rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[chessnut]

No, the china news was THE hype, and when the news is 100% confirmed, evan as exchange halts deposits, the market rallies???

This is a text book reversal, the panic selling is over, spent, gone, exhausted, caput!
 
"I sold, game over" - that is a give away!

This is a text book reversal. watch it before your very eyes, a rally comes out of no where, and like a hot knife through butter eats resistance.

[AnonyMint]

Did you read the article or not?

[chessnut]

Did you read the article or not?

yes I did read the article. he said it will form a base in the next quarter, not crash. as for the range he describes, why would you believe he has the formula to predict $350 bottom?  436 bottom has given us all the signals we need.
all the past bubbles have consolidated in a wedge. thats a sequence of 5. if the price dropped to 350, this one would break that rule. wedges have significant meaning in consolidation.

[AnonyMint]

http://www.wired.com/2014/03/bitcoin-currency_martin/

Bitcoin Is Pointless as a Currency, But It Could Change the World Anyway

Why Bitcoin May Be Different

If history is a guide, it is here that bitcoin’s real potential lies: in its hybrid payments technology. As Europe’s medieval merchant-bankers proved, a brilliant new means of recording and verifying money transfers can indeed be a revolutionary event — not just in economic, but in political terms.

The existing, bank-based payments system is expensive and antediluvian — but also profitable and therefore jealously guarded by its powerful owners. Other technologies co-exist — such as cash payment face-to-face, or the developing world staple of hawala for international transfers — but they cannot seriously compete with banks. If Bitcoin’s technology is as cheap, as scalable, and as secure as its advocates claim, it may be different.

That last point, of course, is crucial. One reason that cash, that most archaic of payments technologies, still exists, is because it really is anonymous. Anonymity in transactions can be abused, of course. But it remains a basic civil liberty. Payments systems that use ledgers rarely offer the same assurance. Efficiency and economy are nice to have: but not at the cost of our right to privacy.
If history is a guide, it is here that bitcoin’s real potential lies: in its hybrid payments technology.

It was thirty-five years ago — long before bitcoin, the internet, or even the Macintosh — that the French philosopher Jean-Francois Lyotard warned that “the computerization of society…could become the ‘dream’ instrument for controlling and regulating the market system, extended to include knowledge itself and governed exclusively by the performativity principle.” An unreasonably dystopian vision, perhaps, given the enormous increases in prosperity and individual freedom that the web has brought. But it is only now that computerization is transforming money — the most basic institution of all in our market societies. So it is a dystopia we must make all the more certain does not become reality.

[AnonyMint]

Did you read the article or not?

yes I did read the article. he said it will form a base in the next quarter, not crash. as for the range he describes, why would you believe he has the formula to predict $350 bottom?  436 bottom has given us all the signals we need.
all the past bubbles have consolidated in a wedge. thats a sequence of 5. if the price dropped to 350, this one would break that rule. wedges have significant meaning in consolidation.

Did you read his points about why there is now more structural selling? Specifically that there are too many retailers and retailers convert immediately to fiat. And consumers are not growing as fast. Because Bitcoin is wonderful for merchants (no chargebacks) but sucks for consumers .

[chessnut]

Did you read the article or not?

yes I did read the article. he said it will form a base in the next quarter, not crash. as for the range he describes, why would you believe he has the formula to predict $350 bottom?  436 bottom has given us all the signals we need.
all the past bubbles have consolidated in a wedge. thats a sequence of 5. if the price dropped to 350, this one would break that rule. wedges have significant meaning in consolidation.

Did you read his points about why there is now more structural selling? Specifically that there are too many retailers and retailers convert immediately to fiat. And consumers are not growing as fast. Because Bitcoin is wonderful for merchants (no chargebacks) but sucks for consumers .

dont forget that the mother of all uses of bitcoin will be money transfer. That could be organised in months. anything to do with retailers and consumers have never had an impact on the market. the market cap is speculative.

[AnonyMint]

Did you read the article or not?

yes I did read the article. he said it will form a base in the next quarter, not crash. as for the range he describes, why would you believe he has the formula to predict $350 bottom?  436 bottom has given us all the signals we need.
all the past bubbles have consolidated in a wedge. thats a sequence of 5. if the price dropped to 350, this one would break that rule. wedges have significant meaning in consolidation.

Did you read his points about why there is now more structural selling? Specifically that there are too many retailers and retailers convert immediately to fiat. And consumers are not growing as fast. Because Bitcoin is wonderful for merchants (no chargebacks) but sucks for consumers .

dont forget that the mother of all uses of bitcoin will be money transfer. That could be organised in months. anything to do with retailers and consumers have never had an impact on the market. the market cap is speculative.

Marginal flows.

[GigaCoin]

I kind of assumed that in order for technicals to get some harmony we'd have to get close to April 2013's ATH. However the markets seem to refuse to go below $400 even in the gravest situations.

Uncertainty remains in regards to China, does it even matter ? In a way yes but will Bitcoin go below $400? seems more and more unlikely.

[sgbett]

Propaganda. Have you followed what Larry Summers said? They want digital currency so they can easily confiscate. The establishment is supporting Bitcoin because they can more easily track where all the money is.

I have not, but will look for it when I have time. I think the overall reaction of the government towards cryptos is going to turn out to be very complex. And fascinating. And one thing to keep in mind, is that there will be no unified reaction, because "the government" is run by lots of people with conflicting agendas. With campaigns funded by more people with different agendas. And varying degrees of technical sophistication.

They are trial ballooning different ways to bring the world onto a digital ledger so they can confiscate by pressing a button. Off chain on Bitcoin will be the mechanism to achieve this control.

They have nothing to fear from Bitcoin, because one pool already controls 50% of the mining. They could easily blacklist coins tomorrow if they needed to.

Now they just to manage their baby well to keep you all supporting their desired outcome of slavery.

Proof is in the facts. Bitcoin is not decentralized. You all are controlled by propaganda. The mining is already controllable by the government.

The key now is to manage it so you all don't wake up and move to an anonymous coin. To keep you all locked in by your greed and the thought the largest market size is best.

I have contemplated what sort of technical battle would ensue if the government decided to take explicit control of the blockchain.

For the sake of argument, suppose the government announced that all miners had to be "licensed" or "approved" or some such thing. How could the crypto community fight this? I suppose the community could fork the blockchain to make a branch run only by miners that were not government sponsored. Perhaps, there could be some underground network of anarcho-miners who are required to pledge their allegiance to the Ghost of Satoshi to become part of the network. There would ALWAYS be people willing to risk their lives to run this network. So I don't think the government could kill the network. What they could do, is prosecute people who are caught using the "unapproved" bitcoin blockchain. They'd probably have to crack down pretty hard. And whether they would be successful, I dunno.

Another question: what if two (or more) governments battle for control of the blockchain, so no one gets 51%? Does that mean Satoshi wins?

The U.S. government moves very slowly. If Bitcoin succeeds, the time in which that will happen will be too short for the government to fully recognize the threat and issue an effective policy to oppose it before it (Bitcoin) becomes deeply entrenched in the economy and its benefits are widely perceived. At the point, the political opposition to such a move would be too great.

The govt isn't reacting. The govt (by proxy) invented bitcoin.

[AnonyMint]

It could grind much lower than $300. We could be in for another brutal bear market, takes us down to $80.

I see only bull traps. We need to humble the bulls until they capitulate and realize there is serious problem with asymmetry in the Bitcoin technology and ecosystem.

[chessnut]

It could grind much lower than $300. We could be in for another brutal bear market, takes us down to $80.

It could. but you need an argument for that to be stronger that the current reversal signal. I dont think it is at all likely, and wishful thinking.

I am following the game plan that we all agreed on 4 months ago. I seem to be one of the few who has not forgotten.

[MatTheCat]

You are unable to comprehend what aminorex is writing. His posts are not drivel, and apparently it is just way over your IQ range or perhaps your area of mental interest and attention span.

Risto's posts often lack depth, which is why simpletons like them. He is correct on the main point which is BTC will bottom then continue up. That is probably all you need to know.

The crucial thing is, that aminorex has been persistently wrong on the one thing I care about the most when reading this forum. Thus extremely complex things that are way over my attention span and IQ level, yet whose general conclusions are nearly always proven wrong, are in my books.....drivel.

Oh yeah...and regarding your other post about my 'adoration' for Risto. I should let you know that I happen to be in complete disagreement with his assessment at this point in time, but I find that his opinions on Bitcoin are valuable nontheless.

[AnonyMint]

This is why it is going lower, much, much lower:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20131211005909/en/BitPay-Exceeds-100000000-Bitcoin-Transactions-Processed#.Uzp95qIryho

processed over $100 million in transactions this year, and has increased its merchant base to over 15,500 approved merchants in 200 countries

http://seekingalpha.com/news/1465461-bitcoin-bitpay-volume-triples-m-m-european-regulators-weigh-in

BitPay volume triples M/M in November after the roll-out of a new pricing plan and integration with Shopify. Transaction volume tripled during the same period

Thus using an geometric series, I can estimate their December sales were $40 million, January, $120 million, February $360 million, March over a $1 billion. Now surely their Xmas surge was greater than normal M/M growth, but you can clearly see this is much larger now and very significant.

The more success Bitpay has, the worse for Bitcoin. Because Bitpay is all about liquidating BTC from investors (not bringing in proportionally new customers to the ecosystem).

How could we have missed that! (Slams forehead into the wall)

I saw the silver chart pattern indicating a long grind lower ahead, and I saw the asymmetry in appeal for merchants vs. customers, but I didn't put 2+2 together.

The Gyft owner has a bullish bias so that is why he is saying $350. In fact, markets don't work that way. They have momentum and overshoot either upwards or downwards.

Bitcoin is pointed down now and it will be a vicious cycle that feeds on itself. It is structural and we have to go down and restart from a low equilibrium.

[chessnut]

This is why it is going lower, much, much lower:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20131211005909/en/BitPay-Exceeds-100000000-Bitcoin-Transactions-Processed#.Uzp95qIryho

The more success Bitpay has, the worse for Bitcoin. Because Bitpay is all about liquidating BTC.

How could we have missed that! (Slams forehead into the wall)

I saw the silver chart pattern indicating a long grind lower ahead, and I saw the asymmetry in appeal for merchants vs. customers, but I didn't put 2+2 together.

The Gyft owner has a bullish bias so that is why he is saying $350. In fact, markets don't work that way. They have momentum and overshoot either upwards or downwards.

Bitcoin is pointed down now and it will be a vicious cycle that feeds on itself. It is structural and we have to go down and restart from a low equilibrium.

the fact is, merchants and reatailers still have no effect on price. even overstock is a drop n the sea.

sorry!

[AnonyMint]

On the margins they do which can determine sentiment and thus price direction, which thus determines sentiment and thus price direction, etc..

Until we reach the overshoot wherein speculative bullishness can sustainably exceed that downward selling.

Remember velocity (exponent 1) is more important than position (exponent 0), and acceleration (inertia, exponent 2) is more important than velocity.

It is not just merchants. It is also miners who have lower profit margins so they need to sell more of the coins. It is also many n00bs that bought at high prices and can't hodl on forever if price continues to lag. You would be surprised how many people are expecting to spend their gains on upcoming expenses or needs. Some people even go into debt to invest. This is the nature of bubbles.

[windjc]

Could someone please rename this thread the "Anonymint Wall Observer - Non Quality TA Thread"?

[spiderbrain]

Could someone please rename this thread the "Anonymint Wall Observer - Non Quality TA Thread"?

=D

[ErisDiscordia]

When do we just shut up and stop questioning you?  

Never, hopefully.

We should always question Risto and everyone else. That being said, we should be paying attention to his great track record in predicting the btc future (I'm ignoring his old 300K/coin by the end of 2013 prediction )

Also I'm really happy to see that Anonymint has decided to post his thoughts in a much more approachable and readable way!

When he first started posting, his posts hinted at an obvious high degree of intelligence and analytical skills, as well as a complex and coherent vision. But his style of posting (long-winded posts, referencing his other posts in a never ending loop) was very hard to digest and his constant ad hominem attacks and one-upmanship made it hard to stay motivated to read through all of that - which is why I just kept poking fun at him and didn't engage him in any meaningful way. So - I'm very glad that here we are now, having a constructive discussion with just a minimum of personal attacks and the like.

Having followed this thread from page 1 I now feel I have a better grasp of what Anonymint is trying to tell us. It certainly seems self-consistent and plausible upon first inspection. The one thing I keep wondering while reading his posts is the competence of centralized institutions, which he seems to hold in rather high regard. For Bitcoin to have been created and implemented in a way and with motives he is describing (which certainly make sense!) one would have to assume a very high degree of competence from the players that implemented said scheme. I have great troubles viewing centralized hierarchical institutions as competent in the sense of being capable of appropriate responses to feedback, for the simple fact of how the information flow gets distorted while flowing through a hierarchical system, thus providing the governing entity with confusing and outright false information on which to base their decisions on. Maybe NSA spying and data collection techniques have helped alleviate this problem inherent in centralized entities? I would be interested to hear Anonymints thoughts on why he puts such faith in the competence of the ruling elites.

Once again thanks to everyone for the fun and enlightening discussion.

[Bagatell]

I would be interested to hear Anonymints thoughts on why he puts such faith in the competence of the ruling elites.

In another thread perhaps?

[AnonyMint]

This is why it is going lower, much, much lower:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20131211005909/en/BitPay-Exceeds-100000000-Bitcoin-Transactions-Processed#.Uzp95qIryho

processed over $100 million in transactions this year, and has increased its merchant base to over 15,500 approved merchants in 200 countries

http://seekingalpha.com/news/1465461-bitcoin-bitpay-volume-triples-m-m-european-regulators-weigh-in

BitPay volume triples M/M in November after the roll-out of a new pricing plan and integration with Shopify. Transaction volume tripled during the same period

Thus using an geometric series, I can estimate their December sales were $40 million, January, $120 million, February $360 million, March over a $1 billion. Now surely their Xmas surge was greater than normal M/M growth, but you can clearly see this is much larger now and very significant.

Oh fuck look what just happened under our nose while we were not paying attention!

https://www.goldsilverbitcoin.com/bitpay-worlds-first-zero-transaction-fee-payment-processing/

BitPay’s new model, however, asks for $30 per month per merchant, with zero additional fees. This is unprecedented in payment processing space, and will certainly send shockwaves through various payment processing spaces.

Both BitPay and Coinbase represent the world’s first zero-fee payment processors, driving home how revolutionary modern payment methods are.

Visionaries who invested in BitPay include Trace Mayer, Peter Thiel and Max Keiser.

So who is paying those high fees? We the customers in the exchange rate!!! And liquidating our investment!

Fuck we've been sucked into a fiat vortex by that same bastard Peter Thiel who angel funded Facebook and Paypal.

This is war. I'm livid. It is time to get serious.