Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events

[coinjedi]

For some bets the odds are just not worth it (e.g., the extra-terrestrials bet, you'll lose money no matter if your bet wins or loses with the current odds on it),

Hey Stephen, I am surprised that one of our most active users didn't noticed that we only get a cut from the losing side. You NEVER lose if your prediction is right, you always get more than what you put albeit a possibly small amount. This was the first rule we put while structuring the fees.

[coinjedi]

There was a new bet listing but it is making some assumptions that leaves it unclear.


Statement: Mitt Romney's tax returns will be released before the election day.
Description: Romney's tax returns will be released before election day, November 6th, 2012, regardless of how or why they were released.

 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=636

His 2010 returns were released earlier this year:

 - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/romney-2010-tax-return.html

His 2011 returns are the subject of interest.  Neither the bet statement nor the description makes this clear.

Fixed. Thanks!

[Stephen Gornick]

For some bets the odds are just not worth it (e.g., the extra-terrestrials bet, you'll lose money no matter if your bet wins or loses with the current odds on it),

Hey Stephen, I am surprised that one of our most active users didn't noticed that we only get a cut from the losing side. You NEVER lose if your prediction is right, you always get more than what you put albeit a possibly small amount. This was the first rule we put while structuring the fees.

Doh!  Brain fart ... I should have remembered that.  So I still can make money betting against ET, awesome!

[coinjedi]

So I still can make money betting against ET, awesome!

This will be a particularly interesting move for someone with that avatar

[giszmo]

Please allow the bet maker to link a thread in this or any other forum if you don't intend to allow people speculate about things on the site itself. It's much more fun to bet then.

(Also please allow to bet arbitrarily small amounts. If not, please measure how many people that got the error "bets have to be a multiple of 0.01" actually opted to bet more rather than less or 0. I doubt that your server would collapse if it had to compute some more bets.)

[coinjedi]

Please allow the bet maker to link a thread in this or any other forum if you don't intend to allow people speculate about things on the site itself. It's much more fun to bet then.

You can put a link in the description at submission, or ask us to add one afterwards via email. Are you asking for something else?

Also there is a new subreddit for the site created by some users.

[giszmo]

Please allow the bet maker to link a thread in this or any other forum if you don't intend to allow people speculate about things on the site itself. It's much more fun to bet then.

You can put a link in the description at submission, or ask us to add one afterwards via email. Are you asking for something else?

Also there is a new subreddit for the site created by some users.

Well, maybe "allow" was the wrong term. An extra optional field to encourage people to put a discussion link was what I meant. Also I see many non-link urls. Maybe you want to linkify urls in descriptions?

[Mr. Coinman]

New listing.

Title: Apple, Inc. will announce a new television set before October 31, 2012.

Description: It has been long rumored that Apple, Inc will release their own television set. Some say it will feature full voice-recognition via Siri, among other features.

With the September 12th, 2012 Apple event, and another October 2012 event expected to occur, will the Apple TV set be announced before October 31, 2012?

Articles on the subject:

NY Times

iDownload Blog

PC World

This statement is true if Apple, Inc. announces a new television set before October 31, 2012.

Opening date: Sept. 10, 2012
Bet deadline: Oct. 3, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: Oct. 31, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Category: Technology
Total agree bets: 0.00
Total disagree bets: 1.00
Total weighted agree bets: 0.000
Total weighted disagree bets: 552.738

Apple, Inc. will announce a new television set before October 31, 2012

[freeAgent]

Overall, the site made a good impression to me. I'll use it again as soon as there's something I want to bet about.

There are some topics that I wouldn't normally follow but with a minimum bet of only 0.1 BTC (worth a little over $1) it is easy to put some money on it and then get the e-mail alert on the outcome when the bet ends.

For some bets the odds are just not worth it (e.g., the extra-terrestrials bet, you'll lose money no matter if your bet wins or loses with the current odds on it), [edit: I'm an idiot, winning bets always split 90% of the losing bets, no more no less.]. but others are set up to run right through to the event date, and thus it becomes almost a guaranteed win, just with a really low payout.

This whole predictions market captures my interest in a unique way!

I'm a big fan of the site.  I've placed several bets so far and haven't had any problems.  I do wish there was more activity, though.  A lot of the bets are just about the BTC/USD exchange rate, which I find kind of silly.  I'll probably increase my use in the future.

[giszmo]

A lot of the bets are just about the BTC/USD exchange rate, which I find kind of silly.

People in speculation sub forum telling what the price will be 2 months from now is much sillier. On a bet you get the best prediction you can get. If you feel like you know it better, then you can maybe even improve the accuracy of the prediction.

[elux]

A Higgs Boson particle will be observed before the end of 2012: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=272

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/135756-cerns-higgs-boson-discovery-passes-peer-review-becomes-actual-science

[byronbb]

I got a few in my sig 

[coinjedi]

I'm a big fan of the site.  I've placed several bets so far and haven't had any problems.  I do wish there was more activity, though.  A lot of the bets are just about the BTC/USD exchange rate, which I find kind of silly.  I'll probably increase my use in the future.

Glad to hear that!

[coinjedi]

A Higgs Boson particle will be observed before the end of 2012: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=272

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/135756-cerns-higgs-boson-discovery-passes-peer-review-becomes-actual-science

Payments are processed. Thanks.

[Stephen Gornick]

Thought this might be of interest to some watching this thread:

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

 - http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/159420411X   <-- This title will be released on September 27, 2012.

[Mr. Coinman]

Just a heads up, I'm getting this error message now whenever I try to visit my profile.

[giszmo]

Bet on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=671

A bet was placed with fraudful acquired bitcoins, most likely 300 BTC by nraz or NCKRAZZE or Nick.

nraz, is the sock puppet of nckrazze.
Greetz

Post history:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=66746;sa=showPosts

His lending thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=81927.0
He owes about 10.000 BTC to his lenders (deleted the OP)

I understand that you only have a legal obligation with Nick, but supporting him by sending those funds must be illegal in your country too.
Therefore i ask to freeze the funds immediately until this situation has been resolved.

Uhm, interesting
Ok, I have 1BTC in that bet from being more or less the first to take the agree side. Does your post mean I won? I mean I didn't investigate the situation but felt somehow save to side with the agree position given 300:0 in the bet at that time.
What is your proof about sock puppets? Would that mean that bets of bitcoin should freeze bets in the future in case they might come from shady business? I did not have to register with my real name and wonder how they should enforce such checks.

[giszmo]

The bet itsself is not the problem, as it is not based on NCKRAZZEs business, but Vescuderos (which is a victim of Nick by accident too)
Its more the problem that Nick fraudulently acquired the funds to place the bet on Vescudero.
That is also the reason, why he has been given the scammer tag on this forum.

So you suggest to "only" remove 300BTC from the 307BTC side of a 307BTC vs. 27BTC bet? Basically the 300BTC that were the initial bet that were part of the bet submission? How is that "The bet itsself is not the problem"?

[Stephen Gornick]

A bet was placed with fraudful acquired bitcoins

So you are asking Bets Of Bitcoin to determine the source for the coins from the large bet (or bets) made on the "disagree" side of that bet?

I mean I didn't investigate the situation but felt somehow save to side with the agree position given 300:0 in the bet at that time.

Exactly the problem.  If the outcome on the bet statement ends favoring those that bet "Agree", then freezing the 300 BTC is taking that amount not from the scammer that placed the losing bet but from those who placed bets that ultimately ended up winners.  And as giszmo describes, wagers on that bet statement might not even have been made without the bet being so lopsided as it was.  

Would that mean that bets of bitcoin should freeze bets in the future in case they might come from shady business?  I did not have to register with my real name and wonder how they should enforce such checks.

That would be quite impossible to determine, right?

I hope there is not even a hint of applying "taint" here.  Bitcoins are fungible, whether or not they come from funds that were obtained from a scam.

[Stephen Gornick]

My idea - freeze it. Sort out things.

That punishes the innocent (those who are owed coins from their winning bets).  That would be, in my opnion, unacceptable for Bets Of Bitcoin to do.

I have coins with NCKRAZZE, therefore my interest.

Then talk to NCKRAZZE about getting your funds back.