Puppet
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Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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June 27, 2014, 08:11:56 PM |
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I am fine with short term tanking. I believe what is wrong with BTC miners (shareholders) is they expect unrealistic dividends for a quick buck. We are simply cannibalizing our own project to the point were it will indeed become unsustainable. A 95/5 strategy if successful will provide a sustainable (although much lower weekly dividend).
Reality check. These where crypx' projection at the IPO: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjI5bgsiFJAidHNCdDBqOTV2Zmt6ZW9PbWdvZDV1M3c#gid=0By his estimate, the network would by this date be at 10PH. In reality its 125-130PH. Are you sure this is the guy you want to give your dividends, ie bitcoins to to '"re"invest them for you? Are you sure you want him to buy hashrate with your money so he can charge $2000/TH/year in hosting fees? THink for a second. Whats done is done, there is no turning back. All thats left is a bit of dividends for a few more months, and you suggest ensuring even that gets thrown away. |
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"There should not be any signed int. If you've found a signed int
somewhere, please tell me (within the next 25 years please) and I'll
change it to unsigned int." -- Satoshi
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Puppet
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Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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June 27, 2014, 08:13:45 PM |
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One analyst I follow called Enky expects to see BTC around $3000 by the end of the year.
And if you believe that, would you rather have bitcoins or cryptx shares? |
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MonkeyBear68
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June 27, 2014, 08:17:03 PM |
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Based on the above I believe PETA could indeed be profitable if we simply adjusted the Dividend/Reinvestment ratio to 95/5. That is 95% reinvestment and 5% for dividends... Just curious, why 95%, why not 99%? Or 100%? Or maybe just chip in and send Cryptx the whole loan with a bonus for "lending" it to you  @hephaist0s: You realize the harder the shares tank, the higher the "return," right? HA HA - We definitely do not need another loan. It simply comes down to a question of how low will a SUSTAINABLE yield go before new BTC mining projects decide it is not worth it to hop on the mining bandwagon. Theoretically it will come down to the most efficient chips, mining with the cheapest electricity, and with the most efficient hosting (lowest cost). The only mines that will ultimately be sustainable and profitable will have these factors in their favor. |
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NotLambchop
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June 27, 2014, 08:27:08 PM
Last edit: June 27, 2014, 08:42:42 PM by NotLambchop |
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HA HA - We definitely do not need another loan. It simply comes down to a question of how low will a SUSTAINABLE yield go before new BTC mining projects decide it is not worth it to hop on the mining bandwagon... The problem's that choice [jumping on the bandwagon] has already been made a long time ago, when chip that will be made within the next quarter were being designed. These chips are now taped out, NRE paid for, sunk costs sunk, foundry orders and production capacities lined up. Turning back now is no more of an option than changing your mind at 59th floor. After jumping out of the 60th floor window. TL:DR: The power that will add to the hashrate will add to the hashrate no matter what, it's in the pipeline. ASICs can't be repurposed to do anything other than mine. They'll be sold, at a loss if need be. After that they mine as long as there's a penny profit in it. After that--landfill. And also: ฿0.03101000  |
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Puppet
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June 27, 2014, 08:51:56 PM |
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TL:DR: The power that will add to the hashrate will add to the hashrate no matter what, it's in the pipeline.
You make it sound as if asic vendors would cancel their production if they could. Nothing could be further from the truth, we are still very far away from the point where asic vendors can not produce hardware that has an excellent ROI for them, regardless if thats achieved by selling with huge margins or by mining in their cheap electricity mega farms. At current BTC price, for most big players, this point wont be reached before the network is on the order of 500-1000PH. Thats where the "pipeline" may become an issue. Right now, its still very much a full throttle race. |
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NotLambchop
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June 27, 2014, 09:04:15 PM |
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@Puppet: I'm simply pointing out that the supply/demand feedback loop that usually controls the supply has a huge time lag in it. The bets that dictate the hashrate increase in the near future were made a long time ago, and no choices made now could significantly change the amount of hashrate going online in the next few month. That's all.
As far as profitability goes, HashFast's bankruptcy and weird ASICMINER rumors at least hint that it's possible for ASIC makers to lose money. I don't really know.
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nwfella
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Activity: 1582
Merit: 1000
Well hello there!
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June 27, 2014, 09:15:25 PM |
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"Straight back to 0.022 we are heading!" -yoda
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¯¯̿̿¯̿̿'̿̿̿̿̿̿̿'̿̿'̿̿̿̿̿'̿̿̿)͇̿̿)̿̿̿̿ '̿̿̿̿̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪̀●́)=o/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ ̿̿
Gimme the crypto!!
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NotLambchop
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June 27, 2014, 09:39:47 PM |
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Yeah. ฿0.02500025. Heady times.  |
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NotLambchop
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June 27, 2014, 10:16:26 PM |
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Sirs! The moonshot has been postponed.Your ticket stub may be redeemed for a consolatory doughnut.
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ChevaL
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June 27, 2014, 10:32:18 PM |
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Alright, I dont have the courage or the patience to trade on the gaps anymore. This was another interesting adventure and I am leaving Havelock today to explore other parts of the bitcoin trading world.
Thanks to everyone who to care of the FUD and made profits possible.
And remember, there is always a way to win even if everyone else is losing.
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tianrui81317
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June 27, 2014, 10:33:20 PM |
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hey, I don't understand why it tanks every day. I own some shares but feel unhappy these days.
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Puppet
Legendary
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Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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June 27, 2014, 10:51:28 PM |
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Not sure what you are saying. You just calculated a total return of 0.011 which is in line with the optimistic estimates Ive been making for some time. What that means is that a 0.011 BTC share price would seem reasonable (though that assumes a rapid deceleration of network growth. We may well hit 7% or lower, but not likely in the next few weeks which matter most). Its still trading around 0.03. The bubble is deflating, it hasnt popped yet. |
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Puppet
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Merit: 1040
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June 27, 2014, 11:00:16 PM |
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@Puppet: I'm simply pointing out that the supply/demand feedback loop that usually controls the supply has a huge time lag in it. The bets that dictate the hashrate increase in the near future were made a long time ago, and no choices made now could significantly change the amount of hashrate going online in the next few month. That's all.
As far as profitability goes, HashFast's bankruptcy and weird ASICMINER rumors at least hint that it's possible for ASIC makers to lose money. I don't really know.
HF is a case of gross mismanagement and under capitalization. They are sitting on a huge pile of chips (60K or something? If I remember that right, thats >40PH) but they dont have the money for the PCBs and the rest. AM, I wouldnt worry. The rumor that they are selling at cost is most likely a misunderstanding, if not deliberate misinformation, and is about AM delivering chips to franchising partners in return for mining revenue. |
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Puppet
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June 27, 2014, 11:03:04 PM |
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hey, I don't understand why it tanks every day. I own some shares but feel unhappy these days.
See this chart: https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate? Your dividend is the reciprocal of that curve. In fact,its even worse than that. The price is tanking because some people are finally doing some math and finding out what this is really worth. |
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nwfella
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Activity: 1582
Merit: 1000
Well hello there!
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June 27, 2014, 11:34:01 PM |
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This ship is sinking fast!
10:1 tell's me I'm not going to love the cryptx post much despite the moving to p2pool (which I think ultimately is a good thing).
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¯¯̿̿¯̿̿'̿̿̿̿̿̿̿'̿̿'̿̿̿̿̿'̿̿̿)͇̿̿)̿̿̿̿ '̿̿̿̿̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪̀●́)=o/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ ̿̿
Gimme the crypto!!
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Seretonin
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June 28, 2014, 12:08:39 AM |
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This ship is sinking fast!
10:1 tell's me I'm not going to love the cryptx post much despite the moving to p2pool (which I think ultimately is a good thing).
I think the price will recover (temporarily) when he announces that. I have noticed that on the Bitcoin subreddit people blindly investing when he made previous announcements. |
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MonkeyBear68
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June 28, 2014, 12:16:33 AM |
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In this case Puppet and NotLambchop convinced me to accept my losses and get out. The numbers just don't look good. In 3 months time the increase in hash rate will make it such that the Bitcoins mined only cover the hosting fee. Unless the reinvestment ratio is changed to at least 95/5 the loan will not be paid out till mid August. That only leaves one months time for a small reinvestment fund to build up. Like I said in some of my earlier posts, Bitcoin Mining is like a dog chasing its tail.
Good luck to all of you who are in this project. Let's hope that Bitcoin rises to the $1000's so that mining will again become profitable.
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