rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

Love this thread..  Bookmarked and following..


I am drinking Beer?  That ok???

Since the price is 420, aok!

[Trolololo]

There is this thing called "escrow" where bitcoins are typically sent first to a "trusted 3rd party", and once fiat is moved, the bitcoins are released. That is a hassle, I am working hard to replace it with a guarantee system, which would make cheating unprofitable.

Interesting concept, would like to hear more, as I am having this kind of issues on receiving USD (via cashiers checks) for property located elsewhere, would be fantastic if a system like this existed in BTC

More about it.

Coinffeine is developing something like that.
http://www.coinffeine.com/

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Love this thread..  Bookmarked and following..


I am drinking Beer?  That ok???

I'm drinking vodka, so I think that it's cool.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0q8Oho_RjM

[JHammer]

Love this thread..  Bookmarked and following..


I am drinking Beer?  That ok???

I'm drinking vodka, so I think that it's cool.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0q8Oho_RjM

 

[samurai1200]

Rising prices on falling volume/RSI in highly oversold territory makes me feel like a reversal is imminent in this little run-up we've had today. How likely do you guys think a double bottom is approaching? I believe there was some mention of it at the beginning of the crash a few pages back.

[jayspin]

Margarita

Love this thread..  Bookmarked and following..


I am drinking Beer?  That ok???

I'm drinking vodka, so I think that it's cool.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0q8Oho_RjM

Love this thread..  Bookmarked and following..


I am drinking Beer?  That ok???

I'm drinking vodka, so I think that it's cool.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0q8Oho_RjM

Love this thread..  Bookmarked and following..


I am drinking Beer?  That ok???

I'm drinking vodka, so I think that it's cool.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0q8Oho_RjM

 

I see your vodka and raise you a Margarita. At the pool. In Thailand.

[MahaRamana]

Some TA

Tuur Demeester is an economist and investor focused on personal and financial freedom and bitcoin, and editor in chief at Adamant Research.

http://www.coindesk.com/whither-price-bitcoin/

[rpietila]

Quick TA update:
- 6H candle color/volume: BREAKING - huge green candle beats the previous reds AND action afterwards is promising, conclusion: probability of recent reversal increased
- Bid/ask strengh at market: slippage to sell 5k: $45, slippage to buy: $65, conclusion: buying side solidifies
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.372 log units. The trendline is at $1,000 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom
- Sentiment: changing; I personally expect panic buys starting soon
- Prognosis: getting better; probability for dips gets smaller by the day, long-term buy zone

[rudius]

Quick TA update:
- 6H candle color/volume: BREAKING - huge green candle beats the previous reds AND action afterwards is promising, conclusion: probability of recent reversal increased
- Bid/ask strengh at market: slippage to sell 5k: $45, slippage to buy: $65, conclusion: buying side solidifies
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.372 log units. The trendline is at $1,000 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom
- Sentiment: changing; I personally expect panic buys starting soon
- Prognosis: getting better; probability for dips gets smaller by the day, long-term buy zone

Wow, that is unexpected. That is a brave call.
I m expected to revisit at least 400 to solidify. A big rejection of sub 400 level without news would be great. Could be in 2 weeks though.

[aminorex]

the big green candle was a china-driven reaction to the zhou xiaochuan comment.  i too think we have bottomed (p=.75) but ex-china sentiment seems negative. that is only mildly bullish because sentiment reversal takes time. it is only after the underlying hive mind crosses neutral that panic buying can become significant.  

[TERA]

Quick TA update:
- 6H candle color/volume: BREAKING - huge green candle beats the previous reds AND action afterwards is promising, conclusion: probability of recent reversal increased
- Bid/ask strengh at market: slippage to sell 5k: $45, slippage to buy: $65, conclusion: buying side solidifies
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.372 log units. The trendline is at $1,000 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom
- Sentiment: changing; I personally expect panic buys starting soon
- Prognosis: getting better; probability for dips gets smaller by the day, long-term buy zone

How extravagant.  This bounce was actually weaker than the last mtgox bounce.

10KBTC of bids are in front of the bottom  (vs 20KBTC)

It went from 340 to 440 [+30%] ( vs 400 to 610 [+52%] )

There was 64K volume on stamp (vs 120K)



There is a whopping 9.5M USD.

The trendline is an imaginary observation of the past based on guesstimations of a lagging slope and an arbitrary formula for an exponential growth of the userbase in which the exponent could easily be wrong causing a massive error.

[aminorex]

The trendline is an imaginary observation of the past based on guesstimations of a lagging slope and an arbitrary formula for an exponential growth of the userbase in which the exponent could easily be wrong causing a massive error.

thats shark jumping.  the exponent error point is the good point in your post.  i should like to take fits over time to observe the variance.  stupid tax deadline has me stretched tho.

[awesomeami]

We can't read that without registering, and we can't register without a reference.  Can I get a reference from you?  I think my post history here should show I'm sufficiently knowledgable.

Send me PM, please. Both of you

Can I get a reference please?
PM already sent

[rpietila]

Quick TA update:
- 6H candle color/volume: BREAKING - huge green candle beats the previous reds AND action afterwards is promising, conclusion: probability of recent reversal increased
- Bid/ask strengh at market: slippage to sell 5k: $45, slippage to buy: $65, conclusion: buying side solidifies
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.372 log units. The trendline is at $1,000 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom
- Sentiment: changing; I personally expect panic buys starting soon
- Prognosis: getting better; probability for dips gets smaller by the day, long-term buy zone

How extravagant.  This bounce was actually weaker than the last mtgox bounce.

10KBTC of bids are in front of the bottom  (vs 20KBTC)

It went from 340 to 440 [+30%] ( vs 400 to 610 [+52%] )

There was 64K volume on stamp (vs 120K)

There is a whopping 9.5M USD.

I follow the indicators I selected, and keep them constant. I want to add something to the discussion, not monkey yours or anyone else's methods.

The trendline is an imaginary observation of the past based on guesstimations of a lagging slope and an arbitrary formula for an exponential growth of the userbase in which the exponent could easily be wrong causing a massive error.

"The trendline" is a best-fitting (highest R^2) trendline among the ones in active use, over the dataset of typical/average monthly Bitcoin prices over all of Bitcoin's existence. Your plurality of negatives when describing it, makes me wonder if you actually realize there is nothing at all arbitrary in it. All arbitrariness starts when you consider, whether the best-fitting and longest historical trend so far has predictive ability, or not.

[rpietila]

the exponent error point is the good point in your post

I did not get how there can be exponent error if all you do is observe some set of data and draw a least-squares trendline, explain?

[Pruden]

The trendline is an imaginary observation of the past based on guesstimations of a lagging slope and an arbitrary formula for an exponential growth of the userbase in which the exponent could easily be wrong causing a massive error.

thats shark jumping.  the exponent error point is the good point in your post.  i should like to take fits over time to observe the variance.  stupid tax deadline has me stretched tho.

I don't know where I saw a couple of days ago the graph with the curve representing where the exponential would be taking in count only data up to that time. It has been remarkably close to current trendline for over a year. I think rpietila already said this when introducing his model and since then has talked of how little the slope changes month-to month but has not repeated it enough, apparently, given that it is a very strong point to which oda.krell raised an objection too.

[EuroTrash]

the exponent error point is the good point in your post

I did not get how there can be exponent error if all you do is observe some set of data and draw a least-squares trendline, explain?

Here some ramblings of mine, I'd like your thoughts on them.
We assume that a using a line on the logarithmic chart is correct because of exponential adoption over time. But what if the adoption is not exponential but only, say, quadratic, or even worse, proportional to n*sqrt(n), because of Meltcalfe's law?

Another way I think of it is that the time scale is somehow warped in the sense that there are events (eg Gox news) that cause a number of players to exit the market and then kind of bring us back to a time when we had less adopters.

Exponential or not, I think of mass adoption as something coming in subsequent waves.
Compare to the troubled history of file sharing: I think right now we had a Napster-gone-bust moment, and bitcoiners are almost criminals in the minds of ignorant masses. We know that cryptocurrencies are here to stay, but I am not sure that this was the bottom, and I'm not sure how long to next rise.

[rpietila]

The trendline is an imaginary observation of the past based on guesstimations of a lagging slope and an arbitrary formula for an exponential growth of the userbase in which the exponent could easily be wrong causing a massive error.

thats shark jumping.  the exponent error point is the good point in your post.  i should like to take fits over time to observe the variance.  stupid tax deadline has me stretched tho.

I don't know where I saw a couple of days ago the graph with the curve representing where the exponential would be taking in count only data up to that time. It has been remarkably close to current trendline for over a year. I think rpietila already said this when introducing his model and since then has talked of how little the slope changes month-to month but has not repeated it enough, apparently, given that it is a very strong point to which oda.krell raised an objection too.

Starting at 2009-01-03,
X-axis resolution daily.
Y-axis log(USD/BTC) (red line);
log(price)/log(trend_price) (blue line) <- trendline recalculated monthly; this graph uses 36 individual trendlines

2011 I bought at this point of the trendline (-0.35).

12/2013 decided that it will possibly go to about -0.35 but to be on the safe side I calculated 410 to be the buy zone in 2-3/2014 (-0.3 in 2014-3-31).

Now it strongly points out that we are oversold, since never before in Bitcoin's history has the price gone down from a condition this much below the trend. The price/trendline-differential has gone deeper but it has been accompanied with a rising price (11/2011-12/2012).

To underline the novel method used here: the trendline (not shown, only the price (red) and the difference of price and trendline (blue) are shown) is recalculated every month so that its parameters constantly change.

As far as I know, there is much critique against the trendline but none of it stems from understanding. The valid attack vectors are:
- Is the dataset reliable in describing the phenomenon? (yes; the very beginning is uncertain because there were not many trades, but leaving it out, leads to greater arbitrariness than using as representative the data as we can generate)
- Can it reasonably be modelled using the given trendline model? (yes; this is about technology adoption, which can follow logistic function)
- Is the trendline best fit to the data? (yes, its R^2 is the highest)

[Equilux]

The trendline is an imaginary observation of the past based on guesstimations of a lagging slope and an arbitrary formula for an exponential growth of the userbase in which the exponent could easily be wrong causing a massive error.

thats shark jumping.  the exponent error point is the good point in your post.  i should like to take fits over time to observe the variance.  stupid tax deadline has me stretched tho.

I don't know where I saw a couple of days ago the graph with the curve representing where the exponential would be taking in count only data up to that time. It has been remarkably close to current trendline for over a year. I think rpietila already said this when introducing his model and since then has talked of how little the slope changes month-to month but has not repeated it enough, apparently, given that it is a very strong point to which oda.krell raised an objection too.

The most interesting graph I have ever produced

I'm really curious as to what exactly I'm looking at

[EuroTrash]

You're looking at both btcusd price (red) and the difference between btcusd and an arbitrary exponential trend line (blue). The blue line must be as horizontal and close to zero as possible to validate the model.

EDIT: I see rpietila added full explanation now