rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[creekbore]

Could someone please rename this thread the "Anonymint Wall Observer - Non Quality TA Thread"?

=D

Well, I learn a great deal from AnonyMint and want to thank him for taking the time and patience to respond to my questions.  He contributes a great deal and at least responds to questions (Paddington stares for you Risto) -- it makes a refreshing change from the uninformed dick-waving most here resort to.

@MatTheCat...I wouldn't take the comments about your IQ too personally, I think Anony's patience had been tested by own vast stupidity and endless questions

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[rpietila]

Moderator action - this thread is now proceeding at a rate of 200+ posts per day and it affects readability.

I will impose a 10 posts per 24 hours limit on everyone, which lets everyone decide for themselves which posts are most important.

For those with an account less than 6 months old, the limit is 3 posts per 24 hours.

Although I like the high level of discussion, there is a certain amount of repetition here. This measure allows us to take some time off reading and writing to this thread, makes it easier for the lurkers to be up-to-date, and is not intended to lessen the quality at all.

[znaky]

So who is paying those high fees? We the customers in the exchange rate!!! And liquidating our investment!

Fuck we've been sucked into a fiat vortex by that same bastard Peter Thiel who angel funded Facebook and Paypal.

This is war. I'm livid. It is time to get serious.

Usually I like what you are writing. You have interesting thoughts about the need for anonymization in cryptocurrency and the comming ecnonmic collapse.

Now it feels like you are just spreading FUD. You say "we the customers" when you dont even own any coins and have no intention to be a bitcoin customer. You use a strong language and insult people. It feels like the most important thing for you is to have a strong opinion more than understand reality.

[rpietila]

Oh fuck look what just happened under our nose while we were not paying attention!

https://www.goldsilverbitcoin.com/bitpay-worlds-first-zero-transaction-fee-payment-processing/

So who is paying those high fees? We the customers in the exchange rate!!! And liquidating our investment!

Fuck we've been sucked into a fiat vortex by that same bastard Peter Thiel who angel funded Facebook and Paypal.

(The article is from the beginning of 2013-11-11, so almost a complete boom-bust cycle ago). I don't see the evil here. Everybody is free to liquidate their investment or use bitcoin as a currency, or do both.

Money has different functions, among which the important ones are:

Store of value

If you have a wealth management plan (I had ever since I made my first FIM 10,000, and it has been very elaborate since EUR 40,000), you allocate your assets to different categories that serve different purposes and provide upside and security in different scenarios. What you use as payment is completely different, although it is usually practical to have at least a small balance in the currencies you transact with.

Means of payment

Payment amounts are quoted in different currencies and you can typically pay in any currency with the use of conversion, which may be automatic or manual. What you own does not determine your means of transaction, unless it is a very big one in which case it might carry additional liquidity, tax or hassle considerations. You are free to use whatever currency as your unit of accounting, regardless of the country's fiat, or the allocation of your assets.

Thus, the rise in the use of something as a quote currency or a transaction currency, can at most be irrelevant to its value, but typically is positive, and the following statement

The more success Bitpay has, the worse for Bitcoin. Because Bitpay is all about liquidating BTC from investors (not bringing in proportionally new customers to the ecosystem).

is absurd and wrong.

Bitcoin is pointed down now and it will be a vicious cycle that feeds on itself. It is structural and we have to go down and restart from a low equilibrium.

It is impossible to be 100% certain of anything. But a tendency in your writings seems to be that once you recognize something that in your assessment is a threat to Bitcoin, it means that the price action should follow immediately following your enlightenment. Since the Bitcoin economy is composed of perhaps a million actors, with many holding significant Bitcoin and/or fiat balances, your individual timing in understanding matters is not actually that important.

The beauty of the 5.25-year trendline with exponential fit (R^2=0.93 which is pretty darn good) is that it takes into account every worry of every person who has ever owned or not owned bitcoins. I put more weight on that than the individual worries of a single person.

It almost sounds like that you are first time experiencing a major low in bitcoin exchange rate.

[rpietila]

LOL, the moderation did not seem to be too necessary as forum is mostly down today

There is emerging evidence of a green candle (6h), which is with a higher volume that the nearby red ones. If we get more of these in the following 2-3 days, it might add to the conviction that we just passed the bottom. Though volume can be faked.

[jmw74]

Did you read his points about why there is now more structural selling? Specifically that there are too many retailers and retailers convert immediately to fiat. And consumers are not growing as fast. Because Bitcoin is wonderful for merchants (no chargebacks) but sucks for consumers .

I find this explanation questionable at best.  While he's correct that retailer adoption is outpacing consumer adoption, and that retailers immediately sell their bitcoin, I don't think that creates selling pressure.

The reason is that people who buy on overstock or tigerdirect are just buying more bitcoin to replace what they spent.  They originally bought the bitcoin as an investment, they are excited to be able to use it for something, but they don't want to exit their position.

I don't have any solid numbers to support this assertion, but I don't think anyone does.  The takeaway is that the selling pressure is lower when you take into account the behavior of current retail bitcoin customers.

[Buffer Overflow]

The reason is that people who buy on overstock or tigerdirect are just buying more bitcoin to replace what they spent.  They originally bought the bitcoin as an investment, they are excited to be able to use it for something, but they don't want to exit their position.

I always buy back the same or exceeding the amount I just spent. It's a rule I've always stuck to over the years.

[aminorex]

The crucial thing is, that aminorex has been persistently wrong on the one thing I care about the most when reading this forum.

I rarely comment on short term price movements, which I think is your primary if not exclusive interest.  I am not consistently wrong on that when I do.  If I were, I would long since have learned to autofade.  

You will rarely if ever find my comments useful.  I am much concerned with encouraging weak hands.  You don't need or want that.  You are almost certainly better off putting me on ignore.

[aminorex]

Moderator action - this thread is now proceeding at a rate of 200+ posts per day and it affects readability.

I will impose a 10 posts per 24 hours limit on everyone, which lets everyone decide for themselves which posts are most important.

For those with an account less than 6 months old, the limit is 3 posts per 24 hours.

Although I like the high level of discussion, there is a certain amount of repetition here. This measure allows us to take some time off reading and writing to this thread, makes it easier for the lurkers to be up-to-date, and is not intended to lessen the quality at all.

Do I get credits for deletions?

[BitChick]

The reason is that people who buy on overstock or tigerdirect are just buying more bitcoin to replace what they spent.  They originally bought the bitcoin as an investment, they are excited to be able to use it for something, but they don't want to exit their position.

I always buy back the same or exceeding the amount I just spent. It's a rule I've always stuck to over the years.

Yes.  We gave some away at Christmas and just bought back what we gave.  It is nice to end up with the same amount or more Bitcoin at this stage of it's growth for sure!

[AnonyMint]

I don't like to post again, but it seems no one can figure out obvious analysis without my posts.

I guess I am not surprised Risto that you haven't figured out the math yet. I guess you just aren't that bright. I have had many indications of it.

It BTC was a unit-of-account at merchants, then all BTC spends at merchants would never enter the market as asks for fiat.

The fiat bidding to invest in BTC is not increased by those Bitpay transactions, thus there is an increase in asks / bid ratio. Thus price must goes down in order to balance.

Only a dunce can't do that math.

I guess also you don't know how to do compounding. Otherwise you would have easily calculated that Bitpay is growing much faster than adoption. 3X per month! (that will slow as small things grow faster and that was Xmas surge, nevertheless it is still growing faster than adoption)

Bitcoin is slave to fiat for as long as the merchants predominantly want fiat, because this drains fiat from the ecosystem as investors bring fiat into the ecosystem.

Boycotting merchants who don't use BTC as their unit-of-account would prevent mass adoption. Thus we can now be sure that BTC is converting itself to fiat. And anyone supporting BTC and claiming it helps us get away from fiat is just full of BS.

I am tired of you Risto. You are a threat to humanity. Go ahead with your incessant pushing of Bitcoin. I am very disappointed in you. I thought you were a genuine defender of liberty. Instead you are only interested in wealth. Thanks for letting me speak, but I am not interested in you any more. I have deleted you from Skype and deleted my CryptoCrypt account.

znaky, how do you know I haven't used BTC to buy things with merchants that take Bitpay? How do you think I could otherwise anonymously purchased the domains for an altcoin. I guess there are anonymous Visa debt cards, but would be much more hassle. Didn't think of that huh before you started your ad hominem diatribe.

Seems the emotional and defensive card has been passed along...

What the hell is wrong with you people? Did you graduate from kindergarten.

If there are any adults who are interested in defending liberty, then you are welcome to help those of us who are serious. I don't have any more time trying to convert those who deserve their fate.

The reason is that people who buy on overstock or tigerdirect are just buying more bitcoin to replace what they spent.  They originally bought the bitcoin as an investment, they are excited to be able to use it for something, but they don't want to exit their position.

I don't have any solid numbers to support this assertion, but I don't think anyone does.  The takeaway is that the selling pressure is lower when you take into account the behavior of current retail bitcoin customers.

You don't have any data. I have spent 2 or 3 BTC and did not replace it. Occam's Razor says it is not likely that it is isn't lossy in spite of the best intentions.

Besides even if you are 100% correct, your point is irrelevant. If those merchants were increasing their savings of BTC instead, then there would be more upwards pressure on the fiat price of BTC.

Also remember M x V = P x Q. Thus increasing V increases P or Q (in our case we want Q which is quantity of merchants who hold BTC). You make the mistake of thinking value come from a equilibrium of stock. Rather value comes from flows. If the flows are actually occurring in the fiat, then the value from those flows is lost from BTC because there isn't an apparency of more money stock (M x V). Risto apparently can't do this level of math. In short, we increase the # of merchants who accept fiat, not who accept BTC. The switcheroo will later be trivial.


And there was also the issue that miners have razor thin margins now and must convert more to fiat.


The bigger issue is that we are building a merchant base that converts everything to fiat. This is what you are incentivizing. And it is compounding faster than adoption. Once you have a single service provider controlling all merchants, then no altcoin can be accepted (once they do the blacklisting on coins that don't carry full identity). And that provider will be controlled by the government. You say you want to get away from Paypal, then you hand control right back to Peter Thiel again.

Just go ahead 'tards to your centralized hell.

Any one serious about liberty is welcome to come help on something serious. Not this BS.

[rjp55]

I don't like to post again, but it seems no one can figure out obvious analysis without my posts.

I guess I am not surprised Risto that you haven't figured out the math yet. I guess you just aren't that bright. I have had many indications of it.

It BTC was a unit-of-account at merchants, then all BTC spends would never enter the market as asks for fiat.

The fiat bidding to invest in BTC is not increased by those Bitpay transactions, thus there is an increase in asks / bid ratio. Thus price must goes down in order to balance.

Only a dunce can't do that math.

znaky, how do you know I haven't used BTC to buy things with merchants that take Bitpay? How do you think I could otherwise anonymously purchased the domains for an altcoin. I guess there are anonymous Visa debt cards, but would be much more hassle. Didn't think of that huh before you started your ad hominem diatribe.

Seems the emotional and defensive card has been passed along...

[CoinCube]

The crucial thing is, that aminorex has been persistently wrong on the one thing I care about the most when reading this forum.

I rarely comment on short term price movements, which I think is your primary if not exclusive interest.  I am not consistently wrong on that when I do.  If I were, I would long since have learned to autofade.  

You will rarely if ever find my comments useful.  I am much concerned with encouraging weak hands.  You don't need or want that.  You are almost certainly better off putting me on ignore.

As a neutral third party I personally find both aminorex's and MatTheCat's posts valuable and interesting. The focus is entirely different long terms predictive models versus short term daytrading which I suppose accounts for the bizarre animosity.

My message to the two of you would be to both keep up what you are doing as I enjoy your posts. However, maybe putting each other on ignore might not be such a bad idea    

[AlexGR]

Boycotting merchants who don't use BTC as their unit-of-account will prevent mass adoption. Thus we can now be sure that BTC is converting itself to fiat. And anyone supporting BTC and claiming it helps us get away from fiat is just full of BS.

It will depend on the quality of fiat. For the majority of the countries out there BTC is better than hard currency like the USD or EUR, because in many cases they have restrictions regarding foreign exchange. Convertibility to better quality fiat, which is regarded as "stable", is another issue though. But EU and USA are like 1/10th of the world's population, not 100%.

[tarmi]

Any one serious about liberty is welcome to come help on something serious. Not this BS.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7BuQFUhsRM

[BTCtrader71]

... people who buy on overstock or tigerdirect are just buying more bitcoin to replace what they spent.  They originally bought the bitcoin as an investment, they are excited to be able to use it for something, but they don't want to exit their position. ... The takeaway is that the selling pressure is lower when you take into account the behavior of current retail bitcoin customers.

I agree with jmw. Merchant adoption probably does create some downward pressure on the bitcoin price (short term only) for the reasons that were well-articulated in Vinny's article [1] (which is one reason why I brought it to the attention of this thread), but jmw points out why that downward pressure may be limited.

I don't think this was mentioned in the article, but here's another source of short-term downward pressure on the bitcoin price: I wonder how many early adopters are currently selling off bitcoin to cover unexpected capital gains taxes? I for one played around with arbitrage in 2013, not realizing that when I bought from exchange A at $200 and sold at exchange B at $210, I was incurring capital gains. (Luckily my base was 2011, so it's long term cap gains. And luckily I am fundamentally a hodl'er, not a day trader, so my cap gains was pretty small.)

[1] Finding Equilibrium : Searching for the true value of a Bitcoin
Vinny Lingham, CEO of Gyft
https://medium.com/p/ba5f3fcce103

[MahaRamana]

Bitcoin is slave to fiat for as long as the merchants predominantly want fiat, because this drains fiat from the ecosystem as investors bring fiat into the ecosystem.

It's not only "investors" that are bringing money in the system but also any person who is converting Fiat for bitcoin with the intent to use it to make payments. In this case it is closer to a currency conversion. If I sell my EUR to buy USD to buy something in the USA, I am not "investing" in the USD.

If people are happy with the way the transaction happened, they are likely to convert their fiat into more bitcoin for later use. Probably a bit more than they used last time because past experience increases confidence in the technology and perceived utility.

About the investors and their use of bitcoin, of course they are less likely to buy-back right away after a purchase at a time when the price is going down. For this reason the point of Risto makes sense in that it only makes the reversal more pronounced when all the people who spent coins feel that we have bottomed, price keeps rising and they have to panic buy.

If Bitpay grows 3 times faster than adoption, the question lies in the rate of replacement amongst the buyers with bitcoin. Do you know how the bitcoin position of consumers in bitcoin is evolving ? What if they would be re-converting as much as they spend ? Then even a stagnant adoption would mean a stagnant price, not an endless drop. And a growing adoption would mean a rising price. And what if existing bitcoin consumers are actually converting more fiat than last time at each conversion ?

The question is : do you have data that proves that the bitcoin going through bitpay are "getting rid of", as opposed to "being used and replaced" ?

[CoinCube]

Any one serious about liberty is welcome to come help on something serious. Not this BS.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7BuQFUhsRM

Thought would destroy their paradise.
No more; where ignorance is bliss,
Tis folly to be wise.
--Thomas Gray 1742


If you drop a frog in a pot of boiling water, it will of course frantically try to clamber out.
But if you place it gently in a pot of tepid water and turn the heat on low,
it will float there quite placidly. As the water gradually heats up, the frog will sink into a tranquil stupor,
exactly like one of us in a hot bath, and before long, with a smile on its face, it will unresistingly
allow itself to be boiled to death.
--Daniel Quinn's The Story of B 1996


It’s amazing how much panic one honest man can spread among a multitude of hypocrites.
--Thomas Sowell

[ErisDiscordia]

Any one serious about liberty is welcome to come help on something serious. Not this BS.

Liberty might be the only thing I'm able to be serious about. What are my options? I can't code, nor am I an engineer. So far my activity has been limited to traveling the world and spreading ideas of liberty and explaining crypto to people.

[Syke]

Bitcoin is wonderful for merchants (no chargebacks) but sucks and for consumers .

FTFY.