rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[infognom]

Im still suprised. Seem to have chosen a quite good line. This one is on the 1m chart.

https://i.imgur.com/rNiC4Td.png

[foody]

Im still suprised. Seem to have chosen a quite good line. This one is on the 1m chart.

https://i.imgur.com/rNiC4Td.png

Are you seriously just throwing arbitrary lines on arbitrary graphs?

[infognom]

Are you seriously just throwing arbitrary lines on arbitrary graphs?

Nope, i try to catch trends with them. A line is defined by 2 points and these points need to be placed at the tops or bottoms of the candles. Each and every additional top or bottom lying on the line is a confirmation of the trend. This is especially the case, if these additional points fit long after the line has been drawn.

bouncing on horizontal lines is "easier" because that usually relates to resistence-levels.

My line is not an horizontal one, the more i'm suprised i find so many matches, especially on the 1m graph.

So, foody, you're saying it's arbitrary, right?! Why?

P.S.: yes, volume is incredible low, so don't need to be surprised if things change rapidly ...

[AnonyMint]

It's the breakout

The shape of the low on April 3 would qualify as a U shaped bottom as I had called for. However, I was expecting a U with a much longer duration say weeks.

So I am not convinced this isn't another bull trap.

Any way, as you know it doesn't matter for me, because I showed with the log-logistic curve fit that Bitcoin will be drastically underperforming certain altcoins. The only reason for me to invest in Bitcoin is for diversification, but I diversify right into the coin which is tracked by my friendly Obama and I have no idea how bad what he has on tap against people of net worth. I heard from Armstrong that high-level sources say 70% taxes. That wouldn't be as bad as the totalitarianism that follows after imploding the economy with 70% taxes. I just offer this thought, "you didn't build that".

Still waiting to hear from Risto in a private message. His opportunity is slipping away.

[frienemy]

I heard from Armstrong that high-level sources say 70% taxes. That wouldn't be as bad as the totalitarianism that follows after imploding the economy with 70% taxes. I just offer this thought, "you didn't build that".

By taxing bitoin capital gains by 70%, wouldn't the administration cause quite a turmoil that reaches way beyond bitcoinland? It's hard to believe such drastic taxation will come into effect. I live in Germany and here bitcoin taxation is quite okay IMO.

The little video you embedded, I'm sure Obama did not want to say that regardless of what you build, you haven't contributed anyway. He just says if you lived in a desert without any infrastructure or access to knowledge, you wouldn't be able to build anything but sandcastles (and even for that you need water ) A decent welfare net is not the end of humanity. You can't always reward the sociopaths on top of the food chain (who appear there very frequent according to the statistics) The problem is how to make a decent welfare system that is efficient. Speaking as the tax guy I am, I don't think it is probable that bitcoin gains will be taxed by 70% in any country. But if you have insider sources, act accordingly, because that would mean a US bitcoin ban without officially banning it.

[molecular]

Im still suprised. Seem to have chosen a quite good line. This one is on the 1m chart.

you call that a line, bro? It's all jiggly and shit.

[mgburks77]

It's the breakout

The shape of the low on April 3 would qualify as a U shaped bottom as I had called for. However, I was expecting a U with a much longer duration say weeks.

So I am not convinced this isn't another bull trap.

Any way, as you know it doesn't matter for me, because I showed with the log-logistic curve fit that Bitcoin will be drastically underperforming certain altcoins. The only reason for me to invest in Bitcoin is for diversification, but I diversify right into the coin which is tracked by my friendly Obama and I have no idea how bad what he has on tap against people of net worth. I heard from Armstrong that high-level sources say 70% taxes. That wouldn't be as bad as the totalitarianism that follows after imploding the economy with 70% taxes. I just offer this thought, "you didn't build that".

Still waiting to hear from Risto in a private message. His opportunity is slipping away.

Pre-Reagan levels of taxation is the president's goal from what I hear.

When Reagan went into office the misery index, defined as the inflation rate added to the unemployment rate, fell from 19.33 when he entered the white house, to 9.72 when he left.

Not a fan of Reaganomics btw any means but those figures are quite instructive. Extrapolate using today's variables.

[cAPSLOCK]

This feels like a good selling spot ~459 for a quickish trade.  I will buy back at ~421 or so within 72hrs.

[rpietila]

This feels like a good selling spot ~459 for a quickish trade.  I will buy back at ~421 or so within 72hrs.

This is unbelievable recklessness. There is a chance that we have just now passed the bottom and that 421 will never be visited again. Even if it is, the gain is not too big, too many uncertainties, and the volume is not there - I couldn't even make such a trade due to low volume.

Quick TA update:
- 6H candle color/volume: not much volume lately hard to say anything, conclusion: can go either way
- Bid/ask strengh at market: slippage to sell 5k: $35, slippage to buy: $60, conclusion: potential for quick upside move
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.322 log units. The trendline is at $966 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (of all of the time between the 4/2013 and 11/2013 peaks, only 2% (5 days) was spent this low)
- Sentiment: I was out for 4 days, so cannot evaluate the sentiment now
- Prognosis: 400 is the critical level, if it holds, upside is sure - if it falls, there may be a flash crash to lower levels. Holding above it has in my opinion strengthened my bullish view, although the critics say it is just a preparation for an assault to 400. I don't believe the masses who sell at 400 even exist, and the trendline strongly indicated that this is a bottom.

[cAPSLOCK]

This feels like a good selling spot ~459 for a quickish trade.  I will buy back at ~421 or so within 72hrs.

This is unbelievable recklessness. There is a chance that we have just now passed the bottom and that 421 will never be visited again. Even if it is, the gain is not too big, too many uncertainties, and the volume is not there - I couldn't even make such a trade due to low volume.

Of course you are probably right...  As to the volume: the prevailing trend on volume is down.  I see nothing to suggest a change yet.  We still need to cross 4/15.

I wonder if it is no coincidence the Chinese picked the US tax day for their dropdead...

[serenitys]

I asked in the big thread and lost my net connection and it went poof on submit, but will ask here instead.


What do you all mean by the wall, support/resistance, dead cat, etc and can you be a bit more specific than general so I can compare to any given chart to understand what is being referred to (or if you have a labeled chart that would rock)

Is it possible (or desired?) to script these bots or theses market charts somehow to show what trades are what - as in labels or something that show when a buy/sell pattern is likely going to be bot trading, or to label the "wall" or resistance/support, or so on?

And is it possible that Chinese officials investors know BTC is the bomb and declare this ban or restriction knowing the general population will dump their BTC thinking it's worthless to them now in order to drive the price waay down to double digits, and then step in and buy a ton of them for their own pockets...then turn around and announce, "oops, webad, btc good, go on for it!" and let the people trade and cash out btc? Deliberate ploy to pick up BTC on the cheap and then inject it back?

[podyx]

This feels like a good selling spot ~459 for a quickish trade.  I will buy back at ~421 or so within 72hrs.

This is unbelievable recklessness. There is a chance that we have just now passed the bottom and that 421 will never be visited again. Even if it is, the gain is not too big, too many uncertainties, and the volume is not there - I couldn't even make such a trade due to low volume.

Quick TA update:
- 6H candle color/volume: not much volume lately hard to say anything, conclusion: can go either way
- Bid/ask strengh at market: slippage to sell 5k: $35, slippage to buy: $60, conclusion: potential for quick upside move
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.322 log units. The trendline is at $966 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (of all of the time between the 4/2013 and 11/2013 peaks, only 2% (5 days) was spent this low)
- Sentiment: I was out for 4 days, so cannot evaluate the sentiment now
- Prognosis: 400 is the critical level, if it holds, upside is sure - if it falls, there may be a flash crash to lower levels. Holding above it has in my opinion strengthened my bullish view, although the critics say it is just a preparation for an assault to 400. I don't believe the masses who sell at 400 even exist, and the trendline strongly indicated that this is a bottom.

How many days have we spent this low so far??

[BitChick]

This feels like a good selling spot ~459 for a quickish trade.  I will buy back at ~421 or so within 72hrs.

This is unbelievable recklessness. There is a chance that we have just now passed the bottom and that 421 will never be visited again. Even if it is, the gain is not too big, too many uncertainties, and the volume is not there - I couldn't even make such a trade due to low volume.

Quick TA update:
- 6H candle color/volume: not much volume lately hard to say anything, conclusion: can go either way
- Bid/ask strengh at market: slippage to sell 5k: $35, slippage to buy: $60, conclusion: potential for quick upside move
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.322 log units. The trendline is at $966 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (of all of the time between the 4/2013 and 11/2013 peaks, only 2% (5 days) was spent this low)
- Sentiment: I was out for 4 days, so cannot evaluate the sentiment now
- Prognosis: 400 is the critical level, if it holds, upside is sure - if it falls, there may be a flash crash to lower levels. Holding above it has in my opinion strengthened my bullish view, although the critics say it is just a preparation for an assault to 400. I don't believe the masses who sell at 400 even exist, and the trendline strongly indicated that this is a bottom.

Thanks Risto.  I think we are pretty much at "rock bottom" too, but having you say it brings more validity to my "feelings" for sure.  I am staying calm and even buying a little right now, which I had a really hard time doing last Summer when it got so low.  I was able to "hold" but I had a hard time convincing myself, and BitChicksHusband, to buy any more at that time.  Granted, we had little extra cash laying around to do so anyways so perhaps that was part of it too.  But I think I have learned from the past year how to manage my emotions when it comes to these swings, which is a huge part of how to succeed in this.  What is really weird is that I am not that worried at all and feeling more excited than anything!  I can't wait for the next run.  This next run up in price could be truly life changing for us (as for many that joined in last year).   

[SlipperySlope]

. . . What is really weird is that I am not that worried at all and feeling more excited than anything!  I can't wait for the next run.  This next run up in price could be truly life changing for us (as for many that joined in last year).   

That is exactly how I feel - not worried at all and feeling more excited than anything!

This next bubble will not be life-changing for me, as a lifetime of frugality, a good marriage, and compound interest have given me freedom for some years. But the bubble in 2015 will allow me to self-angel-fund my startup, and the bubble in 2016 will self-cover what would otherwise be VC round A.

Exciting indeed.

[fonzie]

Would it also be life-changing for you if we don´t get a new bubble and instead fall down to <100$ ?

[SlipperySlope]

Would it also be life-changing for you if we don´t get a new bubble and instead fall down to <100$ ?

Many others share the belief that the Bitcoin Economy has a binary distribution with regard to probability of success. Either Bitcoin entirely replaces the existing legacy, pre-internet financial infrastructure, or it entirely fails to do so. Fortunately, if bitcoin prices go to zero, it would not be a life changing event for me. Rather I would simply commit all my freed up time to my research.

For me Bitcoin is not the end, but the best means to an end.

[BitChick]

Would it also be life-changing for you if we don´t get a new bubble and instead fall down to <100$ ?

I had to "unignore" to comment, but if Bitcoin goes to zero, our lives will stay exactly the same with no change whatsoever.  Same job, same house, same lack of college fund for the kids.   Ever hear the statement "only invest what you can afford to lose?"

Some of us actually follow that principal.

[aminorex]

Would it also be life-changing for you if we don´t get a new bubble and instead fall down to <100$ ?

I had to "unignore" to comment, but if Bitcoin goes to zero, our lives will stay exactly the same with no change whatsoever.  Same job, same house, same lack of college fund for the kids.   Ever hear the statement "only invest what you can afford to lose?"

Some of us actually follow that principal.

Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose.

[BitchicksHusband]

I wouldn't say "lack of college fund".  It's just that they would have to go to a state school instead of private.  And maybe have smaller weddings instead of bigger.  No big deal, really.

[aminorex]

Suggestion for those tempted to short BTC in order to gain more coins:  Instead, take a moderately short position on the Russell 2000 for the next week or two.  Less risk, more upside.  Roll gains into BTC.