Tell me if I am wrong:
So far, the only people this coin can well benefit in the near future are the miners. In all other respects (especially as a payment method), is there any way to win the race against BTC and LTC or even gain market shares from them?
Now your counter argument might be: why should we win a race? We can build our own market.
To be honest, do you really think this works? Merchants will accept what is widely adopted. This is BTC. People will accept what is widely adopted. This is BTC. Let's call miners another group in this game. As soon as ASICS conquer the whole market, they will turn to mining VTC. What is happening now?
By thinking through this process, it becomes clear that this must be a reaaaal long term investment (long term in the cryptocurrency world).
You cannot really open successful parallel markets with another cryptocurrency, can you? What is required to put VTC in a really successful position is quite a lot of transition of the whole BTC market to let's say VTC.
Hard to imagine. It will take time to enter the really important industries like retailing and so on. They just got comfortable with BTC and now you enter the door and tell them that there is a better alternative... Wow. So, I think we are very much dependent on the mining advantage. And this will probably take quite some time to convince they many people it needs to make this coin really take off. Wrong?
I hope we get that zerocoin feature implemented as fast as possible.
Of course you are completely correct., but your voice will quickly become lost amongst all the hype. The alt-coin market is not driven by a rational assessment of the future viability of each new coin: it is driven by the promise of instant wealth, and regret at having missed the Bitcoin boom. It’s driven by the desire that
this coin –
My Coin - will be the next Bitcoin.
This time, I’m not going to miss out, This time, it’s my turn. I got in early. And everyone better jump on board the rocket ship, because it’s going to the moooon!
Watch as a new coin is created from thin air, instantly met with enthusiastic acceptance and viral hype (Yes! This coin will be the next big thing!). Watch as people frantically mine and buy as many coins as possible (Better buy now, before the price goes up). Then, after the hype dies down or the coin is listed on a major exchange, see the price drop to the floor as the smart people sell, and the ones with dollar-signs in their eyes are left holding the bag. See the graveyard of dead coins, each with their legion of loyal devotees, still clinging on in desperate hope (Come on guys, this coin can still make it. All we need is for more people to hear about it).
The reality, as you understand, is that there already is a Bitcoin. To the extent that Bitcoin has built trust, stability, and recognition, it has done so slowly, and it won’t be easy to topple. It won’t be done simply by taking Bitcoin and adding a few extra features. ASIC-resistance is something that nobody in the wider world who may be thinking about using Bitcoin, is likely to care about or even understand. They are concerned about things like stability of the currency, risk, and legality. They want assurance that if they buy or use Bitcoin, they won’t lose all their money or go to jail. They don’t really understand crypto-currencies, and are scared because of the news stories about Bitcoin (Is it even legal?). And aside from all these questions, they need to see a real benefit for using it, aside from an ideological one, before they put their real, hard-earned money into it.
Bitcoin does have its problems. It is inevitable that if it continues to grow and become more accepted, it will eventually be replaced by a superior currency. But that currency won’t simply be a derivative: it would need to offer a lot to differentiate itself and become widely accepted. Things like POS vs. POW, Scrypt vs. SHA, block halving times and pre-mines are relevant to miners, but are largely esoteric to everyone else. What is needed is something a lot bigger. And when that comes, people won’t be oblivious to the massive amounts of money to be made, like they were the first time. It won’t be released as a fair, free for all, and the ground floor will be closed off to all but a few.
Until then, there is some money to be made by riding the dreams of the naive and desperate. Pump and dump, sir. Pump and dump.
