FNG
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November 05, 2014, 04:20:38 PM |
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+7716XBT. Mistake again? We will see tomorrow
wtf...
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bobabouey2
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November 05, 2014, 04:29:50 PM |
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If you take the sum of the changes in estimated BTX Sep 24 to Nov 3, the total change is 418 BTX. Out of the Nov 3 total of 106840, that is 0.39%.
Also, leaving aside the big errors that appear to be reversed the next day, there is only one change, on Oct 3, that is more than 100. That one was for 356, and thus comprises most of the total change.
So in addition to the big errors that appear to be reversed the next day, I would posit that everything else is just minor factors in their calculations that aren't visible to us, or small errors. And that the fund has been closed for both purchases and sales due to an SEC quiet period commencing after Sep 23.
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BitAddict
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November 05, 2014, 05:03:29 PM |
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+7716XBT. Mistake again? We will see tomorrow
Would be nice if true.
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derpinheimer
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November 05, 2014, 05:19:12 PM |
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Interesting. Seems like it could be true considering all the large buys yesterday.
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BitChick
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November 05, 2014, 05:26:35 PM |
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Interesting. Seems like it could be true considering all the large buys yesterday.
Hopefully they don't change their minds and sell.
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1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
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rebuilder
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November 05, 2014, 05:46:40 PM |
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+7716XBT. Mistake again? We will see tomorrow
Has anyone checked for correllation between secondmarket published data and market movements? If a correllation exists, does the market tend to lead or follow the publication time?
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Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us. --------------------------------------------------------------- Too many low-quality posts? Mods not keeping things clean enough? Self-moderated threads let you keep signature spammers and trolls out!
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wachtwoord
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November 05, 2014, 10:02:41 PM |
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+7716XBT. Mistake again? We will see tomorrow
Has anyone checked for correllation between secondmarket published data and market movements? If a correllation exists, does the market tend to lead or follow the publication time? Good point and probably it. I have no time to cross reference this now so I'm just going to curiously check back here tomorrow
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JorgeStolfi
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November 06, 2014, 01:46:45 AM |
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Has anyone checked for correllation between secondmarket published data and market movements? If a correllation exists, does the market tend to lead or follow the publication time?
Back in april I made the following plot, using the data from this thread: The bitcoin price is 10 times the nominal share value (top red line). The the pink circles are the actual BTC holdings, as published by SMBIT every now and then. The blue ascending curve that interpolates those circles is their BTC holdings day by day, as estimated by the Original Poster. The steps and jerks in that line may be artifacts of the interpolation method. I don't think it is viable to correlate their buys with the market movements: the data is too coarse and uncertain for that.
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Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
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jl2012 (OP)
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November 06, 2014, 02:36:01 AM |
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It seems that the 7k change was not an error. For the change in NAV calculation, I guess it won't affect my estimation since the change in NAV will also proportionally affect the amount of Total Asset. Anyway, we can't confirm until they announce the actual BTC holding amount again.
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Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY) LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC) PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
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Michael Robinson
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November 10, 2014, 04:42:01 AM |
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If this 7629 buy on November 4th ends up being a dud, this thread needs to quit being updated. People believe Second Market has insider tips, and therefore buy/sell when they see Second Market doing the same.
People are literally losing money on these frequent discrepancies, if you can't get it right....STOP.
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Patel
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November 10, 2014, 04:42:51 AM |
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People are literally losing money on these frequent discrepancies, if you can't get it right....stop.
Then don't use the data. Simple.
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Michael Robinson
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November 10, 2014, 04:45:40 AM |
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People are literally losing money on these frequent discrepancies, if you can't get it right....stop.
Then don't use the data. Simple. I'm sorry, but "If our data is inaccurrate, then don't use it" isn't a justifiable defense. If your data is meaningless or misleading, you shouldn't be posting it. This thread is starting to become the "boy who cried wolf", it is inaccurate so often nowadays, you don't even believe it when you see it. It's become a joke. And to continue to post bogus data is dangerous and immoral.
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nioc
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November 10, 2014, 04:59:06 AM |
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Maybe you should use the data directly from secondmarket.
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JorgeStolfi
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November 10, 2014, 06:08:25 AM |
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I'm sorry, but "If our data is inaccurrate, then don't use it" isn't a justifiable defense. If your data is meaningless or misleading, you shouldn't be posting it. This thread is starting to become the "boy who cried wolf", it is inaccurate so often nowadays, you don't even believe it when you see it. It's become a joke. And to continue to post bogus data is dangerous and immoral.
The thread owner is doing his best to interpret scant data that SMBIT publishes. If that data is inaccurate or misleading, blame SMBIT. I don't recall he ever presented this site as anything else, in particular as a trading guide. And, by the way, SMBIT is supposed to buy or sell 0.1 BTC whenever the public buys or liquidates one of the fund's shares. Thus, them buying or selling is independent of what they think the price will do, it only reflects what their customers think. They are no more likely to have "insider info" than the traders at the exchanges. This data is very valuable as an indication of the public acceptance of bitcoin funds like SMBIT. I wish there was similar data for PBP and other funds. I hope the thread owner continues to post it.
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Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
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oda.krell
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November 10, 2014, 10:48:27 AM |
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@jl2012
Hope you're not taking this newbie account's accusations serious.
You're doing the absolutely best that can be done with the incomplete information that is available.
If someone is dumb enough to run a 1:1 strategy following the reverse engineered suspected account changes of the fund, that's his problem alone. Everyone else with two brain cells to rub together will use it a bit more cautiously: as an (imperfect) estimation of what the currently largest fund with a Bitcoin collateral is doing. Nothing more, nothing less.
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Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
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brg444
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November 10, 2014, 10:57:22 AM |
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so did we get confirmation that the 7k buy was legit?
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"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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oda.krell
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November 10, 2014, 11:19:21 AM |
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so did we get confirmation that the 7k buy was legit?
So far, the 7k buy is just the result of jl2012's calculations, but at least it wasn't reversed a few days later like before, so it's more likely it is not a mistake. Confirmation will come if and when the fund officially lists its total BTC holding, which they seem to do about monthly, I think. Someone correct me please if I'm wrong about that.
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Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
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jl2012 (OP)
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November 10, 2014, 12:31:11 PM |
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so did we get confirmation that the 7k buy was legit?
So far, the 7k buy is just the result of jl2012's calculations, but at least it wasn't reversed a few days later like before, so it's more likely it is not a mistake. Confirmation will come if and when the fund officially lists its total BTC holding, which they seem to do about monthly, I think. Someone correct me please if I'm wrong about that. They have just updated the actual holding on 1 Nov. The last time they did so was in April, and monthly before that. So it's difficult to predict when will they update again. Actual I thought they would never update again. It was pointed out that on the same day of the "7k buy" SMBIT changed the price source for the NAV. It shouldn't have such effect but I can't rule out the possibility without the next actual holding figure. Anyway, all data shown in this thread were publicly available. The formulas I use are also available. If there were any errors, it must be the fault of SMBIT as I always double check when there is a big movement. I never presented this as a trading guide and if someone gets burnt with the faulty data from SMBIT, blame them. I'll certainly keep updating this. I'm not updating as frequent as before because the lack of meaningful movement.
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Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY) LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC) PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
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hongl3liang
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November 11, 2014, 11:18:35 PM |
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it seems they just bought more.
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