However, I doubt something changed. Since I have no concrete proof, I hope dooglus can public his algorithm (which I highly doubt has changed, specifically for me, the only winning whale on JD), and data of my recent bets, or all bets. In this way, the community can verify Doog didn't do anything wrong, and he's still an upstanding guy, respected by the community.

More than allegedly, it actually is provably fair.  Anyone can verify your first 521 bets in http://privatepaste.com/143646bf35 because the server seed is already published.  If you click 'randomize' then everyone can also verify the last 599 bets in there.  I would encourage you to verify the rolls for yourself, because otherwise you'll suspect that "the community" is lying to you about it being legit, because they hate you, or for whatever reason.  I would also encourage everyone else to do the same.  I have nothing to hide.

OK. Doog, did you read this post? (I know you must have read; and if so, you know your answer above is completely irrelevant to refute my doubt)

Provably fair and how it can be exploited by casino owners against you. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283547.0

Now you should explain to me one important thing (and this is the UGGLY part):

After you changed Max Profit, why something like this always happened: I placed a dust bet, the result is instantly returned and won, but when I placed large bet, the result lagged for a moment? And 8 out 10, the lagged results were losses.

I fully understand how "provable fair" works, and that's why I played on JD with that large amount of coins. I'll keep the rest 11K, and never play on JD again. Because I cannot trust the game anymore.

NOTE: Because I CANNOT prove YOU changed anything, though I suspect, I will not call you a cheater. That's the difference between me and you (and your fans who call me a fraud, a scam, even a thief without any proof.).

UPDATE 4

Quote
2013.09.27 14:05:38 (1) <dooglus> fizz: it's ok to cater to whales, but what if they're breaking you?

I (the whale) always play by rules (the rules you set).

Now you think I'm breaking you by the rules you set, and you fight back by changing rules (which is exactly what you did)?

Doog, you're disappointing me.

Sigh, only harsh pressure can reveal one's true character.

Quote
14:17:56 (1) <dooglus> he takes it too personally

OK. Smiley

UPDATE 5

Doog, let's do not make up reality, the change was made to protect the bankroll from the swings caused precisely by Nakowa and ONLY by Nakowa, for the simple reason he is the only one pushing max profit.

If nobody was making huge bets causing the bankroll to plummet then I wouldn't have made the change, that's true.  And nakowa was the only one doing it.

So in that sense I made the change because of nakowa.

But he sees it as a personal attack and was offended by it.  It wasn't personal.  It was for the good of the site's bankroll, not an attack on nakowa.

I doubt it makes any sense trying to explain that to him.  He thinks that the lag on the site is somehow working against him too.  He's not being rational at the moment.


Doog, let's make this more clear:

You did make the change because of me, not "in a sense". And in a sense, it IS a personal attack. I played by rules you set, and you fought back by changing rules, is that what "provable fairness" is about?

I do NOT see it as me being offended, I see it as you being UNFAIR.

You said I'm taking things personal, but in fact, it's you taking things personal:

Quote
If nobody was making huge bets causing the bankroll to plummet then I wouldn't have made the change, that's true.  And nakowa was the only one doing it.

If you're a true believer of mathematics as you alleged, you should know it's maths, or variation that causinng the bankroll to plummet, NOT me, a player who plays by rules! But you think it's me doing it, WOW! you surprised me!

Whereas you're under the great pressure, you always choose the wrong direction. Otherwise, you're a nice guy.

About the lagging, I'm clearly not the only one who got hurt. I had no proof, so I use the word "supect", and hoping you can prove yourself clear. That's all.

UPDATE 6

Doog still failed to prove he didn't change anything other than max profit.

I have offered to help you understand the proof twice now, but you fail to respond.

Which part are you having trouble understanding?  I'm quite patient and should be able to help you see how it works.

TO DOOGLUS:
I said in the previous post:
Quote
It's suspecious about lagging, not "provably fair". With the same algorithm, the game could simply ignore the previous winning result, and place another bet (win or lose, doesn't matter, equivalent to raise the house edge two folds higher), and give the player a tremendous hit, especially when betsize is large. Don't know whether I've made myself clear.

You didn't answer anything about this.

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September 25, 2013, 05:21:51 PM
 #2

why don you give out some large freebie to advertise your letsdice? since you said you won so much .
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September 25, 2013, 05:25:57 PM
 #3

I was beaten hard today (as "percent" on JD). During the course of my play, just-dice.com's rule changed.

1. Max profit went down to 0.25%; (CHANGED WHEN I WAS PLAYING, WHICH IS UNFAIR.)
2. (not confirmed) the house edge raised when profit is larger than 50.

(I feel) The game is completely different. I wasn't able to drag the site's profit to down -6K. I don't remember, I once did(?), but seconds later I was down dramatically. And in the end, I lost 3K, which means, with a max profit of 70, I am incapable of winning back, crystally clear.Therefore, I'm leaving JD for good, since 1) I cannot win further; 2) I've proved my points.

Allow me restate: I respect doog and his work. Doog is an upstanding guy, and his work is wonderful. What happened during last three months, is nothing personal. Once doog asked me, "You always say you respect my work, why are you trying to kill the profit of JD?" I didn't and never meant to.

IMO, a winning whale is the most effective advertisement of a casino. However, most people here would disagree. They're more happy to see a whale is hunting down, beaten hard. I played by rules, and won. (I'm still up a lot.)

From now on, I'll only talk about project I'm involving, https://letsdice.com, for example. Hope most of you be nice to me. Thank you.

PS: About the bankroll I have, I started "gambling" on JD with 3000BTC (apart from another 4000 for investment), and never down more than 700.

House Edge still 1% for all bets.  This was a stopgap measure.
The new plan is to raise the house edge gradually for bets with a max profit over 50BTC.  It will remain 1% for all below.  
The max bet will be raised after those changes are made
After rules were changed, Nakowa continued playing and only posts crying foul since he lost a bit.
I won't post in this thread any further, since I don't want to help you keep bumping your scam site.

To recall, this Nakowa and wannabe dice site operator stole 1300 BTC in free roll from Dooglus: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-gambler-cheats-satoshidice-competitor-just-dice-out-of-1300-btc/
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September 25, 2013, 05:26:26 PM
 #4

why don you give out some large freebie to advertise your letsdice? since you said you won so much .

I think I should not play on the site I invested. And believe it or not, I'm not a gambler, which is hard to explain, though.

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September 25, 2013, 05:37:00 PM
 #5


House Edge still 1% for all bets.  This was a stopgap measure.
The new plan is to raise the house edge gradually for bets with a max profit over 50BTC.  It will remain 1% for all below.  
The max bet will be raised after those changes are made
I won;t post in this thread any further, since I don't want to help you keep bumping your scam site.


New plan is you better find some gamblers who will play on the site as today has killed all gamblers trust in JD, IMO.

Changing the rule without warning players, is not good. I think.

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September 25, 2013, 05:40:44 PM
 #6

You aren't beaten if you just stop now.

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September 25, 2013, 05:43:53 PM
 #7

You aren't beaten if you just stop now.

Partly true. However, can't you see I proved something?

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September 25, 2013, 05:56:36 PM
 #8

Yes. You proved that neither you nor the site op understand probability. I'm rooting for you to do the smart thing and quit while you're ahead, regardless.

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September 25, 2013, 05:57:27 PM
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You aren't beaten if you just stop now.

Partly true. However, can't you see I proved something?

Sadly, I think you indeed did prove something.  That we weren't as confident in the math as we claimed to be.  We changed the rules just because you were winning; no one had convincing evidence that you ever cheated. 

Congratulations on the big wins, by the way.  The last few days must have been exhilarating!  I couldn't sleep and I wasn't even betting.

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September 25, 2013, 06:26:19 PM
 #10

You aren't beaten if you just stop now.

Partly true. However, can't you see I proved something?

Sadly, I think you indeed did prove something.  That we weren't as confident in the math as we claimed to be.  We changed the rules just because you were winning; no one had convincing evidence that you ever cheated. 

Congratulations on the big wins, by the way.  The last few days must have been exhilarating!  I couldn't sleep and I wasn't even betting.

Doog knows exactly I wasn't cheating.

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September 25, 2013, 06:39:20 PM
 #11

Yes. You proved that neither you nor the site op understand probability. I'm rooting for you to do the smart thing and quit while you're ahead, regardless.

I'm expecting doog will accept my advices: 1. raise the house edge, 2. (optional) set the limit on max profit. I've been trying to persuade him for a long time. However, it never occurs to me it would happen in this way, though.

BTW: I'm not upset or angry, I'm leaving a casino with large amount of winnings. In fact, I'm happy: I finally walked out of it.

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September 25, 2013, 09:09:16 PM
 #12

1. Max profit went down to 0.25%; (CHANGED WHEN I WAS PLAYING, WHICH IS UNFAIR.)

Doog said earlier in the chat that you weren't online when he changed it - that he changed it before he went to bed the night before. I could be wrong, though.

He changed it while your balance was 0.
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September 25, 2013, 09:33:16 PM
 #13

You aren't beaten if you just stop now.

Yes, please.

Thanks for that 0.10% + profit man!

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September 25, 2013, 11:21:12 PM
 #14

I was beaten hard today (as "percent" on JD). During the course of my play, just-dice.com's rule changed.

1. Max profit went down to 0.25%; (CHANGED WHEN I WAS PLAYING, WHICH IS UNFAIR.)
2. (not confirmed) the house edge raised when profit is larger than 50.

(I feel) The game is completely different. I wasn't able to drag the site's profit to down -6K. I don't remember, I once did(?), but seconds later I was down dramatically. And in the end, I lost 3K, which means, with a max profit of 70, I am incapable of winning back, crystally clear.Therefore, I'm leaving JD for good, since 1) I cannot win further; 2) I've proved my points.

Allow me restate: I respect doog and his work. Doog is an upstanding guy, and his work is wonderful. What happened during last three months, is nothing personal. Once doog asked me, "You always say you respect my work, why are you trying to kill the profit of JD?" I didn't and never meant to.

IMO, a winning whale is the most effective advertisement of a casino. However, most people here would disagree. They're more happy to see a whale is hunting down, beaten hard. I played by rules, and won. (I'm still up a lot.)

From now on, I'll only talk about project I'm involving, https://letsdice.com, for example. Hope most of you be nice to me. Thank you.

PS: About the bankroll I have, I started "gambling" on JD with 3000BTC (apart from another 4000 for investment), and never down more than 700.

-------

UPDATED:

Quote
02:14:27 (1) <dooglus> so the change isn't permanent.

So, can I interpret this as: the change was made specifically for me? only because I always win (bit, and legit).  I'm somehow disappointed.

"2. (optional) set the limit on max profit. I've been trying to persuade him for a long time"
We have also been pursuing this with him for sometime I'm glad if the max was lowered.

If the payout odds actually changed while you was playing and clearly unaware then one would think that is theft. Please file a complaint

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September 25, 2013, 11:39:14 PM
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Quote
02:14:27 (1) <dooglus> so the change isn't permanent.

So, can I interpret this as: the change was made specifically for me? only because I always win (bit, and legit).  I'm somehow disappointed.

Was there really any question it wasn't made specifically for you? You could take it as a compliment.
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September 26, 2013, 12:24:17 AM
 #16

I think you are right to feel targeted by the rule change but should no way view yourself as beaten.

As a (small) JD investor I did not like losing to you but don't think you were cheating and I never understood the allegations that you and dooglus were the same person.  (Though apparently that bothered him quite a bit.)

To the extent that your point was that someone who is willing to take losses and keep playing can put the major hurt on sites like Just-Dice I think you are wholly vindicated.  I joked in chat that you should play under the name "The Terminator" because you just kept going and going.  While I think your success was due to variance rather than a system or exceptional luck, it really doesn't make much difference, the several thousand bitcoins you're sitting on attests to the correctness of the net effect of your views.

I'm sorry but I really don't like the idea of let's dice where I have to be part of a multi-level marketing deal to gamble or invest, but I do wish you luck with it.
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September 26, 2013, 12:33:34 AM
 #17

I was beaten hard today (as "percent" on JD). During the course of my play, just-dice.com's rule changed.

1. Max profit went down to 0.25%; (CHANGED WHEN I WAS PLAYING, WHICH IS UNFAIR.)
2. (not confirmed) the house edge raised when profit is larger than 50.

(I feel) The game is completely different. I wasn't able to drag the site's profit to down -6K. I don't remember, I once did(?), but seconds later I was down dramatically. And in the end, I lost 3K, which means, with a max profit of 70, I am incapable of winning back, crystally clear.Therefore, I'm leaving JD for good, since 1) I cannot win further; 2) I've proved my points.

Allow me restate: I respect doog and his work. Doog is an upstanding guy, and his work is wonderful. What happened during last three months, is nothing personal. Once doog asked me, "You always say you respect my work, why are you trying to kill the profit of JD?" I didn't and never meant to.

IMO, a winning whale is the most effective advertisement of a casino. However, most people here would disagree. They're more happy to see a whale is hunting down, beaten hard. I played by rules, and won. (I'm still up a lot.)

From now on, I'll only talk about project I'm involving, https://letsdice.com, for example. Hope most of you be nice to me. Thank you.

PS: About the bankroll I have, I started "gambling" on JD with 3000BTC (apart from another 4000 for investment), and never down more than 700.

-------

UPDATED:

Quote
02:14:27 (1) <dooglus> so the change isn't permanent.

So, can I interpret this as: the change was made specifically for me? only because I always win (bit, and legit).  I'm somehow disappointed.

Well, sometimes you lose when you gamble dude.. Kinda sucks but it happens. Good luck with your LD site.
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September 26, 2013, 12:44:54 AM
 #18

I agree that changing the rules without warning was a bit unfair. However you should realize he unwillingly did you a favor: you lost 3k with 80 max bet, with 320 you would have bet 4x, with the same exact pattern most likely, and would have lost 3x4=12k.

Lowering the max bet only had the effect of slowing down your gains, so you felt like going on for much longer, eventually losing.




Quote
02:14:27 (1) <dooglus> so the change isn't permanent.

So, can I interpret this as: the change was made specifically for me? only because I always win (bit, and legit).  I'm somehow disappointed.

You shouldn't: he has the right to lower the max bet if the house is taking too much losses and cannot afford. It's his business, he must manage it properly to avoid the risk of going broken. He lowered it while you were by far on top. Had he lowered while you were losing you could have had a point.
You and you only chose to try to win more under the new rules.


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September 26, 2013, 01:07:51 AM
 #19

I agree that changing the rules without warning was a bit unfair. However you should realize he unwillingly did you a favor: you lost 3k with 80 max bet, with 320 you would have bet 4x, with the same exact pattern most likely, and would have lost 3x4=12k.

Lowering the max bet only had the effect of slowing down your gains, so you felt like going on for much longer, eventually losing.

You said if he lose and at the other side what if he could win ?
(Nothing personal)
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September 26, 2013, 01:27:46 AM
 #20

1. Max profit went down to 0.25%; (CHANGED WHEN I WAS PLAYING, WHICH IS UNFAIR.)

Doog said earlier in the chat that you weren't online when he changed it - that he changed it before he went to bed the night before. I could be wrong, though.

He changed it while your balance was 0.

No, another deposit was waiting for confirmation.

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