[HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit)

[Puppet]

I always said my simulations where very (very) optimistic.

Now lets continue being optimistic without ignoring the current reality, and lets assume the current hashrate spike is just a one time anomaly and after the upcoming  ~25%  adjustment,  network growth will reach a record low average of 7%/week and decelerate further by 3%. It doesnt get much more optimistic than that:



That gives this result



No reinvestments for another 3 months, and cryptx NAV would be ~0.017 BTC / share, and thats still assuming record breaking reinvestment efficiency.
In reality fair valuation is probably around half that, or around 1/10th of its current price.

Ive seen lots of idiocy in the security forums, but this one takes the cake.

[1714734385]

1714734385

[1714734385]

1714734385

[1714734385]

1714734385

[MPalokaj]

Now lets continue being optimistic without ignoring the current reality, and lets assume the current hashrate spike is just a one time anomaly

Because that is what we have seen so far, no hashrate spikes at all, this is a unique occurrence. Except for that one time we got 3 times what we were promised after 1st havelock IPO, and now again... Yup, cryptx has disappointed me time and time again.

[Puppet]

Because that is what we have seen so far, no hashrate spikes at all, this is a unique occurrence.

ROFL. You do realize in the past year difficulty went up by nearly a factor 1000x right? 100000% Nothing unique at 25% jumps. What would be unique is sustained <7% week growth wihch is what my simulation is  based on, we havent seen sustained  growth that low  ever since the asic era.

Anyway, tell me, what do you think difficulty will be like by the end of this year?

Except for that one time we got 3 times what we were promised after 1st havelock IPO

And who gave you that? A good part of it is a loan you will be paying off for an eternity, and the rest from second and third round IPO investors who  already saw  35% of their investment go up in smoke after just a few weeks (more like 50-80% if they own more than a handful of shares).

Good luck finding new suckers for a fresh round of IPO's at even higher prices to bail you out yet again. Not gonna happen, even the stupidity of bitcoin investors has its limits.

[NotLambchop]

Oh! Lions and tigers and bears. Oh my!



https://tradeblock.com/mining/



How now, brown cow?

[ChevaL]

Oh! Lions and tigers and bears. Oh my!



https://tradeblock.com/mining/



How now, brown cow?

I like your first chart. I think all this Fud finally paid off, someone just pulled the trigger!

[NotLambchop]

I post undisputed facts.  You call it FUD.  Only in Bitcoin, folks

[Puppet]

ROFL. Someone is trying to keep the illusion on havelock, always buying 1 share to boost the "price"

Code:

2014-06-22 09:11:39	1	฿0.05999999	฿0.0600
2014-06-22 09:11:11	3	฿0.05000000	฿0.1500
2014-06-22 09:11:11	2	฿0.05000100	฿0.1000
2014-06-22 09:11:11	1	฿0.05000101	฿0.0500
2014-06-22 09:11:10	40	฿0.05000111	฿2.0000
2014-06-22 09:11:10	1	฿0.05000112	฿0.0500
2014-06-22 09:11:09	1	฿0.05100000	฿0.0510
2014-06-22 09:11:09	1	฿0.05100001	฿0.0510
2014-06-22 09:11:08	1	฿0.05160000	฿0.0516
2014-06-22 09:11:08	1	฿0.05200000	฿0.0520
2014-06-22 09:11:08	5	฿0.05250000	฿0.2625
2014-06-22 09:11:07	4	฿0.05300000	฿0.2120
2014-06-22 09:11:06	27	฿0.05353475	฿1.4454
2014-06-22 09:10:50	347	฿0.05353475	฿18.5766

Usagi must be invested in this, he, like no one else understands that buying 1 share for 0.06 BTC really increases the value of  thousands of shares in his wallet by 20%

Meanwhile, in the real world, no meaningfull bids above 0.02890000. Which is still quite an excellent deal compared to holding this bag.

[ChevaL]

I post undisputed facts.  You call it FUD.  Only in Bitcoin, folks

Sorry I was not just talking about you, I was talking about all the negativy posted by you.. and others in this thread over the past week. I know you are enjoying this dump because you are manipulators trying to get cheap shares OR you feel that you accomplished something after putting so much energy in all these posts to save the poor peasants who invested in.

Either way, well played.

[NotLambchop]

Sure.  Like everyone else, I mean to enjoy the fruits of my labor--a rather readable cautionary tale, its cast of finance hobbyists [predictably] losing everything by ignoring the warnings of their betters.

Regarding my "trying to get cheap shares":  I'm no more interested in these than in a case of neurosyphilis.

~Happy investing!

[DropDead.Be]

I'm completely out, I feel like missing the guillotine
Just put up some nice buy orders at 0.0000xx

Let em come

[altoidmintz]

I always said my simulations where very (very) optimistic.

Now lets continue being optimistic without ignoring the current reality, and lets assume the current hashrate spike is just a one time anomaly and after the upcoming  ~25%  adjustment,  network growth will reach a record low average of 7%/week and decelerate further by 3%. It doesnt get much more optimistic than that:



That gives this result



No reinvestments for another 3 months, and cryptx NAV would be ~0.017 BTC / share, and thats still assuming record breaking reinvestment efficiency.
In reality fair valuation is probably around half that, or around 1/10th of its current price.

Ive seen lots of idiocy in the security forums, but this one takes the cake.

Lol. Reality check dude. You're forecast predicts a rapid and dramatic div drop - something which has NEVER ACTUALLY HAPPENED.

In fact, divs have consistently risen.

Try modelling reality next time, not just whack arbitrary numbers.

[altoidmintz]

No rational actor would go that long without reinvestment anyway. There is a reinvestment fund for a reason! At the point in time in which the fund ostensibly would max out, we can expect reinvestment to occur. CryptX wouldn't just let his reinvestment wallet collapse.

[Freeside]

Hi, small time holder with PETA, just registered to give my thoughts.

As much as puppet is trolling the point, his numbers (sadly) do add up, the loan is being re-paid too slowly. It is clearly having an effect on share price and probably putting off new investors who have shown an interest from the soon to come p2pool switch (which is a great idea and I fully support).

I'm in this for the long run and want to maintain a (very) small part of the bitcoin network through PETA, as I think most of the unit holders here also are.

As I see it, the hash rate is going up at a comical rate and has no sign of easing up. Small time/home miners are simply not able to compete against the likes of bitfury/CEX.IO's massive hubs. The only reasonable hope people like me have are in companies like PETA who pool our resources; if they cannot run a profitable mining rig then none of us can.

Looking into the next ~6 weeks I assume that once the loan is or nearly is paid off cryptx will give another loan to the shareholders and we will ride the ups and downs in divs as the network hash rate keeps rising ect.ect. However, it is clearly going to cost >50% of the revenue to keep the mine anywhere near 1% of the network in the long term.

I'm sure cryptX and the >5% unit holders have a plan, as clearly they are not going to let their large investment fall so easily, but unless cryptX has an ace up their sleeve may I suggest one of the following:

- stopping divs for 4 weeks to pay off the loan.

- upping the re-investment to 80/90% (I was happy with 0.0007 per share per week a few months ago, weren't you?) allowing the mine to continue loooong into the future (with profit each week)

- making some sort of sliding scale re-investment / divs percentage where the amount of BTC required to keep up with difficulty (and peta at 1% of the network) comes out of weekly profit first and anything left over is given out as divs.


In any circumstance, I want PETA to keep going as long as possible and for my little investment to keep giving a small amount over years rather than crash and burn in a few months.  Thoughts?

[theMiracle]

+1!

Just pawned grandma's wheelchair and wired the profit to cryptex.  Grammy's a tough old bird and PETA could put the money to better use.

Gentlemen, we're the new moneyed elite!  Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more!

[runam0k]

With DTM launching and AM shares reaching new lows, you really should be doing a lot better for the sheer amount of time and numbers of accounts you're dedicating to this.

[nwfella]

This is just getting sad.  Share price doesn't seem to be doing anything but tanking. 

Damn you puppet for coming in here with your math and logic and whatnot!

Hate to admit it but seems like his predictions are holding some water at this point. :/

[crazyearner]

Not worth the risk now these days and to be honest SHA mining I would say is almost over unless rigs are min of 5TH and cost less than $900 each and have very low power use. Till them days happn buying any sha equipment is to risky now unless a well know company or none pre order BS the shairs here do look attractive but still too risky and a lot of ones  I have looked at over the last 3 months have done nothing but tank down in price.

[NotLambchop]

@runam0k:  Ino, rite?  I risk life and limb setting foot onto this ship, looking only for safe and speedy evacuation of its unfortunate passengers, and what am I greeted with?  Outstretched hands and babbling thanks?

No.

Lunatics.  Scurrying around the careening deck, numb frozen hands grasping at chairs to arrange into magical constellations, patterns they hope will re-sink these mammoth monstrosities beneath the icy waters.



Re-invest moar, they say.  Less dividends, they beg.
Once human, now broken by grief.  Descending into madness before sinking beneath the waves.

Well, here we are, Gentlemen.  Be British, or every man for himself.

Titanic.gif, Gentlemen.  Titanic.gif.

[jjdub7]

Mmm, 2 1/2 shares of PETA for ~$81 or R-box for $60 (plus ~$3/month in electric)...

Cryptx bought the current equipment right before a new wave of chips came out - did nobody left here see this coming?  

Let's look at ASICminer as an example of a successful public offering whose business plan included hosted mining.  Success here is defined by a full return on IPO price via dividends (as opposed to price appreciation, which later contributed to further gains by investors).

AM's phenomenal solo-mining run was something we might see only a few times in the future (if at all), and yet they hedged their risk by also selling equipment as a second line of business.  The sheer advantage they held over the rest of the mining space was unparalleled at the time.  Future performance TBD.  AM, like all crypto securities, was a risky bet, but friedcat came through on a grand scale last year. 

In comparison, nobody who buys this fund right now (let alone at that downright bizarre second..ahem, third IPO price) will see a return on their investment through dividends.  If we assume that reinvestment could keep dividends constant at around 0.0017, even after one year, the fund will only yield 0.088.  

BUT WAIT - THE FUND CARRIES HEAVY SHORT TERM DEBT.  That's the real reason the bid line is paper-thin with only one major support at 0.0211.  Nobody in their right mind wants to hold an asset with that risk profile in their portfolio.  It's not called "reinvestment" when your reinvestment funds are actually just paying off the capital you already have - those are interest payments - any increase in hashrate the fund can afford will be entirely muted by the new chips flooding the network this month.

That's called math.  It's not FUD, it's math.  Incidentally - remember how "awesome" your GPU seemed to hash at 15 Mh/s?  With each new iteration in the length scale of chip architectures, the hashing standard shifts by an order of magnitude.

And not to mention the piss-poor downright shady communication from management during said 2nd (ahem, 3rd) IPO - for me, that alone warranted a fire sale at any loss just to get whatever I could back out.

Don't blame Puppet or anyone else for dragging down the share price.  Its the fact that Cryptx came in with a prospectus containing the downright shittiest set of difficulty projections and market research that, coupled with taglines such as "We'll have 2% of the network hashrate!", lured investors onto a sinking ship.

[jjdub7]

That being said, the Scrypt offering seemed moderately better thought-out, down only 25% from its most recent IPO price.