[HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit)

[E f f e c T]

Which part of the data exactly is 'outdated'? As far as i can see the spreadsheet largely relies on 3 numbers:
The network hashrate, which i have fixed.
Petamine's own hashrate. Which i have left untouched.
The energy investment per hashrate. According to the spreadsheet about 12.5% of the mined BTC's are spent on hosting costs. last perioid the percentage of earnings actually spent on hosting costs is about 25%. Changing this would make the prediction worse.

Other outdated factors such as the reinvestment have no real impact on the outcome. Largely due the fact that i start my calculation with twice the hashrate petamine actually owns.

This is my point. You are using false data. This is the last time I will ask you to run the actual figures instead of picking and choosing whatever satisfies your conclusion, you are missing out on so many key factors its pointless even going into them until you fix your data

I'm not trying to be insulting here, but if you actually believe your own projections and are not trying to influence the price, then please quit BTC trading. This is for your sake more than anyone else's.

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[ujka]

You have done nothing apart from draw a big X on a picture of the old projections, And a share price of 0.0094? When?

Read again:

These calcuations are done with 20% hashrate increment each time.

That is the only change i made to the document.

The share price is 0.0094 since that is the sum of all future, positive, dividends. In about a month or 3 the dividends will turn negative at which point the hardware should just be liquidated.

I'd appreciate any comments on how flawed PetaMine's forecast document is. Because it seems pretty solid to me. And everybody seems to rather insult me than providing actual feedback. The only feedback i have heard so far that was not covered with multiple insults was that it is unrealistic to expect an continued network growth of 20%. Something that turned out to be quite realistic.

Januar 2015 with 11'700'000 TH. How much electricity is needed to run this? With chips at 28nm technology using ~1J/GH?

Bitcoin has to be at $8000 by then, just to cover electricity cost.(at $0.1 per kwh)

I don't need mining then, I'll go now and buy 1BTC, and I'm good. For life! (with constant 80% increase/month, bitcoin HAS to be over $2'000'000 in 2015, even with new chips 0.3J/GH)  

And power used - around 4'000 GW. What capacity are nuclear plants? 1GW? Ah, just 4'000 nuclear power plants for bitcoin network. No problem.

Oh, no, what wikianswers says - there are only 439 nuclear reactors in the world?

[E f f e c T]

You have done nothing apart from draw a big X on a picture of the old projections, And a share price of 0.0094? When?

Read again:

These calcuations are done with 20% hashrate increment each time.

That is the only change i made to the document.

The share price is 0.0094 since that is the sum of all future, positive, dividends. In about a month or 3 the dividends will turn negative at which point the hardware should just be liquidated.

I'd appreciate any comments on how flawed PetaMine's forecast document is. Because it seems pretty solid to me. And everybody seems to rather insult me than providing actual feedback. The only feedback i have heard so far that was not covered with multiple insults was that it is unrealistic to expect an continued network growth of 20%. Something that turned out to be quite realistic.

Januar 2015 with 11'700'000 TH. How much electricity is needed to run this? With chips at 28nm technology using ~1J/GH?

Bitcoin has to be at $8000 by then, just to cover electricity cost.(at $0.1 per kwh)

I don't need mining then, I'll go now and buy 1BTC, and I'm good. For life! (with constant 80% increase/month, bitcoin HAS to be over $2'000'000 in 2015, even with new chips 0.3J/GH)  

And power used - around 4'000 GW. What capacity are nuclear plants? 1GW? Ah, just 4'000 nuclear power plants for bitcoin network. No problem.

Oh, no, what wikianswers says - there are only 439 nuclear reactors in the world?

Excellent calculations, and I love the comparison to nuclear power plants, it makes an interesting argument as to how we will keep up with the difficulty rises.

But I must say, for the next month or two we will see huge increases in difficulty as

1) a new bubble begins to form and more people invest in bitcoin mining technology
2) the release of third gen chips causes manufacturing costs to plummet
3) increasing numbers of manufactures, including the Chinese, flood the market with cheaper and more efficient hashing equipment

But yes, in the long term, 4 months+, the difficulty can't carry on increasing at the rate it is now

And also, a projection of $8000 by january isn't far fetched, some would even argue undervalued. Remember, bitcoin wasn't even a tenth of what it was a year ago, and that's even with the price fall over the past three months. It all depends on how the US gov decides to regulate

[pleiotropik]

I love exponentials... their hard physical "ceilings" always catch the riders of these rockets unawares... I can envision the moment all of the sun's output has to be plugged to the hashing network.      

[rdyoung]

I love exponentials... their hard physical "ceilings" always catch the riders of these rockets unawares... I can envision the moment all of the sun's output has to be plugged to the hashing network.      

Something else these exponential growers aren't considering is the reward halving. At the current rate of growth we will see another halving by early 2016 if not late 2015.
If the price per ghs doesn't plummet far enough and the value of fiat in USD isn't high enough we might see a correction in difficulty and network hashrate when the reward drops to 12.5.
It is also likely that the drop to 12.5 will spur a rise in price relative to supply/demand.

[ujka]

 
that calculation with electricity and nuclear power plants was from month, month and a half ago, in this thread (I copy/pasted it now). And now same discussion again. Coming in like in waves. And I bought 3 coins at Bitstamp last week (just to be on the sure side  

Edit: link there: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=310783.msg5400700#msg5400700

[altoidmintz]

Thanks for update. An update every friday works fine for me (even if I check here daily

Still, some good points, anon29426. 'Delivery ramping up' is really sweet talk - they at bitmine are still not sure when the production of rigs will even start! And that 'coming weeks' timeline is very vague.

If we look at the coins minted, PETA did manage to keep with diff last week(s), it's that btc price drop lowered our divs.

well, the major consensus is btc is probably going to stay in the 400-500 range for a while. so basically were fucked. increasing hosting costs as new machines are added, but the new machines are coming in at such a slow rate that the hosting cost aswell as the difficulty increase is going to kill us. tell me im wrong? please. im tired of following this bullshit blindly.

this prob isn't cryptX's fault, they seem professional. but bitmine are an absolute joke, and our entire business is relying on them most likely for the next couple of months.

we are so lucky the difficulty has slowed, but its starting to ramp up now.

im jumping ship as soon as i can get on my laptop

this project might be going somewhere in a few months when we actually start producing our own hardware, but its not going anywhere in the near future but downhill

please, someone, tell me im wrong. the signs are on the wall as clear as day

I could tell you you're wrong depending on your definition of "for a while." There has never been a 1 year period where bitcoin did not double in value year to year. We are looking at a price recovery to ~600 around August, ~1k around Nov a ~2200 coin by December 1. Cryptx value is psynergistic w coin price bc as coin price increases, maintenence fees, etc go to 0 bc they are nonbtc denominated.

Lastly, historically the most profitable btc investments have not been miners, they have been technology producers ie ASIC.

This is not some day trader investment, but we are fundamentally not only sound but strong for those who can keep their money in for minimum 3 months, preferably 6 or more.

[ujka]

anyone of you here know where the heck these Chinese are getting this A1 chip based rminers ? they seem to be shipping from stock, a miner of 1Th/s cost less than $3K just when Bitmine are having huge problems !!!!

what the heck is going on at Bitmine? do anyone know what is really going on ? is it a problem with getting the chip?

at bitmine thread they seem to ignore answering these important questions... so Cryptx do you know anything about this ?

Good questions!
I asked that at skyfromwell thread more than a month ago. There is a story I got as the answer. Too long to repost, so here is the link:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=482921.msg5340791#msg5340791

I didn't check there lately to see if there is an answer.

[Anotheranonlol]

Your the fool.

Ignored.

love it

[E f f e c T]

From reading previous posts you and bcmine, and just you two, have clearly been singled out as trolls and/or bot owners. I look forward to someone else's attempts at valuing this project, and not just a clear attempt to drive down the price

Oh yeah, we are /sarcasm off.

Once again NUMBERS: Reverse this number fool or give out the bounty!
770 TH in April 25 = 770.000 * 0,008 BTC (FHA cex.io price) : BTC 6180 in Share BTC 0,072

---now  180 TH * 0,011 (cex.io price) : BTC 1980 (value of hardware + hosting --cex.io charges  15% of revenu, peta charges 30% !!!!) in Share BTC 0,025

770 TH in Mai 25 = 770.000 * 0,004 (FHM cex.io price) : BTC 3080 in Share BTC 0,036

Ergo:
Petamine is giving you 4 % dividend a month so you cant compensate the fall of the GHs value by mining or investing in new hardware.

Reverse this number fool or give out the bounty noobie!
1BCmineSNdMnmXo7gjU3YzBYoter7LjXd

They should really add an age requirement for this forum.

You haven't even made sense of the issues I have with your argument, all you have done is highlight your original post in red and demand I pay you. ontop of that your reply about dividends has nothing to do with the valuation process, as the percentage is a result of the valuation and not a product. The only reinvestment value that should be included in the process is the 35% that is reinvested by CryptX each week, but I don't expect you to understand that.

I'm ignoring you as you are clearly here to troll. Either that or you are too stupid to have a valid opinion.

Your the fool.

Ignored.

love it

Thanks for your excellent peice of input. My phone autocorrects You're to your for some crazy reason. but thanks, it's always helpful to have someone correct grammar on the Internet.

[anon29426]

From reading previous posts you and bcmine, and just you two, have clearly been singled out as trolls and/or bot owners. I look forward to someone else's attempts at valuing this project, and not just a clear attempt to drive down the price

Oh yeah, we are /sarcasm off.

Once again NUMBERS: Reverse this number fool or give out the bounty!
770 TH in April 25 = 770.000 * 0,008 BTC (FHA cex.io price) : BTC 6180 in Share BTC 0,072

---now  180 TH * 0,011 (cex.io price) : BTC 1980 (value of hardware + hosting --cex.io charges  15% of revenu, peta charges 30% !!!!) in Share BTC 0,025

770 TH in Mai 25 = 770.000 * 0,004 (FHM cex.io price) : BTC 3080 in Share BTC 0,036

Ergo:
Petamine is giving you 4 % dividend a month so you cant compensate the fall of the GHs value by mining or investing in new hardware.

Reverse this number fool or give out the bounty noobie!
1BCmineSNdMnmXo7gjU3YzBYoter7LjXd

They should really add an age requirement for this forum.

You haven't even made sense of the issues I have with your argument, all you have done is highlight your original post in red and demand I pay you. ontop of that your reply about dividends has nothing to do with the valuation process, as the percentage is a result of the valuation and not a product. The only reinvestment value that should be included in the process is the 35% that is reinvested by CryptX each week, but I don't expect you to understand that.

I'm ignoring you as you are clearly here to troll. Either that or you are too stupid to have a valid opinion.

Your the fool.

Ignored.

love it

Thanks for your excellent peice of input. My phone autocorrects You're to your for some crazy reason. but thanks, it's always helpful to have someone correct grammar on the Internet.

ignoring is ALWAYS expensive, noobie!

Am I the only person who hasn't ignored you?

[anon29426]

From reading previous posts you and bcmine, and just you two, have clearly been singled out as trolls and/or bot owners. I look forward to someone else's attempts at valuing this project, and not just a clear attempt to drive down the price

Oh yeah, we are /sarcasm off.

Once again NUMBERS: Reverse this number fool or give out the bounty!
770 TH in April 25 = 770.000 * 0,008 BTC (FHA cex.io price) : BTC 6180 in Share BTC 0,072

---now  180 TH * 0,011 (cex.io price) : BTC 1980 (value of hardware + hosting --cex.io charges  15% of revenu, peta charges 30% !!!!) in Share BTC 0,025

770 TH in Mai 25 = 770.000 * 0,004 (FHM cex.io price) : BTC 3080 in Share BTC 0,036

Ergo:
Petamine is giving you 4 % dividend a month so you cant compensate the fall of the GHs value by mining or investing in new hardware.

Reverse this number fool or give out the bounty noobie!
1BCmineSNdMnmXo7gjU3YzBYoter7LjXd

They should really add an age requirement for this forum.

You haven't even made sense of the issues I have with your argument, all you have done is highlight your original post in red and demand I pay you. ontop of that your reply about dividends has nothing to do with the valuation process, as the percentage is a result of the valuation and not a product. The only reinvestment value that should be included in the process is the 35% that is reinvested by CryptX each week, but I don't expect you to understand that.

I'm ignoring you as you are clearly here to troll. Either that or you are too stupid to have a valid opinion.

Your the fool.

Ignored.

love it

Thanks for your excellent peice of input. My phone autocorrects You're to your for some crazy reason. but thanks, it's always helpful to have someone correct grammar on the Internet.

ignoring is ALWAYS expensive, noobie!

Am I the only person who hasn't ignored you?

I think we should go in your thread and start trolling, see how you like it

You cant go there trolling, because the people will ask you for facts. Facts is not trolling, but hurting and making people nervous. In the way I am anti-social by saying facts, people dont like, but I am not: see the bold.

Question: What Is 'Trolling'? Answer: Internet 'trolling' is the anti-social act of causing of interpersonal conflict and shock-value controversy online. Named for the wicked troll creatures of children's tales, trolling is purposely sowing hatred, bigotry, racism, misogyny, or just simple bickering between others. Trolls themselves are emotionally-immature users who thrive in any environment where they are allowed to make public comments, like blog sites, news sites, discussion forums, and game chat.

You have no facts though. You are a deluded little child who summarises what is wrong with the bitcoin community. I can't believe you beat a million other sperm to the egg

[Darkstone2]

This is my point. You are using false data. This is the last time I will ask you to run the actual figures instead of picking and choosing whatever satisfies your conclusion,

I use data that is far more positive that i believe will be the case, and now i'm 'picking and choosing whatever satisfies my conclusion' ? I strongly belive that the 20% network growth is about right, i gave you calculations with 10%. Petamine's current hashrate is 200. I gave you calculations with 400. For the record, your bounty was based on proving that the current share price is overvalued. Not at being exactly right.

I'm giving you one more prediction: an network hashrate increase of 10%, petamine with 700TH/s under it's control next monday, and 0% of the payouts to reinvestment. If all that happens, the shares are still overpriced (by about 40%, not included liquidating the company).

you are missing out on so many key factors its pointless even going into them until you fix your data

I'm missing out on so many key factors...

I've said this before, the last time i made predictions, people called me a fool, insulted me. I asked for their arguments. The only one i got was that my network hashrate prediction was wrong. Now one month later, it seems that i was quite right.

I'm missing out many key factors? Very well. Then show me the evidence, or give me the bounty. For the record, i am much more interested in the evidence than the bounty. I would have defended the same point if there was no bounty at all.

[Mummaslittlebear]

Why is the yield of this project @ 60% but the share price is falling?  

Is cryptX a scammer? It doesn't make any sense

I want to invest as this seems like a great project, but I just don't see why people keep selling. I heard AM at its best was only at 30%

Can someone please respond? This seems too good to be true and I know when that happens it probably is?

[ujka]

Why is the yield of this project @ 60% but the share price is falling?  

Is cryptX a scammer? It doesn't make any sense

I want to invest as this seems like a great project, but I just don't see why people keep selling. I heard AM at its best was only at 30%

Can someone please respond? This seems too good to be true and I know when that happens it probably is?

Very short answer: bitmine.ch is late in delivering hardware, so PETA project is late in deployment, BTC price is falling, so our dividends are not growing (because of electricity and maintance cost going up, in BTC).

Comparison with AM? My opinion is that ppl had/have confidence friedcat will deliver, on time. Also, AM was making his own ASICs (chips and miners), PETA depends on (undependable) manufacturers. We are all hoping, deployment will be faster when PETA project starts producing/assembling own hardware (in coming weeks, CryptX said).

Ah, wasn't so short answer  

[Mummaslittlebear]

Why is the yield of this project @ 60% but the share price is falling?  

Is cryptX a scammer? It doesn't make any sense

I want to invest as this seems like a great project, but I just don't see why people keep selling. I heard AM at its best was only at 30%

Can someone please respond? This seems too good to be true and I know when that happens it probably is?

Very short answer: bitmine.ch is late in delivering hardware, so PETA project is late in deployment, BTC price is falling, so our dividends are not growing (because of electricity and maintance cost going up, in BTC).

But even if the dividends stay the same, shouldn't the share price be @ 0.1?

I understand bitmine is delivering slow but are things really that bad? dont you only need 20 units a week to keep up with the difficulty??

Are they delivering less than 20 units a week?? Sorry for all the questions

[rdyoung]

Why is the yield of this project @ 60% but the share price is falling?  

Is cryptX a scammer? It doesn't make any sense

I want to invest as this seems like a great project, but I just don't see why people keep selling. I heard AM at its best was only at 30%

Can someone please respond? This seems too good to be true and I know when that happens it probably is?

Very short answer: bitmine.ch is late in delivering hardware, so PETA project is late in deployment, BTC price is falling, so our dividends are not growing (because of electricity and maintance cost going up, in BTC).

Comparison with AM? My opinion is that ppl had/have confidence friedcat will deliver, on time. Also, AM was making his own ASICs (chips and miners), PETA depends on (undependable) manufacturers. We are all hoping, deployment will be faster when PETA project starts producing/assembling own hardware (in coming weeks, CryptX said).

Ah, wasn't so short answer  

In one of the updates on havelock they state they have a design that fits 500ths that can be brought on relatively quickly.
I would bet that once they have a decent flow of PCBs they should be able to ramp up the hashrate quite a bit faster than we see at the moment.

Mummaslittlebear: The annual yield is an estimate based on the current price of shares, right now its at 62%, if the share price doubles then the annual yield would be 31% and if it dropped in half it would be 124%. The yield is simple math, cryptx can't game those #s.

[mikemikemike]

Why is the yield of this project @ 60% but the share price is falling?  

Is cryptX a scammer? It doesn't make any sense

I want to invest as this seems like a great project, but I just don't see why people keep selling. I heard AM at its best was only at 30%

Can someone please respond? This seems too good to be true and I know when that happens it probably is?

Very short answer: bitmine.ch is late in delivering hardware, so PETA project is late in deployment, BTC price is falling, so our dividends are not growing (because of electricity and maintance cost going up, in BTC).

But even if the dividends stay the same, shouldn't the share price be @ 0.1?

I understand bitmine is delivering slow but are things really that bad? dont you only need 20 units a week to keep up with the difficulty??

Are they delivering less than 20 units a week?? Sorry for all the questions

There is allot of negative sentiment towards this project due mainly to a few kids who are given bitcointalk accounts as Christmas presents from their mums and dads. Read the whole thing from start to finish, I somewhat regret selling all my shares

[rdyoung]

Why is the yield of this project @ 60% but the share price is falling?  

Is cryptX a scammer? It doesn't make any sense

I want to invest as this seems like a great project, but I just don't see why people keep selling. I heard AM at its best was only at 30%

Can someone please respond? This seems too good to be true and I know when that happens it probably is?

Very short answer: bitmine.ch is late in delivering hardware, so PETA project is late in deployment, BTC price is falling, so our dividends are not growing (because of electricity and maintance cost going up, in BTC).

But even if the dividends stay the same, shouldn't the share price be @ 0.1?

I understand bitmine is delivering slow but are things really that bad? dont you only need 20 units a week to keep up with the difficulty??

Are they delivering less than 20 units a week?? Sorry for all the questions

Prices of stocks/commodities/etc are based on supply/demand.
The reason some people are concerned is that the difficulty has been going up at an insane rate, couple that with the delays from cointerra/bitmine and you have a situation where the mine is not producing what was expected when people bought shares.
The mine is currently around 180ths, difficulty just jumped 22% to keep even with difficulty they would have to bring on 37ths give or take to keep the dividends on par with friday.
Everyone needs to cooldown, we are only 45ths short of the original deployment plan, the remaining 500ths is the custom hardware they are working on.

[ujka]

@Mummaslittlebear
Can't (don't know) answer to all that!  
Here is past deployment:

Code:

date		Th/s	difficulty	PETA%	new	change%
6.3.2014	64	3 815 723 799	0,2343		
11.3.2014	78	3 815 723 799	0,2856	14	21,88
17.3.2014	108	4 250 217 920	0,3550	30	38,46
18.3.2014	120	4 250 217 920	0,3944	12	11,11
24.3.2014	138	4 250 217 920	0,4536	18	15,00
25.3.2014	152	5 006 860 589	0,4241	14	10,14
1.4.2014	173	5 006 860 589	0,4827	21	13,82

('new' column means Th/s added at that date)
So far, PETA project managed to keep with difficulty (and more), but ppl want more. And faster  

Edit
Mon (or Tue) there comes new hardware from China (18Th), and bitmine is promising to start the production of Rigs. PETA has 165 units. (All should have been mining by this week, if bitmine delivered on time!)