jl2012 (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 1792
Merit: 1097
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July 03, 2014, 03:13:54 AM |
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406XBT bought. This is the biggest buy in the past 2 months
Woot. "So basically at least USD$20MM of bitcoin buying demand went unsatisfied in the auction and will look elsewhere to buy bitcoins i.e. market" Alan Silbert Yes, those claiming the auction not significant were completely delusional ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=665961.0 )
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Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY) LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC) PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
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FNG
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July 03, 2014, 03:22:56 AM |
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406XBT bought. This is the biggest buy in the past 2 months
Woot. "So basically at least USD$20MM of bitcoin buying demand went unsatisfied in the auction and will look elsewhere to buy bitcoins i.e. market" Alan Silbert Yes, those claiming the auction not significant were completely delusional ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=665961.0 ) lol "30K coins are... a mere 0.22% of coins - it is nothing" - Tera Yet (s)he tracks squiggly lines created by dozens of coins..to predict the future
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lay785
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July 03, 2014, 04:06:00 AM |
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406XBT bought. This is the biggest buy in the past 2 months
Woot. "So basically at least USD$20MM of bitcoin buying demand went unsatisfied in the auction and will look elsewhere to buy bitcoins i.e. market" Alan Silbert Yes, those claiming the auction not significant were completely delusional ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=665961.0 ) lol "30K coins are... a mere 0.22% of coins - it is nothing" - Tera Yet (s)he tracks squiggly lines created by dozens of coins..to predict the future such are the cultists...
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jl2012 (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 1792
Merit: 1097
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July 03, 2014, 04:28:52 AM |
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406XBT bought. This is the biggest buy in the past 2 months
Woot. "So basically at least USD$20MM of bitcoin buying demand went unsatisfied in the auction and will look elsewhere to buy bitcoins i.e. market" Alan Silbert Yes, those claiming the auction not significant were completely delusional ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=665961.0 ) lol "30K coins are... a mere 0.22% of coins - it is nothing" - Tera Yet (s)he tracks squiggly lines created by dozens of coins..to predict the future such are the cultists... Such are the trolls. The auction left 44 disappointed bidders with 10s, if not 100s, of million USD ready for buying bitcoin. Even only 10% of these USD will actually buy on the market, that should push us to $700; and we have already see this effect in BIT on the first 2 days of July
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Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY) LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC) PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
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oda.krell
Legendary
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Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
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July 03, 2014, 08:09:48 AM |
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I agree that Tera's claim that "the auction doesn't matter" was kind of naive. His point is, and it's a valid one, that the amount of coins auctioned is simply too small to be significant, when compared to what is mined, but what he ignores is that there is a very obvious psychological effect of the auction. In simple terms: the fact that he felt the need to post "stop talking about X, it doesn't matter" conclusively shows that X matters a lot, after all.
I don't buy the "losing bidders will now buy at market", though. If anything, the losing bids we know about seemed highly opportunistic to me. If price drops to $400, sure, they'll jump in, but at least from their bidding behavior I personally conclude that they're not in a hurry to buy more at market price at the exchanges.
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Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
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windjc
Legendary
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
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July 03, 2014, 08:13:39 AM |
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I agree that Tera's claim that "the auction doesn't matter" was kind of naive. His point is, and it's a valid one, that the amount of coins auctioned is simply too small to be significant, when compared to what is mined, but what he ignores is that there is a very obvious psychological effect of the auction. In simple terms: the fact that he felt the need to post "stop talking about X, it doesn't matter" conclusively shows that X matters a lot, after all.
I don't buy the "losing bidders will now buy at market", though. If anything, the losing bids we know about seemed highly opportunistic to me. If price drops to $400, sure, they'll jump in, but at least from their bidding behavior I personally conclude that they're not in a hurry to buy more at market price at the exchanges.
I kinda agree literally with you, but not on point. RE: the lowballers - I believe a couple of points - A) they were surprised they lost or lost by a lot. B) losing makes you want something more C) by bidding they acknowledge to themselves that they would like to own more. From this I conclude that some of these individuals will CERTAINLY buy more during the next bubble. Some of them will chase the price. Because A) Human Nature and B) Some just aren't that smart really (ie Alex Waters)
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oda.krell
Legendary
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Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
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July 03, 2014, 08:23:26 AM |
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I agree that Tera's claim that "the auction doesn't matter" was kind of naive. His point is, and it's a valid one, that the amount of coins auctioned is simply too small to be significant, when compared to what is mined, but what he ignores is that there is a very obvious psychological effect of the auction. In simple terms: the fact that he felt the need to post "stop talking about X, it doesn't matter" conclusively shows that X matters a lot, after all.
I don't buy the "losing bidders will now buy at market", though. If anything, the losing bids we know about seemed highly opportunistic to me. If price drops to $400, sure, they'll jump in, but at least from their bidding behavior I personally conclude that they're not in a hurry to buy more at market price at the exchanges.
I kinda agree literally with you, but not on point. RE: the lowballers - I believe a couple of points - A) they were surprised they lost or lost by a lot. B) losing makes you want something more C) by bidding they acknowledge to themselves that they would like to own more. From this I conclude that some of these individuals will CERTAINLY buy more during the next bubble. Some of them will chase the price. Because A) Human Nature and B) Some just aren't that smart really (ie Alex Waters) Complete agreement. It still, kind of, fits my point: they are 'opportunistic', in the sense that they will jump in once price is conclusively on the rise again, probably when approaching the previous ATH. But they won't jump in _now_, driving up the price in the first place. So, if the point is that there's money sitting on the sidelines, waiting to buy in: I agree. Just not expecting it to happen before we're more securely in a bull market again.
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Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
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windjc
Legendary
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
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July 03, 2014, 08:30:28 AM |
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I agree that Tera's claim that "the auction doesn't matter" was kind of naive. His point is, and it's a valid one, that the amount of coins auctioned is simply too small to be significant, when compared to what is mined, but what he ignores is that there is a very obvious psychological effect of the auction. In simple terms: the fact that he felt the need to post "stop talking about X, it doesn't matter" conclusively shows that X matters a lot, after all.
I don't buy the "losing bidders will now buy at market", though. If anything, the losing bids we know about seemed highly opportunistic to me. If price drops to $400, sure, they'll jump in, but at least from their bidding behavior I personally conclude that they're not in a hurry to buy more at market price at the exchanges.
I kinda agree literally with you, but not on point. RE: the lowballers - I believe a couple of points - A) they were surprised they lost or lost by a lot. B) losing makes you want something more C) by bidding they acknowledge to themselves that they would like to own more. From this I conclude that some of these individuals will CERTAINLY buy more during the next bubble. Some of them will chase the price. Because A) Human Nature and B) Some just aren't that smart really (ie Alex Waters) Complete agreement. It still, kind of, fits my point: they are 'opportunistic', in the sense that they will jump in once price is conclusively on the rise again, probably when approaching the previous ATH. But they won't jump in _now_, driving up the price in the first place. So, if the point is that there's money sitting on the sidelines, waiting to buy in: I agree. Just not expecting it to happen before we're more securely in a bull market again. This next point is going to sound arrogant (probably because it is but at least I acknowledge it ) but one thing becoming a quasi-expert in crypto has taught me is that a lot of people are not as smart as you would assume they are. Its such an interesting social phenomena to behold. I have learned so much about humans (and to a point, many things about myself).
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jl2012 (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 1792
Merit: 1097
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July 03, 2014, 09:37:33 AM |
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I agree that Tera's claim that "the auction doesn't matter" was kind of naive. His point is, and it's a valid one, that the amount of coins auctioned is simply too small to be significant, when compared to what is mined,
Actually even this point is invalid. All bidders, no matter opportunistic or not, needed to have 100% of their bidding amount ready in cash, as they only had 1 day to pay if they won. Although "merely" 29600 coins were sold, 100s of million USD was effectively frozen for over 2 weeks.
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Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY) LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC) PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
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StarenseN
Legendary
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Activity: 2478
Merit: 1362
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July 03, 2014, 09:40:33 AM |
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following
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JorgeStolfi
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July 03, 2014, 10:04:49 AM |
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RE: the lowballers - I believe a couple of points - A) they were surprised they lost or lost by a lot. B) losing makes you want something more C) by bidding they acknowledge to themselves that they would like to own more.
They don't know by how much they lost, unless Tim Draper or some higher bidder told them. Most, if not all, of the losing bidders probably were not "people who wanted more coins" but "people who saw a chance to make easy money if they were lucky and got some coins well below market" (like that guy who bid at 403$). Anyone who has that sort of money and believes that the price will go significantly higher than market should be buying on the exchanges, auction or no auction, until the market price got higher. The fact that the price is now more or less stable ~650$, for example, means that everyone who still has money in hand expects to lose money if he bought for more than that. So I don't think that any of the bidders, not even Draper, bid above 600$ (the max market price on Jun/27); and in fact I believe that they all bid at 550$ or lower. An investor who got the coins at 550$ would be expecting to make 150'000$ profit, from gambling 1.8 1.65 million; or 1.5 million profit, from gambling 18 16.5 million.; which to me does not seem quite enough to justify entering such an uncertain venture. Note that they were putting their own millions in the game, not someone else's. By the same reasoning, if the auction was today, I believe that there would be no bid higher than 600$.
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Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
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oda.krell
Legendary
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Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
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July 03, 2014, 10:19:56 AM Last edit: July 03, 2014, 10:30:46 AM by oda.krell |
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I agree that Tera's claim that "the auction doesn't matter" was kind of naive. His point is, and it's a valid one, that the amount of coins auctioned is simply too small to be significant, when compared to what is mined,
Actually even this point is invalid. All bidders, no matter opportunistic or not, needed to have 100% of their bidding amount ready in cash, as they only had 1 day to pay if they won. Although "merely" 29600 coins were sold, 100s of million USD was effectively frozen for over 2 weeks. And my point is that those "100s of million USD" are not guaranteed to buy in, although I assume that, long term, there's at least a fair chance they will.I see your point. As in: only X coins were at stake, but a multiple of X was actually at stake because of frozen bids.
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Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
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BitchicksHusband
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July 03, 2014, 08:31:49 PM |
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I agree that Tera's claim that "the auction doesn't matter" was kind of naive. His point is, and it's a valid one, that the amount of coins auctioned is simply too small to be significant, when compared to what is mined, but what he ignores is that there is a very obvious psychological effect of the auction. In simple terms: the fact that he felt the need to post "stop talking about X, it doesn't matter" conclusively shows that X matters a lot, after all.
I don't buy the "losing bidders will now buy at market", though. If anything, the losing bids we know about seemed highly opportunistic to me. If price drops to $400, sure, they'll jump in, but at least from their bidding behavior I personally conclude that they're not in a hurry to buy more at market price at the exchanges.
I kinda agree literally with you, but not on point. RE: the lowballers - I believe a couple of points - A) they were surprised they lost or lost by a lot. B) losing makes you want something more C) by bidding they acknowledge to themselves that they would like to own more. From this I conclude that some of these individuals will CERTAINLY buy more during the next bubble. Some of them will chase the price. Because A) Human Nature and B) Some just aren't that smart really (ie Alex Waters) Complete agreement. It still, kind of, fits my point: they are 'opportunistic', in the sense that they will jump in once price is conclusively on the rise again, probably when approaching the previous ATH. But they won't jump in _now_, driving up the price in the first place. So, if the point is that there's money sitting on the sidelines, waiting to buy in: I agree. Just not expecting it to happen before we're more securely in a bull market again. This next point is going to sound arrogant (probably because it is but at least I acknowledge it ) but one thing becoming a quasi-expert in crypto has taught me is that a lot of people are not as smart as you would assume they are. Its such an interesting social phenomena to behold. I have learned so much about humans (and to a point, many things about myself). Not that arrogant, I consider you to be one of the smartest people on here.
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1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
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BitchicksHusband
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July 03, 2014, 08:33:06 PM |
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RE: the lowballers - I believe a couple of points - A) they were surprised they lost or lost by a lot. B) losing makes you want something more C) by bidding they acknowledge to themselves that they would like to own more.
They don't know by how much they lost, unless Tim Draper or some higher bidder told them. Most, if not all, of the losing bidders probably were not "people who wanted more coins" but "people who saw a chance to make easy money if they were lucky and got some coins well below market" (like that guy who bid at 403$). Anyone who has that sort of money and believes that the price will go significantly higher than market should be buying on the exchanges, auction or no auction, until the market price got higher. The fact that the price is now more or less stable ~650$, for example, means that everyone who still has money in hand expects to lose money if he bought for more than that. So I don't think that any of the bidders, not even Draper, bid above 600$ (the max market price on Jun/27); and in fact I believe that they all bid at 550$ or lower. An investor who got the coins at 550$ would be expecting to make 150'000$ profit, from gambling 1.8 1.65 million; or 1.5 million profit, from gambling 18 16.5 million.; which to me does not seem quite enough to justify entering such an uncertain venture. Note that they were putting their own millions in the game, not someone else's. By the same reasoning, if the auction was today, I believe that there would be no bid higher than 600$. It's already been calculated that Second Market's losing bid was $665.
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1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
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Dragonkiller
Sr. Member
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Activity: 378
Merit: 250
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Available Now!
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July 03, 2014, 08:35:30 PM |
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RE: the lowballers - I believe a couple of points - A) they were surprised they lost or lost by a lot. B) losing makes you want something more C) by bidding they acknowledge to themselves that they would like to own more.
They don't know by how much they lost, unless Tim Draper or some higher bidder told them. Most, if not all, of the losing bidders probably were not "people who wanted more coins" but "people who saw a chance to make easy money if they were lucky and got some coins well below market" (like that guy who bid at 403$). Anyone who has that sort of money and believes that the price will go significantly higher than market should be buying on the exchanges, auction or no auction, until the market price got higher. The fact that the price is now more or less stable ~650$, for example, means that everyone who still has money in hand expects to lose money if he bought for more than that. So I don't think that any of the bidders, not even Draper, bid above 600$ (the max market price on Jun/27); and in fact I believe that they all bid at 550$ or lower. An investor who got the coins at 550$ would be expecting to make 150'000$ profit, from gambling 1.8 1.65 million; or 1.5 million profit, from gambling 18 16.5 million.; which to me does not seem quite enough to justify entering such an uncertain venture. Note that they were putting their own millions in the game, not someone else's. By the same reasoning, if the auction was today, I believe that there would be no bid higher than 600$. It's already been calculated that Second Market's losing bid was $665. That's not true.
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wachtwoord
Legendary
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Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
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July 03, 2014, 08:35:59 PM |
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RE: the lowballers - I believe a couple of points - A) they were surprised they lost or lost by a lot. B) losing makes you want something more C) by bidding they acknowledge to themselves that they would like to own more.
They don't know by how much they lost, unless Tim Draper or some higher bidder told them. Most, if not all, of the losing bidders probably were not "people who wanted more coins" but "people who saw a chance to make easy money if they were lucky and got some coins well below market" (like that guy who bid at 403$). Anyone who has that sort of money and believes that the price will go significantly higher than market should be buying on the exchanges, auction or no auction, until the market price got higher. The fact that the price is now more or less stable ~650$, for example, means that everyone who still has money in hand expects to lose money if he bought for more than that. So I don't think that any of the bidders, not even Draper, bid above 600$ (the max market price on Jun/27); and in fact I believe that they all bid at 550$ or lower. An investor who got the coins at 550$ would be expecting to make 150'000$ profit, from gambling 1.8 1.65 million; or 1.5 million profit, from gambling 18 16.5 million.; which to me does not seem quite enough to justify entering such an uncertain venture. Note that they were putting their own millions in the game, not someone else's. By the same reasoning, if the auction was today, I believe that there would be no bid higher than 600$. It's already been calculated that Second Market's losing bid was $665. No that has been refuted. It isn't possible to deduce their bid from the information they gave.
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BitAddict
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Activity: 1190
Merit: 1001
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July 04, 2014, 12:09:05 AM Last edit: July 04, 2014, 03:32:52 AM by BitAddict |
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RE: the lowballers - I believe a couple of points - A) they were surprised they lost or lost by a lot. B) losing makes you want something more C) by bidding they acknowledge to themselves that they would like to own more.
They don't know by how much they lost, unless Tim Draper or some higher bidder told them. Most, if not all, of the losing bidders probably were not "people who wanted more coins" but "people who saw a chance to make easy money if they were lucky and got some coins well below market" (like that guy who bid at 403$). Anyone who has that sort of money and believes that the price will go significantly higher than market should be buying on the exchanges, auction or no auction, until the market price got higher. The fact that the price is now more or less stable ~650$, for example, means that everyone who still has money in hand expects to lose money if he bought for more than that. So I don't think that any of the bidders, not even Draper, bid above 600$ (the max market price on Jun/27); and in fact I believe that they all bid at 550$ or lower. An investor who got the coins at 550$ would be expecting to make 150'000$ profit, from gambling 1.8 1.65 million; or 1.5 million profit, from gambling 18 16.5 million.; which to me does not seem quite enough to justify entering such an uncertain venture. Note that they were putting their own millions in the game, not someone else's. By the same reasoning, if the auction was today, I believe that there would be no bid higher than 600$. It's already been calculated that Second Market's losing bid was $665. No that has been refuted. It isn't possible to deduce their bid from the information they gave. Also is impossible that Second Market bid was over bitcoin price. Remember it was for mid players, that kind of player could instantly buy at market price (plus their fees) in Second Market. Why they would pay 15% extra over bitcoin price and 5% fee to Second Market.... makes no sense.
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JorgeStolfi
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July 04, 2014, 12:41:19 AM |
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It's already been calculated that Second Market's losing bid was $665.
How did they figure out that SM bid just 1$ below the winning bid?
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Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
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wachtwoord
Legendary
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Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
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July 10, 2014, 11:20:08 AM |
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So this flat-lined as well. Must be summer
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jl2012 (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 1792
Merit: 1097
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July 17, 2014, 02:18:55 AM |
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About 600XBT bought since 10-Jul-14
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Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY) LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC) PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
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