GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer

[oda.krell]

Just a quick visualization of some of the data, for your (and my own) amusement...

Weighted daily price (Bitstamp) vs. Secondmarket 'Estimated Net Buying/Selling' (>100 BTC only),
from 2014-05-01 to 2014-10-13

Note that the Net Buying values probably have to be shifted left by a few days in reality, since they represent a net change that took place in the recent past.





(nb: price and net buying not on the same y scale.)

[wachtwoord]

Cool graph. Thanks! 

[gog1]

1464XBT bought last Friday. Bitcoin holding at ATH

Yeah, at least the big money is not cashing out ....... still wonder about who the big dumpers are along the way

[jl2012]

Net holding reduced by 1425XBT on 14 Oct 2014.

The the "Net Assets" figures of 9th and 10th Oct 2014 were both 39.15 million USD. That was probably a mistake as they forgot to update the Net Assets of 10th Oct.

Therefore, the "1464XBT buy" on 10th Oct might not be true. Same for the "1425XBT sell" on 14th Oct

[JorgeStolfi]

1464XBT bought last Friday. Bitcoin holding at ATH

Yeah, at least the big money is not cashing out ....... still wonder about who the big dumpers are along the way

That is about 600'000 USD. I would not call it "big money"; it could well be the life savings of a moderately well-paid professional, for example.   The whole fund is worth ~45 M USD.

[JorgeStolfi]

Does anyone know whether SMBIT accepts investments from US citizens/residents?

[BitAddict]

Net holding reduced by 1425XBT on 14 Oct 2014.

The the "Net Assets" figures of 9th and 10th Oct 2014 were both 39.15 million USD. That was probably a mistake as they forgot to update the Net Assets of 10th Oct.

Therefore, the "1464XBT buy" on 10th Oct might not be true. Same for the "1425XBT sell" on 14th Oct

Damn! 

[wachtwoord]

Net holding reduced by 1425XBT on 14 Oct 2014.

The the "Net Assets" figures of 9th and 10th Oct 2014 were both 39.15 million USD. That was probably a mistake as they forgot to update the Net Assets of 10th Oct.

Therefore, the "1464XBT buy" on 10th Oct might not be true. Same for the "1425XBT sell" on 14th Oct

Damn! 

Indeed, that's a shame. I wish we would have access to the figures of the two similar funds that have started (to compare and add up).

[BitChick]

Net holding reduced by 1425XBT on 14 Oct 2014.

The the "Net Assets" figures of 9th and 10th Oct 2014 were both 39.15 million USD. That was probably a mistake as they forgot to update the Net Assets of 10th Oct.

Therefore, the "1464XBT buy" on 10th Oct might not be true. Same for the "1425XBT sell" on 14th Oct

Damn!  

Indeed, that's a shame. I wish we would have access to the figures of the two similar funds that have started (to compare and add up).

Barry Silbert tweeted a vague warning about some selling because of the October 15th tax extension deadline.  I am fairly sure any selling before that is probably related.  Here is the tweet: https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/519120987334651905

And today's tweet even says, "tax selling is finally behind us" https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/522440627502723075

[BitAddict]

Net holding reduced by 1425XBT on 14 Oct 2014.

The the "Net Assets" figures of 9th and 10th Oct 2014 were both 39.15 million USD. That was probably a mistake as they forgot to update the Net Assets of 10th Oct.

Therefore, the "1464XBT buy" on 10th Oct might not be true. Same for the "1425XBT sell" on 14th Oct

Damn!  

Indeed, that's a shame. I wish we would have access to the figures of the two similar funds that have started (to compare and add up).

Barry Silbert tweeted a vague warning about some selling because of the October 15th tax extension deadline.  I am fairly sure any selling before that is probably related.  Here is the tweet: https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/519120987334651905

And today's tweet even says, "tax selling is finally behind us" https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/522440627502723075

That advice is true. But take in mind that Barry Silbert is bitcoin bullish no matter what (he need to get new clients to his investment fund). He also told Russia banning bitcoin was good, just before last big dump to $275 lol.

[BitChick]

Net holding reduced by 1425XBT on 14 Oct 2014.

The the "Net Assets" figures of 9th and 10th Oct 2014 were both 39.15 million USD. That was probably a mistake as they forgot to update the Net Assets of 10th Oct.

Therefore, the "1464XBT buy" on 10th Oct might not be true. Same for the "1425XBT sell" on 14th Oct

Damn!  

Indeed, that's a shame. I wish we would have access to the figures of the two similar funds that have started (to compare and add up).

Barry Silbert tweeted a vague warning about some selling because of the October 15th tax extension deadline.  I am fairly sure any selling before that is probably related.  Here is the tweet: https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/519120987334651905

And today's tweet even says, "tax selling is finally behind us" https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/522440627502723075

That advice is true. But take in mind that Barry Silbert is bitcoin bullish no matter what (he need to get new clients to his investment fund). He also told Russia banning bitcoin was good, just before last big dump to $275 lol.

I am sure he has his own motives behind his posts.  However, I appreciate his bullishness and hopefully he can steer the Bitcoin "ship" in a more positive direction.

[Melbustus]

...

Barry Silbert tweeted a vague warning about some selling because of the October 15th tax extension deadline.  I am fairly sure any selling before that is probably related.  Here is the tweet: https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/519120987334651905

And today's tweet even says, "tax selling is finally behind us" https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/522440627502723075

The problem with this theory is that the extension gives you until October 15th to *file*, but does not extend your time to pay at all:

An automatic 6-month extension to file does not extend the time to pay your tax. If you do not pay your tax by the original due date of your return, you will owe interest on the unpaid tax and may owe penalties.

http://www.irs.gov/instructions/i1040/ar01.html#d0e489


So this theory hinges on people filing the extension and either knowingly or unknowingly paying the tax late, with whatever interest and penalties that entails. That may indeed be happening, but Barry has never voiced an understanding that that would have to be the case, to my knowledge.

And keep in mind that IRS Notice 2014-21 came out in late March; ie, *before* the April 15th standard deadline: http://www.irs.gov/uac/Newsroom/IRS-Virtual-Currency-Guidance

[BuildTheFuture]

Price also tanked heading into Apr 15th. Worth noting.

[chriswilmer]

...

Barry Silbert tweeted a vague warning about some selling because of the October 15th tax extension deadline.  I am fairly sure any selling before that is probably related.  Here is the tweet: https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/519120987334651905

And today's tweet even says, "tax selling is finally behind us" https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/522440627502723075

The problem with this theory is that the extension gives you until October 15th to *file*, but does not extend your time to pay at all:

An automatic 6-month extension to file does not extend the time to pay your tax. If you do not pay your tax by the original due date of your return, you will owe interest on the unpaid tax and may owe penalties.

http://www.irs.gov/instructions/i1040/ar01.html#d0e489


So this theory hinges on people filing the extension and either knowingly or unknowingly paying the tax late, with whatever interest and penalties that entails. That may indeed be happening, but Barry has never voiced an understanding that that would have to be the case, to my knowledge.

And keep in mind that IRS Notice 2014-21 came out in late March; ie, *before* the April 15th standard deadline: http://www.irs.gov/uac/Newsroom/IRS-Virtual-Currency-Guidance

I think a lot of people filed for extensions because they didn't know how much they owed the IRS. The penalty is 0.5% per month in addition to the annualized 3% interest rate on what you owed for April 15th... in Bitcoin land, that kind of interest rate is basically nothing compared to volatility, so I'm sure many people didn't pay anything until Oct. 15th.

[BuildTheFuture]

Gambler personalities sometimes like to put off selling if they think price is too low (early April), hoping it will rebound later in the year.

[T-rage_11]

update?

[jl2012]

not much action

[jl2012]

2888XBT bought yesterday. Total holding at ATH. We should know whether this is a typo or not tomorrow

[BitAddict]

2888XBT bought yesterday. Total holding at ATH. We should know whether this is a typo or not tomorrow

They removed the 0.5% upfront buying fee. Maybe that's the reason they got some buyers yesterday.

[wachtwoord]

2888XBT bought yesterday. Total holding at ATH. We should know whether this is a typo or not tomorrow

They removed the 0.5% upfront buying fee. Maybe that's the reason they got some buyers yesterday.

Could very well be it. Very good entry point for whoever took it.