GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer

[wachtwoord]

SecondMarket will not lose any money, no matter what the price does.  

yeah...  

Wasn't that was true of mtgox too?

Yeah, that's what proves conclusively Karpales is a special kind of stupid.

[keithers]

I've wanted to see the numbers on this, so thanks OP

[jl2012]

Virtually no change: 16 BTC sold, most likely rounding error (Friday April 25th).

Thank you. Please also quote the raw data (NAV and total asset) since I may occasionally forget to take the values

[JorgeStolfi]

SecondMarket could make even more money if they had a private source that would sell them bitcoins below market price. That difference in price would be their extra profit.

They do.

I don't know how KNC sells their mined coins; but they seem to be a carefully planned enterprise, so I guess that they secured from the start a contract with some investor who is bound to buy their bitcoins at a fixed price.  If that price is still below market, that could be a source of cheap coins.

SecondMarket of course will not knowingly buy stolen bitcoins.  But why would not they buy at 80% discount of market price from some respectable investor who bought them at 60% from someone who bought them at 40% from someone who bought them at 25% from a Russian mobster who bought them at 15% from the MtGOX thief?  It is not their job to trace all stolen coins in the blockchain, is it?

EDIT: "80% of market price", of course, not "80% discount".

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Virtually no change: 16 BTC sold, most likely rounding error (Friday April 25th).

Thank you. Please also quote the raw data (NAV and total asset) since I may occasionally forget to take the values

You are right, they are disappearing next day. Ok.

April 25th: NAV $45.85  Net assets: $48.2 MM Conclusion: no change (-16 BTC)

[TERA]

Looks like we need a ThirdMarket now.

[keithers]

Is there any talk of an approximate ETA for the public sale of shares? Too bad we couldnt have made some sort of an investment trust through this forum, there is a lot of money floating around here...

[marcus_of_augustus]

Is there any talk of an approximate ETA for the public sale of shares? Too bad we couldnt have made some sort of an investment trust through this forum, there is a lot of money floating around here...

... any "floating bitcoin" has been stolen or defrauded.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

April 25th: NAV $45.85 Net assets: $48.2 MM Conclusion: no change (-16 BTC)
April 28th: NAV $43.00 Net assets: $45.2 MM No new BTC bought (up to 200 BTC could be sold, impossible to tell due to rounding)

[jl2012]

The table becomes too long. These are the data before May 2014:

Date	NAV ($)	Net	Est	Est Net	Est New	Actual
		Assets	Holding	Buying	Invest	Holding
		(M$)	(XBT)	(XBT)	(M$)	(XBT)
30-Apr-14	43.62	45.8	103852	-90	-0.04	103852
29-Apr-14	43.77	46.0	103942	-31	-0.01
28-Apr-14	43.00	45.2	103973	-13	0.00
25-Apr-14	45.85	48.2	103986	18	0.01
24-Apr-14	47.95	50.4	103968	1473	0.71
23-Apr-14	48.06	49.8	102495	-31	-0.02
22-Apr-14	48.43	50.2	102526	98	0.05
21-Apr-14	49.25	51.0	102428	153	0.08
17-Apr-14	50.10	51.8	102275	1048	0.53
16-Apr-14	51.01	52.2	101227	-120	-0.06
15-Apr-14	48.22	49.4	101347	365	0.18
14-Apr-14	43.69	44.6	100982	-162	-0.07
11-Apr-14	38.34	39.2	101144	-555	-0.21
10-Apr-14	40.37	41.5	101699	5865	2.39
9-Apr-14	44.08	42.7	95834	-31	-0.01
8-Apr-14	44.48	43.1	95865	-161	-0.07
5-Apr-14	44.92	43.6	96026	226	0.10
4-Apr-14	43.89	42.5	95800	-1139	-0.50
3-Apr-14	43.07	42.2	96939	2532	1.10
2-Apr-14	45.38	43.3	94407	-1762	-0.81
1-Apr-14	47.22	45.9	96169	62	0.04	96169
31-Mar-14	45.30	44.0	96107	-12	0.01
28-Mar-14	49.63	48.2	96119	-57	-0.02
27-Mar-14	53.31	51.8	96176	3863	2.08
26-Mar-14	57.58	53.7	92313	63	0.04
25-Mar-14	57.41	53.5	92250	62	0.04
24-Mar-14	55.52	51.7	92188	128	0.08
21-Mar-14	57.33	53.3	92060	1617	0.94
20-Mar-14	58.91	53.8	90443	2063	1.23
19-Mar-14	60.96	54.4	88380	-7	0.00
18-Mar-14	60.62	54.1	88387	73	0.05
17-Mar-14	61.91	55.2	88314	-120	-0.06
14-Mar-14	62.85	56.1	88434	1688	1.08
13-Mar-14	63.28	55.4	86746	1837	1.17
12-Mar-14	63.25	54.2	84909	152	0.10
11-Mar-14	61.50	52.6	84757	43	0.03
10-Mar-14	62.47	53.4	84714	-128	-0.07
7-Mar-14	63.21	54.1	84842	162	0.11
6-Mar-14	65.21	55.7	84680	648	0.43
5-Mar-14	65.48	55.5	84032	510	0.34
4-Mar-14	67.19	56.6	83522	37	0.03
3-Mar-14	61.88	52.1	83485	-61	-0.03	83485
28-Feb-14	56.03	47.2	83546	145	0.08
27-Feb-14	57.32	48.2	83401	1011	0.59
26-Feb-14	55.86	46.4	82390	481	0.27
25-Feb-14	48.32	39.9	81909	41	0.02
24-Feb-14	56.95	47.0	81868	11	0.01
21-Feb-14	55.15	45.5	81857	81	0.05
20-Feb-14	58.97	48.6	81776	887	0.53
19-Feb-14	61.46	50.1	80889	-3	0.00
18-Feb-14	61.83	50.4	80892	-104	-0.05
14-Feb-14	60.54	49.4	80996	119	0.08
13-Feb-14	62.72	51.1	80877	931	0.59
12-Feb-14	64.82	52.2	79946	30	0.02
11-Feb-14	66.96	53.9	79916	7	0.01
10-Feb-14	62.00	49.9	79909	70	0.05
7-Feb-14	71.27	57.3	79839	6	0.01
6-Feb-14	80.61	64.8	79833	612	0.50
5-Feb-14	83.62	66.7	79221	5818	4.90
4-Feb-14	84.57	62.5	73403	13	0.02
3-Feb-14	84.32	62.3	73390	31	0.04
30-Jan-14	83.97	62.0	73359	585	0.50	73359
29-Jan-14	84.65	62.0	72774	-13	-0.01
28-Jan-14	81.91	60.0	72787	655	0.54
27-Jan-14	81.42	59.1	72132	90	0.09
24-Jan-14	80.02	58.0	72042	-72	-0.05
23-Jan-14	82.15	59.6	72114	722	0.60
22-Jan-14	84.24	60.5	71392	6	0.01
21-Jan-14	86.48	62.1	71386	-31	-0.01
17-Jan-14	81.87	58.8	71417	531	0.44
15-Jan-14	85.58	61.0	70886	-10	0.00
14-Jan-14	83.75	59.7	70896	65	0.06
13-Jan-14	83.13	59.2	70831	-66	-0.04
10-Jan-14	83.35	59.4	70897	30	0.03
9-Jan-14	83.25	59.3	70867	735	0.62
8-Jan-14	82.00	57.8	70132	50	0.04
7-Jan-14	89.73	63.2	70082	69	0.07
6-Jan-14	95.51	67.2	70013	25	0.04
3-Jan-14	81.91	57.6	69988	76	0.07
2-Jan-14	78.73	55.3	69912	209	0.17
31-Dec-13	76.12	53.3	69703	-20	-0.01
30-Dec-13	76.96	53.9	69723	-161	-0.11
27-Dec-13	75.80	53.2	69884	47	0.04
26-Dec-13	73.86	51.8	69837	27	0.03
24-Dec-13	67.05	47.0	69810	44	0.03
23-Dec-13	64.67	45.3	69766	53	0.04
20-Dec-13	68.59	48.0	69713	235	0.16
19-Dec-13	62.23	43.4	69478	863	0.54
18-Dec-13	54.45	37.5	68615	103	0.06
17-Dec-13	69.66	47.9	68512	310	0.22
16-Dec-13	76.41	52.3	68202	902	0.70
13-Dec-13	90.48	61.1	67300	-87	-0.08	67300
12-Dec-13	86.96	58.8	67387	666	0.58
11-Dec-13	91.71	61.4	66721	86	0.08
10-Dec-13	93.62	62.6	66635	27	0.02
9-Dec-13	84.68	56.6	66608	33	0.02
6-Dec-13	92.35	61.7	66575	404	0.37
5-Dec-13	100.14	66.5	66171	976	0.98
4-Dec-13	110.96	72.6	65195	147	0.16
3-Dec-13	105.54	68.9	65048	114	0.12
2-Dec-13	97.13	63.3	64934	1076	1.05
29-Nov-13	107.81	69.1	63858	383	0.41	63858
27-Nov-13	92.45	58.9	63475	2427	2.25
26-Nov-13	83.07	50.9	61048	1223	1.02
25-Nov-13	77.94	46.8	59825	1028	0.80
22-Nov-13	71.00	41.9	58797	3044	2.17
21-Nov-13	63.26	35.4	55753	-110	-0.07
20-Nov-13	52.97	29.7	55863
19-Nov-13	63.82
18-Nov-13	55.22	29.7	53587	297	0.16
15-Nov-13	42.44	22.7	53290	560	0.24
14-Nov-13	41.19	21.8	52730		0.00
13-Nov-13	38.24				0.00
12-Nov-13	35.47				0.00
8-Nov-13	31.96				0.00
7-Nov-13	28.65				0.0
6-Nov-13	25.45				0.0
5-Nov-13	23.78	8.3	34700			34700
4-Nov-13	21.97
1-Nov-13	20.46
31-Oct-13	20.02
30-Oct-13	20.30
29-Oct-13	20.03
28-Oct-13	19.62
25-Oct-13	18.04
24-Oct-13	19.46
23-Oct-13	20.10
22-Oct-13	19.10
21-Oct-13	17.90
18-Oct-13	15.20
17-Oct-13	14.55
16-Oct-13	14.86
15-Oct-13	14.31
14-Oct-13	14.27
11-Oct-13	13.03
10-Oct-13	13.14
9-Oct-13	13.03
8-Oct-13	12.52
7-Oct-13	12.77
4-Oct-13	12.63
3-Oct-13	11.70
2-Oct-13	11.86
1-Oct-13	13.22
30-Sep-13	13.26
27-Sep-13	13.35
26-Sep-13	12.67
25-Sep-13	12.88
Seed Investment	12.64	2.3	17800			17800

[leopard2]

Chinese government has a similar table

But MUCH larger numbers ! 

[counter]

Well this is an interesting thread and pretty informative.  I for one was not even aware of this market so yea I"m learning alot.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

April 25th: NAV $45.85 Net assets: $48.2 MM Conclusion: no change (-16 BTC)
April 28th: NAV $43.00 Net assets: $45.2 MM No new BTC bought (up to 200 BTC could be sold, impossible to tell due to rounding)
April 29th: NAV $43.77 Net assets: $46.0 MM Conclusion: no change

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

April 25th: NAV $45.85 Net assets: $48.2 MM Conclusion: no change (-16 BTC)
April 28th: NAV $43.00 Net assets: $45.2 MM No new BTC bought (up to 200 BTC could be sold, impossible to tell due to rounding)
April 29th: NAV $43.77 Net assets: $46.0 MM Conclusion: no change
April 30th: NAV $43.62 Net assets: $45.8 MM Conclusion: no change

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

April 25th: NAV $45.85 Net assets: $48.2 MM Conclusion: no change (-16 BTC)
April 28th: NAV $43.00 Net assets: $45.2 MM No new BTC bought (up to 200 BTC could be sold, impossible to tell due to rounding)
April 29th: NAV $43.77 Net assets: $46.0 MM Conclusion: no change
April 30th: NAV $43.62 Net assets: $45.8 MM Conclusion: no change

May 1st: NAV $44.79 Net assets: $47.6 MM 1283 BTC bought (= $0.575 MM invested, I am using the fact that they allow to invest only in 25k$ units in calculations)

[jl2012]

1256XBT bought yesterday

April 2014 data revised with latest actual holding value

[chriswilmer]

I'm actually impressed by how low the price is given how many were purchased through SecondMarket alone. That's a lot of bitcoins!

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

I'm actually impressed by how low the price is given how many were purchased through SecondMarket alone. That's a lot of bitcoins!

Well, it shows that price will be lower without them. Perhaps also explains why Stamp prices are often higher these days - seems that often one can match SecondMarket purchase to walls on Stamp, imho.

[nioc]

How do you know they purchase on Stamp?

Every "buy" happens on a Thursday.  I find it strange that they would buy on an exchange always on the same day without regard to the price, especially considering the current lack of liquidity.  The consistent timing seems to indicate a prearranged agreement with a mining pool or other entity.

[Stevenrm87]

How do you know they purchase on Stamp?

Every "buy" happens on a Thursday.  I find it strange that they would buy on an exchange always on the same day without regard to the price, especially considering the current lack of liquidity.  The consistent timing seems to indicate a prearranged agreement with a mining pool or other entity.

bingo