[HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit)

[Savaron]

if cryptx steps in with some sort of ground-breaking news...

Like what..

Adding ~25% to the mining power would be a great start..

[Puppet]

[Adding ~25% to the mining power would be a great start..

And who would pay for that? Santa ?Even if he does, it will do nothing more than compensate for one single difficulty adjustment or stretch dividends by ~10 days.  It changes nothing fundamentally and of course, its not gonna happen.

[nwfella]

He could certainly at least throw a bone by lowering hosting fee's (yes I'll keep harping this point) but that's about as likely as Santa delivering 25% more hashing power out of thin air.  This really bums me out I have to say.

[altoidmintz]

Just me or is Havelock buggin...?

[Puppet]

[nwfella]

Just me or is Havelock buggin...?

Working here...for now.

Edit: not working anymore :/

[Puppet]

He could certainly at least throw a bone by lowering hosting fee's (yes I'll keep harping this point)

Lets assume he does. Lets say he cuts his fees to 50 BTC per week for some reason. Then what? After the next adjustment due in less than 2 days, you would mine  240 BTC per week  - 50 BTC fee / 2 =  95  BTC
95 / 77492 = 0,001225 BTC/ share and that will still be the highest dividend you'll ever see again. Even assuming my hopelessly optimistic <7% per week network growth, the sum of all divs would not exceed 0.015 BTC and if you include naively optimistic reinvestment, ~0.017.

If you assume the fee constant, and apply slightly less idiotic low difficulty growth assumptions, this is what it reality looks more like:



Difficulty assumptions used for the above:



Whoever is still buying this at > 0.02 BTC/share is plain delusional and whoever is buying this above 0.01 at the very least extremely optimistic.

[helon33]

https://i.imgur.com/lhUdKSJ.png

Petamine halting operations and selling all equipment due to in inprofitability?

[abdullahadam]

Or switching to p2pool

[nwfella]

Or switching to p2pool

This would be my guess.

Sheesh...can't even dump my shares at this price...guess I'm not the only one waking up to the grim reality.  Looks like your words are being heard mister Puppet.

[Puppet]

Or switching to p2pool

I would assume so, even though Im not seeing much happening here:

http://pool.petamine.co:9332/static/

At least not yet.

[abdullahadam]

Well the vote had a 3rd option - switch to another pool (btcguild, eligius, etc.)

[altoidmintz]

Or switching to p2pool

This would be my guess.

Sheesh...can't even dump my shares at this price...guess I'm not the only one waking up to the grim reality.  Looks like your words are being heard mister Puppet.

Can't dump my shares bc Havelock malfunctioning...says I don't have any shares to sell

[MonkeyBear68]

Based on the current decline in weekly dividend the loan will indeed be paid off. The network seems to be increasing at about 11% every week on average. This means that every week the dividend will be adjusted by a factor of 0.9 (1/1.11) and also the amount paid to the loan will by adjusted by a factor of 0.9. This gives the following table of projected total available for dividends or repayment each week:

                                     Total
                                     Weekly
                                     Dividend
                                     (50/50)    Remaining Loan/Reinvestment Sum
June 27 110.729 * 0.9 = 99.65    (427.62)
July 4      99.65 * 0.9 = 89.6       (327.97)
July 11    89.6 * 0.9 = 80.7         (238.37)
July 18    80.7 * 0.9 = 72.6         (157.67)
July 25    72.6 * 0.9 = 65.3         (85.07)
Aug   1    65.3 * 0.9 = 58.8         (19.77)
Aug 8      58.9 * 0.9 = 53.0           33.23
Aug 15                        47.6           80.83
Aug 22                        42.8         123.63
Aug 29                        38.6         162.23
Sept  5                        34.7         196.93
Sept  12                      31.2         228.13
Sept  19                      28.1         256.23
Sept  26                      25.3         281.53
Oct     3                       22.7        304.23
Oct   10                       20.5        324.73
Oct   17                       18.4        343.13
Oct   24                       16.6        359.73
Oct   31                       14.9        374.63
Nov    7                       13.4        388.03
Nov  14                       12.1        400.13
Nov  21                       10.9        411.03
Nov  28                         9.8        420.83
Dec    5                         8.8        429.63
Dec  12                         7.9        437.53
Dec  19                         7.1        444.63
Dec  26                         6.4        451.03
Jan    2 2015                 5.7        456.73


Based on the above I believe PETA could indeed be profitable if we simply adjusted the Dividend/Reinvestment ratio to 95/5. That is 95% reinvestment and 5% for dividends. The weekly per-share dividend would immediately drop to 1/10 what it is now, but that would be sustainable indefinitely once the loan is paid off (by July 18 in this new scenario). This basically will enable double the amount for re-investment to build up and we could indeed keep up with network difficultly.

DON'T BE GREEDY PETA SHAREHOLDERS. We need the funds to re-invest and the loan needs to be paid back ASAP.

Personally I own hundreds of shares and would like this project to succeed. If we did adopt a 95/5 strategy this means the weekly dividend should stabilize at around 0.000075 per share sometime near the end of August as we quickly build up re-investment funds. At a price per share of 0.035 this would provide around 10% annual dividends forever as PETA would indeed keep up with difficulty. With this 95/5 strategy, if we more than offset difficulty increases then the dividend would increase naturally in a sustainable manner through our excess capacity resulting in our % of network share increasing through time.

What do others think about this strategy?

[abdullahadam]

As long as you are okay with the short term tanking of the price.

By the way, how can we get cryptx involved in this discussion?

[hephaist0s]

0.00142891 dividend received, which at this moment's share price of .03 BTC is a 4.76% return this week, or a 247% return annually.

[Puppet]

Based on the current decline in weekly dividend the loan will indeed be paid off. The network seems to be increasing at about 11% every week on average. This means that every week the dividend will be adjusted by a factor of 0.9 (1/1.11) and also the amount paid to the loan will by adjusted by a factor of 0.9.

Wrong. You forget that hosting fees do not drop with difficulty and therefore dividends will drop a lot faster than difficulty grows (and reach zero in just a few months).

[Puppet]

0.00142891 dividend received, which at this moment's share price of .03 BTC is a 4.76% return this week, or a 247% return annually.

ROFL.. sure. Assuming difficulty will remain constant from today on.

[NotLambchop]

...
Based on the above I believe PETA could indeed be profitable if we simply adjusted the Dividend/Reinvestment ratio to 95/5. That is 95% reinvestment and 5% for dividends...

Just curious, why 95%, why not 99%?  Or 100%?  Or maybe just chip in and send Cryptx the whole loan with a bonus for "lending" it to you

@hephaist0s:  You realize the harder the shares tank, the higher the "return," right?

[MonkeyBear68]

As long as you are okay with the short term tanking of the price.

By the way, how can we get cryptx involved in this discussion?

I am fine with short term tanking. I believe what is wrong with BTC miners (shareholders) is they expect unrealistic dividends for a quick buck. We are simply cannibalizing our own project to the point were it will indeed become unsustainable. A 95/5 strategy if successful will provide a sustainable (although much lower weekly dividend).

If 95/5 is not successful, then 99/1 would provide a 2% annual yield. It simply comes down to a question of how low will a SUSTAINABLE yield go before new BTC mining projects decide it is not worth it to hop on the mining bandwagon. Puppet is correct, the hosting fees and electricity costs also come into play in these equations. If the price of Bitcoin goes up it will help in these regards. One analyst I follow called Enky expects to see BTC around $3000 by the end of the year. Search on "Bitcoin Enky" to read his blog.