rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Dotto]

339? 260??

I would love to get some coins at that price but it seems very improbable. We would need really catastrophic news to dip like that.

Im ready to bet with some of you that we don´t test <360 in the next 30 days.

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[CEG5952]

339? 260??

I would love to get some coins at that price but it seems very improbable. We would need really catastrophic news to dip like that.

Im ready to bet with some of you that we don´t test <360 in the next 30 days.

Funny, we've had a steady onslaught of good news the past month. And yet bulls have done zilch and are nowhere to be seen. Why do you think that is?

Catastrophic news could simply catalyze the move.

[windjc]

While a retest of 339.79 USD or maybe even 260 USD is within the realm of possibilities as a risk of being long, I see the risk for a short in this market is way higher. This market could also very easily run away to the 5000 USD range or even higher. This is simply a steady build-up of "good news" with very little impact on price, combined with a very tired bear. Anything could all of a sudden set the bulls off on a run. This has happened before with Bitcoin.

This is why I closed all my shorts. I don't see another bubble for a long time off, but an intermediate bull run into the 600s is possible. And, yes, really bad news would send this puppy crashing down to 340 and maybe below, but there is no guarantee that really bad news is going to happen. Right now the market is buying time for more fundamental developments and new exchanges to open. So I am about as neutral as one could be at this point.

[aminorex]

I am liking MRO more and more.  Definitely needs some work, but the privacy is much superior to any alternative.  Market seems to like privacy too.

[SlipperySlope]

This could be the long awaited breakout. 6 hour resolution on Bitstamp. Another week or so above the resistance trendline would be good.

[keithers]

This could be the long awaited breakout. 6 hour resolution on Bitstamp. Another week or so above the resistance trendline would be good.

you think so? This little price jump is nice, but I think everyone may be overreacting, just because the market has been so flat as of late...

[SlipperySlope]

This could be the long awaited breakout. 6 hour resolution on Bitstamp. Another week or so above the resistance trendline would be good.

you think so? This little price jump is nice, but I think everyone may be overreacting, just because the market has been so flat as of late...

What is significant about the price jump is that it went through the resistance trendline. Every single previous price jump since the November 2013 peak has failed to do so. This is the first one. If it simply goes back down to 430 or so, then who cares. But if the Bitstamp price can stay above the trendline for a significant period of time - that is important.

According to my logistic model, prices need to climb almost $10 daily to stay parallel to the long term up trend.

[keithers]

This could be the long awaited breakout. 6 hour resolution on Bitstamp. Another week or so above the resistance trendline would be good.

you think so? This little price jump is nice, but I think everyone may be overreacting, just because the market has been so flat as of late...

What is significant about the price jump is that it went through the resistance trendline. Every single previous price jump since the November 2013 peak has failed to do so. This is the first one. If it simply goes back down to 430 or so, then who cares. But if the Bitstamp price can stay above the trendline for a significant period of time - that is important.

According to my logistic model, prices need to climb almost $10 daily to stay parallel to the long term up trend.

Ok, now that makes good sense, thanks!

[rpietila]

My 2H-volume based technical trading algorithm made a call this morning. Switched from BEAR to BULL.

It had been a BEAR since 2014-4-16, at the price of $515.

I think it is about time for the rest of us to switch to bulls also. The risk/reward ratio from being a bear in these circumstances is declining rapidly.

It is possible that the deck was arranged for a dip last weekend (I also noticed it in the charts and warned you). But since nobody panicked, some of the players took action on the greener side.

I tried to send a longer treatise on the possible developments in price yesterday, but since I was on a cruise ship, the internet didn't work properly. I think I'll scrap that one, because of the indicator going long, and good news just cascading on the face of price being -60% below trend. So now I advice to buy for all timeframes from 1 month to long term.

[Syke]

I was on a cruise ship, the internet didn't work properly.

Aw, #firstworldproblems.

[segeln]

My 2H-volume based technical trading algorithm made a call this morning. Switched from BEAR to BULL.

It had been a BEAR since 2014-4-16, at the price of $515.

I think it is about time for the rest of us to switch to bulls also. The risk/reward ratio from being a bear in these circumstances is declining rapidly.

It is possible that the deck was arranged for a dip last weekend (I also noticed it in the charts and warned you). But since nobody panicked, some of the players took action on the greener side.

I tried to send a longer treatise on the possible developments in price yesterday, but since I was on a cruise ship, the internet didn't work properly. I think I'll scrap that one, because of the indicator going long, and good news just cascading on the face of price being -60% below trend. So now I advice to buy for all timeframes from 1 month to long term.

cross my fingers for that
it still might be a false breakout
where did you cruise and what ship?

[rpietila]

The trial round for the Price Prediction Contest, started in 2014-4-17 and ended 2014-5-17.

The price ended up being 448.39 $/BTC.

The participants received points as follows:

sgbett   1,7231
Trolololo   1,7231
bcdev   1,5213
chessnut   1,3533
Its About Sharing   1,2692
Guinpen   0,8154
wachtwoord   0,6809
pietje   0,6809
rpietila   0,5128
wilfried   0,5128
Bronstad   0,2967
elg   0,167
ArticMine   -0,748
HeliKopterBen   -1,7543
Superluz   -1,9746
ibuyltc   -122,8316     <- ELIMINATED (less than -20 points)

[Todorius]

My prediction from last week, that we might very well reach 500$ this week, looks better and better by the hour 
I love bitcoin. It never fails to surprise!

[zimmah]

My 2H-volume based technical trading algorithm made a call this morning. Switched from BEAR to BULL.

It had been a BEAR since 2014-4-16, at the price of $515.

I think it is about time for the rest of us to switch to bulls also. The risk/reward ratio from being a bear in these circumstances is declining rapidly.

It is possible that the deck was arranged for a dip last weekend (I also noticed it in the charts and warned you). But since nobody panicked, some of the players took action on the greener side.

I tried to send a longer treatise on the possible developments in price yesterday, but since I was on a cruise ship, the internet didn't work properly. I think I'll scrap that one, because of the indicator going long, and good news just cascading on the face of price being -60% below trend. So now I advice to buy for all timeframes from 1 month to long term.

I allready switched to bull a few days ago, and the current trend is reinforcing my stance on it. I also posted some outcomes I think are realistic possibilities and how they would affect my view.

Something like: (I don't know exactly)

If the price hits 500 at or before may 25th it's very bullish
If the price hits 410 at or before may 26th it's very bearish and it will need to retest 330
If the price stays around 450 at June 20 it's bearish and might also need to retest 330.

For now it's bullish and holding strong, even reinforcing itself.

[Hen0xyd]

First the linear broke on 15th April.
Now we finaly broke this 6-months log downtrendline, I feel pretty confident but I would appreciate 2 more green candles with volume !

I did some charts yesterday expecting this log breakout, let's hope the full picture will be the same:)
https://www.tradingview.com/v/zmcYjA0i/     (press play to load the real-time update)

As some of you are TA experts and got some experience I'd be glad to get your remarks about my chart,
=> especially about the SMMA & EMA crossing log resistance trendline. It seems it's used to announce the rockets launch on bitcoin.

[Carra23]

My 2H-volume based technical trading algorithm made a call this morning. Switched from BEAR to BULL.

It had been a BEAR since 2014-4-16, at the price of $515.

I think it is about time for the rest of us to switch to bulls also. The risk/reward ratio from being a bear in these circumstances is declining rapidly.

It is possible that the deck was arranged for a dip last weekend (I also noticed it in the charts and warned you). But since nobody panicked, some of the players took action on the greener side.

I tried to send a longer treatise on the possible developments in price yesterday, but since I was on a cruise ship, the internet didn't work properly. I think I'll scrap that one, because of the indicator going long, and good news just cascading on the face of price being -60% below trend. So now I advice to buy for all timeframes from 1 month to long term.

Maybe, but I still think there will be another dip below 400.

[SlipperySlope]

This rally is looking more like a real breakout above the resistance trendline that goes back to the November 2013 peak.

[Its About Sharing]

My Gann chart is interesting. Worked extremely well in the past for me. Note how we bounced just as we were about to hit green resistance. The black and red lines above would be the next resistance levels.

[windpath]

Watching you all hoping to catch a glimpse into the future...

Most of your charts are Greek to me, but this I understand:



Seems like the consensus is this may be the beginning of the next big climb?

[zimmah]

My Gann chart is interesting. Worked extremely well in the past for me. Note how we bounced just as we were about to hit green resistance. The black and red lines above would be the next resistance levels.

looks reasonable, but why linear?