GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer

[skivrmt]

Jorge, I've followed your posts on several different topics here.  Curious on your thoughts on the stock market in general?  Not if it's going up or down, just overall thoughts?  For example, do you have your retirement savings in a well balanced portfolio, stocks, bonds, real assets, alternative assets etc? 

I am not a sophisticated investor, never gave a thought to the stock market.  My savings are in some investment fund offered by my bank.  If I save enough, I may put it in real estate.

I do not believe in the apocalyptic scenarios that some paint, they are obviously used to market alternative investments like gold or bitcoin, and funds thereof.  There will be crises, of course, but I am sure that stocks and the dollar will suffer less than bitcoin.  People will continue to work,d buy things, and pay taxes.  The companies that make those things will continue doing so, and the governments will continue to function.

You don't have to be a sophisticated investor to just buy the S&P500. I guarantee that you'll comfortably outperform your silly bank by several percentage points annually at least over any reasonable period of time. I wish I was a bank and people would invest money this blindly with me. It's like sleeping yourself to riches ...

Very true watchwood.  But my question to Jorge was mainly to see how he may or may not relate Bitcoin to an investment.  He's very anti Bitcoin, which is fine, we all have our opinions, I just like to see various people's reasons behind their thoughts.

People who have 80%+ of their "net worth" or investments in Bitcoin are simply gambling.  Sure, if it goes to the moon, they might be rich.  But there's a lot of risk.  I think Bitcoin is a great alternative asset to hold in a well balanced portfolio, 5-10% (tops) of someone's overall holdings.  Grandma always said, never put all your eggs in one basket.

[1714638021]

1714638021

[Raystonn]

Was your grandma rich?

[skivrmt]

Was your grandma rich?

Still alive actually!  87 I think.  And no, she's not rich, but I'm sure she'd say she's very happy.

[Raystonn]

I'm sure her advice on attaining happiness has some value.  Advice on attaining wealth is something else.

[wachtwoord]

Jorge, I've followed your posts on several different topics here.  Curious on your thoughts on the stock market in general?  Not if it's going up or down, just overall thoughts?  For example, do you have your retirement savings in a well balanced portfolio, stocks, bonds, real assets, alternative assets etc? 

I am not a sophisticated investor, never gave a thought to the stock market.  My savings are in some investment fund offered by my bank.  If I save enough, I may put it in real estate.

I do not believe in the apocalyptic scenarios that some paint, they are obviously used to market alternative investments like gold or bitcoin, and funds thereof.  There will be crises, of course, but I am sure that stocks and the dollar will suffer less than bitcoin.  People will continue to work,d buy things, and pay taxes.  The companies that make those things will continue doing so, and the governments will continue to function.

You don't have to be a sophisticated investor to just buy the S&P500. I guarantee that you'll comfortably outperform your silly bank by several percentage points annually at least over any reasonable period of time. I wish I was a bank and people would invest money this blindly with me. It's like sleeping yourself to riches ...

Very true watchwood.  But my question to Jorge was mainly to see how he may or may not relate Bitcoin to an investment.  He's very anti Bitcoin, which is fine, we all have our opinions, I just like to see various people's reasons behind their thoughts.

People who have 80%+ of their "net worth" or investments in Bitcoin are simply gambling.  Sure, if it goes to the moon, they might be rich.  But there's a lot of risk.  I think Bitcoin is a great alternative asset to hold in a well balanced portfolio, 5-10% (tops) of someone's overall holdings.  Grandma always said, never put all your eggs in one basket.

Or put all your eggs in one basket and then WATCH THAT FUCKING BASKET!!111

[jl2012]

89 bought yesterday

[solex]

89 bought yesterday

SM should cut its fees. Maybe the big buyers are waiting for the COIN offering...

[JorgeStolfi]

I am not a sophisticated investor, never gave a thought to the stock market.  My savings are in some investment fund offered by my bank.  If I save enough, I may put it in real estate.

You don't have to be a sophisticated investor to just buy the S&P500. I guarantee that you'll comfortably outperform your silly bank by several percentage points annually at least over any reasonable period of time.
[/quote]
I do not feel that the chance of extra income is worth the worry and hassle.  It would not be much compared to my salary, anyway.

My younger son has a degree in Management, he invests his savings in stocks, long term.  He was quite worried about my interest in bitcoin, afraid I could be tempted into investing in it.   

[JorgeStolfi]

Little extra income? Do you understand the exponential function? :/
Over a long enough time horizon it's a guarentee.

You mean, exponential like the red line below?

[wachtwoord]

Little extra income? Do you understand the exponential function? :/
Over a long enough time horizon it's a guarentee.

You mean, exponential like the red line below?

Show me such a pattern in the S&P500 or any other broad index. dotcom bubble was for suckers

[Syke]

Grandma always said, never put all your eggs in one basket.

Grandma: not rich

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/616685-diversification-is-protection-against-ignorance-it-makes-little-sense-if

Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.

Buffet: rich

I'll listen to Buffet before I listen to Grandma concerning investing.

[jl2012]

Data from May to July 2014

Date	NAV ($)	Net	Est	Est Net	Est New	Actual
spaceholder		Assets	Holding	Buying	Invest	Holding
		(M$)	(XBT)	(XBT)	(M$)	(XBT)
29-Aug-14	49.74	53.82	106242	4	0.01
28-Aug-14	50.08	54.18	106238	3	0.00
27-Aug-14	50.46	54.59	106235	-16	0.00
26-Aug-14	49.81	53.89	106251	111	0.06
25-Aug-14	49.45	53.44	106140	-19	0.00
22-Aug-14	50.44	54.51	106159	-7	0.00
21-Aug-14	50.95	55.06	106166	121	0.06
20-Aug-14	48.34	52.18	106045	82	0.04
19-Aug-14	46.48	50.13	105963	-6	0.00
18-Aug-14	45.20	48.75	105969	-39	-0.01
15-Aug-14	49.20	53.07	106008	210	0.11
14-Aug-14	50.33	54.18	105798	3	0.00
13-Aug-14	53.51	57.60	105795	-36	-0.01
12-Aug-14	55.94	60.23	105831	13	0.01
11-Aug-14	56.99	61.35	105818	69	0.05
8-Aug-14	58.05	62.44	105749	-26	-0.01
7-Aug-14	57.37	61.72	105775	-1766	-1.03
6-Aug-14	57.08	62.43	107541	13	0.01
5-Aug-14	57.21	62.56	107528	-17	-0.01
4-Aug-14	57.69	63.09	107545	72	0.06
31-Jul-14	56.27	61.48	107473	4	0.01
30-Jul-14	56.46	61.68	107469	-7	0.00
29-Jul-14	57.32	62.62	107476	141	0.08
28-Jul-14	57.01	62.20	107335	49	0.04
25-Jul-14	58.89	64.21	107286	-6	0.00
24-Jul-14	59.34	64.70	107292	-7	0.00
23-Jul-14	60.82	66.31	107299	200	0.13
22-Jul-14	61.00	66.38	107099	122	0.08
21-Jul-14	60.84	66.13	106977	30	0.04
18-Jul-14	61.25	66.54	106947	3	0.00
17-Jul-14	60.72	65.96	106944	43	0.03
16-Jul-14	60.71	65.92	106901	397	0.25
15-Jul-14	61.11	66.10	106504	3	0.00
14-Jul-14	61.17	66.16	106501	59	0.05
11-Jul-14	61.24	66.19	106442	43	0.04
10-Jul-14	60.56	65.42	106399	53	0.03
9-Jul-14	61.24	66.12	106346	-269	-0.16
7-Jul-14	61.47	66.53	106615	-7	0.01
3-Jul-14	63.44	68.65	106622	-55	-0.03
2-Jul-14	63.55	68.80	106677	397	0.26
1-Jul-14	63.81	68.82	106280	82	0.06
30-Jun-14	61.19	65.94	106198	-19	0.00
27-Jun-14	57.21	61.65	106217	-6	0.00
26-Jun-14	55.92	60.26	106223	-7	0.00
25-Jun-14	56.29	60.66	106230	-16	0.00
24-Jun-14	57.79	62.28	106246	52	0.03
23-Jun-14	57.98	62.45	106194	20	0.02
20-Jun-14	58.26	62.73	106174	63	0.04
19-Jun-14	59.32	63.83	106111	-16	-0.01
18-Jun-14	59.90	64.46	106127	33	0.03
17-Jun-14	58.67	63.11	106094	3	0.00
16-Jun-14	58.47	62.89	106091	-29	0.00
13-Jun-14	58.42	62.84	106120	92	0.05
12-Jun-14	61.68	66.29	106028	-6	0.00
11-Jun-14	63.43	68.17	106034	-27	-0.01
10-Jun-14	64.34	69.16	106061	4	0.01
9-Jun-14	63.80	68.57	106057	50	0.04
6-Jun-14	64.51	69.29	106007	3	0.01
5-Jun-14	64.31	69.07	106004	53	0.04
4-Jun-14	63.12	67.75	105951	-46	-0.03
3-Jun-14	65.19	70.00	105997	299	0.20
2-Jun-14	62.76	67.20	105698	-88	-0.04
30-May-14	58.71	62.90	105786	-6	0.00
29-May-14	55.91	59.90	105792	131	0.07
28-May-14	56.26	60.20	105661	-65	-0.03
27-May-14	56.51	60.50	105726	320	0.20
23-May-14	52.18	55.68	105406	-7	0.00
22-May-14	50.09	53.45	105413	-16	-0.01
21-May-14	48.35	51.60	105429	-26	-0.01
20-May-14	46.28	49.40	105455	-46	-0.02
19-May-14	43.83	46.80	105501	-49	-0.01
16-May-14	43.91	46.90	105550	63	0.03
15-May-14	43.94	46.90	105487	369	0.16
14-May-14	43.53	46.30	105118	-66	-0.03
13-May-14	43.13	45.90	105184	93	0.04
12-May-14	43.17	45.90	105091	-108	-0.04
9-May-14	43.98	46.80	105199	3	0.01
8-May-14	43.61	46.40	105196	152	0.07
7-May-14	43.11	45.80	105044	4	0.01
6-May-14	42.08	44.70	105040	-27	-0.01
5-May-14	42.73	45.40	105067	-98	-0.04
2-May-14	44.20	47.00	105165	53	0.03
1-May-14	44.79	47.60	105112	1250	0.57

[JorgeStolfi]

They haven't posted their actual XBT holdings since April 30, is that correct? (They used to post about once a month before that.)

Does anyone have a copy of their actual Terms of Service?  I wonder whether they are required to hold all the clients' investment in XBT all the time?  Or can they hold up to X% of it in USD or other liquid assets that, at current market price, would be equivalent to that much BTC (perhaps with an extra Y% of safety margin)?

[jl2012]

They haven't posted their actual XBT holdings since April 30, is that correct? (They used to post about once a month before that.)

Yes. Even they updated the slides they didn't update this number since April: http://www.bitcointrust.co/thank-you-for-your-information/

[ensurance982]

Alright this is good, so the last week has been stable in terms of SecondMarket, and there even have been some buys. A good sign. I wonder whether the buying will increase as soon as the fall kicks in! What do you expect?

[minerpumpkin]

Alright this is good, so the last week has been stable in terms of SecondMarket, and there even have been some buys. A good sign. I wonder whether the buying will increase as soon as the fall kicks in! What do you expect?

Yes, very good indeed to see that "professional/big" investors are remaining confident and watch while many of the inexperienced "traders" are getting culled in the mean time. I wonder whether the Winklevoss ETF will be an even better investment vehicle!

[JorgeStolfi]

Alright this is good, so the last week has been stable in terms of SecondMarket, and there even have been some buys. A good sign. I wonder whether the buying will increase as soon as the fall kicks in! What do you expect?

Yes, very good indeed to see that "professional/big" investors are remaining confident and watch while many of the inexperienced "traders" are getting culled in the mean time. I wonder whether the Winklevoss ETF will be an even better investment vehicle!

Well, I see it differently: the maximum investment was on Aug/06 (108185 XBT) and it has shrunk a bit since then.  It has grown only 2% since May.  Their clients do not seem to be "professional/big" investors, but rather moderately well-off individuals, who would rather pay the SMBIT high fees and accept the 6-month lock than buy coins on their own.  And they are not buying anymore. 

GABI and the other upcoming funds (by Matonis, Winkles, Draper, ...) will be competing with SMBIT to some extent.  Will they fare better?

[minerpumpkin]

Alright this is good, so the last week has been stable in terms of SecondMarket, and there even have been some buys. A good sign. I wonder whether the buying will increase as soon as the fall kicks in! What do you expect?

Yes, very good indeed to see that "professional/big" investors are remaining confident and watch while many of the inexperienced "traders" are getting culled in the mean time. I wonder whether the Winklevoss ETF will be an even better investment vehicle!

Well, I see it differently: the maximum investment was on Aug/06 (108185 XBT) and it has shrunk a bit since then.  It has grown only 2% since May.  Their clients do not seem to be "professional/big" investors, but rather moderately well-off individuals, who would rather pay the SMBIT high fees and accept the 6-month lock than buy coins on their own.  And they are not buying anymore. 

GABI and the other upcoming funds (by Matonis, Winkles, Draper, ...) will be competing with SMBIT to some extent.  Will they fare better?

Hmm interesting stance. The price has experienced a wild ride since then, as well. I guess people still don't know whether BTC is over- or undervalued currently! When do you think that the other funds will go live? People do have very different expectations here, too...

[JorgeStolfi]

When do you think that the other funds will go live? People do have very different expectations here, too...

I have read that GABI will start accepting clients next Monday (Sep/01).  I have no idea about when and whether COIN will be approved. 

Pantera's PBP is already operating.  Malta's Exante fund (80'000 BTC) is already operating.  I don't know anything else about those or other funds.

(BTW, Jon Matonis seems to be an "evangelist" for the Exante fund, but may not be an owner/investor.)

[minerpumpkin]

When do you think that the other funds will go live? People do have very different expectations here, too...

I have read that GABI will start accepting clients next Monday (Sep/01).  I have no idea about when and whether COIN will be approved. 

Pantera's PBP is already operating.  Malta's Exante fund (80'000 BTC) is already operating.  I don't know anything else about those or other funds.

(BTW, Jon Matonis seems to be an "evangelist" for the Exante fund, but may not be an owner/investor.)

Huh, so the first party may begin next week... I'll keep my eyes peeled! Umm, why exactly are people speculating whether COIN will be approved? I thought this was more or less a sure thing and only a question of time, and now everyone seems to be worried that they go live at all!